2018 AND BEYOND
None of these older, religiously observant, pro-life Catholic economic populists would entertain voting for a Democrat in 2018. In fact, the Trump-Fox–motivated Catholic conservatives were very eager to support Republicans in 2018, to defend Donald Trump and his agenda. They were excited by his base strategy and are the audience for his campaign rallies. All of the Catholics approved of Trump’s performance on the economy and his push for new trade agreements.
But some in the summer were less motivated by the base buttons Trump was pushing. They could not forget the other ways in which he had divided the country and failed to set a moral example. In the survey, they were less likely to strongly approve of Trump, and they were less likely to vote in the midterm by a significant amount. One in five in the survey believed there needed to be accountability after hearing possible scenarios of indictments.
In 2020, when Donald Trump is on the ballot again, some of the Catholics could peel off. Some mentioned that Governor John Kasich had accomplished a lot in Ohio but also that he “is Christian and moral.” One brave soul was already prepared to say he would never vote for Trump again because “President Trump has too many personal issues and beliefs that are negative and destructive to this country.” He explained that he just refused to compromise his “personal beliefs.”
SECULAR CONSERVATIVES
Secular conservatives are a fifth of the GOP base. They are genuinely ideological conservatives who are mostly religiously unaffiliated or nonobservant. They are more traditional conservatives on small government, trade, and taxes and have aligned with the GOP establishment in the past.
All of them supported Trump’s tax cuts, deregulation, and conservative Supreme Court picks, and most thought the economy was moving in the right direction. A sizable minority embraced President Trump and repeated the Fox News narrative about the country. But the majority were turned off by Trump’s protectionist policies, the way he badgers private businesses, his tendency to overclaim, and his inability to act presidential. That led them to pull back rather than contest the current direction of the party.
President Trump used his rallies to speak to Republican base voters, but most of the secular conservative men held back after watching clips of Trump speaking on the campaign trail. They were just turned off by Trump’s personality and confrontational style, so they were not as motivated as Evangelicals and Tea Party Republicans to defend Trump in the off-year elections. They were not as invested in the culture war of the Evangelicals and Tea Party supporters or as desperate to stop the Democrats from taking control. They did not have much use for the Democrats, but nor did they feel motivated to protect President Trump in the 2018 off-year. Some might support a third-party candidate in 2020, if that is an option.
WEARING THEIR GOP HAT
All the secular conservatives liked that someone with “business savvy” was “running [the] USA as a businessman as opposed to a politician.” They were thrilled with the “booming” economy, noting the stock market growth and the “record low unemployment.” They considered the tax cuts—which they labeled “tax reform”—and cuts to regulations on businesses huge successes.
They applauded Trump for “top-notch” nominations to the Supreme Court. They appreciated that he had nominated conservatives who will “hold up the Constitution” instead of activist judges taking power from the Congress and the states.
Most secular conservatives thought that Trump was making progress on national security, particularly with respect to North Korea. They called his summit with Kim Jong-un “a crazy big step for that country and this country.”
They all believed that Trump “genuinely cared about this country” because he was selflessly “losing money” by getting involved in politics instead of staying in business. A few secular conservatives excused Trump’s cockiness as an act that lets him get things done because he isn’t a politician.
I think because of his attitude he’s able to come to the table and say, “We’re going to get this shit done,” and most people are like, “All right.”
I think that same style that I even find distasteful and polarizing and create doubts in my mind, are actually what are still working for him.
At the very least they said it was a good thing that Trump is “assertive.”
Unfortunately for President Trump and the GOP, most of the secular conservatives wanted more than victories on policy issues: there was a strong desire for a return to conservative convictions and leadership style.
TRUMP’S LEADERSHIP STYLE
When asked to write their doubts about Donald Trump, the secular conservatives went directly to his unorthodox, unpresidential behavior and speech and did not hold back. “I really don’t like Donald Trump,” said one man, “I don’t like his style.” They called him an “egomaniac” and wished “he would just keep his mouth shut.”
Trump’s freewheeling, confrontational approach to communication riles up his Evangelical and Tea Party base, who said it set him apart from other politicians in a good way, but it made it hard for many secular conservatives to defend Trump’s presidency: “It’s phenomenal to see a business acumen in the White House, but then to see the same a**hat writing stuff on Twitter about prostitutes and this, that, and the other, it’s a tough dichotomy for me to really be all-in.”
The limits of Trump’s appeal to secular conservatives were evident in this exchange in reaction to a video of him touting his accomplishments at a campaign rally. They felt the need to qualify their praise for the policy successes.
John. I don’t care about what he has to say. I don’t care about where we’re at right now. His term’s not over, so, that he’s accomplishing all this crap is ridiculous. It’s short-lived right now. There’s a long way to go. If he thinks he’s going to run and get elected again, that’s great, but I don’t know, I just, I—the dude can’t even say nuclear, he says “nucular,” and it’s so frustrating to live in a world like this now. Where people are just so ignorant and dumb.
Howard. It’s contrived statements. I mean, Make America Great Again was his platform like his hats, tee shirts, banner ads everywhere, and now, America is Great [is his new slogan in 2020]? Whatever the hell he said, I don’t know. I mean, again, I’m very 50-50 on it because I completely agree with what John just said—it’s short-lived, because he’s only been in for a year and a half, pushing two, I mean, it is short-lived at this point. But also, like what has happened, has been a huge economical turn. Whether you play around with investing on your phone or your multi-millions are in the market, you’ve seen a positive bump. Significant.
Bill. Not this year.
Howard. Well, we did take a hit early in the year.
