by Tim Marshall
Looking further ahead, as we continue to break out of the prison of our geography into the universe, the political struggles will persist in space, at least for the foreseeable future.
A human being first burst through the top layer of the stratosphere in 1961 when twenty-seven-year-old Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin made it into space aboard Vostok 1. It is a sad reflection on humanity that the name of a fellow Russian called Kalashnikov is far better known.
Gagarin, Buzz Aldrin and many others are the descendants of Marco Polo and Christopher Columbus, pioneers who pushed the boundaries and who changed the world in ways they could not have imagined in their own lifetimes. Whether for better or worse is not the point; they discovered new opportunities and new spaces in which peoples would compete to make the most of what nature had put there. It will take generations, but in space, too, we will plant our flags, ‘conquer’ territory, claim ground and overcome the barriers the universe puts in our way.
There are now about 1,100 functioning satellites in space, and at least 2,000 non-functioning ones. The Russians and Americans launched approximately 2,400 of the total, about 100 have come from Japan and a similar number from China, followed by a host of other countries with far fewer. Below them are the space stations, where for the first time people live and work semi-permanently outside the confines of earth’s gravity. Further on, at least five American flags are thought to be still standing on the surface of the moon, and further still, much further, our machines have made it out past Mars and Jupiter, some heading way beyond what we can see and are trying to understand.
It is tempting to think of our endeavours in space as linking humanity to a collective and co-operative future. But first there will continue to be competition for supremacy in outer space. The satellites are not just there to beam back our TV pictures, or to predict the weather: they also spy on other countries, to see who is moving where and with what. In addition, America and China are engaged in developing laser technology, which can be used as weapons, and both seek to ensure that they have a missile system that can operate in space and nullify the competition’s version. Many of the technologically advanced nations are now making preparations in case they need to fight in space.
When we are reaching for the stars, the challenges ahead are such that we will perhaps have to come together to meet them: to travel the universe not as Russians, Americans or Chinese but as representatives of humanity. But so far, although we have broken free from the shackles of gravity, we are still imprisoned in our own minds, confined by our suspicion of the ‘other’, and thus our primal competition for resources. There is a long way to go.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
General references
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Dodds, Klaus, Geopolitics: A Very Short Introduction (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007)
Ikenberry, G. John, ‘The Illusion of Geopolitics’, Foreign Affairs (May/June 2014)
Keegan, John, Atlas of World War Two (London: Harper Collins, 2006)
Mackinder, Halford John, ‘The Geographical Pivot of History’, The Geographical Society, Vol. 23, No. 4 (April 1904), 421–37
Mackinder, Halford John, Democratic Ideals and Reality, 1919
Mead, Walter Russell, ‘The Return of Geopolitics’, Foreign Affairs (May/June 2014)
Monmonier, M., How to Lie with Maps (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1996)
Parry, Chris, Super Highway: Sea Power in the 21st Century (London: Elliott & Thompson, 2014)
Pickles, John, A History of Spaces: Cartographic Reason, Mapping and the Geo-Coded World (London: Routledge, 2004)
Roberts, S., Secor, A., and Sparke, M., ‘Neoliberal Geopolitics’, Antipode, Vol. 35, No. 5 (November 2003), 886–97.
