by Andrew Small
81. Jeffrey Lewis, “China’s New Centrifuge Plants”, Arms Control Wonk, 17 Sep. 2013, http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/6826/chinas-new-centrifuge-plants, last accessed 18 Nov. 2013.
82. “Nuclear Weapons Systems in China”, Defense Intelligence Agency, Defense Estimative Brief, 24 Apr. 1984, http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/news/19990527/01–01.htm, last accessed 18 Nov. 2013.
83. Ibid.
84. Mann, About Face, p. 140.
85. Corera, Shopping for Bombs, p. 45.
86. Khan, Eating Grass, p. 175.
87. Author interviews in Islamabad, Jun. 2013.
88. “Pakistan Derives its First “Hatf” Missiles from Foreign Space Rockets”, The Risk Report, Vol. 1, No. 8, Oct. 1995.
89. Khan, Eating Grass, p. 238.
90. Ibid.
91. Ibid. p. 240.
92. Vikram Sood in Hsin-Huang Michael Hsiao and Cheng-Yi Lin, The Rise of China: Beijing’s Strategies and Implications for the Asia-Pacific, London: Routledge, 2009, p. 242.
93. Levy and Scott-Clark, Deception, p. 258.
94. Khan, Eating Grass, p. 238.
95. Ibid. p. 239.
96. John W. Garver, “Future of the Sino-Pakistani Entente Cordiale”, in Michael R. Chambers, South Asia in 2020: Future Strategic Balances and Alliances, Carlisle, PA: U.S. Army War College, 2002, p. 22; 405.
97. “Shaheen-II/Hatf-6/Ghaznavi”, Strategic Security Project, 10 Mar. 2004, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/pakistan/missile/shaheen-2.htm, last accessed 18 Nov. 2013.
98. Jeffrey Lewis, “Pakistan’s Nuclear Artillery”, Arms Control Wonk, 12 Dec. 2011, http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/4866/pakistans-nuclear-artillery, last accessed 18 Nov. 2013.
99. Levy and Scott-Clark, Deception, p. 249.
100. Jeffrey R. Smith, “Chinese missile launchers sighted in Pakistan,” Washington Post, 6 Apr. 1991.
101. Mann, About Face, p. 271.
102. Shirley A. Kan, “China and Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missiles: Policy Issues”, CRS Report for Congress, Congressional Research Office, 7–5700, 23 Dec. 2009, p. 3.
103. Reed, Thomas C. and Danny B. Stillman, The Nuclear Express: A Political History of the Bomb and Its Proliferation, Minneapolis: Zenith Press, 2009, p. 252.
104. Shirley A. Kan, “China and Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missiles: Policy Issues”, CRS Report for Congress, Congressional Research Office, 7–5700, 23 Dec. 2009, p. 5.
105. Levy and Scott-Clark, Deception, p. 173.
106. Ottaway, David B., The King’s Messenger: Prince Bandar bin Sultan and America’s Tangled Relationship with Saudi Arabia, New York: Walker Publishing Company, 2008, p. 69.
107. Ibid. p. 70.
108. Ibid.; Bin Sultan, Khaled, Desert Warrior: A Personal View of the Gulf War by the Joint Forces Commander, London: HarperCollins, 1995, pp. 139–41.
109. Ibid. p. 145.
110. Khan, Eating Grass, p. 383.
111. See for instance, citations in Levy and Catherine Deception, pp. 173, 225–6 and Lynch, Thomas, Crisis Stability and Nuclear Exchange Risks on the Subcontinent: Major Trends and the Iran Factor, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University Press, November 2013.
112. Ottaway, The King’s Messenger, p. 230; “Saudi Arabia Special Weapons”, Global Security, http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/saudi/, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.
