Full-Rip 9.0: The Next Big Earthquake in the Pacific Northwest

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by Sandi Doughton


  Pope, Daniel. “Environmental Constraints and Organizational Failures: The Washington Public Power Supply System,” Business and Economic History 19 (1990).

  Connelly, Joel, “Locals rejected plans for nuke plant on fault line,” SeattlePI.com, March 15, 2011. Accessed December 2012, http://www.seattlepi.com/default/article/Locals-rejected-plans-for-nuke-plant-on-fault-line-1191350.php.

  Welch, Bob. “Memories of a nearly nuclear coast.” The Register-Guard, March 12, 2011.

  “Preliminary Safety Analysis Report.” WPPSS Nuclear Project No. 3, 1974.

  “Final Safety Analysis Report.” WPPS Nuclear Project No. 3. 1983.

  For information on the history of earthquake theories and the development of plate tectonics:

  Kious, W. Jacquelyne and Robert I. Tilling. “This Dynamic Earth: The Story of Plate Tectonics,” USGS, January 2013, http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/dynamic.html#anchor10790904.

  Bryson, Bill. A Short History of Nearly Everything. New York: Broadway Books, 2003.

  Hough, Susan Elizabeth. Earthshaking Science: What we Know (and Don’t Know) about Earthquakes. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2002.

  Zeilinga de Boer, Jelle and Donald Theodore Sanders. Earthquakes in Human History: The Far-Reaching effects of Seismic Disruptions. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005.

  Pringle, Patrick, Centralia College, Tom Heaton, and Hiroo Kanamori, conversations with author.

  Heaton, Thomas H. and Hiroo Kanamori. “Seismic potential associated with subduction in the Northwestern United States.” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 74, (1984): 933-41.

  CHAPTER 2: WRITTEN IN MUD

  Atwater, Brian, Kery Sieh, Wendy Grant Walter, Boyd Benson, John Shulene, Carrie Garrison-Lacey, Frances Demarco, and Dave Yamaguchi, conversations with author.

  For studies providing the first hints of activity in Cascadia:

  Ando, Masataka and Emery I. Balas. “Geodetic evidence for aseismic subduction of the Juan de Fuca Plate.” Journal of Geophysical Research 84, (1979): 3023-28.

  Reilinger, Robert and John Adams. “Geodetic evidence for active landward tilting of the Oregon and Washington coastal ranges.” Geophysical Research Letters 9, (1982): 401-3.

  Adams, John. “Active deformation of the Pacific Northwest continental margin.” Tectonics 3 (1984): 449-72.

  Doig, Ivan. Winter Brothers: A Season at the Edge of America. San Diego: Harcourt Brace & Company, 1980.

  For studies documenting Atwater, Yamaguchi, and other’s research on the NW coast:

  Atwater, Brian F. “Evidence for great Holocene earthquakes along the outer coast of Washington State.” Science 236 (1987): 942-44.

  Atwater, Brian F. and David K. Yamaguchi. “Sudden probably coseismic submergence of Holocene trees and grass in coastal Washington State.” Geology 19 (1991): 706-9.

  Atwater, Brian F., Minze Stuiver and David K. Yamaguchi. “Radiocarbon test of earthquake magnitude at the Cascadia Subduction Zone.” Nature 353 (1991): 156-8.

  Atwater, Brian F. “Geologic evidence for earthquakes during the past 2000 years along the Copalis River, southern coastal Washington.” Journal of Geophysical Research 97 (1992): 1901-19.

  Nelson, Alan R. et al. “Radiocarbon evidence for extensive plate-boundary rupture about 300 years ago at the Cascadia Subduction Zone.” Nature 378 (1995): 371-4.

  Atwater, Brian F. et al. “Summary of coastal geologic evidence for past great earthquakes at the Cascadia Subduction Zone.” Earthquake Spectra 11 (1995): 1-18.

