by Jared Cohen
“If you are a revolutionary, show us your capabilities”: Mahmoud Salem, “Chapter’s End!,” Rantings of a Sandmonkey (blog), June 18, 2012, http://www.sandmonkey.org/2012/06/18/chapters-end/.
He exhorted street activists to participate in governance: Mahmoud Salem, “For the Light to Come Back,” Rantings of a Sandmonkey (blog), March 30, 2012, http://www.sandmonkey.org/2012/03/30/for-the-light-to-come-back/.
Tina Rosenberg’s book Join the Club: For a more detailed interpretation of Tina Rosenberg’s Join the Club: How Peer Pressure Can Transform the World, see Saul Austerlitz, “Power of Persuasion: Tina Rosenberg’s Join the Club,” review, The National (Abu Dhabi), February 25, 2011, http://www.thenational.ae/arts-culture/books/power-of-persuasion-tina-rosenbergs-join-the-club#full; Jeffrey D. Sachs, “Can Social Networking Cure Social Ills?,” review, New York Times, May 20, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/22/books/review/book-review-join-the-club-by-tina-rosenberg.html?pagewanted=all; Thomas Hodgkinson, “Join the Club by Tina Rosenberg—Review,” Guardian (Manchester), September 1, 2011, http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2011/sep/02/join-club-tina-rosenberg-review; and Steve Wein-berg, “C’mon, Everyone’s Doing It,” review, Bookish (blog), Houston Chronicle, March 27, 2011, http://blog.chron.com/bookish/2011/03/cmon-everyones-doing-it-a-review-of-tina-rosenbergs-new-book/.
Perhaps the most compelling evidence: Tina Rosenberg, Join the Club: How Peer Pressure Can Transform the World (New York: W. W. Norton and Co., 2011).
powerful story of Serbian activists from the past training future activists around the world: Ibid., 278–82, 332–36.
they subsequently reoccupied Tahrir Square: “Egypt Anti-Military Protesters Fill Tahrir Square,” BBC, June 22, 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18547371; Aya Batrawy, Associated Press (AP), “Egypt Protests: Thousands Gather in Tahrir Square to Demonstrate Against Military Rule,” Huffington Post, April 20, 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/20/egypt-protests-tahrir-square_n_1439802.html; Gregg Carlstrom and Evan Hill, “Scorecard: Egypt Since the Revolution,” Al Jazeera, last updated January 24, 2012, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2012/01/20121227117613598.html; “Egypt Protests: Death Toll Up in Cairo’s Tahrir Square,” BBC, November 20, 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15809739.
Iranian regime during the 2009 postelection protests: Christopher Rhoads, Geoffrey A. Fowler, and Chip Cummins, “Iran Cracks Down on Internet Use, Foreign Media,” Wall Street Journal, June 17, 2009, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124519888117821213.html.
Egyptian regime effectively shut down all Internet and mobile connections: James Cowie, “Egypt Leaves the Internet,” Renesys (blog), January 27, 2011, http://www.renesys.com/blog/2011/01/egypt-leaves-the-internet.shtml.
exception to this all-ISP block: James Cowie, “Egypt Returns to the Internet,” Renesys (blog), February 2, 2011, http://www.renesys.com/blog/2011/02/egypt-returns-to-the-internet.shtml.
The country’s four main Internet service providers: Cowie, “Egypt Leaves the Internet,” http://www.renesys.com/blog/2011/01/egypt-leaves-the-internet.shtml.
mobile-phone service was also suspended: Associated Press (AP), “Vodafone: Egypt Ordered Cell Phone Service Stopped,” Huffington Post, January 28, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/28/vodafone-egypt-service-dropped_n_815493.html.
Vodafone Egypt, issued a statement that morning: “Statements—Vodafone Egypt,” Vodafone, see January 28, 2011, http://www.vodafone.com/content/index/media/press_statements/statement_on_egypt.html.
fiber-optic cables housed in one building in Cairo: James Glanz and John Markoff, “Egypt Leaders Found ‘Off’ Switch for Internet,” New York Times, February 15, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/16/technology/16internet.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0.
through its state-owned company Telecom Egypt, physically cut their service: Ibid.
It was a move unprecedented in recent history: Parmy Olson, “Egypt Goes Dark, Cuts Off Internet and Mobile Networks,” Forbes, January 28, 2011, http://www.forbes.com/sites/parmyolson/2011/01/28/egypt-goes-dark/.
“Hitting one hundred percent of the population”: Vittorio Colao in discussion with the authors, August 2011.