113. Tariq Butt, “Nawaz visits Kahuta nuclear labs for the fourth time”, The News, 5 Oct. 2013, http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-2–206358-Nawaz-visits-Kahuta-nuclear-labs-for-the-fourth-time, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
114. Ottaway, The King’s Messenger, p. 230.
115. “Saudi nuclear weapons ‘on order’ from Pakistan”, BBC News, 6 Nov. 2013, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24823846, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
116. Gary Samore quoted in Ibid.
117. Jeff Stein, “CIA helped Saudis in secret Chinese missile deal”, Newsweek, 29 Jan. 2014, http://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-cia-helped-saudis-chinese-missile-deal-227283#.UuoRJKq3YmA.twitter, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.
118. Jeffrey Lewis, “Saudi Missile Claims”, Arms Control Wonk, 8 Jun. 2010, http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/2761/china-and-saudi-bms,last accessed 18 Nov. 2013.
119. Ottaway, The King’s Messenger, p. 231.
120. Kamran Khan, “Pakistanis say they are studying U.S. missile, Tomahawk was recovered after raid on camps in Afghanistan”, Washington Post, 28 Aug. 1998.
121. Sanger, David E., Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power, New York: Crown Publishing, 2012, p. 102; Mark Mazzetti, “U.S. aides believe China examined stealth copter”, New York Times, 14 Aug. 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/15/world/asia/15copter.html, last accessed 2 Feb. 2014.
122. “Saving the F-16 program”, U.S. State Department Cable, The Hindu, 30 May 2011, http://www.thehindu.com/news/the-india-cables/the-cables/197576-saving-the-f16-program/article2059826.ece, last accessed 22 Jan. 2014.
123. Perkovich, India’s Nuclear Bomb, p. 108.
124. Cohen, Stephen P., Pakistan Army, Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1984, p. 153.
125. Tellis, Ashley and C. Christine Fair and Jamison Jo Melby, Limited Conflicts under the Nuclear Umbrella: Indian and Pakistani Lessons from the Kargil Crisis, Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2001, p. 48–9.
126. Tom Hundley, “Pakistan and India: Race to the End”, Foreign Policy, 5 Sep. 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/09/05/race_to_the_end, last accessed 22 Jan. 2014.
127. Michael Krepon, “Pakistan’s Nuclear Strategy and Deterrence Stability”, Stimson Center, Dec. 2012, p. 9, http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/Krepon_-_Pakistan_Nuclear_Strategy_and_Deterrence_Stability.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
128. “Wikileaks: US on Indian Army’s Cold Start Doctrine”, U.S. State Department Cable, 26 Feb. 2010, released by NDTV, http://www.ndtv.com/article/wikileaks-india-cables wikileaks-us-on-indian-army-s-cold-start-doctrine-69859
129. Michael Krepon, “Pakistan’s Nuclear Strategy and Deterrence Stability”, Stimson Center, Dec. 2012, p. 9, http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/Krepon_-_Pakistan_Nuclear_Strategy_and_Deterrence_Stability.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
130. Quoted in David O. Smith, “The US Experience With Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Lessons For South Asia”, Stimson Centre, 4 Mar. 2013, p. 32, http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/David_Smith_Tactical_Nuclear_Weapons.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
131. Shashank Joshi, “Pakistan’s Tactical Nuclear Nightmare: Déjà vu?”, Washington Quarterly, Summer 2013, p. 165, http://csis.org/files/publication/TWQ_13Summer_Joshi.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
132. Michael Krepon, “The Arms Crawl that Wasn’t”, Arms Control Wonk, 2 Nov. 2011, http://krepon.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/3265/the-arms-crawl-that-wasn’t, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
3. RE-HYPHENATING INDIA
1. Reproduced in Dixit, J.N., India-Pakistan in War and Peace, New York: Routledge, 2002, pp. 148–9.
2. Jiang Zemin, “Carrying Forward Generations of Friendly and Good-Neighbourly Relations and Endeavouring Towards a Better Tomorrow for All”, Address to the Pakistani Senate, Dec. 1996, reproduced in Noor ul- Haq, China-Pakistan Relations: A Profile of Friendship, available at http:// www.ipripak.org/factfiles/ff60.shtml, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.
