C) per decade, compared to the 1951-2012 trend of 0.12 C (0.08 to 0.14
C) per decade.367
Even granting the reality of the “pause,” the decade of the 2000s is the warmest decade in the record of global mean surface temperatures.368 The World Meteorological Organization regarded the period 2001-2010 as the warmest since records began in 1850.369
The World Meteorological Organization said that 2014 was tied with 2010 as the hottest year on record, with the global average temperature for January to October being 0.57 C above average, and in their January 18, 2018 statement, this claim was also revised to claim that 2016 was the warmest on record, 1.2 C above the preindustrial era.370
Average global temperatures were the highest in 136 years in July 2015
due to record warming of the oceans. The combined sea and land 365 As above.
366 M. Wegmann (et al.), “Arctic Moisture Source for Eurasian Snow Cover Variations in Autumn,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 10, 2015; doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/054015.
367 Stocker (et al.), as above, p. 37.
368 As above, p. 61.
369 World Meteorological Organization, The Global Climate 2001-2010: A Decade of Climate Extremes, Summary Report, (World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 2013), p.3.
370 “WMO Confirms 2017 Among the Three Hottest Years on Record,” January 18, 2018, at http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-global-temperatures-2017-20180118-story.html.
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temperature in July 2015 was 16.61 C, 0.81 C above the 20th century average of 15.8 C.371
There is considerable scientific controversy about the cause of the
“pause” and even if it real y existed. The ipcc, for example say that it is real but due to natural variability, with reduced radiative forcing because of volcanic eruptions and a less-active phase of the sun.372
However, if a time series of unweighted 11-year average temperatures is used, with a removal of year-to-year variations caused by volcanic eruptions, a global warming trend exists.373 The alleged “pause,”
based on a short time frame, may not be statistical y significant.374
Others believe that the “pause” may indicate that estimates of climate sensitivity (the equilibrium temperature in response to a doubling of co ) needs to be revised down,375 but many authorities disagree.376
2
There is debate about the idea that the deep oceans have absorbed the
“missing heat,” with one research team at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, claiming to have identified an “anthropogenic warming signature” in the upper (0-700 meters) of the ocean, with one third of the accumulated heat occurring below 700 meters.377
Evidence of an increase in the acidity of the oceans from preindustrial times, is but one argument for co being absorbed by the 2
oceans.378
371 “Global Summary Information – July 2015,” at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/
summary-info/global/201507.
372 Stocker (et. al. eds.), as above, p. 63; Y. Kosaka and S.-P. Xie, “Recent Global-Warming Hiatus Tied to Equatorial Pacific Surface Cooling,” Nature, vol. 501, 2013, pp. 403-407.
373 K. Cowtan and R. G. Way, “Coverage Bias in the HadCRUT4 Temperature Series and its Impact on Recent Temperature Trends,” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol. 140, 2014, pp. 1935-1944.
374 D. R. Easterling and M. F. Wehner, “Is the Climate Warming or Cooling?” Geophysical Research Letters, vol.36, 2009, L08706; doi: 10.1029/2009GL037810 cited p. 1.
375 A. Otto (et al.), “Energy Budget Constraints on Climate Response,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 6, 2013, pp. 415-416.
376 The Geological Society, An Addendum to the Statement on Climate Change: Evidence from the Geological Record, (December, 2013), at http://www.geolsoc.org.uk/climaterecord.
377 P. J. Gleckler (et al.), “Industrial-Era Global Ocean Heat Uptake Doubles in Recent Decades,” Nature Climate Change, (2016); doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2915.
378 J-P. Gattuso (et al.), “Contrasting Futures for Ocean and Society from Different CO 2
Emissions Scenarios,” Science, vol. 349, 2015, pp. aac4722-1 – aac4722-10.
