html#.VYfCQImqqko.
273 C. Wedler, “Defunct Nuclear Power Plant on California Coast is a ‘Fukushima Waiting to Happen’” August 17, 2018 at https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-17/defunct-nuclear-power-plant-california-coast-fukushima-waiting-happen.
274 Matthew Stein, “Four Hundred Chernobyls: Solar Flares, Electromagnetic Pulses and Nuclear Armageddon,” March 24, 2012, at http://truth-out.org/news/item/7301-400-chernobyls-.
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spent-fuel pool cool for 72 hours. However, according to an article in the ibtimes.com:
Nuclear plants depend on standby batteries and backup diesel generators. Most standby power systems would continue to function after a severe solar storm, but supplying the standby power systems with adequate fuel, when the main power grids are offline for years, could become a very critical problem…
If the spent fuel rod pools at the country’s 104 nuclear power plants lose their connection to the power grid, the current regulations aren’t sufficient to guarantee those pools won’t boil over – exposing the hot, zirconium-clad rods and sparking fires that would release deadly radiation…
A report by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory said that over the standard 40-year license term of nuclear power plants, solar flare activity enables a 33 percent chance of a long-term power loss, a risk that significantly outweighs that of major earthquakes and tsunamis.275
A solar flare is only one dramatic way for the US power grid to col apse. A study by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has concluded that a coordinated terrorist attack on three separate electric systems could col apse the entire US power network.276 “The U.S. could suffer a coast-to-coast blackout if saboteurs knock out just nine of the country’s 55,000 electric-transmission substations on a scorching summer day.” The US power grid has been compared to a big pile of sand, stable until a certain “height” is reached.277 Iranian 275 S. N. Padala, “Severe Solar Storms Could Disrupt Earth this Decade: NOAA,” August 8, 2011, at http://www.ibtimes.com/severe-solar-storms-could-disrupt-earth-decade-noaa-826351.
276 Rebecca Smith, “U.S. Risks National Blackout from Small-Scale Attack,” March 12, 2014, at http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304020104579433670284061220.
277 M. Koren, “How the U.S. Power Grid is Like a Big Pile of Sand,” April 8, 2014, at http://www.nationaljournal.com/tech/how-the-u-s-power-grid-is-like-a-big-pile-of-sand-20140408.
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cyberattacks have already breached cybersecurity at dozens of US
power plants, and in late January 2016, hackers caused a partial shutdown of the grid in Israel.
And then there is nuclear war. There is continuing debate about the effects of limited and all-out global nuclear war. The real y bad news from one study is that nuclear war will “end civilization” with famine, perhaps similar to the movie The Road (2009). The study by International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War and Physicians for Social Responsibility, predicted that a limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan (itself hardly a remote probability278) could kill up to two billion people through nuclear winter, with black carbon aerosol particles reducing food production across the world.279
An all-out nuclear exchange between the US and Russia, or even a threesome with China, could possibly lead to the extinction of the human race. “Let us eat and drink, for tomorrow we shall die”: Isaiah 22:13.
Nothing to Sneeze at: Plagues, Pandemics and Social Breakdown
In the 14th century, the Black Death (the bubonic plague) killed between one third and two thirds of Europe’s population. The Spanish flu, between September and November 1918, killed over 20
million people, almost twice as many as died in World War I. This flu affected about one third of all people on the planet, and as scientific philosopher Quentin Smith has noted, if the infection/death ratio of the Spanish flu (actual y from China) was higher (e.g. the Ebola virus kil s around 90 percent of those affected, the bubonic plague, 278 “Nuclear Weapons Risk Greater than in Cold War, Says Ex-Pentagon Chief,” January 8, 2016, at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/07/nuclear-weapons-risk-greater-than-in-cold-war-says-ex-pentagon-chief.
279 Ira Helfand, Nuclear Famine: Two Bil ion People at Risk? 2nd edition, (International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War and Physicians for Social Responsibility, November, 2013) at, http://www.psr.org/assets/pdfs/two-billion-at-risk.pdf.
