The Great Deformation

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The Great Deformation Page 100

by David Stockman


  recession (1953–1954) and, 223–225, 226

  recession (1957–1958), 229–230

  taxes and, 87, 220–222, 674

  Truman’s war budget/taxes and, 214–215, 216, 220, 221–222, 231

  Eisenhower Minimum, 84–86, 218, 689–690, 692, 710

  Election reforms

  campaigns and, 672, 673, 707–708

  incumbency and, 673, 707

  overview, 672–674, 707–708

  Electric vehicles/batteries

  fuel efficiency/carbon footprint and, 603–604, 607

  incumbent companies, 602

  stimulus (after 2008 financial crisis), 602–607

  Elliot Capital, 663–664

  Energy sector

  black/green energy lobbies, 694–695

  energy independence and, 694–695

  problems overview, 694–695

  See also Green energy; specific companies

  Energy tax, 607–608

  ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund), 188–189

  Eurodollar futures, 310, 311, 312

  Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), 188–189

  Experian, 567–568, 570

  Extended Stay America, 538, 539, 540, 541–542, 544, 545, 547

  ExxonMobil

  shale gas drilling companies and, 522

  stock buybacks/strategy, 457, 458, 459, 460

  Fair Labor Standards Act (1938), 160

  Fannie Mae. See Housing/Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

  Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), 265, 267, 331, 332–333, 338, 339, 340, 344, 373, 378

  Federal Reserve

  beginnings, 88, 197

  design, 176, 208, 209, 268

  monetary central planning beginnings, 285, 289

  purpose, 122, 200–201, 268

  reforms needed, 707

  Treasury Department relationship, 196, 200, 201, 205–207

  “wealth effects” doctrine, 13–15, 20–21, 26, 211–212, 366, 374, 380, 393, 428, 463, 467, 477

  World War II and, 199–200, 201

  See also specific individuals; Wall Street/Federal Reserve

  Financial crisis (2008)

  bank run and, 24–28, 32–33

  as “BlackBerry Panic of 2008,” 45

  compared to meltdowns (1987/2000–2001), 577–578

  denial before, 377–381

  false depression call/comparison, 578–579, 583–588, 593, 595, 612

  false panic of, 32–34, 444–446, 583–588

  interest rates, 445, 446, 503

  liquidation process, 25–26

  “money” vanishing, 402–403

  pre-crisis deficit, 589–591

  stock markets following, 367–368

  urban legends of, 32, 39, 45

  See also Housing bubble (1990s–2000s)

