Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power

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by Robert D. Kaplan


  1. David Gilmour, Curzon: Imperial Statesman (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1994), p. 181.

  2. C. Raja Mohan, Crossing the Rubicon: The Shaping of India’s New Foreign Policy (New York: Penguin, 2003), p. 204.

  3. Ibid.

  4. George Friedman, “The Geopolitics of India: A Shifting, Self-Contained World,” Stratfor, December 2008.

  5. Shashi Tharoor, Nehru: The Invention of India (New York: Arcade, 2003), p. 185.

  6. Simon and Rupert Winchester, Calcutta (Oakland, CA: Lonely Planet, 2004), p. 78.

  7. Amartya Sen, “Tagore and His India,” New York Review of Books, June 26, 1997.

  8. Rabindranath Tagore, “Passing Time in the Rain,” in his Selected Short Stories, trans. William Radice (New Delhi: Penguin, 1991), appendix.

  9. See the story “Little Master’s Return” and the translator’s introduction in ibid.

  10. Samuel Huntington, “The Clash of Civilizations?,” Foreign Affairs, Summer 1993.

  11. Quoted in Sen, “Tagore and His India.”

  12. See the letters, Appendix B, in Tagore’s Selected Stories.

  13. Sugata Bose, A Hundred Horizons: The Indian Ocean in the Age of Global Empire (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2006), p. 235.

  14. Ibid., p. 261.

  15. Reprinted from Rabindranath Tagore, Particles, Jottings, Sparks: The Collected Brief Poems, trans. William Radice, (London: Angel Books, 2001). See, too, Bose’s footnote, p. 312, and Chapter Seven, on Tagore, near the end of A Hundred Horizons.

  Chapter 11: Sri Lanka: The New Geopolitics

  1. B. Raman, “Hambantota and Gwadar—an Update,” Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, India, 2009.

  2. For a report on China’s soft power, see Joshua Kurlantzick’s Charm Offensive: How China’s Soft Power Is Transforming the World (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2007).

  3. George F. Hourani, Arab Seafaring in the Indian Ocean in Ancient and Early Medieval Times (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1951), p. 40.

  4. Richard Hall, Empires of the Monsoon: A History of the Indian Ocean and Its Invaders (London: HarperCollins, 1996), pp. 80 and 92.

  5. Sudha Ramachandran, “China Moves into India’s Backyard,” Asia Times, Mar. 13, 2007; Bethany Danyluk, Juli A. MacDonald, and Ryan Tuggle, “Energy Futures in Asia: Perspectives on India’s Energy Security Strategy and Policies,” Booz Allen Hamilton, 2007.

  6. Harsh V. Pant, “End Game in Sri Lanka,” Jakarta Post, Feb. 25, 2009.

  7. Jeremy Page, “Chinese Billions in Sri Lanka Fund Battle Against Tamil Tigers,” The Times (London), May 2, 2009.

  8. Non-American media outlets such as the BBC and Al Jazeera have covered Sri Lanka in greater depth.

  9. K. M. de Silva, Reaping the Whirlwind: Ethnic Conflict, Ethnic Politics in Sri Lanka (New Delhi: Penguin, 1998), p. 8.

  10. Ibid., pp. 19, 82.

  11. John Richardson, Paradise Poisoned: Learning About Conflict, Terrorism and Development from Sri Lanka’s Civil Wars (Kandy, Sri Lanka: International Centre for Ethnic Studies, 2005), pp. 24–27; Kingsley M. de Silva, Managing Ethnic Tensions in Multi-Ethnic Societies (Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 1986), pp. 361–68; Tom Lowenstein, Treasures of the Buddha: The Glories of Sacred Asia (London: Duncan Baird, 2006), pp. 62–66.

  12. Much of the background on the Sinhalese-Tamil conflict comes from Richardson’s neutral and exhaustive book, as well as from de Silva’s equally comprehensive Reaping the Whirlwind.

