Fate of the States: The New Geography of American Prosperity

Home > Other > Fate of the States: The New Geography of American Prosperity > Page 21
Fate of the States: The New Geography of American Prosperity Page 21

by Meredith Whitney


  state government indebtedness, 80

  subprime mortgage excess in, 82–83

  tax rate hike, 9, 166

  tax receipt declines, 27–28

  tax receipts outpaced by spending, 62

  tax revenues, drop in (2008– ), 27

  technical/scientific fields decline, 28, 176–77

  unemployment, 28, 47, 63–64, 68, 80, 143–44, 164, 177

  unfunded pension fund, 102

  welfare assistance spending, 138–39

  California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS), 61, 190

  Canada, mortgage loans in, 35–36

  Central corridor states, 155–62. See also specific states

  agriculture boom in, 199

  bids to lure business/people to, 171–81

  consumer credit gains in, 76

  consumer debt, lack of, 84

  corporations moving to, 63–64, 156–57, 166–68, 170–80

  debt-to-income per capita (2011), 81, 162

  economic boom in, 63–64, 109–11, 155–62, 198–201

  education spending increase, 132–33

  financial stability of, 7–8, 29, 75–76, 109–10, 178–80

  as future economic leaders, 157–58, 198–201

  jobs/employment growth in, 8, 63–64, 155–62, 167–73

  manufacturing revival in, 8, 17–18, 25, 109

  oil and gas production, 158–61

  population inflow to, 27–29, 63–64, 110, 157, 163–64

  small business growth in, 162

  tax rate cuts in, 201

  Chicago, consumer credit collapse, 75

  Citigroup, 4

  Coal industry, 23

  Coastal states. See alsoHousing-bust states

  population flight from, 27–29

  real estate asset inflation in, 26

  Community Reinvestment Act (1994), 43

  Connecticut

  library cuts, 126–27

  population flight from, 176

  tax rate hike, 69, 176

  unfunded pension fund, 102

  Construction companies, unemployment problem, 80, 142–43

  Consumer credit

  creditworthiness and homeownership, 73–74

  new lenders, types of, 85–86

  unused lines as safety net, 76–77, 83

  Consumer credit cuts, 76–80

  economic disruption from, 7, 76–77, 79

  limit on access to (2007– ), 5–7, 10, 50, 75–77

  small businesses, impact on, 45, 79–80

  Consumer debt

  in central corridor states, 84

  credit cards, amount on (2008), 75

  debt per capita in states, 81, 83–85

  home-based debt. SeeHome-equity loans; Mortgage loans

  and homeowners, 45, 74–75

  most overburdened states, 6–7, 74, 80, 83–85

  Corporations, move to central corridor states, 63–64, 156–57, 166–68, 170–80

  Cotton production, 20

  Countrywide, 40, 41–42

  Credit, consumer. See Consumer credit;Home-equity loans; Mortgage loans

  Debt, consumer. See Consumer debt

  Demographics. See Population shifts

  Detroit

  boom-and-bust cycle, 23–25

  population flight from, 181

  Dot-com crash, 37–38, 59

  Down payments, 33

  Downsizing, as financial rescue, 145–46, 150

  Dumb money, 167

  Economic multiplier effect, 43–44, 50, 80

  Education cuts, 119–24. See also specific states

  extent in U.S., 73, 119–20

  forms of, 58, 121–22

  higher education, as discretionary expense, 119–20, 122

  parental choices, 120

  and tuition cost increase, 123

  Employment. See also Job creation

  in central corridor states, 8, 63–64, 155–62, 167–73

  during housing boom, 43–44

  losses after crash. See Unemployment

  inright-to-work states, 166–67

  European Union (EU), privatization in, 147–48

  Fannie Mae, 36–37, 43

  Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), 36

  Federal government

  federal-to-state money transfers, 67–69, 70

  fiscal cliff, 140

  homeownership, promotion of, 33–39, 42–43, 50–51

  poverty-related assistance, 138–40

  Federal Housing Authority (FHA), 34, 35, 36

  Financial collapse (2007– ). See also specific topics

  and consumer credit collapse, 5–7, 10, 50, 75–77

  financial industry losses, 4–5

  and irresponsible lending practices. See Housing bust;Mortgage-backed securities; Subprime loans