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Scientists, including those of noaa’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, see ocean warming from climate change as “unstoppable.”379 Recent research also refutes the notion that it will take decades for the climate system to respond to an increase in co – maximum warming may occur in as little as one decade.380 The 2
evidence from ocean heating has led to some climate researchers, such as Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, to believe that the “pause” is now over and that a period of rapid warming is now beginning.381
Victor and Kennel have proposed that the measure of global average temperature is not a good measure of climate stress.382 It is beyond the scope of this book to evaluate this debate further, but –
none of the scientists believe that global warming is not occurring.
Indeed, there is weighty opinion that the ipcc consensus on climate change is far too conservative.
In August 2008, the former chair of the ipcc Bob Watson, said that the world should work on mitigation and adaption strategies for a 4 C warming, as the world has probably surpassed co limits.383
2
Sea levels could rise by one meter per century, destroying land now occupied by 145 million people. Abrupt climate change, triggered by positive feedback mechanisms, such as tundra methane release, could melt the ice of Greenland and Antarctica, ultimately leading to a catastrophic sea level rise.384
379 S. Goldenberg, “Warming of Oceans Due to Climate Change is Unstoppable, Say US
Scientists,” July 17, 2015, at http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/16/warming-of-oceans-due-to-climate-change-is-unstoppable-.
380 K. L. Ricke and K. Caldeira, “Maximum Warming Occurs about One Decade after a Carbon Dioxide Emission,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 9, 2014, 124002.
381 M. Le Page, “Earth Now Halfway to Warming Limit,” New Scientist, August 1, 2015, pp.
8-9.
382 D. G. Victor and C. F. Kennel, “Ditch the 2°C Warming Goal,” Nature, vol. 514, 2014, pp.
30-31.
383 J. Rockstrom (et. al.), “A Safe Operating Space for Humanity,” Nature, vol. 461, 2009, pp. 472-475; https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/may/10/carbon-dioxide-highest-level-greenhouse-gas.
384 R. E. Kopp (et al.), “Temperature-Driven Global Sea-Level Variability in the Common Era,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, February 22, 2016, at www.pnas.org/
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James Hansen (et al.) note that ice sheets in contact with the ocean face non-linear disintegration from ocean warming and they predict a sea level rise of up to 3 meters by the end of the 21st century, rather than the 0.9 meters predicted by the ipcc. A sea level rise of + 5-9 meters occurred in a prior interglacial period less than 1 C
warmer than the present and human-caused climate change forcing is stronger than this.385 Hansen (et al.) concluded that “[i]t is not difficult to imagine that conflicts arising from forced migrations and economic col apse might make the planet ungovernable, threatening the fabric of civilization.”386
The oecd’s Environmental Outlook to 2050, hardly a radical
“green” publication, predicts that global greenhouse emissions will rise by 50 percent by 2050 on a business-as-usual scenario, and co emissions by 70 percent, leading to a rise in global average 2
temperatures of 3-6 C by 2100.387 These changes are likely to exceed tipping points, leading to abrupt climate change and runaway greenhouse effects. This “catastrophic climate change” will lead to 2.3
billion people facing severe water stress, and air pol ution alone is likely to mean that 3.6 million premature deaths
occur in China and India. A global average temperature rise of 4 C would see the “lungs of the world,” the Amazon rainforest, shrinking by 85 percent, which in-itself could constitute a positive feedback mechanism accelerating even further climate change.388
cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1517056113.
385 J. Hansen (et al.), “Ice Melts, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 20 C Global Warming is Highly Dangerous,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 15, 2015, pp. 20059-20179.
386 See M. Le Page, “Superstorms Possible Even with ‘Safe’ 2 0 C Rise,” New Scientist, August 1, 2015, p. 9.
387 P. Love, “OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: We’re All Doomed,” OECD Insights, March 19, 2012, at http://oecdinsights.org/2012/03/19/oecd-environmental-outlook-to-2050-were-all-doomed.
388 D. Adam, “Amazon Could Shrink by 85% Due to Climate Change, Scientists Say,”
The Guardian, March 11, 2009, at http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/11/
amazon-global-warming-trees.