  Atwater, Brian F. and Eileen Hemphill-Haley. “Preliminary estimates of recurrence intervals for great earthquakes of the past 3500 years at the northeastern Willapa Bay, Washington.” U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 96-001 (1996).

  Atwater, Brian F. et al. “Earthquake recurrence inferred from paleoseismology.” Developments in Quaternary Science. 1 (2003): 331-350.

  CHAPTER 3: PARENT QUAKE, ORPHAN TSUNAMI

  For information about the life and work of James Gilchrist Swan:

  McDonald, Lucile. Swan Among the Indians: Life of James G. Swan. Hillsboro: Binfords & Mort Publishers, 1972.

  Swan, James G. Northwest Coast: Or, Three Years’ Residence in Washington Territory. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1969.

  For Native American earthquake traditions and stories:

  Riebe, Viola, Robert Dennis, and Vicki Ozaki, conversations with author.

  Heaton, Thomas H. and Parke D. Snavely, Jr. “Possible tsunami along the Northwestern coast of the United States inferred from Indian traditions.” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 75 (1985): 1455-1460.

  McMillan, Alan D. and Ian Hutchinson. “When the mountain dwarfs danced: aboriginal traditions of paleoseismic events along the Cascadia Subduction Zone of Western North America.” Ethnohistory 49 (2002): 1.

  Ludwin, Ruth et al. “Dating the 1700 Cascadia earthquake: Great coastal earthquakes in native stories.” Seismological Research Letters 76 (2005): 140-8.

  Younker, Jason T. “Weaving long ropes: Oral tradition and understanding the great tide.” Oregon Historical Quarterly 108 (2007): 193.

  Phillips, Patricia Whereat. 2007. “Tsunamis and floods in Coos Bay mythology: great Cascadia earthquakes and tsunamis along the Oregon Coast.” Oregon Historical Quarterly 108 (2007): 181.

  Byram, R. Scott. “Tectonic history and cultural memory: catastrophe and restoration on the Oregon coast.” Oregon Historical Quarterly 108 (2007): 167.

  For information about Japanese history and earthquake monitoring: Roberts, Luke S, UC Santa Barbara, and Kenji Satake, conversations with author.

  Goldfarb, Lyn and Deborah Desnoo. 2004. “Japan: Memoirs of a Secret Empire.” PBS video, 2004. http://www.pbs.org/empires/japan.

  Atwater, Brian F. et al. “The Orphan Tsunami of 1700: Japanese clues to a parent earthquake in North America.” USGS, 2005, http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1707

  Satake, Kenji et al. “Time and size of a giant earthquake in Cascadia inferred from Japanese tsunami records of January 1700.” Nature 379 (1996): 246-249.

  Kanamori, Hiroo and Thomas H. Heaton. “The wake of a legendary earthquake.” Nature 379 (1996): 203-4.

  Yamaguchi, David K. et al. “Tree-ring dating the 1700 Cascadia earthquake.” Nature 389 (1997): 922.

  Jacoby, Gordon C., Daniel E. Bunker and Boyd E. Benson. “Tree-ring evidence for an A.D. 1700 Cascadia earthquake in Washington and northern Oregon.” Geology 25 (1997): 999-1002.

  CHAPTER 4: A VIEW FROM THE SEA

  Goldfinger, Chris, and Gary Griggs, conversations with author.

  Study on ocean cores:

  Griggs, Gary B.. “The first ocean evidence of great Cascadia earthquakes.” Eos 92 (2011): 325-6.

  For background on underwater landslides and the Grand Banks earthquake:

  Heezen, Bruce C. and Maurice Ewing. “Turbidity currents and submarine sumps, and the 1929 Grand Banks earthquake.” American Journal of Science 250 (1952): 849-873.

  Nisbet, Euan G and David J.W. Piper. “Giant submarine landslides.” Nature 392 (1998): 329-330.