  loan originators, collapse of, 41–42

  and poverty, 135–45

  recovery, regional differences, 8, 156, 165–73

  retirement plan losses, 94, 97

  and state/local governments. See Central corridor states;Housing-bust states; Local governments; State governments

  stock market losses (2008), 94

  and unemployment, 7, 9, 141–44

  Fire department cuts, 131

  Fiscal cliff, 68, 140

  Florida

  bid to lure business/people to, 174–76

  boom-time spending excess, 57

  consumer credit collapse, 75

  education cuts, 59

  financial recovery tactics, 175

  home price decline, 47–48

  housing boom in, 44–47

  population inflow to, 168

  poverty level in, 137, 141

  tax receipts outpaced by spending, 63

  unemployment, 141, 143–44, 169

  welfare assistance spending, 139

  zero state income tax, 165–66, 175

  Flyover states. See Central corridor states

  Food stamps, 138, 144

  Freddie Mac, 37

  Gambling, 69

  General-obligation bonds. See also Municipal bonds

  new issues (2010– ), 70–71

  Geographic mobility. See Population shifts

  Georgia, housing bust impacts, 87–88

  Ghost towns, 19–20, 25

  Global view

  homeownership/mortgages, 35–36

  privatization of services, 146, 147–48

  U.S. as global competitor, 17, 161

  Golden West Financial, 40, 41

  Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) rules, 53, 91, 95

  Government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), 36–37

  Great Depression, 6, 33

  Great Recession. See Financial collapse (2007– )