The Times Atlas of World History (London: Times Books, 2000)
The Times Comprehensive Atlas of The World, 12th edition (London: Times Books, 2007)
Weigley, Russell F., The American Way of War (Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press, 1973)
Russia
Eberstadt, Nicholas, ‘Russia’s Peacetime Demographic Crisis: Dimensions, Causes, Implications’ (National Bureau of Asian Research, 2010)
Kennan, George F., ‘The Sources of Soviet Conduct’, Foreign Affairs (July 1947)
‘Russia’s accusations – setting the record straight’, NATO Fact Sheet (April 2014)
China
Beardson, Timothy, Stumbling Giant: The Threats to China’s Future (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2013)
Boehm, Dana Carver, ‘China’s Failed War on Terror: Fanning the Flames of Uighur Separatist Violence’, Berkley Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Law, Vol. 2, No. 1:3 (2009)
De Crespigny, Rafe, China This Century (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992)
Holmes, James, ‘When China Rules the Sea’, Foreign Policy (September 2015)
Kaplan, Robert D., The Revenge of Geography (London: Random House, 2012)
Lewis, Martin, ‘East Asia’, Stanford University Global Geopolitics Lectures, East Asia (15 January 2008)
Shaughnessy, Edward L. (ed.), China: Empire and Civilization (London: Duncan Baird Publishers, 2005)
Theroux, Paul, Riding the Iron Rooster (London: Hamish Hamilton, 1988)
USA
Commager, S., Documents of American History Volume 1: to 1898 (10th Edition) (New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1988)
Kagan, Robert, Dangerous Nation: America and the World, 1600–1898 (London: Atlantic Books, 2006)
Pei, Minxin, ‘How America and China See Each Other’, Foreign Affairs (March/April 2014)
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US Department of State, ‘Rise to World Power, 1867–1913’, A Short History of the Department of State (history.state.gov/ departmenthistory/short-history)
Africa
Bloom, David E. and Sachs, Jeffrey D., ‘Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa’, Harvard Institute for International Development, Harvard University (October 1998)
Chaves, Isaías, Engerman, Stanley L. and Robinson, James A., ‘Reinventing the Wheel: The Economic Benefits of Wheeled Transportation in Early Colonial British West Africa’, February 2012 (http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/jrobinson/files/the_wheel_in_africa_february_2012.pdf)
Kasperson, Roger E. and Minghi, Julian V., The Structure of Political Geography (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 2011)
Western Europe
Kagan, Robert, Of Paradise and Power (New York: Random House, 2003)
Ottens, Nick, ‘ “Too Big for Europe”: The Recurring German Problem’, Atlantic Sentinel, 28 April 2014
Speck, Ulrich, ‘Power and Purpose: German Foreign Policy at a Crossroads’, 3 November 2014 (http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=57167)
Simon, Luis and Rogers, James, ‘The Return of European Geopolitics? All roads run through London’, The RUSI Journal, Vol. 155, No. 3 (2010), 57–63
Turchin, Peter, War and Peace and War (London: Plume Books, 2007)
Middle East
Fisher, Max, ‘40 Maps Which Explain The Middle East’, Vox.com, 5 May 2014 (http://www.vox.com/a/maps-explain-the-middle-east)
Malinowski, Jon C. (ed.), ‘Iraq: A Geography’, United States Military Academy, West Point, New York, 2004 (http://www.usma.edu/gene/SiteAssets/SitePages/Publications/Iraq%20A%20Geography.pdf?Mobile=1)
India and Pakistan
French, Patrick, India: A Portrait (London: Allen Lane, 2011)
‘Geography of India’, MapsofIndia.com, 12 November 2014 (http://www.mapsofindia.com/geography/)
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Kreft, Dr. Heinrich, ‘The Geopolitical Importance of Pakistan’, Institut für Strategie- Politik- Sicherheits- und Wirtschaftsberatung (ISPSW), 15 February 2008
Musharraf, P
ervez, In The Line Of Fire: A Memoir (New York: Free Press, 2008)
Latin America
Keen, Benjamin and Haynes, Keith, A History of Latin America, Volume 1 (Wadsworth: Cengage Learning, 2012)
World Economic Forum on Latin America 2011 (http://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-latin-america-2011)
Zovatto, Daniel, ‘Elections in the Southern Cone: Citizens Chose Continuity’, Brookings, 30 October 2014 (http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2014/10/30-democracy-alternation-latin-america-zovatto)
Korea and Japan
Chang, Gordon G., Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes On The World (London: Hutchinson, 2006)
Kim, Seung-Young, American Diplomacy and Strategy Toward Korea and Northeast Asia 1882–1950 and After (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009)
Oberdorfer, Don, The Two Koreas (New York: Basic Books, 2001)
Arctic
Bjarnason, Björn, ‘Climate Change and Iceland’s Role in North Atlantic Security’ (speech), Belfer Center, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard, 26 November 2007
Conant, Eve, ‘Breaking the Ice: Russian Nuclear-Powered Ice-Breakers’, Scientific American blog, 8 September 2012 (http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2012/09/08/breaking-the-ice/)
Grydehøj, Anne, Grydehøj, Adam and Akrén, Maria, ‘The Globalization of the Arctic: Negotiating Sovereignty and Building Communities in Svalbard, Norway’, Island Studies Journal Vol. 7, No. 1 (2012), 99–119
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Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, ‘The Arctic: Exploration Timeline, Polar Discovery’, 2009 (http://polardiscovery.whoi.edu/arctic/330.html)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Many thanks to all those who freely gave of their time, advice and encouragement.