  13. Narayan Swamy, Tigers of Lanka: From Boys to Guerrillas (New Delhi: Konark, 1994), pp. 40–92; Mary Anne Weaver, “The Gods and the Stars,” New Yorker, Mar. 21, 1988; Richardson, Paradise Poisoned, pp. 351–52, 479–80.

  14. Michael Radu, “How to Kill Civilians in the Name of ‘Human Rights’: Lessons from Sri Lanka,” E-Note, Forein Policy Research Institute, fpri.org, February 2009.

  15. Ibid.

  16. Jakub J. Grygiel, “The Power of Statelessness,” Policy Review, April/May 2009.

  17. Al Jazeera, May 20, 2009.

  18. Emily Wax, “Editor’s Killing Underscores Perils of Reporting in Sri Lanka,” Washington Post, Jan. 15, 2009.

  19. Samuel P. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1968), p. 7.

  20. Interview with Pat Garrett, senior associate, Booz Allen Hamilton.

  Chapter 12: Burma: Where India and China Collide

  1. Washington Post, editorial, Aug. 30, 2007.

  2. Norman Lewis, Golden Earth: Travels in Burma (1952; reprint, London: Eland, 2003), pp. 137–38, 151, 205.

  3. Dana Dillon and John J. Tkacik Jr., “China’s Quest for Asia,” Policy Review, December 2005/January 2006.

  4. Joshua Kurlantzik, “The Survivalists: How Burma’s Junta Hangs On,” New Republic, June 11, 2008.

  5. Greg Sheridan, “East Meets West,” National Interest, November/December 2006.

  6. Thant Myint-U, The River of Lost Footsteps: A Personal History of Burma (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2006), p. 41.

  7. Ibid., pp. 47, 59.

  8. Pankaj Mishra, “The Revolt of the Monks,” New York Review of Books, Feb. 14, 2008.

  9. Martin Smith, Burma: Insurgency and the Politics of Ethnicity (London: Zed, 1991), ch. 2.

  10. Ibid.

  11. Thant Myint-U, River of Lost Footsteps, p. 162.

  12. In The Glass Palace (New York: Random House, 2000), Amitav Ghosh provides a rich, novelistic study of this historical rupture.

  13. Mishra, “Revolt of the Monks.”

  14. Brigadier Bernard Fergusson, The Wild Green Earth (London: Collins, 1946).

  15. Washington Post, Aug. 30, 2007.

  16. Mishra, “Revolt of the Monks.”

  17. James Fallows, “Evil in Burma,” TheAtlantic.com, May 11, 2008.

  Chapter 13: Indonesia’s Tropical Islam

  1. Robert D. Kaplan, Hog Pilots, Blue Water Grunts: The American Military in the Air, at Sea, and on the Ground (New York: Random House, 2007), ch. 3.

  2. Simon Winchester, Krakatoa: The Day the World Exploded; August 27, 1883 (New York: HarperCollins, 2003), pp. 40–41, 320–21.

  3. Ibid., p. 326.

  4. M. C. Ricklefs, A History of Modern Indonesia Since C. 1200 (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1981), p. 10.

  5. Clifford Geertz, Islam Observed: Religious Development in Morocco and Indonesia (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1968), pp. 11–12, 16, 66. Fabian is a reference to the British movement of a century ago that sought social democracy and liberal reform through a gradual, nonrevolutionary approach.

  6. Giora Eliraz, Islam in Indonesia: Modernism, Radicalism, and the Middle East Dimension (Brighton, Eng.: Sussex, 2004), p. 74.

  7. V. S. Naipaul, Among the Believers: An Islamic Journey (New York: Penguin, 1981), pp. 304, 331.

  8. John Hughes, The End of Sukarno: A Coup That Misfired; a Purge That Ran Wild (Singapore: Archipelago, 1967, 2002), pp. 166–69.

  9. Geertz, Islam Observed, p. 65.

  10. Eliraz, Islam in Indonesia, pp. 42–43; Winchester, Krakatoa, pp. 333–34.

  11. Malcolm H. Kerr, Islamic Reform: The Political and Legal Theories of Muhammad Abduh and Rashid Rida (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1966), p. 15.