  Greenspan, Alan

  connection to securitization, 39

  interest rate cuts by, 38

  as proponent of ARMs, 38–39

  Home-equity loans

  during boom, 74

  inappropriate use of, 43, 46

  limited access, post–2007, 76–77

  small business use of, 7, 79

  Homeownership

  during boom, 43, 44, 45, 73

  and creditworthiness, 73–74

  economic multiplier effect, 43–44, 50, 80

  federal government promotion of, 32–43, 50–51

  global view, 35–36

  Home Owners’ Loan Corporation, 34

  Home price decline

  negative equity created by, 7, 79, 86, 108, 162

  and property taxes, 78–79, 88

  reverse wealth effect, 88

  states with highest rate, 47–48, 80, 87

  Homestead Act (1862), 32

  Housing boom, 43–47

  booming states, 26, 44, 82

  consumer debt during, 45

  economic era of, 25–26, 44–47

  economic ripple effect of, 43–44, 81–83, 143

  homeowner misperception during, 46

  ho
me price escalation, 44–45

  irresponsible lending during. See Subprime loans

  new homeowners, statistics on, 43, 44, 45, 73

  property tax increase during, 81–82

  and retirement age buyers, 18–19, 26

  state spending excess during, 9–11, 46, 49, 56–63, 81–82

  Housing bust, 47–51

  and consumer credit collapse, 5–7, 10, 50, 75–77

  home price decline, 47, 75, 78–79, 88

  loan originators, collapse of, 41–42

  negative equity created by, 7, 79, 108, 162

  progression of, 47, 82

  states, overall impacts on, 6–11, 49, 57–59, 88

  states negatively impacted. SeeHousing-bust states

  states not affected by. See Central corridor states

  and unemployment, 7, 9, 142–44

  Housing-bust states. See also specific states

  bankrupt cities/municipalities, 186–93

  debt per capita in, 81, 83–85, 162

  Greek crisis compared with, 116

  list of, 6–7, 26, 44

  population flight from, 27–29, 63–64, 157

  public services decline in, 9, 10–11, 26–27, 110

  states with contraction versus collapse, 87

  assubprime-loan targets, 7

  total liabilities (2011), 111–13

  Illinois

  consumer debt, average in, 169

  debt per capita in, 96

  education cuts, 123

  pension-obligation bond debt, 103–4

  tax rate hike, 9, 69, 173

  Indiana

  bid to lure business/people to, 172–74

  consumer debt, average in, 169

  corporations moving to, 171

  debt per capita in, 96

  education spending increase, 132–33

  financial recovery tactics, 145–46, 149–50, 174

  mobile capital investment in, 169

  privatization of services in, 145–46, 149–50

  Industrial Revolution, 20–22

  Infrastructure

  new, in central corridor states, 200–201

  privatization of services for, 145–46, 147–48

  Iowa

  consumer credit gains in, 76

  economic boom in, 109, 156, 180

  Jefferson County (Alabama) bankruptcy, 65, 187–89

  Job creation

  in bad economy, 202–3

  and job training, 144–45, 202–3

  and privatization, 145, 149

  Job training

  cuts to programs, 124, 140

  necessity for, 144–45, 202–3

  JPMorgan Chase, 41

  Kentucky, poverty level in, 141

  Las Vegas

  home price decline, 108

  housing boom in, 107–8

  population flight from, 181

  subprime mortgage excess in, 86

  Lehman Brothers, 47

  Libraries, cuts and closings, 124–27

  Local governments

  programs/services cutbacks, 55

  property tax hikes, 66, 69

  public service delivery by, 66

  revenue, sources of, 64, 66

  state government transfers to (2010), 67

  state revenue cuts to, 55, 64, 72, 110

  Lottery laws, 69

  Louisiana

  corporations moving to, 173

  economic boom in, 156

  employment growth, 169

  oil and gas production, 159

  personal income growth in, 159

  poverty level in, 137, 141

  Mammoth Lakes (California) bankruptcy, 114, 190–91

  Manufacturing jobs

  decline of, 5

  rise in central corridor states, 8, 17–18, 25, 109

  Maryland, tax rate hike, 69

  Massachusetts

  boom-and-bust cycle, 20–23, 25

  boom-time spending excess, 58

  education cuts, 58

  Medicaid

  federal aid to states for, 138

  increase in enrollees/expense, 59, 65, 119

  Michigan

  education cuts, 123

  emergency management measures, 114, 140–41

  library closings, 125–26

  poverty level in, 137

  welfare assistance spending, 139

  Mississippi

  boom-and-bust cycle, 20, 32

  poverty level in, 135–36, 141

  tax-supported liabilities of, 136

  Mobile capital investment, 169

  Mortgage-backed securities

  collapse of market, 3–6, 48

  creation and sale of, 2–3, 40, 82

  Greenspan connection to, 39

  Mortgage loans

  adjustable-rate. SeeAdjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs)