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bp in its Energy Outlook 2030 389 predicts that by 2030 there will be 15 percent more oil, 26 percent more coal and 46 percent more natural gas being consumed than at present, leading to 4 C
warming in the 21st century. The International Energy Agency (iea) in Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map (2013),390 sees growing use of fossil fuels, such as coal, leading to global temperatures rising in this century from 3.6 C to 6 C; 3.5 C, over pre-industrial levels by 2040; 4 C by 2050 and 6 C by 2100. After 2017, (and it is now 2019), it may be impossible to reverse trends because “our energy system—power plants, the industry sector, the transport sector—will be locked into the capital investments in a way they will use fossil fuel energies.”391
The International Energy Agency believes that the development of low-carbon energy systems will be too slow to stop this extreme global warming.392
Pricewaterhousecoopers’ report, Too Late for Two Degrees? (2012), doubts that warming can be held to 2 C and may reach 4 C or even 6
C. Leo Johnson says in the foreword to this report: “Even doubling our current rate of decarbonization, would still lead to emissions consistent with 6 degrees of warming by the end of this century. To give ourselves a more than 50% chance of avoiding 2 degrees will require a six-fold improvement in our rate of decarbonisation.”393
The 2 C carbon budget requires world cuts in carbon intensity by 5.1 percent each year from now until 2050, but as Johnson says, this
“required rate of decarbonisation has not been seen in a single year since the mid-20th century when these records began.”394 Hence, 389 BP, Energy Outlook 2030, (January, 2013) at http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/
statistical-review/BP_World_Energy_Outlook_booklet_2013.pdf.
390 International Energy Agency, Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map: World Energy Outlook Special Report (International Energy Agency, Paris, 2013).
391 F. Montaigne, “An Influential Global Voice Warns of Runaway Emissions,” June 11, 2012, at http://e360.yale.edu/feature/fatih_birol_iea_economist_on__risk_of_climate_
change/2537.
392 “Clean Energy Process too Slow to Limit Global Warming – Report,” April 17, 2013, at http://
www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/17/carbon-energy-warming-idUSL5N0CX3I020130417.
393 Pricewaterhousecoopers LLP, Too Late for Two Degrees? Low Carbon Economy Index 2012, (PricewaterhouseCoopers, November, 2012), p. 1.
394 As above, p. 2.
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it is unlikely that global warming will be limited to 2 C.395 Climatic doomsday is inevitable.
The assessments just considered are highly pessimistic,
“doomsday” of course, yet they are not from environmentalist groups, but from respectable business organizations. Those who dismiss climate change as a “conspiracy” (conservatives, many Christian groups, Big Business groups) should hesitate to do so, because the support for climate change comes from a wide range of sources, while opposition is largely from Big Business groups who have the most to lose. Cult-like Christian conservative groups, who oppose climate change because of “New World Order” concerns, are strangely silent on most other nwo-like issues that are way too difficult for their over-spiritual worldview. Don’t tell anyone, but there has been a globalized world, a rule of the corporate elite, more constraining than any world government, for some time, a spawn of the liberal/conservative’s cherished capitalism.
We can also mention the report by the World Bank, Turn Down the Heat (2012),396 the National Research Council, Climate and Social Stress (2012)397 and the National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2030,398 all of which give a much more alarming view of climate change than the more conservative ipcc. In other words, there is weighty Establishment opinion supporting a climate disaster thesis.
In general, these reports assume a “business-as-usual” approach, where fossil fuel use increases, primarily through the use of “dirty”
sources such as unconventional oil and gas.
One critique of this is that such large temperature increases are unlikely as there is too little oil/fossil fuel left.399 Thus, peak oil 395 G. A. Jones and K. J. Warner, “The 21st Century Population-Energy-Climate Nexus,”
Energy Policy, vol. 93, 2016, pp. 206-212.