3. Li Keqiang, “Seize the New Opportunities in India-China Cooperation”, speech at the Indian Council of World Affairs, 21 May 2013, available at, http://www.ipripak.org/factfiles/ff60.shtml, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.
4. Riaz Mohammad Khan, “Pakistan-China Relations: An Overview” in “60 Years Of Pakistan-China Relations”, Pakistan Horizon, Vol. 64, No. 4, Oct. 2011; Masood Khalid, “Pakistan-China relations: an exemplary friendship”, Daily Times, 22 May 2013, http://archives.dailytimes.com.pk/editorial/22-May-2013/view-pakistan-china-relations-an-exemplary-friendshi
p-masoodkhalid, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
5. Eisenman, Joshua, Eric Heginbotham and Derek Mitchell, China and the Developing World: Beijing’s Strategy for the Twenty-First Century, Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe/East Gate Books, 2007, p. 146; Murray Scot Tanner, Kerry B. Dumbaugh and Ian M. Easton, “Distracted Antagonists, Wary Partners: China and India Assess their Security Relations”, CNA China Studies, Sep. 2011, pp. 9–12, http://www.cna.org/sites/default/files/research/Distracted%20Antagonists%2C%20Wary%20Partners%20D0025816%20A1.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
6. Garver, John W., Protracted Contest: Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Twentieth Century, Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2001, p. 6.
7. Robert S. Ross, “The 1995–1996 Taiwan Strait Confrontation Coercion, Credibility, and the Use of Force”, International Security, 25:2, Fall 2000, p. 1, http://ppe.wiki.hci.edu.sg/file/view/ross3.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
8. Scott, David, China Stands Up: The PRC and the International System, New York: Routledge, 2007, p. 86.
9. “China makes nuclear pledge as it signs border deal with India”, Agence France Presse, 29 Nov. 1996.
10. Jiang Zemin, Address to the Pakistani Senate, Dec. 1996.
11. Garver, Protracted Contest, p. 231.
12. Then US ambassador to Pakistan Thomas Simons Jr., quoted in Aparna Pande, Explaining Pakistan’s Foreign Policy: Escaping India, New York: Routledge, 2011, p. 128.
13. Author interviews in Islamabad, Jun. 2013.
14. Perkovich, George, India’s Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation, Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1999, p. 191.
15. Tellis, Ashley, India as a New Global Power: An Action Agenda for the United States, Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005, p. 50.
16. Jayshree Bajoria and Esther Pan, “The U.S.-India Nuclear Deal”, Council on Foreign Relations, 5 Nov. 2010, http://www.cfr.org/india/us-india-nuclear-deal/p9663, last accessed 20 Nov. 2013.
17. Indrani Bagchi, “Austria, Ireland against NSG waiver for India”, Times of India, 6 Sep. 2008, http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2008–09–06/india/27892506_1_proliferation-full-civil-nuclear-cooperation-global-nuclear-commerce, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014; R. Jeffrey Smith and Joby Warrick, “What Happens in Vienna …”, Arms Control Wonk, 12 Sep. 2008, http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/2039/what-happened-friday-night, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
18. Author interviews in Washington, Jun. 2013.
19. Rice, Condoleezza, No Higher Honor: A Memoir of My Years in Washington, New York: Random House, 2012, p. 698.
20. Clark T. Randt, Jr. “Ambassador Presses MFA AFM Liu On Nuclear Suppliers Group Draft Exception For India”, U.S. State Department Cable, 3 Sep. 2008, https://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08BEIJING3401_a.html, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.
21. Siddarth Varadarajan, “Inscrutable Chinese Behaviour at NSG Meet in Vienna”, Mainstream Weekly, Vol. XLVI, No. 40, 20 Sep. 2008, http://www.mainstreamweekly.net/article940.html, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.
