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50% of people have nice skin.
But among those who regularly check their horoscope, 75% people have nice skin.
----------------
40% of people press the “door close” button after selecting their elevator floor.
But among those who regularly check their horoscope, 65% press the “door close” button after selecting their elevator floor.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to regularly check your horoscope if you both:
have never taken a defensive-driving course
prefer to read white text on a black background more than black text on a white background
NO CORRELATION
People who regularly check their horoscope are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
prefer mint gum to non-mint gum
like Brussels sprouts
think it’s never OK for a significant other to keep photos of old flames
Horror Movies
15% of people can spin a basketball on their finger.
But among those who like horror movies, 30% can spin a basketball on their finger.
----------------
40% of people are fans of Arrested Development.
But among those who like horror movies, 52% are fans of Arrested Development.
----------------
54% of people root for Wile E. Coyote over the Road Runner.
But among those who like horror movies, 66% root for Wile E. Coyote over the Road Runner.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to enjoy horror movies if you both:
want a tattoo
believe that churches and other places of worship should not be tax exempt
NO CORRELATION
People who like horror movies are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
rather have a smiley face than an interrobang as a designated key on their keyboard
have solved a Rubik’s Cube
have illegible signatures
HTML Comprehension
----------------
47% of people know who actress Felicia Day is.
But among those who understand HTML, 59% know who actress Felicia Day is.
----------------
46% of people have looked at NSFW stuff at work.
But among those who understand HTML, 55% have looked at NSFW stuff at work.
----------------
77% of people have never purposely listened to a Justin Bieber song.
But among those who understand HTML, 85% have never purposely listened to a Justin Bieber song.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to understand HTML if you both:
regularly back up your files
are more likely to do electric work on your own than plumbing work
NO CORRELATION
People who understand HTML are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
consider themselves less generous than the average person
be able to differentiate between a tangerine and a clementine
be able to pop a wheelie
STATISTICS 101:
CORRELATION AND CAUSATION
Just because two things are correlated, it doesn’t necessarily mean that there is a causal relationship between the two.
For instance, the rate of autism diagnoses has been rising over the past 15 years, as have sales of organic foods. That doesn’t mean that the rise in one causes the rise in the other.
However, some correlations are indeed the result of a causal relationship. For instance, we know, based on empirical observations, that tall parents tend to have tall children, and short parents tend to have short children. The height of the parent is a cause (although not the only determining factor) of the child’s height.
How can you tell whether a causal connection exists between two things that appear to be correlated? Ask yourself these questions:
1.How strong is the correlation between A and B? A weak correlation makes a causal relationship unlikely.
2.By what process might A cause B, or B cause A? If you can come up with a plausible process, you’re on your way to establishing a causal relationship, but even then, it’s possible that your explanation, while plausible, is nonetheless incorrect.
3.Can you think of any confounding variables (see page 68) that might be the root cause of both A and B? If so, that may be the more likely explanation.
4.If A didn’t exist, would B continue? If B would indeed continue, then A can’t be the exclusive cause of B.
iPods/iPads
32% of people have had to make a life-or-death decision.
But among those who don’t own iPods/iPads, only 21% have had to make a life-or-death decision.
----------------
54% of people aren’t willing to pay more for organic foods.
But among those who don’t own iPods/iPads, 65% aren’t willing to pay more for organic foods.
----------------
28% of people tend to stir their drinks counterclockwise.
But among those who don’t own iPods/iPads, 38% tend to stir their drinks counterclockwise.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to not own an iPod/iPad if you both:
don’t own skinny jeans
dislike Avril Lavigne more than Nickelback
NO CORRELATION
People who don’t own iPods/iPads are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
be credit union members
have served on a jury
have had wisdom teeth extracted
Jugglers
40% of people prefer Bill Clinton over Hillary Clinton.
But among those who can juggle, 59% prefer Bill Clinton over Hillary Clinton.
----------------
53% of people prefer the top bunk to the bottom bunk.
But among those who can juggle, 70% prefer the top bunk to the bottom bunk.
----------------
64% of people think the penny should be done away with.
But among those who can juggle, 80% think the penny should be done away with.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to be able to juggle if you both:
can spin a basketball on your finger
can hold your breath longer than the average person
NO CORRELATION
People who can juggle are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
dislike extra chunky pasta sauce
like classical music
prefer to use an electric razor
Jury Duty
37% of people have used the word obsequious in conversation.
But among those who have served on a jury, 59% have used the word obsequious in conversation.
----------------
41% of people say they have good posture.
But among those who have served on a jury, 62% say they have good posture.
----------------
61% of people are fans of Penn & Teller.
But among those who have served on a jury, 82% are fans of Penn & Teller.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to have served on a jury if you both:
have been on a cruise
prefer gold-colored jewelry
NO CORRELATION
People who have served on a jury are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
prefer plain M&M’s
oppose the “cry it out” approach to child sleep issues
prefer multiple choice test questions over essay questions
LA vs. NYC
&n
bsp; 40% of people support capital punishment.
But among those who think Los Angelenos are cooler than New Yorkers, 55% support capital punishment.
----------------
32% of people are members of warehouse clubs.
But among those who think Los Angelenos are cooler than New Yorkers, 47% are members of warehouse clubs.
