"Right," Brad said. "Why should we jump to conclusions? We have, oh, 53 minutes left! No reason to panic!"
"I didn't say we shouldn't issue another warning!"
"Calm down, you two," Kai said as quietly as he could. Having them at each otheraEUs throat was not going to help them get through this. "Reggie, send out an update that we have lost contact with Johnston Island and Christmas Island, and we believe a large tsunami may hit the coastline of Hawaii. We recommend that people get as far inland as possible."
"Large tsunami?" Reggie said.
"OK, massive tsunami."
"What about vertical evacuation?"
In most tsunamis, the downtown and Waikiki areas of Honolulu were so densely populated that evacuation by road-or "horizontal evacuation"-would cause huge traffic jams, essentially stopping all motion on the roads and inhibiting the movement of emergency vehicles and buses. For those who couldn't evacuate away from the beach on foot or by vehicle, they normally recommended taking refuge above the third floor of a building at least six-stories tall because those buildings were sufficiently strong to survive the impact of a tsunami.
But in this case, the biggest tsunami was going to be at least the height of a 20-story building. People following the standard instructions would be sentenced to death.
"No. Recommend that people should get to high ground and that they may not be safe on high floors of buildings."
"What about calling it a mega tsunami?"
Mega tsunami, a term used by the popular press, had no scientific definition, but the generally accepted understanding was that it was a tsunami over 100 feet in height. Using the term themselves would be a huge step. Warning about a tsunami was one thing. Warning about a mega tsunami was unprecedented. The media would latch on to it like lampreys.
"Not until we get confirmation from NASA or the DART buoy. Just say that it's a massive tsunami and that we can't estimate the height."
"Gotcha. Helluva holiday, huh?"
Kai shook his head at the turn of events in the last two hours. It was astonishing how suddenly he could be responsible for saving the lives of hundreds of thousands of people.
Brad tapped him on the shoulder.
"Kai, I've got NESDIS on hold with Brian Renfro."
"Good. Maybe they have something."
"I also have Harry Dupree, George Huntley, and Mary Grayson holding. They called in as soon as they heard about the tsunami warning."
Harry, Kai's second-in-command, was probably kicking himself for being away during a rare tsunami warning. George and Mary, the two geophysicists on the other side of Oahu, must have heard the sirens while they were surfing.
"Where are they?" Kai was hoping George and Mary might be close enough to come in. Having two more scientists at the PTWC would be a big help.
"Harry's in the Maui County Sheriff's office. George and Mary are on the North Shore, at least an hour's drive from here."
"OK," Kai said. "They're not going to do us any good here. Transfer the NASA call over here, and tell the others to wait."
A few seconds later, the phone at the monitoring desk rang. As Kai picked up the phone, he motioned to Reggie.
"Reggie, once you've sent out the new warning, keep an eye on the DART data. Let me know the minute we start to get a reading."
Reggie nodded and started typing at the terminal.
"Hello," Kai said, getting back on the line. "Brian, you there?"
"I'm here, Kai. I've also got someone from NASA."
"Hello. My name is Kai Tanaka, Director of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. Who's this?"
A woman's chipper voice responded. "This is Gail Wentworth, the duty scientist at NOAA's Satellite Analysis Branch. Mr. Renfro said it was important. How can I help you?"
"It is important. The lives of almost every person in Hawaii may be at risk. I need to know if you have any photos or video taken over the central Pacific in the last hour. Specifically, at 1841 GMT."
"Let me see. GOES-10 takes images every 30 minutes. I've got an image from 1830 GMT. There's also the MT-SAT from Japan."
"No. You don't understand. I need an image from 1841 GMT or after. We have reason to believe a meteorite struck that area this morning, and that a massive tsunami is headed toward Hawaii."
"Really? You're kidding, right?"
Brian Renfro broke in. "Dr. Wentworth, we have a state of emergency here in Hawaii. Dr. Tanaka and I are not joking. I suggest you turn on the TV to CNN or go to the web, and you will see that Hawaii is currently under a tsunami warning."
