by Bobby Akart
“What happens if it hits Earth?” asked a composed young man from the group.
“Thank goodness Earth’s magnetic field and our atmosphere protects us from most of the blast,” she replied, pointing at a colorful image of Earth and the invisible magnetic lines of force, which exit near the south pole and re-enter near the north pole. The guide ignored a few more giggles. “Otherwise, the Sun’s weather would become our weather. Yikes, right?”
The SWPC tour guide had a way of using voice inflection to create a sense of drama. If you didn’t know better, you’d think she was trying to scare the children. This was her last tour of the day, and it was specially arranged for the early evening hour by a congressman’s office. A nighttime tour deserved a little extra drama.
She continued along the corridor, explaining the impact of solar winds, how the northern lights were created, and what happened when the sun got restless.
“Watch this animated GIF of the sun during a period of restlessness,” she started. The graphic image of the July 14, 2000, Bastille Day eruption played a constant, looping animation of the full-halo X5.7 flare, which subsequently caused an S3 radiation storm.
“Wow!” said one of the kids.
“Here it comes,” exclaimed the tour guide gleefully. “See these sudden, intense hiccups and burps? These are called solar flares and coronal mass ejections.”
“The sun has solar indigestion!” The children’s teacher laughed, but for once, the kids were focused on the presentation.
“I guess you could say that,” added the tour guide. “But the effects of these types of space weather events are not so pretty. When all of these X-rays and charged particles reach Earth, they can cause trouble.”
The children stopped talking amongst themselves and turned their attention to the guide.
“Like what?” asked one child with trepidation.
“Bad space weather can interrupt radio signals. It can damage satellites. Ships at sea may not be able to use their navigation equipment. Their two-way radios may not work. And sometimes, the power of the sun can cause damage to the electrical systems that bring power to our homes.”
“Like a blackout?”
“That’s right,” she replied. “That’s why the SWPC—the Space Weather Prediction Center—is so important. Just as we need early warnings about hurricanes, tornadoes, and other bad weather, having early warnings of bad space weather helps us keep damage from solar flares to a minimum.”
She led the class down a corridor and through a double set of doors. The group entered a soundproof, glass-enclosed auditorium overlooking the scientists inside the Space Weather Forecast Office of the SWPC. Monitors provided multiple views of space and the sun. Some screens provided external views of orbiting satellites, and there was a constant stream of data and numbers being produced on the large displays in the center of the room.
The kids settled into the theater-style seating, and the tour guide was about to continue her presentation when one of the children spoke first.
“Are those two men going to fight?”
*****
“We can’t keep a lid on this!” said one of the space forecasters as he slammed down a pile of time-lapse photos of the sun.
“You don’t think I know that,” replied his adversary, who was also his superior. “But it hasn’t done anything yet. How do I justify raising an unprecedented threat awareness based upon no track record?” The two scientists stared at each other, hands on hips, with only a cluster of computer monitors separating them. All eyes were on them, including the visiting schoolkids in the gallery.
The SPWC Forecast Center was jointly operated by NOAA and the U.S. Air Force. Its primary responsibility was to provide global warnings for disturbances that could affect people and equipment impacted by everything from solar flares to asteroids. The services they provide influenced the decision-making processes of NASA, the armed services, the FAA, the Department of Transportation, and FERC—the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which regulated the power grid.
The men remained in a standoff until the scientist, after deliberately pounding the keyboard of his computer, brought the far-side image of the sun on all the large wall-mounted monitors. On display was the most recent image indicating the massive coronal hole that had formed on the northern hemisphere of the sun.
The space weather forecaster who raised the alarm took off his glasses and walked around the room. He studied the faces of his co-workers.
“Do you think that will disappear overnight? Seriously?” he asked sarcastically while pointing toward the monitors.
The sun slowly, almost imperceptibly, rotated on the screen as it fluxed and oscillated. It looked like a gigantic fusion reactor preparing to create a massive release of energy.
The senior scientist broke the silence. “Give me the current forecast—best available estimate.”
The space weather forecasters all turned their attention back to their stations, and the keyboards began to clatter. The monitors changed as each of the forecast models were determined.
“First up, what’s the radio blackout prediction at zero hour,” asked the senior scientist.
“R5, extreme—a complete high-frequency radio blackout on the entire sunlit side of Earth, lasting for hours, if not days. Airline travel will need to be halted, and oceangoing vessels will need to be notified well in advance.”
“Radiation?”
“Yes, sir. Our scale predicts extreme as well. An S5 radiation storm is likely. All aircraft passengers will be exposed to radiation at high altitudes. NASA should abort any EVA, extravehicular activity. Many satellites will be rendered useless, in some cases permanently.”
The senior scientist rubbed his temples and walked around the room. He glanced up at the observation auditorium and noticed the schoolkids for the first time. None of them were speaking and the tour guide was staring back at him. He tried not to show any concern and managed a smile as he turned back to his team.
“Call out the G-scale effects.”
“Sir, I’m predicting a geomagnetic storm of the highest level, a G5. We are predicting a massive voltage control failure across all interconnected power grids. Transformers will experience damage resulting in blackouts and, potentially, collapse.”
