by James Rosone
He continued to watch as the conflict continued, puffing angrily on his cigarette. Chayko hoped his other columns were having better luck than his group at Mariupol. He walked over to the next group of monitors, which showed another armored column from his division that was advancing on Makiivka, which led to Donetsk. The Ukrainian military had focused a large part of their military operation and forces in this region, and he expected to meet heavy resistance if the government forces planned on fighting. He was hoping they would have taken the opportunity to withdraw across the demarcation line before they moved across the border, but after Mariupol, he couldn’t take anything for granted.
He had made sure this armored force consisted of additional air defense vehicles and had close air support aircraft overhead, should they be needed. He hated losing soldiers needlessly. He swore when he took command that he would do his best to look after them and provide them with whatever support and equipment they needed. This kind of loyalty to his soldiers was not often found in many Russian generals, but it had endeared him to his men, and they would fight like angry devils for him.
Media Madness
For all the political wrangling in Washington about Russian collusion amongst the Gates Administration and the 2016 election, the mainstream media seemed oblivious to the fact that a full-scale war between NATO and Russia could be just days away. When the Pentagon announced the implementation of Operation Reforger, the press ran with the idea as a political stunt that the administration was enacting to distract from the special counsel investigation and the ongoing controversy with General Chris Joyner. Meanwhile, nearly 60,000 reservists and national guardsmen had been activated across the country and they all began to arrive at their various reporting stations to draw equipment and prepare to deploy to Europe.
Equipment from the 1st Armored Division began to arrive at the ports on the east coast of the United States, along with the vehicles and equipment of the 4th Infantry Division. Almost without drawing any attention at all, the 173rd Airborne had already arrived in Ukraine, along with the 2nd Cavalry Regiment out of Vilsack, Germany. While some networks began to cover this massive increase in military activity in the US and abroad, few if any took the deployments seriously.
It was not until the fourth day of the “cease-fire” between Ukraine and Russian forces that the media realized something more serious may be happening in the former Soviet Republic. At a political rally, the leading Presidential candidate for the People’s Republic of East Ukraine, Alexander Zakharchenko, was killed when an assailant opened fire on him. The attacker was quickly captured and arrested, and it was soon discovered that the attacker was a pro-Ukrainian nationalist who, at one time, had run for mayor of Kiev as part of an ultra-rightwing nationalist party ten years earlier.
The death of Zakharchenko caused a slew of anti-government protests across eastern Ukraine. The attack was viewed by many as a blatant effort by the fascist government in Kiev to interfere with the election. Tensions were high.
Then PM Groysman made a televised speech that was carried on all of the major networks across Europe and the United States. “We will not recognize the results of Saturday’s election,” he announced. “We are one country, one Ukraine. We will not allow our country to be divided by Russia and their goons. We call on Europe and NATO to help keep Ukraine united as one country, as we always have been.”
Once the speech went live, many people suddenly realized the significance of the massive military deployment underway to Europe. The media was caught by surprise with the abrupt awareness that a conflict with Russia could really happen, yet nearly 15,000 US servicemen had already arrived in Europe, with tens of thousands more on the way. Networks suddenly began to rush dozens of war correspondents to Kiev in preparation for what might turn into a clash between the world’s most modern militaries.
Planning
Stuttgart, Germany
US European Command Headquarters
Joint Intelligence Operations Center
It had been a busy five days at the JIOC. Military planners were scrambling to get things ready for what everyone believed was an almost certain military confrontation with Russia. LTG Cotton was getting a situation update from Major General Mueller, the ground force commander at the Pryluky Airbase. “The 2nd Cavalry Regiment’s Brigade Combat Team (BCT) has arrived, and so has the 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team,” Mueller began. “Most of their equipment is being delivered in a near-constant gravy train of heavy trucks, Air Force C-17 cargo aircraft and C-5s. What was practically an abandoned Ukrainian airbase just six months ago has turned into a bustling hub of American military activity.”
“I have a concern, General,” said Mueller. “I think that my current headquarters element is far too close to the potential frontlines, should hostilities kick off. That puts 15,000 US and NATO members in peril. I’d like to move to the Kiev International Airport at Boryspil.”
“I understand the concern General Mueller,” Cotton replied. “Permission granted to move the headquarters element to the Kiev International Airport. How soon until you begin deploying your combat troops to the field?”
Once SACEUR gave the order to deploy, the 2nd Cavalry along with the 173rd, would move to designated marshalling points and await further orders on where to move to engage the enemy. This way, the ground forces would not be all bunched up on the bases should the Russians launch a surprise attack.
General Mueller turned and said something to one of his officers just off the screen, then turned back to look at the monitor. “I’ve given them the warning order; they are retrieving their munitions and ordinance now. The 173rd should have the rest of their equipment arriving later today. Once they’ve had a chance to get them offloaded and sorted, we’ll issue the order. I anticipate the units moving to the field on Friday, 36 hours from now.”