I would like to thank my wife Joanna for her patience and natural spellcheck abilities, Pippa Crane and Jennie Condell at Elliott and Thompson for giving shape and direction to my geographic wanderings, and Ollie Dewis for her encouragement and ideas.
I am grateful to the following for casting their experienced eyes over sections of the book and would like to reiterate that any errors contained therein are my doing and responsibility: James Richards (former official Chinese interpreter to the UK government, Chairman of China Association), Professor James D. Boys (Visiting Senior Research Fellow, Kings College London), David Slinn (former UK Ambassador to North Korea), Joel Richards MA (South American specialist), Kelvin O’Shea (Sky News), Tim Miller (Sky News), Jaksa Scekic (Reuters Belgrade) and Aleksander Vasca (Reuters Belgrade).
Also, thanks to those serving members of governments and the civil service who kindly gave me their expertise, but preferred it to be used without attribution.
INDEX
A
Abdullah, King 152
Abe of Japan, Prime Minister 58
Abkhazia 110
Adams, Henry 68
Adams, John Quincy 69
Addis Ababa 128–129
Aegean Sea 16, 95, 176
Afghanistan vii, xii, 9, 12, 22, 42, 46, 77, 85, 104, 169. 171, 187, 189, 191, 195, 193–198, 200–203, 205, 244, 277
Africa
agriculture 118, 132
China and 58, 124–125, 129, 132, 133–136
climate and terrain 120, 136
diseases 118–120, 136
early empires 120
energy resources 127, 129–132, 134
European influence 120–121
human rights 135
internal conflicts 122–123, 125–133, 139
mineral resources 123, 124, 127, 135, 138–139
North viii, 28, 84, 93, 117
rivers 116, 119–120, 127, 130, 132, 138
size and population 116–117, 123–124, 127, 129, 132, 136, 139
slavery 121
Southern 134, 136–138
trading links 116, 119, 120, 121, 128, 135–136, 138
see also individual countries by name
African National Congress (ANC) 137
Aksai Chin 42
al-Bashir, Omar 135
Al Qaeda xii, 47, 156–157, 162, 196–198, 200, 203
al-Qaradawi, Yusuf 179
Alaska 10, 51, 72, 117, 188, 264, 275
al-Assad, Bashar 155, 175
Alawites 148, 153–155, 171
Albania 7, 14, 99
Algeria 145
Alps Mountains 24, 44, 90, 91
Amazon River 238, 252
American Revolutionary War 66
Amundsen, Roald 266
Andes Mountains 238
Angola 58, 118, 122, 124, 125, 131–132, 134–137
Antarctica 259, 275
Appalachian Mountains 64, 66, 67
Arab-Israeli War 153
Arab Spring 39, 177–178
Arabian Desert 145
Arabian Peninsula 151
Arabian Sea 144, 184, 193, 207
Arctic xiv, xv, 8, 9, 12, 29, 106, 259, 261–278
Arctic Council 271, 277
claims to sovereignty xv, 271, 276
expeditions 265–267, 271
extent of region 264
global warming 264, 268–269
icebreakers 275–276, 278
natural resources 264, 269–271, 277
Northern Sea Route 269
Northwest Passage 265, 266, 269
Russia and the 271
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea 270, 275
Argentina 236, 237, 240, 241, 249, 252–258
Armenia 14, 25, 169
Armitage, Richard 197
Arunachal Pradesh 42, 204
Asia viii, 4–6, 10, 11, 37, 79–80, 174, 176, 193, 213, 218
see also individual countries by name
Assam 192, 205
Atatürk 173–174, 177