"No, I've been watching. It's just so hard to believe."
"Yes it is," Kai said. "Do you have any images from the area of the Pacific with these coordinates?" He read Wentworth the longitude and latitude of the earthquake epicenter.
"The next GOES image is from 1900 GMT," Wentworth said slowly, as if she were used to taking her time discussing things, "but even that may not help you. I don't know if the resolution is great enough to see an impact like that. Besides, there's a storm in that area of the Pacific. It may obscure an impact."
Wentworth's pace was agonizing for Kai.
"We have 53 minutes until the wave gets here," Kai said impatiently. "Less to the Big Island. Are there any other options? What about the space shuttle?"
"Discovery is the only one in orbit. It's docked with the space station. They're over Egypt right now. As you know, the region you're talking about is hundreds of miles from the nearest inhabited island. A higher-resolution polar-orbiting satellite may have been over that region this morning, but it'll take me a little while to check and get any images we have to you."
"Please let me know as soon as you have confirmation. Minutes count."
"I'll do my best."
Kai thanked Gail Wentworth and gave her the email address where she could send the images. As Kai hung up, Reggie waved him over to his terminal.
"I'm getting the DART buoy data now."
Kai bent over Reggie's terminal, and he explained to Brad what they were looking at.
"This graph shows the displacement of the height of the sea level as a function of time. As the line of the graph goes up, the height of the sea level increases."
"How can the buoy detect a change in sea level with all the regular waves going by?"
"The buoy is just a transmitting device. The scientific instrumentation is actually on the ocean floor measuring changes in pressure of the water above it. Then it sends those readings by an acoustic modem to the buoy, where it links with a communications satellite. The wind-driven waves aren't big enough to affect the pressure sensor on the sea floor, so it normally only fluctuates with the tidal pull of the moon."
Kai pointed to an historical graph that showed the sea level height going up and down on a daily basis. "But if a tsunami passes over it, the entire column of water from the surface all the way down to the bottom is affected by the wave."
"Will you look at that," Reggie said, his voice weighted with awe.
The line on the graph had already started to climb. Kai held his breath hoping it would stay small, nothing more than a blip. But the line inexorably rose higher, propelled by the wave traveling 500 miles per hour. In two minutes, the line had topped out at 0.65 meters above mean sea level.
"I guess we're sure now," Reggie said.
"0.65 meters?" Brad said. "But that's great! Less than 3 feet!" His enthusiasm waned when he saw Reggie's grim face.
Reggie shook his head. "That's in the open ocean. In a boat, you wouldn't even notice the change in sea level."
Kai leaned back, finally coming to grips with the situation. "In the deep ocean," he said, "the wave goes all the way to the sea floor. Once it reaches shallow water, it'll start to bunch up, slow down, and grow in height. How high it gets on land depends on the run-up factor at that part of the coast. Multiply the run-up factor by the wave height at sea, and you get how high the wave will be on land."
"The run-up factor for Honolulu is 40," said Reggie.
>
Brad did a quick mental calculation. "That's 25 meters. 75 feet. Bummer. Still, that's smaller than 200 feet."
Kai shook his head. "A 75-foot wave is huge. Besides, that's just the first wave. There might be more. Maybe two or three more."
"The computer models from the lab at Los Alamos expected the first wave from an asteroid impact to be the biggest one," Reggie said. "But this has never happened before, so who knows? We'll know if and when we get the next DART reading. In any case, we have confirmation now, even without the NASA photos."
Kai nodded. "Brad, call Brian Renfro and conference him in with Harry, George, and Mary, then we'll put it on the speaker phone."
After a few seconds, they were all on the line, with one added person Kai hadn't been expecting.
"Kai," Brian said, "When you first told me your theory, I took the precaution of asking the governor to make her way to the HCD bunker. Even though the governor is still on her way, I asked her to conference in from her car."