  12. Geertz, Islam Observed, p. 17.

  13. Eliraz, Islam in Indonesia, pp. 6–8, 14, 20.

  14. Ibid., p. 31.

  15. Geertz, Islam Observed, pp. 61–62.

  16. Andrew MacIntyre and Douglas E. Ramage, “Seeing Indonesia as a Normal Country,” Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Barton, 2008.

  17. Told to the scholar Robert W. Hefner, in Eliraz, Islam in Indonesia, p. 67.

  Chapter 14: The Heart of Maritime Asia

  1. Juli A. MacDonald, Amy Donahue, and Bethany Danyluk, “Energy Futures in Asia: Final Report,” Booz Allen Hamilton, November 2004.

  2. I profiled Singapore in my previous book, Hog Pilots, Blue Water Grunts: The American Military
in the Air, at Sea, and on the Ground (New York: Random House, 2007), ch. 3.

  3. Mohan Malik, “Energy Flows and Maritime Rivalries in the Indian Ocean Region” (Honolulu: Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, 2008).

  4. Ian W. Porter, “The Indian Ocean Rim,” African Security Review, vol. 6, no. 6 (1997). Mentioned by Malik.

  5. G. B. Souza, “Maritime Trade and Politics in China and the South China Sea,” included in Ashin Das Gupta and M. N. Pearson, eds., India and the Indian Ocean, 1500–1800 (Kolkata: Oxford University Press, 1987).

  6. Dorothy Van Duyne, “The Straits of Malacca: Strategic Considerations,” United States Naval Academy, 2007.

  7. Donald B. Freeman, The Straits of Malacca: Gateway or Gauntlet? (Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2003), p. 55.

  8. Patricia Risso, Merchants & Faith: Muslim Commerce and Culture in the Indian Ocean (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1995), p. 90.

  9. Arun Das Gupta, “The Maritime Trade of Indonesia: 1500–1800,” in Ashin Das Gupta and Pearson, India and the Indian Ocean (New Delhi: Sage, 1987); Satish Chandra, The Indian Ocean: Explorations in History, Commerce and Politics (New Delhi: Sage, 1987), pp. 181–82.

  10. Michael Leifer, Malacca, Singapore, and Indonesia (Alphen aan den Rijn, the Netherlands: Sijthoff & Noordhoff, 1978), p. 9. See, too, Van Duyne, “Straits of Malacca.”

  11. Van Duyne, “Straits of Malacca.”

  12. Han van der Horst, The Low Sky: Understanding the Dutch, trans. Andy Brown (The Hague: Scriptum, 1996), pp. 29, 85, 127; Geert Mak, Amsterdam: A Brief Life of the City, trans. by Philipp Blom (London: Harvill, 1995, 2001), p. 1.

  13. Van der Horst, Low Sky, pp. 90–91.

  14. J. H. Plumb, introduction to C. R. Boxer, The Dutch Seaborne Empire, 1600–1800 (London: Hutchinson, 1965).

  15. Mak, Amsterdam, p. 120.

  16. Boxer, Dutch Seaborne Empire, p. 29. Much of the material in this section on the Dutch empire is based on this classic book.

  17. Mak, Amsterdam, pp. 120–21.

  18. Alan Villers, Monsoon Seas: The Story of the Indian Ocean (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1952), pp. 166–67.

  19. Plumb, introduction to Boxer, Dutch Seaborne Empire.

  20. Boxer, Dutch Seaborne Empire, pp. 50, 102.

  21. Holden Furber, Rival Empires of Trade in the Orient, 1600–1800 (New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2004), p. 36.

  22. Apud E. du Perron, De Muze van Jan Compagnie (Indonesia: Bandung, 1948), p. 13; also see Boxer, Dutch Seaborne Empire, p. 56.