Atlantic Ocean 6, 16, 17, 28, 35, 57, 66, 73, 75–77, 91, 93, 101, 104, 106, 116, 117, 119, 131, 132, 134, 137, 176, 237, 243, 247, 248, 253, 258, 259
Australia xiv, 73, 76, 79
Austria 26, 27, 38
Austro-Hungarian Empire 92
Azerbaijan 12, 13
B
Bahrain xvi, 78, 83
Balboa, Vasco Núñez de 248
Balkans vii, xi, xii, 27, 99
Baltic Sea 9, 17, 23 27, 77, 110
Baltic States 7, 9, 21–23, 110, 218
Baluchistan 189, 190, 191, 202
Bangladesh 57, 161, 185, 187, 188, 267, 280–281
Bay of Bengal 57, 184–185, 207, 280
Belarus 12, 14, 27
Belgium 5, 19, 38, 106, 124, 126, 254
Belize 241, 243
Berlin Wall 6
Bert, Melissa 274
Bessarabia see Moldova
Bhutan 185, 204
Bhutto, Benazir 197–198
Bild newspaper 111
bin Laden, Osama 200, 203
Bjarnason, Björn 274
Black Sea 9, 15–17, 21, 24, 25, 27, 77, 91, 144, 175, 176
Boko Haram 130–131
Bolívar, Simón 239
Bolivia 239–241, 253
Bosporus Strait 16, 17
Brahmaputra River 186
Brazil 73, 84, 237, 238, 240, 249, 251–256
BRICS 255
Britain 26, 76, 98, 101, 105–107, 158, 163, 257
Afghanistan and 198–199
Belize and 241
Falkland Islands 255, 257–259, 267
Israel/Palestine and 163
Middle East and 146, 151–152, 198–199
military forces 74–75, 101, 106
USA and 66–67, 74–76
Brunei 55
Bulgaria 7, 14, 26, 27, 91, 99
Burkina Faso 54
Burma 38, 41–42, 57–58, 78, 185, 204, 206, 227
Burundi 125–127, 138
C
California Gold Rush 71
Cameroon 131
Canada xiv, 65,
264–266, 269, 271, 272, 275, 276
Canadian Shield 65
Cape of Good Hope 116–117, 137
Caribbean Sea 57, 73, 84, 237
Catalonia 91
Catherine the Great 9, 20
Caucasus 8, 9, 12, 25, 161, 176
Central African Republic 118, 125
Chad 117, 122, 131
Charles XII of Sweden, King 6
Chechnya, Caucasus 8, 12
Chile 73, 237, 238, 240, 241, 251, 252, 257
China viii, x, xiv, 9, 11, 28–30, 32–59, 73, 76–84, 117, 119, 124, 129 132–135, 179, 185, 191, 193, 203–207, 212, 214, 218, 221–222, 224, 226, 228–231, 246–249, 251, 255, 269, 271, 275, 280, 282
Africa and 58, 124–125, 129, 132, 133–136
Air Defence Identification Zone 53, 54, 81, 229
Arctic and 51, 271, 275
Communist Party 39–40, 42–44, 48–49
early history 35–38
energy resources 82, 133, 135
Han Chinese 35–38, 41, 43–45, 46–48
human rights perspective 43–44, 49
India and 42–43, 192, 193, 203–206, 207
Japan and 52–53
Korea and 212, 216, 218, 221–222
Central/Latin America and 246–249, 251, 255
Middle East and 180
military forces 221
Mongol invasions 38
Navy 34, 35, 50, 53, 55, 56, 57
North China Plain ‘the heartland’ 35
Pakistan and 190–191, 193
Russia and 46
Taiwan and 39, 51, 53–55, 82, 249
Tibet and 36, 39, 42–45, 46, 192, 203–204
USA and 34, 51, 53, 54, 55–57, 76, 78–80, 81, 212, 218, 229–230
Vietnam and 41–2, 55
Xinjiang 38, 39, 44, 45, 46–48
Churchill, Winston 4
Clinton, Hillary 79
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) 14
Colombia 238, 244, 251
colonialism xv, xvi, 122, 124, 126, 127, 130, 136, 148, 156, 177, 185, 195, 236, 239, 250, 252
Communism 6, 9, 29–30, 38, 84, 132, 177, 212, 214–217
China 39–40, 42–44, 48–49, 82, 227
Korea 214, 216, 217
see also Russia/Soviet Union (USSR)
concrete 75, 78, 83, 131
Congo 118, 121
see also Democratic Republic of the Congo
Congo River 119