The governor didn't waste time with chit chat, for which Kai was grateful.
"Dr. Tanaka," the governor said, "is this a false alarm?"
"I'm sorry to say it isn't, Governor," Kai said. "We don't have much time. I got you all on the line so I only had to say this once. We believe an asteroid struck the central Pacific about an hour ago, although we don't have confirmation from NASA just yet. What we do know is that a major tsunami is headed our way. And when I say major, I mean one that will make the Asia tsunami look like a kiddie wave pool. The first wave will be over 20 meters. If we get more waves, the max wave height could be over 70 meters, but we won't know for sure until we get the DART buoy readings for any follow-up waves."
"But you're sure about the first wave, Dr. Tanaka?" the governor said.
"Yes, ma'am. No doubt."
"OK. Good work on catching this in time. Brian tells me that it was a gutsy call."
"Thank you, ma'am, but we've still got a lot of work to do."
"I know. I'm getting off the phone now so I can mobilize the National Guard. You guys keep doing what you need to do. And let me know if you need anything from me. I'll be at the HCD in ten minutes." A click told him that the governor was gone.
"Is everyone else still there?" Kai said.
"I am," Mary said, her voice quavering. "But George got off the phone to call his mother. She lives near the beach in Hilo."
Kai looked at Brad, who shook his head. No word from Teresa.
"You should all take a minute to call your families," Kai said. "Mary, you and George are too far away to do us any good right now, so I don't want you to try to get back here."
"Dammit!" Mary said. "Isn't there anything we can do?"
"Eventually, we'll have to leave the Center and relocate somewhere up island. I'm thinking that Wheeler is the best option, so you can try heading in that direction. I don't know how long cell phones will work, but keep them handy. Harry, since you're already at the Maui Sheriff's office, you can help coordinate there. All we can tell people is to get as far inland and as high up as possible."
"Our houses will be hit by the first wave," Harry said. Every person on the conference call would be homeless in a little less than an hour.
"I know. And we don't have any time to get your personal stuff out in time. I'm sorry." It was the same story for Kai. Fifteen years of his family's memories would soon be lost forever.
"What about you guys?" Harry said, the concern in his voice apparent. "Don't hang around there too long."
"I will evacuate us in time to get to safety. But until then, we have a job to do and very little time to do it. We're going to have to throw our normal procedures out the window. At this point, all we can do is get as many people out of Honolulu as we can."
The clock on the wall said 10:32.
"Fifty minutes," Kai said. "That's how long we've got to evacuate over half a million people."
Chapter 21
10:34 AM
48 minutes to Wave Arrival Time
Honolulu had 48 minutes, but the Big Island had only 11 minutes. Brian Renfro knew it wasn't enough time to get everyone on Hawaii to safety, especially if they hadn't already started to evacuate, but they had to try. And they had one advantage that Christmas Island and Johnston Island didn't have: the Hawaiian Islands were built by volcanoes, so they were very steep. If people walked quickly or ran, they might be able to get to safety.
Renfro realized that every second ticking away was precious. The governor was still on her way, but he couldn't wait even the last few minutes it would take for her to arrive. He would have to make the new announcement himself from the broadcast booth. Time was so short, he didn't even want to take the time to write a script. He would wing it.
By this time, several others on staff had made it in to help him out. But there were still only six of them, so he gathered them around to give them the most important briefing of their lives.
"OK. Here it is. In 11 minutes, a massive tsunami will hit the south tip of the Big Island. In a little more than 30 minutes after that, Honolulu will be hit. I will be updating the warning immediately after I'm done here."
One of the new arrivals, Chet Herman, spoke up. "Shouldn't you wait for the governor…"
"No. She'll make another announcement later, but it'll be at least 15 minutes before she gets here and has a script in hand. As it is, we basically have to write off the Big Island. Nobody in this room should spend any more time on it."