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50 percent) “the human race would have become extinct in late 1918
or 1919.”280 This, however, is probably incorrect, as it presupposes an unrealistic infection/death ratio of 100 percent. Nevertheless, human death rates would have been high enough to col apse civilization.
There is some evidence that new variants of avian influenza have, and are incorporating genetic material from other avian influenza strains, so that the viruses may be evolving to become better adapted to infecting humans with a potential pandemic. Ian MacKay, a virologist at the University of Queensland, has said: Each new strain could be one that is better genetical y equipped to transmit from person to person. Without contemporary sequence analysis, such a strain could emerge from among the ‘noise’ of human infection by less efficient strains, to begin spreading rapidly and with pandemic potential.281
A pandemic flu may not natural y arise from viruses with an infection/death ratio approaching or exceeding that of Ebola’s, but a genetical y engineered viral bioterrorist weapon perhaps could.
In December 2011, there were concerns about the journals Science and Nature publishing details of a genetical y altered h5 n1 bird flu virus that was likely to be highly contagious among humans. The US National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity was concerned that terrorists could replicate the experiments and unleash the virus, leading to a pandemic killer flu.282
A pandemic with a high mortality global y would be capable of producing civilizational col apse.283 Some indications that a high 280 Quentin Smith, “Critical Note of John Leslie, The End of the World,” Canadian Journal of Philosophy, vol. 28, no. 3, 1998, pp. 413-434.
281 “Pandemic Potential Seen in Gene Changes of Bird Flu,” at http://www.bloomberg.com/
news/articles/2014-02-13/pandemic-potential-seen-in-gene-changes-of-bird-flu; E. Tsang,
“Doctor Warn of Pandemic Potential of the New H10 N8 Bird Flu Virus,” February 5, 2014, at http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1421212/china-scientists-reveal-second-case-h10n8-raising-alarm-about-bird-flus.
282 R. A. Langlois (et al.), “MicroRNA-Based Strategy to Mitigate the Risk of Gain-of-Function Influenza Studies,” Nature Biotechnology, (August 11, 2013); doi: 10.1038/nbt.2666.
283 D. MacKenzie “Why the Demise of Civilisation May be Inevitable,” New Scientist, 114
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mortality pandemic could do this are the loss of personnel in key industries and the death of technicians. A severe pandemic could hypothetical y threaten the nuclear industry. The death of key service personnel in the transport, fuel and energy industries could have a knock-on effect leading to some of the nightmare scenarios discussed in the previous section. However, even if the nuclear industry is protected, shops and supermarkets will run out of food due to “just-in time” delivery methods, which do not involve having stockpiles of goods beyond a few days’ use on hand. If coal-fired power plants cannot get supplies of coal because of chaos in the transport sector, there could be a destructive ripple effect throughout society causing breakdown. With a breakdown in sewage systems, diseases would spread. The crippling of the financial system will make it difficult to re-establish social order and there could be a downward spiral into chaos, what can be called “the great spiral down.”
Ecological Col apse and Looming Resource
Shortages
So far, we have considered col apse/disorder scenarios that may or may not occur. However, there are ot
her threats that are occurring right now. For example, environmental degradation and climate change may also drive social and civilizational col apse.284 Professor John Beddington, chief science advisor to the UK government said in March 2009 that the world was facing a “perfect storm” of “food shortages, water scarcity, and costly oil by 2030. These developments, plus accelerating climate change and mass migration across national borders could lead to major upheavals.”285 Jonathon Porritt, former April 2, 2008, at http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19826501.500-why-the-demise-of-civilisation-may-be-inevitable.html.
284 H. Weiss and R. S. Bradley, “What Drives Societal Col apse?” Science, vol. 291, 2001, pp.
609-610.