  “The 1929 Magnitude 7.2 “Grand Banks” earthquake and tsunami.” Natural Resources Canada. http://www.earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/histor/20th-eme/1929/1929-eng.php

  For John Adams’s analysis of underwater landslides:

  Adams, John. “Paleoseismicity of the Cascadia Subduction Zone: Evidence from Turbidites off the Oregon-Washington Margin.” Tectonics 9 (1990): 569-583.

  For additional information on Goldfinger’s research:

  McCaffrey, Robert and Chris Goldfinger. “Forearc deformation and great subduction earthquakes: Implications for Cascadia offshore earthquake potential.” Science 267 (1995): 856-859.

  Goldfinger, Chris et al. “Deep-water turbidites as Holocene earthquake proxies: The Cascadia subduction zone and Northern San Andreas Fault systems.” Annals of Geophysics 46 (2003): 1169-1194.

  Kelsey, Harvey M. et al. “Tsunami history of an Oregon coastal lake
reveals a 4600 year record of great earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone.” GSA Bulletin 117 (2005): 1009-1032.

  Goldfinger, Chris et al. “Turbidite event history—Methods and implications for Holocene paleoseismicity of the Cascadia Subduction Zone.” USGS, 2012, http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1661f/.

  For seafloor secrecy:

  Spinrad, Rick, conversation with author.

  Jeremy Legget, “The depths of secrecy—Just when you thought the Cold War was over, the US Navy tries it again,” The Guardian, December13, 1988.

  William J. Broad, “Map makes ocean floors as knowable as Venus,” The New York Times, October 24, 1995.

  Doel, Ronald E., Tanya J. Levin and Mason K. Marker. “Extending modern cartography to the ocean depths: Military patronage, Cold War priorities, and the Heezen-Tharp mapping project, 1952-1959.” Journal of Historical Geography, 32 (2006): 605-26.

  CHAPTER 5: SEATTLE’S FAULT

  Daněs, Frank, Professor and Wayne Gilhamn, conversations with author.

  For other work and adventures of Daněs:

  Daněs, Zdenko Frankenberger. “Memories of an Adventurer” (unpublished manuscript, 2011).

  Daněs, Z.F. et al. “Geophysical investigation of the southern Puget Sound area, Washington.” Journal of Geophysical Research. 70 (1965): 5573-80.

  Bucknam, Bob, and Brian Sherrod, conversations with author.

  For a summary of the archaeological and geological findings of the tsunami at West Point:

  Lape, Peter et al., “The Archaeology of West Point,” The Burke Museum, accessed January 2013, http://www.burkemuseum.org/westpoint/.

  For information about the underwater forests of Lake Washington and the case of John Tortorelli see: Williams, Pat, and Brendan Buckley, conversations with author.

  McKnight, Edwin F. T. “The Origin and History of Lake Washington.” B.S. thesis, University of Washington, 1923.

  Williams, David, B. The Seattle Street-Smart Naturalist. Portland: West-Winds Press, 2005.

  Hopkins, Jack, “Log salvager sank too low, prosecutors say; trial focuses on trees under Lake Washington,” Seattle Post-Intelligencer, January 13, 1995.

  Hopkins, Jack. “Salvager convicted of stealing Lake Washington logs,” Seattle Post-Intelligencer, February 17, 1995.

  P-I Staff. “Prison term for theft from sunken forest,” Seattle Post-Intelligencer April 15, 1995.

  Washington vs. John Tortorelli, Supreme Court of Washington, En Banc, No. 71251-4, April 10, 2003.

  For the a’yahos and their possible connection to Seattle Fault earthquakes:

  Ludwin, R.S. et al. “Serpent spirit-power stories along the Seattle Fault.” Seismological Research Letters. 76 (2005): 426-31.

  For studies that proved an earthquake on the Seattle Fault 1,100 years ago along with a commentary from John Adams:

  Adams, John. “Paleoseismology: A search for ancient earthquakes in Puget Sound.” Science 258 (1992): 1592-3.