----------------
26% of people would rather change their marital status for a day than their sex.
But among those who think Los Angelenos are cooler than New Yorkers, 39% would rather change their marital status for a day than their sex.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to think Los Angelenos are cooler than New Yorkers if you both:
prefer doughnuts to muffins
are more likely to become vegetarian for health reasons than ethical reasons
NO CORRELATION
People who think Los Angelenos are cooler than New Yorkers are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
have had chicken pox
like a cappella music
have high cholesterol
Lactose Intolerance
42% of people are interested in going into business for themselves.
But among those who are lactose intolerant, only 14% are interested in going into business for themselves.
----------------
46% of people like beets.
But among those who are lactose intolerant, 68% like beets.
----------------
46% of people would rather ride a waterslide than a roller coaster.
But among those who are lactose intolerant, 64% would rather ride a waterslide than a rollercoaster.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to be lactose intolerant if you both:
prefer literature classes over composition classes
like onions on your burgers
NO CORRELATION
People who are lactose intolerant are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
have gone glow bowling
think prostitution should be legal
have had athlete’s foot
Lady Gaga Fans
72% of people believe it’s possible to be a woman born in a man’s body or vice versa.
But among Lady Gaga fans, 84% believe it’s possible to be a woman born in a man’s body or vice versa.
----------------
77% of people have a positive opinion about surrogate pregnancy.
But among Lady Gaga fans, 88% people have a positive opinion about surrogate pregnancy.
----------------
19% of people regularly tweet on Twitter.
But among Lady Gaga fans, 29% regularly tweet on Twitter.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to be a Lady Gaga fan if you both:
supported Barack Obama’s reelection bid
consider yourself to have very little shame
NO CORRELATION
Lady Gaga fans are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
have never taken an Internet hiatus
own a bicycle
have had an imaginary friend when they were a child
Landlines
33% of people think Google hasn’t done a good job of adhering to its unofficial “Don’t be evil” motto.
But among those who have a landline phone, 45% think Google hasn’t done a good job of adhering to its unofficial “Don’t be evil” motto.
----------------
41% of people are fans of Arrested Development.
But among those who have a landline phone, only 29% are fans of Arrested Development.
----------------
33% of people dislike Avril Lavigne more than Nickelback.
But among those who have a landline phone, 44% dislike Avril Lavigne more than Nickelback.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to have a landline phone if you both:
prefer gold-colored jewelry to silver-colored jewelry
watch TV news
NO CORRELATION
People who have a landline phone are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
think World War III will occur in the next 25 years
be unable to tell the difference between Coke and Pepsi
like sea scallops
Left Handers
49% of people think that men who wear hats indoors are committing a faux pas.
But among left-handers, 69% think that men who wear hats indoors are committing a faux pas.
----------------
53% of people say their closest platonic friend is more attractive than they are.
But among left-handers, only 36% say their closest platonic friend is more attractive than they are.
----------------
31% of people would prefer to be the world’s most talented visual artist, rather than the world’s most talented musician.
But among left-handers, 45% would prefer to be the world’s most talented visual artist, rather than the world’s most talented musician.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to be left-handed if you both:
prefer to be photographed from your left side
don’t find it hard to resist picking at scabs
NO CORRELATION
Left-handers are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
think sunrise is more beautiful than sunset
like the smell of cedar
be willing to bare it all on a nude beach
Lemons vs. Limes
60% of people prefer fiction to nonfiction.
But among those who prefer lemons over limes, 72% prefer fiction to nonfiction.
----------------
71% of people like Robin Williams better in his funny roles than in his serious roles.
But among those who prefer lemons over limes, 82% like Robin Williams better in his funny roles than in his serious roles.
----------------
59% of people prefer Hillary Clinton over Bill Clinton.
But among those who prefer lemons over limes, 68% prefer Hillary Clinton over Bill Clinton.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to prefer lemons over limes if you both:
don’t like Dr Pepper
consider yourself more generous than the average person
NO CORRELATION
People who prefer lemons over limes are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
have posted their photo on a site where others vote on their attractiveness
prefer bagels over croissants
be tactful
Leno vs. Letterman
61% of people prefer doughnuts to muffins.
But among those who prefer Leno to Letterman, 74% prefer doughnuts to muffins.
----------------
51% of people think Mariah Carey has more talent than Christina Aguilera.
But among those who prefer Leno to Letterman, 63% think Mariah Carey has more talent than Christina Aguilera.
----------------
65% of people have brothers.
But among those who prefer Leno to Letterman, 76% have brothers.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to prefer Leno to Letterman if you both:
would rather fight 100 duck-size horses than one horse-size duck
think we’re too generous with foreign aid
NO CORRELATION
People who prefer Leno to Letterman are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
rather have stinky farts than loud farts
say they could never be in a relationship with a smoker
like yogurt
Licorice
58% of people like rock candy.
But among those who like licorice, 71% like rock candy.
----------------
68% of people know the difference between amps, volts, and ohms.
But among those who like licorice, 79% know the difference between amps, volts, and ohms.
----------------
60% of people stay in the movie theater until the credits end.
But among those who like licorice, 69% stay in the movie theater until the credits end.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to like licorice if you both:
use shoe polish
have a generally positive opinion about France
NO CORRELATION
People who like licorice are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
Correlated Page 7