“ETA?”
“We predict the initial impact in higher latitudes will be felt within twenty hours. At that time, there is the potential for widespread voltage control problems, and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid. NASA will need to be advised that unavoidable radiation hazards to their astronauts will be experienced. Likewise, passengers in high-flying aircraft may be exposed to radiation. Radio blackouts will become more prevalent.”
“What’s the zero hour?” he asked as he slumped in his chair and prepared to pick up the receiver for the requisite call to Kathryn Sullivan, the Under Secretary of Commerce who acted as the administrator of NOAA.
“Sir, we are forecasting full impact to Earth in approximately twenty-four hours as an X58 solar event.”
Chapter 11
25 Hours
10:17 p.m., September 7
Ryman Residence
Belle Meade, Tennessee
“Here it is, Mom,” said Alex as she navigated the cursor onto the YouTube channel of Dr. Andrea Stanford. Using the moniker Space Weather Woman, she provided constant updates on her website and via YouTube presentations. She’d been featured in numerous television documentaries and on The Weather Channel. “Dr. Stanford just uploaded it. Look at all of the views already!”
“Does that read four thousand?” asked Madison, pointing at the bottom of the computer monitor. “And when was it uploaded?”
“Yes, Mom. She uploaded it seven minutes ago and it’s going viral. Let’s watch it.”
Alex increased the volume on her speakers and used the cursor to hit the play icon on the screen. Dr. Stanford came to life. She was pointing to a newspaper headline image, which read Minivan destro
yed after GPS leads driver onto MBTA tracks. Accompanying the headline was a minivan ripped in half by a commuter train in the Boston area.
“Now, we’ll start this forecast by reminding you how important it is to pay attention to space weather. This happened a month ago when a mother and two children barely escaped alive when the car’s GPS unit steered them onto the tracks in front of an oncoming train. Sadly, this event occurred while the northern hemisphere was under a G3 geomagnetic storm warning, which disrupted GPS units and radio broadcasts. Had a more public warning of this G3 event been given, the mother might not have relied upon her GPS as she did under normal solar conditions.”
Madison pulled up a chair. “My God, those poor people.”
“Look, Mom, the views are approaching ten thousand.”
“From my last update, where we announced an X2.2 flare and the launch of a solar storm, we now have a new active region that has crossed the solar disc, which has been identified as AR3222. By new, however, I mean old. AR3222 has grown in size to encompass much of the Sun’s northern hemisphere. This is an image of the far side taken a few moments ago. A huge dark coronal hole has formed, and this has the potential to slam Earth with some fast solar wind.
“We didn’t get much aurora from this solar storm today, which is, frankly, puzzling. But that should change as this enormous black void rotates into Earth view on the east limb tomorrow morning.
“We can expect the fast solar wind to increase, and this region will most likely launch solar storms in the next twelve hours. Regular viewers of my forecast know that I’m not an alarmist. My primary goal is to provide you the latest space weather forecast so you can prepare accordingly. In the past, our government agencies have chosen not to inform you of the consequences of significant solar activity. I believe you are capable of making an informed decision.
“There is a very strong possibility of extreme solar weather, so please take my forecast into consideration to determine how that might impact your day tomorrow. Outside of that, expect to have some amazing auroras stretching as far south as Arizona, Louisiana, and Florida. So aurora watchers, look at the skies tomorrow evening and cross your fingers that this will be a wonderful display of colors and nothing more. I’m Andrea Stanford. Thank you for watching.”
“Alex, what do you—” Madison began to ask before Alex interrupted her. Alex pounded furiously on her keyboard—quickly navigating between Google search results and various websites.
“Mr. Stark said something today and I want to look it up. There! Look at this.” Alex pointed to an article about the 1859 Carrington Event. “Here, Mom.”
Madison read the article aloud. “What Carrington saw through his telescope was a white-light solar flare, a magnetic explosion on the sun. Before dawn the next day, skies all over the planet erupted in red, green, and purple auroras so brilliant that newspapers could be read as easily as in daylight. Indeed, stunning auroras pulsated at near tropical latitudes over Cuba, the Bahamas, Jamaica, and Hawaii.”
“See, Mom. Dr. Stanford said the aurora could be seen tomorrow night in Florida. That’s almost Cuba!”
Madison read more of the article before catching her breath. Alex was obviously excited about this. But being excited about some colorful skies was far different from predicting the end of the world as we know it.
“Listen, Alex. I understand your interest in all of this. It does sound exciting to see the aurora here in Nashville. I’ve never seen the northern lights myself.”
“Mom!” exclaimed Alex as she jumped out of her chair. “I don’t care about the pretty lights. Who cares about the pretty lights? A solar flare this big could cause a massive blackout. Pretty lights? How about no lights?”
Madison was concerned about her daughter’s highly charged mental state. If you read enough on the Internet, you’d go around wearing a suit of armor, if you even left the house at all.
“Alex, let’s see how this develops. We can see what the news tells us in the morning.”