396 World Bank, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4° C World Must be Avoided, (World Bank, Washington DC, 2012).
397 National Research Council, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis (National Academy of Sciences, Washington DC, 2012).
398 National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds (Central Intelligence Agency, Washington DC, 2012).
399 J. D. Ward (et. al.), “High Estimates of Supply Constrained Emissions Scenarios for 141
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theorist K. Alexlett predicts a 21st century temperature rise of 1.5 to 2 C.400 However, even at the upper end of this prediction, extreme climate change could still occur.
The idea that peak oil will save us from climate change is wrong.
There are still abundant masses of hydrocarbons, not sufficient to sustain the global consumer society for much longer, but enough to cause, if all or most are used, the worst-case climate catastrophe.401
Carbon-based fuel, according to most authorities, will continue to meet world energy demands.402 China is building coal-fired power plants like there is no tomorrow – because there is not likely to be. An average global temperature increase of 2 C is considered to constitute dangerous climate change where tipping points are reached, such as the complete loss of Arctic summer sea ice and the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. A 4 C change will make many already hot regions of the world simply unlivable, and lead to events such as extensive melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet and a global sea level rise of up to 5 meters. A 6 C rise will melt all polar ice403 and could spell by itself the end of human civilization, with a massive die off of the world’s population.404
The other argument against the idea that peak oil will save us from climate change (even though it would itself lead to a col apse of civilization perhaps more catastrophic in the short-term than climate change), is that positive feedback mechanisms which accelerate climate change are already beginning to act; such mechanisms include vegetation changes, ice sheet changes, ocean circulation and Long-Term Climate Risk Assessment, Energy Policy, vol. 51, 2012, pp. 598-604.
400 K. Aleklett, Peeping at Peak Oil (Springer, New York, 2012), p. 253.
401 Richard Heinberg, Snake Oil, as above, pp. 123-124.
402 I. Cronshaw, “The Current and Future Importance of Coal in the World Energy Economy,” Energy Policy Institute of Australia, Public Policy Paper No. 5/2014, at http://
www.energypolicyinstitute.com.au/images/Policy_Paper_Jan2014_Ian_Cronshaw_5-2014.
pdf.
403 K. Ander
son, “What They Won’t Tell You about Climate Catastrophe,” November 12, 2012, at http://www.ecoshock.info/2012/11/kevin-anderson-what-they-wont-tell-you.html.
404 J. R. Schramski (et al.), “Human Domination of the Biosphere: Rapid Discharge of the Earth-Space Battery Foretel s the Future of Humankind,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 112, 2015, pp. 9511-9517.
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biogeochemical cycling and other mechanisms.405 For example, a study by Eric Rignot of the retreat of ice in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica has concluded that the col apse of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet has already begun and is now “unstoppable.”406
Glacier grounding lines are retreating by kilometers each year. A sea level rise of one meter worldwide from this will trigger the loss of the rest of the ice (over a period of two centuries) and a sea level rise of between three and five meters. However, there are some positive feedback mechanisms that may reduce the two-century period.
Of particular concern is the so-called “methane bomb” where in the relatively shallow East Siberian Arctic Shelf, methane fields have been detected, with plumes of a kilometre or wider, with a methane concentration up to 100 times higher than normal.407
Can technologies such as geoengineering save us? Carbon-capture and storage methods are costly and take decades to implement and proposals such as the stratospheric injection of sulphate aerosols could lead to ozone loss and changes to rainfall patterns particularly in Asia.408 Rainfall in the tropics could be cut by 30 percent.409 Kleidon and Renner, based on their climate model, have concluded that even if geoengineering succeeded in reducing surface warming, “it cannot undo differences in hydrologic cycling and convective mass exchange at the same time.”410
405 M. S. Tom and J. Harte, “Missing Feedbacks, Asymmetric Uncertainties, and the Underestimation of Future Warming,” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 33, 2006, L10703; doi: 10.1029/2005GL025540.
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