  Bucknam, Robert C., Eileen Hemphill-Haley and Estella B. Leopold. “Abrupt uplift within the past 1,700 years at southern Puget Sound, Washington.” Science 258 (1992): 1611-1614.

  Atwater, Brian F. and Andrew L. Moore. “A tsunami about 1,000 years ago in Puget Sound, Washington.” Science 258 (1992): 1614-7.

  Karlin, Robert E. and Sally E.B. Abella. “Paleoearthquakes in the Puget Sound region recorded in sediments from Lake Washington, USA.” Science 258 (1992): 1617-20.

  Schuster, Robert L., Robert L. Logan and Patrick T. Pringle. “Prehistoric rock avalanches in the Olympic Mountains, Washington.” Science 258 (1992): 1620-1.

  Jacoby, Gordon C., Patrick L. Williams and Brendan M. Buckley. “Tree ring correlation between prehistoric landslides and abrupt tectonic events in Seattle, Washington.” Science 258 (1992): 1621-3.

  For the 1995 earthquake on or near the Seattle Fault:

  Dewberry, Shawn R. and Robert S. Crosson. “The M 5.0 earthquake of 29 January 1995 in the Puget lowland of Western Washington: An event on the Seattle Fault?” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 86 (1996): 1167-72.

  For the Seattle Fault quake scenario: “Scenario for a Magnitude 6.7 Earthquake on the Seattle Fault,” Earthquake Engineering Research Institute and the Washington Military Department Emergency Management Division, accessed January 2013, http://www.eeri.org/projects/earthquake-scenarios/seattle-fault-scenario/.

  CHAPTER 6: SEEING THE FAULTS FOR THE TREES

  For information on lidar and aeromagnetic surveys and their use to find and investigate faults in the Pacific Northwest:

  Berghoff, Greg and David Harding, NASA, conversations with author.

  Haugerud, Ralph, Craig Weaver, Ian Madin, Rick Blakely, Tom Pratt, conversations with author.

  For additional information:

  Harding, David J. and Gregory S. Berghoff. “Fault scarp detection beneath dense vegetation cover: Airborne lidar mapping of the Seattle Fault zone, Bainbridge Island, Washington State.” Proceedings of the American Society of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing Annual Conference, Washington, D.C., May 2000.

  Nelson, Alan R. et al. “Late Holocene earthquakes on the Toe Jam Hill fault, Seattle Fault zone, Bainbridge Island, WA.” Geological Society of America Bulletin. 115 2003: 1388-1403.

  Haugerud, Ralph A. et al, “High-resolution lidar topography of the Puget lowland, Washington—A bonanza for earth science,” GSA Today, June 2003, http://earthweb.ess.washington.edu/~bsherrod/brian/Haugerud_etal_GSAToday_LiDAR_Bonanza.pdf.

  Sherrod, Brian L. et al. “Holocene fault scarps near Tacoma, Washington, USA.” Geology 32 (2004): 9-12.

  Blakeley, Richard J. et al. “Connecting the Yakima fold and thrust belt to active faults in the Puget lowland, Washington.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 116 (2011): B07105.

  Sherrod, Brian L. et al. “Finding concealed active faults: Extending the southern Whidbey Island fault across the Puget lowland, Washington.” Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): B05313.

  Yeats, Robert S. and Craig Weaver. “Surface faulting: A new paradigm for the Pacific Northwest.” Seismological Research Letters 75 (2004): 467-9.

  Wells, Craig, and Tim Melbourne, conversations with author.

  For information on tectonic motions in the NW:

  Wells, Ray E., Craig S. Weaver and Richard J. Blakely. “Fore-arc migration in Cascadia and its neotectonic significance.” Geology 26 (1998): 759-62.

  White, Randall, and David Hill, USGS, conversations with author.

  For links between earthquakes and volcanic eruptions see:

  Linde, Alan T. and I. Selwyn Sacks. “Triggering of volcanic eruptions.” Nature 395 (1998): 888-90.