“Excellent, keep us apprised of any changes,” responded Cotton. “Let’s hope the politicians can defuse the situation before it becomes a shooting war. We are still weeks away from having most of the Reforger troops and equipment here.” Outwardly, General Cotton sounded confident. Inwardly, he was nervous. He was sure that the US and NATO Air Forces could keep the Russians at bay until additional air assets could be flown in from the States, but he was not as certain about the ground assets.
The Russians had moved several divisions from the 1st Guards Tank Army into east Ukraine, with the rest of them sitting at the edge of the border. Intelligence also showed that the 6th Army was conducting military exercises in Belarus, which everyone knew was a farce; they had moved so many soldiers and equipment to a border region, just as they were issuing their ultimatum. Cotton and Mueller saw it for what it was, an excuse to deploy them to Belarus and apply additional pressure on NATO. However, between the two Russian Army groups, they had a combined 225,000 troops and tanks, so even if it were a ruse, it could not be completely ignored.
Before signing off, General Mueller asked one last thing, “If hostilities do kick off, how long are my forces going to have to hold until additional reinforcements from the US and other member states start to arrive?”
General Cotton thought to himself, “That’s a good question—tough to answer given how fast things are starting to move.”
Cotton pondered his response for a moment before he answered, “If hostilities break out, I’m going to need your guys to buy us time. Give ground if you have too, but try and hold the line at Kiev. The SecDef has initiated Operation Reforger. The gravy train of supplies and troops will start to arrive in Europe shortly. I’m sorry, but that’s about as much clarity as I can provide you,” Cotton replied.
Mueller smiled before responding, “Well that’s about as clear as mud Sir, but I understand. We’ll do our best to hold the line. Just make sure I have plenty of air support, and I’m sure we can make it work.”
Election Fever
Washington, DC
White House, Situation Room
That Saturday evening, the people of east Ukraine
finished casting their ballots and the polls had closed down. The votes began to be counted and certified, all while under scrutiny of UN, EU, and Ukrainian government election monitors. The results were not even close. The people in the region voted overwhelmingly to leave the central government and form their own separate Republic.
Despite a lot of complaints being made by the Ukrainian government, the EU and UN monitors did not see any ballot box stuffing or any other nefarious activity that could have influenced the results of the election. There were Russian soldiers throughout the major cities, but none were within 100 feet of a polling station, which was a stipulation made by the UN to ensure there was no voter intimidation. There was no clear case to be made of corruption in the vote. Apparently, the economic aid package that the Russians had promoted as a gift to a new Eastern Ukraine had been enough of an incentive to entice people to leave what they felt was a fascist pro-EU government in Kiev--well that, and the promised reduced natural gas prices from Russia and the increased security measures that they offered.
When the results were announced, President Petrov made a public statement on state-sponsored TV. “Today, I congratulate the people of eastern Ukraine on their decision to choose freedom from the hold of fascism. All UN election rules were followed in carrying out this vote, so there can be no doubt as to the choice of the people. And now, it is incumbent upon NATO to respect the results of the election and withdraw their forces from Ukraine. This continued buildup of forces is an unnecessary provocation, which if undeterred, will eventually lead to conflict. I’d like to remind NATO that there are only 48 hours remaining to withdraw all combat forces from the east of the Dnieper River, and seven days to leave Ukraine all together.” President Petrov did not say what would happen if they did not leave, but with nearly 65,000 Russian soldiers now in east Ukraine, little was left to the imagination.
*******
The President’s senior advisors had been meeting for the past hour in advance of Gates arrival, going over the information that had been pouring into their offices and scrambling to develop a set of recommendations on what to do next. While no one wanted a confrontation with Russia, it appeared they were heading towards one. It was a dangerous game of chicken, waiting to see which nation would blink first.
President Gates walked into the Situation Room and everyone rose to attention. He waved them back down while he took his seat at the head of the table. Gates surveyed the room and could see the tension on everyone’s faces. The results of this meeting would change the face of Europe (and potentially the world), and everyone knew it.
The President opened the meeting. “Let’s just cut right to it. What options do we have right now? What are your recommendations?”
Secretary of State, Travis Johnson, spoke up first, “Mr. President, I spoke with the Russian Ambassador a couple of hours ago, and he simply reiterated to me that with the results of the election, the US and NATO forces must withdraw beyond the Dnieper River within 48 hours and leave Ukraine within seven days. Once those deadlines have passed, he said they will treat our forces as hostile invaders in a sovereign country that they are allied with, and they will respond accordingly.”
The room let out a soft murmur at this acknowledgment. Everyone wanted to avoid a conflict with Russia, but it was becoming increasingly unlikely, unless they wanted to walk away from Ukraine.
The President addressed the issue head on. “So, I want to ask everyone a question. We have deployed troops to Ukraine and are in the process of deploying tens of thousands of troops to Europe. Is standing up to Russia, right now in this situation, worth the lives of American young men and women? Would this war be worth our blood and treasure?”
The President let the question hang there for a minute, wanting to see who would respond. If he was about to commit the lives of American service members to a potential war with Russia, he wanted to know that it was justified.