  23. Ibid.

  24. Boxer, Dutch Seaborne Empire, p. 78.

  25. Mak, Amsterdam, pp. 160–61.

  26. Villiers, Monsoon Seas, p. 177.

  27. Boxer, Dutch Seaborne Empire, p. 273.

  28. Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York: Random House, 1987).

  29. Andrew MacIntyre and Douglas E. Ramage, “Seeing Indonesia as a Normal Country,” Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Barton, 2008.

  30. For a profile of Lee Kuan Yew, see my Hog Pilots, Blue Water Grunts, ch. 3.

  31. Ioannis Gatsiounis, “Year of the Rat: A Letter from Kuala Lumpur,” American Interest, May/June 2008.

  32. Dana Dillon and John J. Tkacik Jr., “China’s Quest for Asia,” Policy Review, December 2005/January 2006.

  33. Hugo Restall, “Pressure Builds on Singapore’s System,” Far Eastern Economic Review, Sept. 5, 2008.

  PAR

  Chapter 15: China’s Two-Ocean Strategy?

  1. William H. McNeill, The Rise of the West: A History of the Human Community (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963), p. 565.

  2. Gabriel B. Collins et al., eds., China’s Energy Strategy: The Impact on Beijing’s Maritime Policies (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2008).

  3. Toshi Yoshihara and James Holmes, “Command of the Sea with Chinese Characteristics,” Orbis, Fall 2005.

  4. Ibid.

  5. Andrew Erickson and Lyle Goldstein, “Gunboats for China’s New ‘Grand Canals’?” Naval War College Review, Spring 2009.

  6. James R. Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara, Chinese Naval Strategy in the 21st Century: The Turn to Mahan (New York: Routledge, 2008), pp. 52–53.

  7. Nicholas J. Spykman, America’s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power, with an introduction by Francis P. Sempa (1942; New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction, 2007), p. xvi. The phrase first appeared in Spykman and Abbie A. Rollins, “Geographic Objectives in Foreign Policy II,” American Political Science Review, August 1939.

  8. Donald B. Freeman, The Straits of Malacca: Gateway or Gauntlet? (Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2003), p. 77.

  9. Juli A. MacDonald, Amy Donahue, and Bethany Danyluk, “Energy Futures in Asia: Final Report,” Booz Allen Hamilton, 2004.

  10. Jakub J. Grygiel, Great Powers and Geopolitical Change (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006), pp. 142–48.

  11. Aaron L. Friedberg, The Weary Titan: Britain and the Experience of Relative Decline, 1895–1905 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1988).

  12. Fariborz Haghshenass, “Iran’s Asymmetric Naval Warfare,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, September 2008.

  Chapter 16: Unity and Anarchy

  1. Ben Simpfendorfer, The New Silk Road: How a Rising Arab World Is Turning Away from the West and Rediscovering China (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009), p. 1.

  2. Nicholas J. Spykman, America’s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power (1942; reprint, New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction, 2008).

  3. Simpfendorfer, New Silk Road, p. 40; Ulrich Jacoby, “Getting Together,” Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, June 2007.

  4. Andrew Droddy, “The Silent Scramble for Africa,” United States Naval Academy, 2006.

  5. Alex Vines and Elizabeth Sidiropolous, “India and Africa,” TheWorldToday.org, 2008; Vibhuti Hate, South Asia Monitor, Center for Strategic and International Studies, June 10, 2008.

  6. Sharon Burke, “Natural Security,” working paper, Center for a New American Security, June 2009.

  7. Mohan Malik, “Energy Flows and Maritime Rivalries in the Indian Ocean Region” (Honolulu: Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, 2008); “Opportunity Knocks: Africa’s Prospects” and “Everything to Play For: Middle East and Africa,” Economist, Oct. 9 and Nov. 19, 2008; Sarah Childress, “In Africa, Democracy Gains Amid Turmoil,” Wall Street Journal, June 18, 2008; Tony Elumelu, “Africa Stands Out,” TheWorldToday.org, May 2009.