  Financial crisis (2008) aftermath

  factors breaking fall, 585–586

  fear, 583–588

  Great Depression comparison, 585, 586

  household finances, 368–369

  PCE (personal consumption expenditure), 586

  return to pre-crisis conditions, 629–630

  service vs. manufacturing economy effects, 585–588

  social insurance, 590–591

  Financial crisis (2008) bailout

  amounts, 7, 49

  auto loan business example, 444

  “contagion risk” and, 5, 6, 8–9, 10, 12, 19, 26, 27–28, 32–33, 43–44, 399

  dissenters, 19

  effects, 10, 11, 12, 19, 25, 37

  effects without, 19–20, 24–26, 32, 42

  Fed scaring Congress, 8, 9, 10, 32, 33–34, 38, 45–46

  free-market capitalism vs., 12–13, 21

  investigations into, 7, 33

  lack of analysis, 44

  lack of debt reduction, 629

  New Deal legend and, 167

  purpose, 42

  TARP bill/vote, 3, 32, 33–34, 45, 49, 55, 57

  See also specific companies; specific individuals

  Financial crisis of future

  description, 669–671

  free market capitalism and, 671

  Financial futures

  cash settlements and, 311–313

  Eurodollar futures, 310, 311, 312

  Federal Reserve moves and, 302–303

  gambling regulation and, 311–312

  physical delivery and, 310–311, 312–313

  signals from, 302–303

  volatility, 304–305

  See also Chicago “Merc” (CME); Melamed, Leo

  Fink, Larry, 441, 442, 668

  First Data Corporation LBO, 518–519, 530–531

  First Solar

  history, 599–600

  Solyndra vs., 600, 602

  Fiscal cliff

  defense spending and, 680, 681, 692–693

  Keynesian doctrine and, 679–683, 690–691

  as new normal, 682–686, 690–693

  significance, 668–669

  social insurance, 686–688, 692

  tax cuts and, 680, 681

  Wall Street and, 668, 679, 680, 681, 691

  Fisher, Irving

  monetary policies, 183, 186–187, 188, 190–191, 193

  Thomas Amendment and, 183, 186–187, 188

  Fisker Automotive

  federal funding, 602, 606–607

  history/cars, 602–604

  Fisker, Henrik, 603, 604

  “Fixed rule” monetary theory, 261–262, 263, 265, 266, 338

  Floating currencies

  adoption/description, 284

  commodity price inflation examples, 124, 125

  global inflation, 124–126, 133

  gold standard end effects, 56, 60, 109–111, 124–126, 133–135, 176–177, 231

  instability, 289, 296–297, 300–301

  state central banks and, 109–110

  US supporters of, 120, 123, 142, 196, 234, 264

  FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), 265, 267, 331, 332–333, 338, 339, 340, 344, 373, 378

  Food stamp program

  description/problems, 181–182

  growth, 650

  See also Social insurance

  Forbes, 422

  Ford auto company, 572

  Ford, Edsel, 155

  Ford, Gerald

  administration, 304, 305

  New York City request for federal money, 129

  Simon and, 20, 127

  spending/taxes, 87, 126–127, 130–131

  Ford, Henry, 155

  “Fracking” and Wall Street, 522–523

  Freddie Mac. See Housing/Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

  Freescale Semiconductor Inc., 514, 516–518

  Friedman, Milton

  background, 119

  beliefs/doctrines, 43, 142, 172–173, 183, 186, 196, 206, 234, 261–262, 264–265, 285, 495

  Big government legacy, 272–273

  financial futures, 310, 311

  “fixed rule” monetary theory, 261–262, 263, 265, 266, 338

  floating currency and, 14, 142, 196, 234, 260, 264, 273, 274, 284, 285, 288, 295, 302, 312

  Great Depression theories, 42, 184, 186, 243, 268, 269–272, 277

  Nixon and, 260, 274

  open market operations, 267–269

  social insurance, 553

  Wall Street speculation and, 265–267, 278, 284

  Frist, Thomas, 528–529

  Full-employment budget

  Heller/stimulus and, 227–229

  “new economics” and, 227–229, 232

  Nixon and, 121–122, 127, 131

  Future recommendations. See Solutions

  GAFO sales, 651

  “Gain on sale” profit scam, 37–39

  Garman, 488, 489

  Garn-St. Germain bill (1982), 177–178

  Garner, John Nance, 194

  Gates, Bill, 453

  GE Capital, 39, 41

  Geithner, Tim

  monetary policies, 246

  “stress tests,”
666

  General Electric

  bailout, 3, 36–37, 41–42

  before 2008, 356–357, 467–470, 472

  EPS/stock price changes, 467–470, 472

  M&A deals, 472

  stock buybacks, 472

  toxic assets, 3, 35–36

  General Motors

  before financial crisis (2008), 572, 616–618

  DIP loans and, 614, 616–617, 619

  payables-receivables strategy, 617

  strike (1970), 114

  General Motors Acceptance Corporation

  bailout, 40, 42, 576

  subprime auto loans/housing mortgages, 40

  General Motors bailout

  description, 614–616

  downsizing vs., 618–619, 621

  problems overview, 621–623

  reasons for, 619–621

  suppliers, 660, 661, 662, 663

  UAW/wage bill and, 619, 620–621, 660, 662

  See also Lear Corporation

  George, Walter, 194

  Gephardt, Richard, 309

  Gingrich, Newt, 104

  Glass, Carter

  background/doctrines, 142, 176, 197

  FDR/treasury and, 143, 156, 157, 161

  Federal Reserve and, 197, 198, 199, 209, 268, 321

  Glass-Steagall, 13, 168, 176–178, 208, 396, 399

  Glass-Steagall II, 707

  “Global” firm definition, 7

  Gold standard

  British default (1931), 118, 138, 142–143, 149, 153, 182, 240–241, 242, 244

  British devaluation of pound/effects, 252–256, 284

  deterioration of, 247–249, 250–252, 258–259

  European countries (late 1920s–1931), 118, 138, 142–143, 149, 153, 182, 238, 240–241, 242, 244