“We might not have liked the request”: Ibid.; see also, “Statements—Vodafone Egypt,” Vodafone, see January 28, 2011–February 3, 2011, http://www.vodafone.com/content/index/media/press_statements/statement_on_egypt.html.
send out its messages over the companies’ short-message-service (SMS) platform: “Statements—Vodafone Egypt,” Vodafone, see February 3, 2011, http://www.vodafone.com/content/index/media/press_statements/statement_on_egypt.html; Jonathan Browning, “Vodafone Says It Was Instructed to Send Pro-Mubarak Messages to Customers,” Bloomberg, February 3, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-03/vodafone-ordered-to-send-egyptian-government-messages-update1-.html.
“But at a point it became incredibly political and one-sided”: Vittorio Colao in discussion with the authors, August 2011.
“Vodafone Group PLC”—the parent company—“put out a statement”: Ibid.
French Data Network, opened up Internet access: Jonathan Browning, “Google, Twitter Offer Egyptians Option to Tweet,” Bloomberg, February 1, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-31/egyptians-turn-to-dial-up-service-to-get-around-government-s-web-shutdown.html.
Google launched a tweet-by-phone service: Ujjwal Singh and AbdelKarim Mardini, “Some Weekend Work That Will (Hopefully) Enable More Egyptians to Be Heard,” Google Blog, January 31, 2011, http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/some-weekend-work-that-will-hopefully.html.
“We decided that this has to be discussed”: Vittorio Colao in discussion with the authors, August 2011.
Egyptian police’s vice squad would troll chat rooms: In a Time of Torture: The Assault on Justice in Egypt’s Crackdown on Homosexual Conduct, Human Rights Watch (HRW): 2004, http://www.hrw.org/en/reports/2004/02/29/time-torture.
Cairo vice squad raided a floating nightclub: Ibid.; “Egypt: Egyptian Justice on Trial—The Case of the Cairo 52,” International Gay and Lesbian Human Rights Commission, October 15, 2001, http://www.iglhrc.org/cgi-bin/iowa/article/takeaction/partners/692.html.
a Chinese version of the protests: Andrew Jacobs, “Chinese Government Responds to Call for Protests,” New York Times, February 20, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/21/world/asia/21china.html?_r=1.
retaliated against a group of women: “Rights Group Decries Flogging Sentence for Female Saudi Driver,” CNN, September 27, 2011, http://articles.cnn.com/2011-09-27/middleeast/world_meast_saudi-arabia-flogging_1_flogging-sentence-women2drive-saudi-woman?_s=PM:MIDDLEEAST.
As news of her sentence spread: Ibid.; Amnesty International (AI), “Flogging Sentence for Saudi Arabian Woman After Driving ‘Beggars Belief,’ ” press release, September 27, 2011, https://www.amnesty.org/en/for-media/press-releases/flogging-sentence-saudi-arabian-woman-after-driving-%E2%80%9Cbeggars-belief%E2%80%9D-2011-0.
led the government to revoke the decision: “Saudi King Revokes Flogging of Female Driver,” CNN, September 29, 2011, http://www.cnn.com/2011/09/28/world/meast/saudi-arabia-flogging/index.html.
a decision to ban a satirical short film: Prince Alwaleed bin Talal al-Saud in discussion with the authors, February 2011; Faisal J. Abbas, “Monopoly: The Saudi Short-Film Which Went a Long Way,” Huffington Post, September 9, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/faisal-abbas/monopoly-the-saudi-shortf_b_969540.html.
The film, Monopoly, appeared on YouTube: Prince Alwaleed bin Talal al-Saud in discussion with the authors, February 2011. The film appeared on both Facebook and YouTube. The prince discussed the Facebook appearance of the video.
accumulated more than a million views: Ibid.
one of the highest rates of YouTube playbacks: “Saudi Arabia Ranks First in YouTube Views,” Al Arabiya, May 22, 2012, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/05/22/215774.html; Simon Owens, “Saudi Satire Ignites YouTube’s Massive Growth in Middle East,” U.S. News, May 30, 201
2, http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/05/30/saudi-satire-ignites-youtubes-massive-growth-in-middle-east.
fastest growing mobile market anywhere: African Mobile Observatory 2011: Driving Economic and Social Development Through Mobile Services, Groupe Speciale Mobile (GSM), 9, accessed October 17, 2011, http://www.gsma.com/publicpolicy/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/africamobileobservatory2011-1.pdf.
“The Internet is good for letting off steam”: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in discussion with the authors, November 2011.
Young people everywhere: Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s assertion that young people want to be cool is supported by Tina Rosenberg’s discussion of the need to be cool as a key part of Otpor’s strategy, which it has taught to opposition groups around the world. For examples of the “coolness factor” in Otpor, see Rosenberg, Join the Club, 223–224, 229, 256–58, 260, 276.