  Hill, David P., Fred Pollitz and Christopher Newhall. “Earthquake-Volcano Interactions.” Physics Today, November 2002.

  CHAPTER 7: THE EARTHQUAKE THAT WOULDN’T STAY PUT

  Hooper, Margaret, William Bakun, Bob Royer, Eric Cheney, and Ivan Wong, conversations with author.

  For information on the earthquake and nuclear investigations: Splawn, A.J. Ka-mi-akin: Last Hero of the Yakimas. First edition copyright by Mrs. A. J. Splawn: 1917.

  Milne, W.G. 1956. “Seismic activity in Canada west of the 113th meridian, 1841-1951.” Ottawa: Publications of the Dominion Observatory, 1956.

  Bechtel, Inc. “Investigation of the December 14, 1872 earthquake in the Pacific Northwest.” Skagit Nuclear Power Project, Preliminary Safety Analysis Report, 1975.

  Woodward-Clyde Consultants. “Review of the North Cascades earthquake of 14 December, 187.” WPPSS Nuclear Power Projects 1 and 4, Preliminary Safety Analysis Report 1976.

  Weston Geophysical Research, Inc. “The 1872 earthquake, significant data and conclusions.” United Engineers and Constructors, Inc. 1976.

  Coombs, Howard A. et al. “Report of the review panel on the December 14, 1872 earthquake, in Washington Public Power Supply System.” WPPSS Nuclear Project No. 1, Preliminary Safety Analysis Report, 1976.

  Malone, Stephen D. and Sheng-Sheang Bor. “Atten
uation patterns in the Pacific Northwest based on intensity data and the location of the 1872 North Cascades earthquake.” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 69 (1979): 531-46.

  Weichert, Dieter. “Omak Rock and the 1872 Pacific Northwest earthquake.” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 84 (1994): 444-50.

  Madole, Richard F., Robert L. Schuster and Andrei M. Sarna-Wojcicki. “Ribbon Cliff landslide, Washington and the earthquake of 14 December 1872.” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 85 (1995): 986-1002.

  Bakun, William H., Ralph A. Haugerud, Margaret G. Hopper and Ruth S. Ludwin. “The December 1872 Washington state earthquake.” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 92 (2002): 3239-58.

  Royer, Bob. “The Earthquake That Wouldn’t Stay Put,” Cascadia Courier, accessed January 2012, http://www.thecascadiacourier.com/2011/04/earthquake-that-wouldnt-stay-put.html.

  Vidale, John, conversation with author.

  Spall, Henry. 1980. “An interview with Charles F. Richter. USGS Earthquake Hazards Program,” Earthquake Information Bulletin 12 (1980): 1, http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/people.php?peopleID=23.

  Scheid, Ann. “Oral History: Charles F. Richter – How it was.” Engineering & Science. (1982): 24-8.

  Strauss, Stephen. The Sizesaurus. New York: Kodansha America, Inc., 1995.

  Udias, Agustin and William Stauder. “The Jesuit Contribution to Seismology.” Seismological Research Letters 67 (1996): 10-9

  Levinson, Bill, “Time to dump the Richter Scale,” San Francisco Chronicle, October 17, 1999.

  “USGS Earthquake Magnitude Policy,” 2002, http://earthquake.usgs.gov/aboutus/docs/020204mag_policy.php, October 2012.

  Zannos, Susan. Charles Richter and the Story of the Richter Scale. Delaware: Mitchell Lane Publishers, 2004.

  Hough, Susan Elizabeth. Richter’s Scale: Measure of an Earthquake; Measure of a Man. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2007.

  Bodin, Paul, 2012. “How earthquake magnitude scales work,” Seismo (blog), Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, 2012, http://www.pnsn.org/blog/2012/02/16/how-earthquake-magnitude-scales-work.

  CHAPTER 8: IT CAME FROM THE DEEP

  Davis, Carol and Bill Steele, University of Washington, conversations with author.

 

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