  FDR actions/effects, 138–139, 140–142, 149, 157, 158, 161–162, 189–190, 192, 194

  flaws, 243–245

  gold pool establishment/history, 246–247, 253–257

  gold selection reasons, 237–238

  Heller-Tobin proposal, 247–249

  history, 235–236, 295–296

  London Economic Conference (1933) and, 139, 143–145, 187, 190, 191

  panic of 1960, 235, 236–237, 243

  restoration by countries (1925–1928), 142

  Thomas Amendment and, 140, 141, 186, 187–188, 190, 193

  US currency swap lines, 250–251, 253

  See also Bretton Woods monetary system

  Gold standard end

  effects, 56–57, 273–275, 281–284

  misunderstanding consequences, 281–287

  Smithsonian Agreement (1971), 282–283

  See also Speculative finance

  “Goldilocks economy,” 233, 377, 443

  Goldman Sachs

  Alltel LBO and, 523

  auto industry bailout and, 664

  Bain Capital and, 562

  before financial crisis (2008), 22–23, 28–29, 384–385

  crash of 1929/Great Depression and, 16, 155

  financial crisis/bailout, 3, 4, 7, 8, 10, 24, 48, 49

  financial futures/options exchanges, 301–302

  inside information and, 493, 502–503

  profits (2009), 3–4

  tax break (2012), 676

  Tesla Motors, 604, 605–606

  toxic assets, 22–23

  without bailout, 6, 8, 20, 22, 24–26

  See also Wall Street growth; specific individuals

  Gore, Al, 309, 604

  Gorman, Joseph, 567–568

  Gramm-Leach-Bliley repeal act (Glass-Steagall), 177

  Great Depression

  bank crisis timing, 154–155

  bank failure causes (1920–1933), 151–155

  consumer prices, 89

  Federal Reserve banks (October 1929–March 1933), 269–272

  global trade and, 145–147

  Hoover recovery and, 148–150, 166, 167

  inventory liquidation, 147, 148

  Keynesian cure and, 148

  myth on recovery, 202

  roots/causes of, 42–43, 137–138, 145–148, 151, 183–184, 225–226

  silver price and, 162

  US exports and, 137–138, 145–147, 151

  See also specific individuals

  Great Inflation, 346, 347, 383, 384, 385, 404–405, 418

  Great Moderation, 250, 345, 365, 380, 381, 431, 443, 454, 490, 504, 508, 512, 530

  Green energy

  energy tax vs., 607–608

  stimulus and, 598–608

  See also specific companies

  Greenberg, Hank, 9–10

  Greenspan, Alan

  background/policies, 13–14, 56, 58, 62, 212, 249–250

  business debt and, 453–454

  debt growth/effects, 62–66, 323

  easing campaign (1987–1992), 349–353

  on “free market” transactions, 471

  gold standard and, 56, 61, 323, 351–352

  Great Depression and, 323

  “home bias” theory, 326–327

  housing boom and, 18

  inflation and, 352, 353–354

  interest rates, 266, 314

  “irrational exuberance,” 330, 331, 334, 336, 358

  LTCM bailout and, 15, 16–17, 62, 141, 319, 332, 334–335, 389, 390–392

  money-printing, 340, 447–448

  old economy and, 325

  prosperity illusion and, 107, 448

  “Put” description/effects, 17–18

  rate cutting (2001), 340–341

  Russian default and, 332–334

  Social Security rescue plan, 98, 102–104

  stock market crash (October 1987), 303, 305, 314–317, 318, 319, 320–321, 350

  TBTF doctrine, 13

  wealth effects doctrine, 13–15, 374

  See also Stock market bubbles; specific events

  Grocery stores/sales, 649–651

  GSE (government-sponsored enterprise)

  description, 170–171, 580

  nationalizing, 171, 580

  See also Housing bubble (1990s–2000s); Housing/Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