285 J. Beddington, Speech to the GovNet Sustainable Development UK Conference, March 19, 2009, at http://www.gren.org.uk/resources/Beddington’sSpeechatSDUK09.pdf 115
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chair of the UK Sustainable Development Commission, agreed with Beddington, but put the time of the crisis closer to 2020 than 2030, being a “perfect storm” of environmental and economic col apse.286
Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute says in his preface to his book World on the Edge,287 that he does not know how much time civilization has left on a business-as-usual scenario but “the time is more likely measured in years than in decades. We are now so close to the edge that it could come at any time.”
Our civilization may already be approaching its demise, as the late theoretical physicist Professor Stephen Hawking has said: “We are entering an increasingly dangerous period in our history. Our population and our use of the finite resources of the planet earth are growing exponential y along with our technological ability to change the environment for good or ill … It will be difficult enough to avoid disaster in the next 100 years, let alone the next thousand or million.”288
In the first section of this chapter some of our interconnected environmental problems were mentioned including the depletion and/or degradation or water, soil and food resources. Many other such problems can be mentioned. For example, the sustainability of world food production is threatened not only by global climate change (discussed below), but also by more, seemingly humble problems such as “peak phosphorus.”289 Phosphate supplies are becoming increasingly scarce. Phosphorus is a limiting nutrient in agricultural plant growth; it can be recycled (i.e. returned to the soil through the use of sewage sludge composted), but in modern agriculture it is wasted and becomes too dissipated to recycle. Patrick 286 J. Porritt, “Perfect Storm of Environmental and Economic Col apse Closer than You Think,” The Guardian, March 23 2009, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/
mar/23/jonathon-porritt-recession-climate-crisis.
287 L. Brown, World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Col apse, (Earth Policy Institute/W. W. Norton, New York, 2011).
288 Stephen Hawking, “Stephen Hawking: Asking Big Questions about the Universe,” TED
Talk Series, at http://www.ted.com/talks/stephen_hawking_asks_big_questions_about_
the_universe?language=en.
289 D. Cordell (et. al.), “The Story of Phosphorus: Global Food Security and Food for Thought,” Global Environmental Change, vol. 9, 2009, pp. 292-305.
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Déry applied the linearization depletion analysis devised by M. King Hubbert (applied in Hubbert’s case to oil290), to phosphorous. It was concluded that the peak of US phosphorous occurred in 1988, and for the world in 1989.291
Financial analyst Jeremy Grantham has said about the coming shortage of phosphorous (phosphate) and potassium (potash): These two elements cannot be made, cannot be substituted, are necessary to grow all life forms, and are mined and depleted. It’s a scary set of statements. Former Soviet states and Canada have more than 70 percent of the potash. Morocco has 85 percent of all high-grade phosphates. It is the most important quasi-monopoly in economic history. What happens when these fertilizers run out is a question I can’t get satisfactorily answered and, believe me, I have tried. There seems to be only one conclusion: their use must be drastical y reduced in the next 20-40 years or we will begin to starve.292
Peak fertiliser, along with other interacting and compounding problems such as water shortages, land degradation (peak soil), climate change and peak fuel is producing a world food crisis Grantham argues, and this food crisis is unlikely to disappear until global population peaks and considerably declines.293 Already grain productivity has fallen each decade since 1970 from 3.5 to 1.5 percent.
Genetic engineering could result in more efficient genes being inserted in plants such as rice and wheat in 20-30 years’ time, which could increase outputs by up to 50 percent. However, to feed 9+
billion people by 2050 will require an increase in food production by 290 M. King Hubbert, “Degree of Advancement of Petroleum Exploration in United States,”
AAPG Bulletin, Nov. 1967, vol. 51, no. 11, pp. 2207-2227.
291 Patrick Dery and Bart Anderson, “Peak Phosphorus,” Energy Bul etin, August 13, 2007, at http://www.energybulletin.net/node/33164.
292 Jeremy Grantham, “Be Persuasive. Be Brave. Be Arrested (If Necessary),” Nature, vol.
491, 2012, p. 303.