There was murmuring at that.
"I know it seems heartless, but there's just not enough time to coordinate anything from here. They'll have to take the warning and do their best. We'll concentrate on Oahu."
Some of them nodded. They knew that 80 % of the state's population was concentrated here. With this kind of crisis, the objective was to save as many as possible. There was still time to accomplish something on Oahu.
The main issue at this point was whether people would pay attention to the new warning. Certainly many would be glued to their TVs to get the latest news, but many others would have simply heard the first warning and started preparing for a normal evacuation, missing any information updates. Of course, those plans were now useless, or even worse, dangerous. Many of the evacuation maps and protocols assumed a wave from an earthquake. But this wave was going to be larger, dwarfing what was planned for.
One of the new arrivals, Cathy Aiko, raised her hand.
"What do you want me on?" she said.
"Cathy, you need to call all the hotels and get them to evacuate the tourists. Vertical evacuation is out of the question at this point."
Hotels would now be clearing their lobbies and lower floors of guests, moving them to the fourth floor or higher. But a 200-foot high wave would come up to the 20th floor or higher, taller than many of the hotels on Waikiki. And there was no guarantee that hotels taller than that would be safe, either.
The newest hotels and office buildings were constructed to withstand anything that was within the reasonable realm of possibility, including resisting 250-mile-per-hour hurricane winds with no more than a slight sway. The lower floors would allow the water from a storm surge or tsunami to pass through the building and blow out the back wall, so that the water pressure would not put undo structural stress on the load-bearing systems.
But no building was built to bear the impact of a 20-story wall of water. For a wave that tall, the structure would have to survive 50,000 tons of pressure, the weight of 100 fully-loaded 747s. Most buildings would be torn apart or would simply collapse when the lower floors buckled. Fleeing higher in the building would be no refuge.
The obstacles to getting the population to safety in such a short amount of time were too numerous for Renfro to comprehend. After his announcement was made, many roads would become completely jammed with vehicles, despite their pleas to flee on foot. The traffic would make it that much more difficult for emergency vehicles and buses to evacuate those who couldn't walk.
Which led to the next
problem: evacuating low-lying hospitals and nursing homes.
Renfro pointed at the last new arrival, Thomas Kamala. "Tom, you coordinate with Queen's Hospital. They need to get everyone out. They might have a little more time. They won't be hit until we get a third or fourth wave. Make sure Tripler is ready for them. You also need to alert all of the nursing homes."
With over 500 beds, Queen's Hospital, located next to the Capitol building in downtown Honolulu, was the largest medical facility on the islands. Many ICU patients and premature babies would be on life support, not to mention the surgeries that were under way. They would all have to be moved to Tripler Army Medical Center, which thankfully sat on a small plateau northeast of Pearl Harbor. The patients who were not critical would have to be moved by bus, along with nursing home patients who were too feeble to move on their own. Others would have to be moved by helicopter.
The military presence on Oahu would be especially helpful in this crisis. The fleet of Army, Navy, and Air Force helicopters-as many as could get off the ground before the first wave arrived-and the numerous commercial helicopters on the islands would be pressed into service to evacuate the hospital patients and others who couldn't get to safety in time.
"Michelle, you're in charge of coordinating with the military. Get the bases around Pearl evacuated, and get as many aircraft into the air as you can. We'll need the helicopters badly, I'm guessing. The other planes can go up to Wheeler." Wheeler Army Airfield was in mid-island Oahu. Not knowing exactly how big the waves would get, even it might not be safe, but it was the only option.
"Ronald, you're in charge of the airports, Honolulu International in particular. Even though the Kahului airport is on the north side of Maui, it's also in danger because the wave will wrap around the island. You need to get everyone out of the airports. If there are planes all ready to go, get them in the air. But they don't have time to start boarding. We don't want to have them standing on the runway when the wave gets here."
"What about the planes coming in?" Deakins said.
Rogue Wave Page 11