22. “Indo-US Nuclear Deal at the Nuclear Suppliers Group”, seminar report, Institute of Peace Conflict Studies, 17 Sep. 2008, http://www.ipcs.org/seminar/india/indo-us-nuclear-deal-at-the-nuclear-suppliers-group-619.html,last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.
23. Siddarth Varadarajan, “Inscrutable Chinese Behaviour at NSG Meet in Vienna”, Mainstream Weekly, Vol. XLVI, No. 40, 20 September 2008, http://www.mainstreamweekly.net/article940.html, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.
24. “China showing ‘flexibility’ on border talks with India”, Times of India, 29 Sep. 2008; Harsh V. Pant, “China and India: A Rivalry Takes Shape”, E-Notes, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Jun. 2011, p. 5, http://www.fpri.org/enotes/201106.pant.china_india.pdf, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
25. Somini Sengupta and Mark Mazzetti, “Atomic club votes to end restrictions on India”, New York Times, 6 Sep. 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/world/asia/07india.html?pagewanted=all, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
26. “India conveys unhappiness to China over its role in NSG”, Outlook India, 8 Sep. 2008, http://news.outlookindia.com/items.aspx?artid=606511,27 Jan. 2014.
27. Author interviews in Beijing, 2005–08.
28. Author interviews in Beijing, 2005–06.
29. Tellis, India as a New Global Power, p. 25; Robert D. Blackwill, “A new deal for New Delhi”, Wall Street Journal, 21 March 2005, http://belfercenter.hks.harvard.edu/publication/1403/new_deal_for_new_delhi.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
30. Tellis, India as a New Global Power, p. 9.
31. Lora Saalman, “Divergence Similarity and Symmetry in Sino-Indian Threat Perceptions”, Journal of International Affairs, Spring/Summer 2011, Vol. 64, No. 2, pp. 187 and 190.
32. Shyam Saran, “Is India’s Nuclear Deterrent Credible?” (Speech at the India Habitat Centre, New Delhi, 24 Apr. 2013), http://southasiamonitor.org/detail.php?type=pers&nid=4987, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.
33. Ananth Krishnan, “India, China renew push to bridge deficit ahead of trade talks”, The Hindu, 27 Oct. 2012, http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/india-china-renew-push-to-bridge-deficit-ahead-of-trade-talks/article4038531.ece, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
34. “Copenhagen brought change of climate in Sino-India ties: Ramesh”, The Hindu, 11 Apr. 2010, http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article394433.ece, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
35. Paul Blustein, “The Nine-Day Misadventure of the Most Favoured Nations”, Brookings Institution, Jul. 2008, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Research/Files/Articles/2008/12/05%20trade%20blustein/1205_trade_blustein.PDF, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
36. Cited in Samudra Manthan and Raja Mohan, Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Indo-Pacific, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, loc, 485/6659 [IPAD 3rd Generation; MD366LL/A version]; Jalal Alamgir, India’s Open-Economy Policy: Globalism, Rivalry, Continuity, Routledge, 2009, p. 58.
37. Brahma Chellaney, “Border-talks charade”, Mail Today, 29 Nov. 2013, http://chellaney.net/2013/11/28/border-talks-charade/, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.
38. Author interviews in Beijing, 2004–2013.
39. Zhang Feng, “China’s New Thinking on Alliances”, Survival, Oct.-Nov. 2012, http://www.iiss.org/en/publications/survival/sections/2012–23ab/survival—global-politics-and-strategy-october-november-2012-fda3/54–5–09-zhang-dd4b, last accessed 20 Nov. 2013.
40. Ashley Tellis, “The Merits of Dehyphenation: Explaining U.S. Success in Engaging India and Pakistan”, Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2008, https://csis.org/files/publication/twq08autumntellis.pdf, last accessed 20 Dec. 2013.