The Secretary of Defense was the first to answer. “Mr. President, if we do not stand up to the Russians now, then when will we stand up to them? The Russians stole the Crimea from Ukraine under the Obama administration, and the US and Europe stood by and did nothing. We passed some meaningless sanctions that have had a negligible impact on them. The Russians intervened on behalf of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. The rebel army that was going to depose that dictator was systematically destroyed by the Russian Air Force while America and the rest of the world, again, did nothing. The Russians intervened in east Ukraine, fueling a three-year civil war, and now they are about to steal half of the country. If we do not stand up to Vladimir Petrov now, when will we? No, the Ukraine is not worth the life of a single American. However, stopping Vladimir Petrov from dividing Europe and the Middle East is.”
It was an impassioned statement by the Secretary of Defense and caused everyone to pause and reflect for a moment on what he had just said. The world was at a turning point. Either they would stop the Russians from dividing up Europe, or they would have to concede defeat.
Tom McMillan leaned forward in his chair. “We need to hold firm, Mr. President…even if it means going to war with Russia. This fight has been a long time coming. Petrov has been bolstering defense spending for nearly fifteen years. He has been building a modern army with one purpose, to rebuild the former Soviet Union. He knows we are at our weakest point militarily in decades. We have been fighting Islamic extremists for sixteen years, which has sapped our strength and spread us thin. The rest of the NATO members are in even worse shape. If ever there were a time to press NATO and America militarily, this is it.”
He had a point. The US and NATO were still fighting in Afghanistan, and operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria had been picking up in pace as Saudi Arabia led an Arab coalition (the US continued to provide intelligence and logistical support). Fortunately, the Russians had withdrawn nearly all their forces out of Syria in the past five weeks, probably in anticipation of potential hostilities in Ukraine.
The President listened to other perspectives from his senior advisors for quite some time as they walked through the various options and consequences to each of them. After several hours of heated discussions, the President felt he had enough information to make a decision. Looking at General Hillman (who had argued for military action) the President said, “General, I have listened to you make your case, and I believe James Castle and Tom McMillan have made a convincing argument for why we need to move forward with a hardline towards Russia as well. This may ultimately lead to a military confrontation with Russia, but as everyone at this table has said, if we do not stand up to the Russians now, then when? While the timing could not be worse, I believe we need to be decisive.”
Gates took a deep breath and then let it out slowly, almost not sure if he wanted to even utter the words that were about to come out of his mouth. “General, please issue the orders for all US and NATO forces to prepare for hostilities with Russia. Inform them that we are not standing down. If the Russians do not withdraw their military from eastern Ukraine, then we will treat them as hostile and respond appropriately,” he said, knowing he was issuing an order that may ultimately trigger the third world war.
The room let out a collective sigh and then there was a sense of relief. The decision had been made, and now it was time to execute. Everyone put on their game face, and then a flurry of activity began. The various aides grabbed their government-issued smartphones and started making calls to the Pentagon Operations Center and the various other agencies and major commands. As the President changed the DEFCON level from 4, to 2, he essentially placed the country at a de-facto state of war, which put into place a whole slew of protocols and actions. Though the US did not initiate the Continuity of Government (COG), the leaders of the majority and minority parties were being secretly picked up by the Secret Service and brought to a secured bunker to be briefed and given additional security.
As the meeting broke up, Secretary Castle left the White House and stepped into the up-armored Suburban that was waiti
ng to whisk him back to the Pentagon. Seeing that it was 10:45pm, there was little traffic delay. Castle sat in the back of the vehicle and looked out the window, contemplating the events of the meeting. “I think it was my statement that shifted the President towards taking military action,” he thought. “Did I give the right advice? Did I make the right decision? We are committing the lives of thousands of American and European lives to standing up to Russia…the responsibility of that feels like a ton of bricks on my shoulders.”
The vehicle pulled up to the side entrance of the Pentagon that was reserved for the senior officers and the Secretary. As he got out of the vehicle, he was met by a number of senior aides. He nodded in acknowledgement to them, and as they walked in the building together, he said, “It’s a go. The President has given the order to prepare for hostilities. He has also changed the DEFCON from 4, to 2. Begin to issue the orders and change the country’s defense posture immediately.”
The group of aides followed their boss as they made their way to the Operations Center, located in the belly of the building several floors below. As the SecDef walked into the room, everyone stood to attention and waited to be told to resume. Castle walked to the head of the table, and then announced, “At ease, everyone take your seats.”
The people in the room all filed into their chairs at the table in a very quick and orderly fashion. “Listen up everyone,” began Castle. The room suddenly became quiet enough to hear a pin drop; all eyes were turned to the SecDef. “The President has issued the order to prepare for hostilities with Russia. As of this moment, the leaders of the majority and minority parties are being briefed on the decision. We are also moving to DEFCON 2 per Presidential directive. I want our nuclear bombers placed on standby and our Ohio class submarines to move to their designated launch points. We are moving forward with the plans for war with Russia. As such, I want our nuclear forces on standby. While we anticipate that this war will be fought conventionally, we need to be prepared in case that nut job Petrov decides to push the envelope.”