“Mom,” Alex protested, “the news won’t tell us anything because the government won’t tell the news anything. Dad always says the government lies to us. They’re probably lying now.” Alex stood defiantly staring down at her mother.
“Honey”—Madison rose to her feet in an attempt to calm her daughter down—“the government is aware of this situation if Dr. Stanford knows about it. If we’re threatened in some way, I’m sure the government will tell us what to do.”
The phone rang, interrupting the debate. Madison checked the caller id. It was Colton, thank God.
“Hi, darlin’!” answered Madison, showing her genuine appreciation for the call. She didn’t like to argue with Alex. “How was the concert?”
Colton provided her the details of his day in Dallas. Madison listened dutifully and interjected a comment here and there. She was still on edge over her conversation with Alex, who paced the floor impatiently. Madison touched Alex on the shoulder in an attempt to calm the tenseness between them, but Alex responded verbally.
“Mom, are you gonna tell him?” she asked.
Madison nodded and raised a finger to her lips. This didn’t go over well with Alex, who didn’t like to be shushed.
“Mom, please,” she pleaded.
“Yes, Alex is still up. I’ll put you on the speaker.”
Madison gave the handset to Alex who immediately began to talk.
“Daddy, you need to come home. Are there any flights tonight?”
“Alex, what’s wrong? Madison?” Colton asked over the phone loud enough for Madison to here.
Madison took the phone back from Alex and set it on the computer desk after hitting the speaker button. She took a seat and motioned for Alex to do the same.
“Honey, there are some news and internet reports that the sun is acting up and might cause a solar flare,” started Madison. “Alex learned about them in school today, and coincidentally, the sun is brewing one up. But they happen all the time, and I’m sure there’s nothing to—”
“It’s gonna be massive, Daddy,” interrupted Alex. “I’ve been online all night. This could be the biggest in history.”
Colton relayed his conversation with the American Airlines executive tonight. He explained to Alex that these solar flares were common and didn’t affect them in the south.
Alex, who had now calmed down out of resignation rather than compliance, announced that she was tired and was going to bed. She and Colton said her good-byes, and Madison took the phone with her downstairs. They’d have to watch Big Brother tomorrow night.
“Colton, she’s worked up, that’s all,” started Madison after she was out of listening distance from Alex’s room. “You know how she gets passionate about certain topics. Today, it’s solar flares. Tomorrow, it’ll be whether global warming is a hoax. You’ve raised quite the conservative, you know.”
Colton, still on speakerphone, replied, “We’ve both raised a rabble-rouser!”
“That kind of activity came from your side of the family, Mr. Ryman!”
“I love you, Maddie. I appreciate Alex’s concern. But tomorrow is a big day. We have the final meeting with the lawyers in the morning, and then tomorrow night is the Cowboys home opener on Thursday Night football. There’ll be a big production about the Super Bowl lineup during halftime. You know what I mean.”
“I know, honey. Alex will be fine. This kind of stuff floats around the Internet all the time. Tomorrow night is the announcement, you’ll fly home Friday morning, and we’ll have the party Friday night. Life goes on, right?”
“Yup.”
Chapter 12
19 Hours
4:23 a.m., September 8
9:23 a.m. Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)
The Sun
The sun has no surface per se. It’s a huge sphere of glowing gasses in a constant state of flux. At its core, immense gravitational pulls produce unfathomable pressure and temperature, which can reach twenty-seven million degrees Fahrenheit. As a result, the
incredible heat causes hydrogen atoms to be compressed and fused together, creating helium. The sun, and other stars like it, is the perfect nuclear fusion reactor.
The universe’s consummate source of energy is always producing massive amounts of energy. This energy emanates outward toward the sun’s photosphere, the lowest of its three primary layers. As this energy passes through this radiative zone, the temperature of this energy decreases by several million degrees, and, as a result, light is formed.
In the last forty-eight hours, the Sun’s magnetic field bloated, and it encroached upon the photosphere. These powerful magnetic fields created sunspots in the outer atmosphere of the sun. To observers in the universe, these sunspots appear to be dark because they’re cooler than the surrounding areas of the sun’s photosphere. But cooler does not mean better in this instance.
The dark area of the sunspot is called the umbra. The umbra can vary in size based on the power of the magnetic field. The Sun, and stars like it, are unique because the interior and exterior rotate separately. Over time, all that messy and uneven movement twists and distorts the sun’s magnetic field in the same way your bedcovers get wrinkled and bunched up when you toss and turn in your sleep.
For several days, the sun had been restless. Without conscience, the sun determined enough was enough. Its magnetic field began to wind up into a twisted mess and push its way from the sun’s core.
The magnetic field’s expansion into the photosphere was enormous. The magnetism build up was so intense that it inhibited the flow of hot gasses from the sun’s interior to its surface.
It was powerful. It was unsustainable. It would be described as the largest in recorded history.
The magnetic field lines from the sun’s interior burst through the sunspot, twisting to the point of snapping—like a rubber band wound too tight. When they snapped, they linked up again to form a new shape, but not before releasing enormous amounts of stored energy into the sun’s outermost atmosphere, the corona.