  8. Robert D. Kaplan, The Ends of the Earth (New York: Random House, 1996), p. 7; Spykman, America’s Strategy in World Politics, p. 92.

  9. Robert D. Kaplan, “The Coming Anarchy,” Atlantic Monthly, February 1994.

  10. Janet L. Abu-Lughod, Before European Hegemony: The World System A.D. 1250–1350 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1989), p. 12.

  11. “Opportunity Knocks,” Economist.

  12. Alan Villiers, Monsoon Seas: The Story of the Indian Ocean (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1952), pp. 208, 210.

  13. Ross E. Dunn, The Adventures of Ibn Battuta: A Muslim Traveler of the 14th Century (London; Croom Helm, 1986), p. 219; Simon Digby, “The Maritime Trade of India,” in Tapan Ray Chaudhuri and Irfan Habib, eds., The Cambridge Economic History of India, vol. I (Cambridge, Eng.: Cambridge University Press, 1982), p. 152. See, too, Patricia Risso, Merchants & Faith: Muslim Commerce and Culture in the Indian Ocean (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1995), p. 53.

  14. Jakub J. Grygiel, Great Powers and Geopolitical Change (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006), p. 153.

  15. George F. Hourani, Arab Seafaring in the Indian Ocean in Ancient and Early Medieval Times (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1951), pp. 55, 113–14.

  16. Fernand Braudel, The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Philip II, vol. 2 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1996), pp. 865, 869.

  17. Richard J. N
orton, “Feral Cities,” Naval War College Review, Fall 2003. See, too, Matthew M. Frick, “Feral Cities, Pirate Havens,” Proceedings, Annapolis, MD, December 2008.

  18. Donald B. Freeman, The Straits of Malacca: Gateway or Gauntlet? (Montreal: McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2003), p. 175.

  19. Michael Pearson, The Indian Ocean (New York: Routledge, 2003), p. 127.

  20. Freeman, Straits of Malacca, p. 175.

  21. Sugata Bose, A Hundred Horizons: The Indian Ocean in the Age of Golden Empire (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2006), pp. 45–47.

  22. Abdulrazak Gurnah, Desertion (New York: Anchor, 2005), p. 83.

  23. John Keay, The Honourable Company: A History of the English East India Company (London: HarperCollins, 1991), pp. 255–56.

  24. Basil Lubbock, The Opium Clippers (Boston: Lauriat, 1933), pp. 8, 181.

  25. Freeman, Straits of Malacca, pp. 174–79, 181–83.

  Chapter 17: Zanzibar: The Last Frontier

  1. Richard Hall, Empires of the Monsoon: A History of the Indian Ocean and Its Invaders (London: HarperCollins, 1996), pp. 397, 415, 446.

  2. Alan Villiers, Monsoon Seas: The Story of the Indian Ocean (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1952), p. 87.

  3. Ryszard Kapuscinski, The Shadow of the Sun, trans. Klara Glowczewska (New York: Vintage, 2001), p. 83.

  4. Alan Moorehead, The White Nile (London: Hamish Hamilton, 1960), ch. 1.

  5. G. Thomas Burgess, “Cosmopolitanism and Its Discontents,” in Race, Revolution, and the Struggle for Human Rights in Zanzibar (Athens: Ohio University Press, 2009).

  6. Abdul Sheriff, “Race and Class in the Politics of Zanzibar,” Afrika Spectrum, vol. 36, no. 3 (2001).

  7. Abdulrazak Gurnah, Admiring Silence (New York: The New Press, 1996), pp. 66–67.

  8. Ibid., p. 151.

  9. Abdulrazak Gurnah, Paradise (New York: The New Press, 1994), p. 119.

  10. Gurnah, Admiring Silence, p. 131.

  11. Gurnah, Paradise, p. 174.

  12. Abdulrazak Gurnah, Desertion (New York: Anchor, 2005), p. 212.

  13. Gurnah, Admiring Silence, pp. 69, 144, 121, 150.

  14. Gurnah, Desertion, p. 256.

 

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