“Currygate”: Shamim Adam, “Singapore Curry Protest Heats Up Vote with Facebook Campaign,” Bloomberg, August 19, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-18/singapore-curry-protest-heats-up-vote.html; “Singaporeans to Launch Largest ‘Protest’ over ‘Currygate’ Incident,” TR Emeritus (blog), August 21, 2011, http://www.tremeritus.com/2011/08/21/singaporeans-to-launch-largest-protest-over-currygate-incident/.
“A Chinese immigrant and a Singaporean of Indian descent quarreled”: Lee Hsien Loong in discussion with the authors, November 2011.
almost a billion Chinese citizens: Michael Kan, International Data Group (IDG) News Service, “China’s Internet Population Reaches 538 Million,” July 19, 2012, PCWorld, http://www.pcworld.com/article/259482/chinas_internet_population_reaches_538_million.html; at the time of writing, China’s population exceeded 1.3 billion, so there were approximately 800 million Chinese citizens left to become connected. We factored in population increase projections over the next decade to estimate almost a billion. According to a 2012 report from the Committee to Protect Journalists, Eritrea was most censored, followed by North Korea.
“What happens in China is beyond anyone’s full control”: Lee Hsien Loong in discussion with the authors, November 2011.
“The history of revolutions is a confluence”: Henry Kissinger in discussion with the authors, December 2011.
CHAPTER 5
THE FUTURE OF TERRORISM
we’re acutely vulnerable to cyber terrorism: There is some overlap in tactics between cyber terrorism and criminal hacking, but generally the motivations distinguish the two. This is not unlike the distinction that is made between narco-trafficking and terrorism.
one of the greatest shared fears among American troops: Army captain (in Iraq) in discussion with the authors, November 2009.
The IED of 2009 was cheaper and more innovative: Ibid.
What was once a sophisticated and lucrative violent activity: One of the authors first learned about this while speaking on a panel with Jonathan Powers at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in 2005. The authors have since corroborated this data point with additional anecdotes from civilian and military officials who have been working on or deployed in Iraq over the past decade.
“maker phenomenon”: Andy Rubin in discussion with the authors, February 2012.
Somalia’s al-Shabaab insurgent group on Twitter: Will Oremus, “Twitter of Terror,” Slate, December 23, 2011, http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technocracy/2011/12/al_shabaab_twitter_a_somali_militant_group_unveils_a_new_social_media_strategy_for_terrorists_.html.
Anwar al-Awlaki, the late American-born extremist cleric: “Profile: Anwar al-Awlaki,” Anti-Defamation League (ADL), updated November 2011, http://www.adl.org/main_Terrorism/anwar_al-awlaki.htm.
several successful and would-be terrorists cited him: Pierre Thomas, Martha Raddatz, Rhonda Schwartz and Jason Ryan, “Fort Hood Suspect Yells Nidal Hasan’s Name in Court,” ABC Blotter, July 29, 2011, http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/fort-hood-suspect-naser-jason-abdo-yells-nidal-hasan/story?id=14187568#.UIIwW8VG-8C; Bruce Hoffman, “Why al Qaeda Will Survive,” Daily Beast, September 30, 2011, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/09/30/al-awlaki-s-death-nothing-more-than-a-glancing-blow-al-qaeda-stronger-than-everest.html.
“Even the most anti-Western religious figures in Saudi Arabia”: Prince Alwaleed bin Talal al-Saud in discussion with the authors, February 2012.
“We pitched propaganda stalls outside the Motorola offices”: Maajid Nawaz in discussion with the authors, February 2012.
Colombian prison officials stopped an eleven-year-old girl: “Colombia Catches Girl ‘Smuggling 74 Mobiles into Jail,’ ” BBC, February 6, 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-12378390.
In Brazil, inmates trained carrier pigeons: “Pigeons Fly Mobile Phones to Brazilian Prisoners,” Telegraph (London), March 30, 2009, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/5079580/Pigeons-fly-mobile-phones-to-Brazilian-prisoners.html.
local gang hired a teenager: Associated Press (AP), “Police: Brazilian Teen Used Bow and Arrow to Launch Illegal Cell Phones over Prison Walls,” Fox News, September 2, 2010, http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/09/02/police-brazilian-teen-used-bow-arrow-launch-illegal-cell-phones-prison-walls/.
going rate for a contraband smart phone: Former member of a South Central Los Angeles gang in discussion with the authors, April 2012.