293 Jeremy Grantham, “Welcome to Dystopia! Entering a Long-Term and Political y Dangerous Food Crisis,” GMO Quarterly Letter, July 2012, at http://f2cfnd.org/wp-content/
uploads/2012/09/GMOQ2Letter.pdf
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60-100 percent of present day levels. Grantham concludes: “If food pressures recur and are reinforced by fuel price increases, the risks of social col apse and global instability increase to a point where they probably become the major source of international confrontations.”294
Further: “[i]n the longer term…energy costs and absolute shortage in the case of oil form a serious problem second only to food shortages and will result in prices so high they will impact global growth and even the viability of modern, rather fragile, economies.”295 There will be “soaring commodity prices and impending shortages” because humanity is simply running out of raw materials.
In conclusion, Grantham believes, as do many environmentalists, that the world human population is now unsustainable and that the Earth can only sustainably support 1.5 billion people, not 7 + or 9
+ billion – hence most people are, in the future, going to starve to death.
There are looming shortages of many metal stocks. Gordon (et.
al.) concluded that “virgin stocks of several metals appear inadequate to sustain the modern ‘developed world’ quality of life for all Earth’s peoples under contemporary technology.”296 Global supplies of platinum are diminishing and there is no synthetic alternative for this chemical element.297 China produces 97 percent of the world’s rare earth metal such as indium (used in making lcds for flat-screen tvs) and gallium (used in indium gallium arsenide semiconductors), and these and other rare earths are used in a wide-range of high tech devices, from giant electromagnets in wind turbines to satellite components. Shortages of these “alternative energy minerals” may trigger a trade war or even a shooting war, if military hardware still works.298
294 As above, p. 3.
295 As above, p. 4.
296 R. B. Gordon (et al.), “Metal Stocks and Sustainability,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 103, 2006, pp .1209-1214.
297 D. Cohen, “Earth’s Natural Wealth: An Audit,” May 23 2007, at http://www.
sciencearchive.org.au/nova/newscientist/027ns_005.htm.
298 “Shortages of Alternative Energy Minerals May Trigger Trade Wars,” November 1 2010, at
http://www.tgdaily.com/sustainability-features/52283-shortage-of-alternative-energy-118
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Alice Friedemann has observed that “computers are the top card in the house-of-cards complex civilization we built with coal and oil, and computers will be the first to go w
hen supply chains fail.”299
Further:
[a]s global shipping, factories, and countries have a hard time keeping the lights on, computers will stop being made as supply chains breakdown. If even one of the dozens of types of single-sourced equipment or pure chemical supplies goes out of business, the assembly line stops.300
Human knowledge is increasingly being preserved using computer technology, with libraries often getting only electronic versions of scientific journals, and e-books. Computers are too vulnerable for the preservation of knowledge as they,
are the top cards in the civilization house of cards. Knock out any below and it all crumbles. Computers have too many complex, energy intensive inputs and dependencies.301
Some human knowledge could be preserved on archival paper, which at ideal temperatures can last up to 500 years and words can be etched into metallic substances to preserve knowledge for a coming Dark Age, but since the status quo is “comfortably numb,” convinced that our present society is invulnerable, little will be done to save human knowledge. When the spiral down to chaos happens, much of the knowledge, which we now take for granted, will be lost. Welcome to the new Dark Age of barbarism.
minerals-will-trigger-trade-wars.
299 Alice Friedemann, “Peak Oil and the Preservation of Knowledge,” Energy Bul etin, January 7, 2006 at http://www2.energybulletin.net/node/18978.
300 As above.
301 Friedemann, as above; Thomas E. Hecker, “The Twilight of Digitization is Now,” Journal of Scholarly Publishing, vol. 35, no. 1, October, 2003, pp. 52-65.
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Peak Energy
The American Left, especial y the Progressive movement, is the most delusional, ineffective, and compromised political worm ball I have experienced, past and present. I view the entire American political and economic system as broken and corrupt, subservient to corporate/financial interests and an economic paradigm (based on fiat currency, fractional reserve banking, and debt-based expansion) which demands infinite growth. That economic pyramid scheme—that mandate for infinite growth—is the beast which has driven us headlong into the unyielding steel wall of Peak Oil and the edge of the cliff lying just beyond.302
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