  Guardian Savings and Loan, 440

  Guardian Trust Group, 155

  Gutfreund, John, 387

  Haldeman, Bob, 114–115, 117, 122, 284

  Harbour Report, 618

  Harrah’s LBO, 518–519

  Hartford Steam Boiler, 9

  Hazlitt, Henry, 117

  HCA Inc. LBO, 518–519, 524–525, 526, 527, 529

  Health-care inflation, 696–699

  Health care system

  abolishing health insurance, 709–710

  employer health insurance problems, 696–697

  groups priced out of system, 696–697, 698

  problems overview, 696–699

  See also specific components

  Hedge funds

  description/role of, 486–487, 491–494, 499–500, 501–502

  inside information and, 493, 502–503

  John Paulson and, 494–496

  Keynesian foundation/speculation and, 491–492

  liquidity function myth, 490–491

  options/OTC derivatives, 489–490

  SEC regulation and, 496

  statistics on, 486, 494, 499

  Heller, Walter

  deficit-financed tax cuts, 249, 674

  Heller-Tobin proposal, 247–248

  Kennedy and, 226–229, 231, 247–249, 674

  “new economics”/mistakes, 226–229, 247–249

  Hertz, 514

  Hewlett-Packard

  M&A deals, 461, 462–463

  stock buybacks, 457, 461–463

  Hicks, John, 595n

  Hilton Hotels

  “bridge loans” and, 534–535

  LBO, 518–519, 533–536

  Hoover, Herbert

  banking crisis and, 153, 158

  FDR and, 138, 139, 155–156

  gold standard, 190

  Great Depression and, 145, 148–150, 16
6, 167, 315

  letter to president-elect FDR, 155–156

  panic blame and, 156, 158

  policies/beliefs, 138, 345, 673, 674, 689

  Hopkins, Harry, 165

  Hotel construction

  description, 537–538, 546, 547

  LBOs and, 538–542, 545

  Household leverage ratio changes, 642–644

  Housing and Community Development Act (1992), 406–407

  Housing bubble (1990s–2000s)

  adjustable rate mortgages (ARMS), 434

  “Alt-A” mortgages, 429, 435–437, 439

  causes, 17–18, 369, 370

  collapse/effects, 370, 431

  description, 18, 26, 28, 340, 346, 369–370, 374–375, 376–377, 379, 391, 425–427, 430–431

  Fed ignoring problems, 431–432, 433, 436, 437–438

  “flipping” houses, 425, 427

  “gross originations,” 426–427

  GSE background, 405–409

  GSE hidden losses, 410

  GSE speculation, 414

  home builders/stocks, 432–433

  home finance subsidies, 412–413

  home ownership rate, 435

  homeowners’ leveraged buyouts (LBO), 425

  household consumption and, 372–373, 429–430, 537

  household savings and, 369

  HUD ownership strategies, 412–413, 419

  interest rates, 369, 426, 431, 433, 434

  legislation and, 404–405, 408

  MEW (mortgage equity withdrawal), 427–430, 537, 555–556

  money-printing policies, 439–440

  mortgage broker industry, 418–419

  mortgage lender changes, 404–405, 414–416, 418–419, 537

  mortgage securitization, 419–421, 438–440, 441

  partnerships/K street, 141–142

  S&L deregulation/disaster and, 405, 416–418

  “second lien” mortgages, 436–437

  unregulated mortgage brokers/banks, 414–415

  Housing bubble (1990s–2000s) and subprime mortgages

  background, 28–30

  companies involved, 421–422, 440, 441, 442

  description, 421–424, 435–437, 440–442

  Fed and, 433–435

  fraud, 421–423, 424, 440, 441

  GMAC, 40

  interest rates and, 423–424

  “twofer” households, 40

  Housing/Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

  after housing crash, 30, 693

  evolution/problems, 169–172, 405–406, 407–408, 409, 439, 580

  Fannie Mae Foundation/money, 411

  hidden losses, 410

  New Deal origins, 169–171, 172

  speculators and, 414

  stock prices, 407–408

  Housing market (after 2007)

  baby boom retirement effects, 647–648

  down payment amount and, 580

  FHA insurance and, 579–580

  home-buyers’ tax credit/fraud, 580–581

  housing lobby and, 580

  MEW-II doctrine and, 583

  mortgage rate/refinancing, 581–583

  need for reform, 693–694

  Howe, Louis, 144

 

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