Afghanistan, a country with one of the lowest rates of connectivity in the world: “Mobile-Cellular Subscriptions” and “Percentage of Individuals Using the Internet,” International Telecommunication Union (ITU), ICT Data and Statistics (IDS), accessed October 19, 2012, http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/.
tens of thousands of political prisoners were killed there annually: The authors received this information during an unclassified briefing with prison staff, February 2009.
terrorist nerve center: Rod Nordland and Sharifullah Sahak, “Afghan Government Says Prisoner Directed Attacks,” New York Times, February 10, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/11/world/asia/11afghan.html?_r=1&scp=3&sq=pul%20e%20charki&st=cse.
Following a violent riot in 2008 in the prison’s Cell Block Three: Description of the terror cell operating from Pul-e-Charkhi comes from Jared’s briefings (unclassified) and interviews during his visit to the prison in February 2009; see also Joshua Philipp, “Corruption Turning Afghan Prisons into Taliban Bases: Imprisoned Taliban Leaders Coordinate Attacks from Within Prison Walls,” Epoch Times, August 29, 2011, http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/world/corruption-turning-afghan-prisons-into-taliban-bases-60910.html.
Agie responded to a joking request for his phone number: Mullah Akbar Agie in discussion with Jared Cohen, February 2009.
Shortly thereafter, a series of cyber attacks crippled: “Anonymous (Internet Group),” New York Times, updated March 8, 2012, http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/a/anonymous_internet_group/index.html.
vowed to take revenge on any organization: Sean-Paul Correll, “Operation: Payback Broadens to Operation Avenge Assange.” Pandalabs (blog), December 6, 2010, http://pandalabs.pandasecurity.com/operationpayback-broadens-to-operation-avenge-assange/; Mathew Ingram, “WikiLeaks Gets Its Own ‘Axis of Evil’ Defense Network,” GigaOM (blog), December 8, 2010, http://gigaom.com/2010/12/08/wikileaks-gets-its-own-axis-of-evil-defence-network/.
A string of global investigations followed: U.S. Department of Justice, “Sixteen Individuals Arrested in the United States for Alleged Roles in Cyber Attacks,” national press release, July 19, 2011, http://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/sixteen-individuals-arrested-in-the-united-states-for-alleged-roles-in-cyber-attacks; Andy Greenberg, “Fourteen Anonymous Hackers Arrested for ‘Operation Avenge Assange,’ LulzSec Leader Claims He’s Not Affected,” Forbes, July 19, 2011, http://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2011/07/19/anonymous-arrests-continue-lulzsec-leader-claims-hes-not-affected/; “Hackers Arrested in US, NL and UK,” Radio Netherlands Worldwide, July 20, 2011, http://www.rnw.nl/english/bulletin/hackers-arrested-us-nl-and-uk.
he told The New York
Times via e-mail: Somini Sengupta, “Hacker Rattles Security Circles,” New York Times, September 11, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/12/technology/hacker-rattles-internet-security-circles.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0.
Boasting aside, Comodohacker was able to forge: Ibid.
compromised the communications: Ibid.
He said he attacked: Ibid.
declared that he was “one of the strongest haters of Israel”: “I Will Finish Israel Off Electronically: Ox-Omar,” Emirates 24/7, January 22, 2012, http://www.emirates247.com/news/world/i-will-finish-israel-off-electronically-ox-omar-2012-01-22-1.438856.
a file that contained four hundred thousand credit-card numbers: Chloe Albanesius, “Hackers Target Israeli Stock Exchange, Airline Web Sites,” PC Magazine, January 16, 2012, http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2398941,00.asp.
most of these were duplicates: Isabel Kershner, “Cyberattack Exposes 20,000 Israeli Credit Card Numbers and Details About Users,” New York Times, January 6, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/07/world/middleeast/cyberattack-exposes-20000-israeli-credit-card-numbers.html.
He claimed to represent a group of Wahhabi hackers: Jonathon Blakeley, “Israeli Credit Card Hack,” deLiberation, January 5, 2012, http://www.deliberation.info/israeli-credit-card-hack/.
“It will be so fun to see”: Ehud Kenan, “Saudi Hackers Leak Personal Information of Thousands of Israelis,” YNet, January 3, 2012, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4170465,00.html.
the websites of Israel’s El Al Airlines and its stock exchange were brought down: Isabel Kershner, “2 Israeli Web Sites Crippled as Cyberwar Escalates,” New York Times, January 16, 2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/17/world/middleeast/cyber-attacks-temporarily-cripple-2-israeli-web-sites.html.
attacks would be reduced if Israel apologized for its “genocide”: Yaakov Lappin, “ ‘I Want to Harm Israel,’ Saudi Hacker Tells ‘Post,’ ” Jerusalem Post, January 16, 2012, http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=253893; Saar Haas, “ ‘OxOmar’ Demands Israeli Apology,” YNet, January 16, 2012, http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4176436,00.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter.