41. Sarah Parnass, “Hillary Clinton urges India to lead in China’s neighbourhood”, ABC News, 20 Jul. 2011, http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/07/hillary-clinton-urges-india-to-lead-in-chinas-neighborhood/,last accessed 20 Dec. 2013.
42. Zhao Suisheng, Chinese Foreign Policy: Pragmatism and Strategic Behaviour, Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe/East Gate Books, 2004, p. 189.
43. “China is threat No. 1, says Fernandes”, Hindustan Times, 3 May 1998.
44. Perkovich, India’s Nuclear Bomb, p. 419.
45. Atal Bihari Vajpayee, then Prime Minister of India, in a letter to Bill Clinton, then-U.S. President, reproduced in “Nuclear anxiety; Indian’s letter to Clinton on the nuclear testing”, New York Times, 13 May 1998, http://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/13/world/nuclear-anxiety-indian-s-letter-toclinton-on-the-nuclear-testing.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
46. Erik Eckholm, “China is ‘seriously concerned’ but restrained in its criticisms”, New York Times, 13 May 1998, http://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/13/world/nuclear-anxiety-reaction-china-seriously-concerned-but-restrained-its-criticism.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2013.
47. Justin Jin, “China, gloves off, attacks India”, Reuters, 14 May 1998.
48. “India’s nuclear tests show fear of China”, Wall Street Journal, 15 May 1998.
49. Li Wenyun, “India: nuclear tests condemned, lobbying suffers setbacks”, People’s Daily, 28 Ju
n. 1998.
50. Author interview with former Chinese official in Beijing, Jan. 2009.
51. “Pakistani envoy sees eye to eye with China”, Reuters, 19 May 1998.
52. Stephen Kinzer, “China may give Pakistan defense assurances, averting A-tests”, New York Times, 19 May 1998, http://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/19/world/china-may-give-pakistan-defense-assurances-averting-a-tests.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
53. Quoted under condition of anonymity in Elisabeth Rosenthal, “Chinese delegation seems to deny Pakistan a nuclear umbrella”, New York Times, 21 May 1998, http://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/21/world/chinese-delegation-seems-to-deny-pakistan-a-nuclear-umbrella.html, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
54. John Cherian, “Diplomatic Fallout”, Frontline, Vol. 15, No. 12, 6–19 Jun. 1998.
55. “Pakistan evens nuclear account: Sharif ”, China Daily, 29 May 1998.
56. “U.N. Security Council ‘deplores’ Pakistan’s tests”, CNN, 29 May 1998, http://edition.cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9805/29/un.pakistan/index.html,last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
57. Ibid.
58. Quoted in “Monitoring Nawaz Sharif ’s speech”, BBC News, 28 May 1998, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/monitoring/102445.stm, last accessed 27 Jan. 2014.
59. “US-China Joint Statement On South Asia”, statement issued by Presidents Bill Clinton and Jiang Zemin, Beijing, official White House text, 27 Jun. 1998, http://www.acronym.org.uk/proliferation-challenges/nuclear-weap-ons-possessors/china/us-china-joint-statement-south-asia-june-1998, last accessed 23 Jan. 2014.
60. Feroz Khan, Peter R. Lavoy and Christopher Clary, “Pakistan’s Motivations and Calculations for the Kargil Conflict”, in Peter Lavoy (ed.), Asymmetric Warfare in South Asia: The Causes and Consequences of the Kargil Conflict, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009, p. 64–91; Shuja Nawaz, Crossed Swords: Pakistan, Its Army and the Wars Within, Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2008, p. 507–514.
61. Lavoy, Peter (ed.), Asymmetric Warfare, p. 85.
62. Sardar F.S. Lod, “Indian Air Force In Kargil Operations”, Defence Notes, Jan. 2000, http://www.Defencejournal.Com/2000/Jan/Indian-Airforce.Htm, last accessed 26 Jan. 2014.