  Canadian system, 35–36

  interest tax deduction, 35

  irresponsible lending. See Subprime loans

  loan modification programs, 34

  postcollapse conditions for, 48–49

  in U.S., historical view, 33–43

  Municipal bankruptcy

  bankrupt cities/municipalities, 60–61, 113–14, 186–93

  priority payments after, 106, 186, 187, 192

  Municipal bonds

  bankruptcy and payouts, 106, 186, 187, 190

  defaults on, 114–15, 183–84, 195–97

  new issues (2010– ), 70–71

  payouts by state residents, 77–78, 198

  as revenue source, 65, 71

  Nebraska, economic boom in, 156

  Negative equity

  defined, 7, 108

  states with, 79, 86, 108, 162

  Nevada

  boom-time spending excess, 56

  consumer debt problem, 74

  education cuts, 108–9, 117

  home price decline, 87, 108

  home price escalation, 108

  housing boom in, 45–47, 107–8

  housing bust impacts, 108–9

  mortgage credit, limits on, 86

  negative equity in, 86, 108

  poverty level in, 137, 141

  state budget cuts, 55

  state budget deficit, 108

  subprime mortgage excess in, 86

  tax rate hike, 69

  unemployment, 47, 141, 143–44, 169

  unfunded pension fund, 102

  zero state income tax, 165–66

  New Hampshire, S&L crisis, 49

  New Jersey

  consumer debt, 80, 169

  education cuts, 123

  housing boom in, 45

  pension fund borrowing by, 62, 101

  property tax, highest in U.S., 164–65, 169

  state government indebtedness, 80

  unfunded pension fund, 98–99, 104

  New Mexico, poverty level in, 141

  New York

  fracking debate, 159

  housing boom in, 45

  pension fund health of, 102

  state budget cuts, 55

  tax receipts outpaced by spending, 62–63

  New York City

  consumer credit collapse, 75

  population flight from (1950–1980), 180–81

  public employees, excess payments to, 11

  NINJA loans, 41

  North Carolina

  corporations moving to, 173

  education cuts, 59

  job creation in, 202–3

  mobile capital investment in, 169

  North Dakota

  economic boom in, 109–10, 155–56, 180

  employment growth, 159, 161, 169, 199

  housing shortage in, 199

  oil and gas production, 155, 158, 159, 161

  personal income growth in, 159

  Ohio

  mobile capital investment in, 169

  poverty level in, 137

  unfunded pension fund, 104

  Oil and gas production, in central corridor states, 158–61<
br />
  Oklahoma

  corporations moving to, 171

  employment growth, 161, 169

  oil and gas production, 159, 161

  Orange County (California) bankruptcy, 186–87, 197–98, 201

  Pawn shops, 85–86

  Pennsylvania

  boom-and-bust cycle, 23, 170

  consumer debt, average in, 169

  mobile capital investment in, 169

  oil and gas production, 159

  taxes, low in, 168–69

  Pension funds. See Public employee pension funds

  Pension-obligation bonds, 103–4, 184, 189–90

  Personal income growth, states with, 159–60

  Plath, Tony, 42

  Police department cuts, 129, 131–32, 190

  Population shifts

  andboom-and-bust cycles, 19–20, 25, 169–70

  to lower taxation regions, 168–69, 171

  migration to central corridor states, 27–29, 63–64, 110, 157, 163–64, 177

  to Sand States, during boom, 82

  state tax receipts, impact on, 27–29, 63

  Poverty, 135–45

  breaking cycle, actions for, 144–45

  high-poverty states, 135–37, 141

  rate comparison (2000 and 2010), 142–43

  and unemployment, 137–38, 141–44

  Poverty assistance

  dependency created by, 140, 144

  federal aid/costs related to, 138–40

  program expirations (2013), 140

  states with highest, 138–39

  Prison system cuts, 129–30

  Privatization, 145–51

  arguments against, 149–50

  assets to privatize, 145–48

  economic advantages of, 145–49

  of education, 140–41

  global examples, 146, 147–48

  Indiana example, 145–46, 149–150

  job creation through, 145, 149

  of state park operations, 69–70

  of waste collection, 128–29

  Property taxes

  cap on, California, 61–62, 132, 171

  as factor in home purchase, 79, 168–69

  highest in U.S., 164–65, 169

  hikes after housing bust, 66, 69

  and home price decline, 78–79, 88

  increase during boom, 81–82

  as local government revenue, 64, 66

  and public services, 7, 27, 66, 128

  Public employee pension funds, 89–106

  arguments against high payouts, 91–93, 190, 192–93

  cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) on, 96, 97–98

  crowding out of state budget by, 92–93, 104–5, 115

  disclosure on unfunded debt (2008–2011), 91, 95, 101–5

  financing of, 97–100

  future scenario for, 115

  investment returns, accounting tricks for, 100–101

  pension-obligation bonds, 103–4, 184

  priority over other spending, 92, 115, 192

  reforms, types of, 102, 105–6, 184–86, 193

  responsible states, 102

  running out of money prediction, 96

  state borrowing from, 62, 65, 95–96, 101, 102–3

 

‹ Prev