Bill. I mean, I think his North Korea thing was taking the victory lap too soon. They have not denuclearized. It’s not an official treaty, what they did. The president doesn’t have the power to make an official treaty. It’s in the Constitution, it’s Congress. But at the same time, he does tout his achievements with the economy, and you know, even if the stock market is out of shape because of the trade war, there’s still more jobs now than there’s ever been in the country.
For many, their negative reaction went far beyond campaign rally antics and tweeting to who Donald Trump is as a person: “He might know what he’s doing with running the country as a business, but he’s not a good human being and not somebody that kids should be looking up to. And that’s kind of what I thought a president was supposed to be, was what everybody wants to be when they grow up and a good role model. And he obviously doesn’t do that.”
They were shockingly forceful in their disgust for Donald Trump’s treatment of women. After viewing a video of Donald Trump disrespecting women on the campaign trail, they called him “a pig man” and “sexist” and a “disgusting person.” This was when some of the secular conservatives revealed just how conflicted they had been about Trump being the Republican nominee: “Wow, that’s—You hear stuff like that about [wo
men], you just go—again, I just don’t understand how [he became the nominee]. He was not even close to being my first choice. Not even close.” One man who ultimately voted for a third party in 2016 made a point to say that the Trump comments he found most offensive—those captured on the Access Hollywood tape—were not even included on this video.
Many of the secular conservatives, like the moderate Republicans, said social division is the biggest threat to the country. They blamed both the left—which is so eager to call those who disagree with them racists and has a “victim mentality”—and the right—which has some cultural views they wouldn’t defend and then ceded the high ground by elevating Trump. They resented the difficulty they have had reconciling their ethics with their political choice in 2016, and that may be a real threat to their enthusiasm in 2020.
TRUMP’S POLICIES AND PRIORITIES
Most of the secular conservatives I spoke to in Denver expressed discomfort with some of Trump’s signature executive actions and use of the bully pulpit. That included Trump’s policies on issues like trade, where he diverged from the conservative orthodoxy, and the way he enjoyed telling private businesses how they should behave, which offended their libertarian sensibilities.
Most of these secular conservatives disagreed with Trump’s imposition of tariffs and were worried about a potential trade war:
I would say threats are still just maybe the fragility of the economy … with the trade war [and this] push for isolationism.
I generally think that any tariff is a tax on the American consumer, and that bilateral trade agreements are a very good thing. And I think Donald Trump tearing up NAFTA would be disastrous for my home state or any of the southern states who rely on trade to Mexico. So many jobs rely on trade, more than the factories.
These secular conservatives were uncomfortable with NFL athletes kneeling during the national anthem because it is unpatriotic, divisive, and sets a bad example for children. But some also expressed a libertarian respect for the rights of the athletes and the owners to make their own decisions: “Personally, I think there should be great respect for the flag, but I also think it’s your freedom to express your opinion. But I think owners, I think they can make their own decisions on how to discipline players and their consequences.” They reminded themselves that “it’s dangerous to have the government compel an individual to do something” because it is a slippery slope from standing for the flag to compelling you to do something liberals may want you to do.
A few secular conservatives wondered out loud whether Trump’s favoritism and public chastisement of specific companies put the country down the road to “crony capitalism.”
LIMITS ON POWER
Of all the GOP groups, the secular conservatives were the most aware of the special counsel’s Russia investigation and the most likely to bring it up unprompted. Even though they thought a lot of the news coverage about the investigation was fuel for the media outrage machine sowing division on both sides, a few said that we should “wait and see” what comes out of the investigation: “We don’t know what he’s found. It might be nothing. It could be something. I’d rather, if there is collusion, I’d rather we find it.”
Some of the secular conservatives took very seriously the possibility that Trump’s campaign team and even Trump himself may have inappropriately conspired with the Russians. When the moderator presented them with a hypothetical scenario in which the special counsel indicted Donald Trump Jr. and other campaign principals and reported to Congress that President Trump had obstructed justice, some accepted the conclusion. “It’s not gonna be illegitimate judging by his background record, just from what I know,” said one man of Mueller and his investigation. “I’d be surprised,” said another man, who then elaborated, “but if somebody broke the law, then they should be held accountable.”
Some disputed whether it was possible for the president to obstruct justice or whether Trump’s actions counted as high crimes or misdemeanors, but others insisted that “if they found concrete stuff on Trump, they should go with the law proceedings.” One man said this would mean that Trump was not legitimately elected and so should be impeached to teach people a lesson.
I would fully say if he went through Russian interference for getting him elected, then yeah. You know what? Like you don’t deserve to be here. I mean, it wasn’t the damn majority vote to begin with. I would say if that is the reality, then he should be on his way. If he got impeached for the first time, basically in the history of [America], because of [these] wrongdoings, I mean, everything we say about kids seeing him and not being the guy to follow and then they get the full circle and see like this guy really was a dips*** and this is how he went about it and he cut corners and now he’s out. I mean, that might be a hell of a lesson for the United States and for all of its people in it.
Most of the GOP’s secular conservatives were either conflicted or ambivalent about the Trump presidency and Trump’s intensified efforts to communicate about his successes and the threats ahead. There was no sense in this group that secular conservative Republicans were motivated to vote in November to defend Donald Trump. If the special counsel made more indictments against the Trump campaign or reports on obstruction, these were the base voters most likely to be impacted.
THE MODERATES
President Trump sought to rally his party in 2018 with ever more frantic rallies to motivate the base of the party, but the moderates were pushed even further away.10 One in four in the base are moderates, the second largest group, and they limit the likelihood that Trump’s base strategy will succeed.
Many of the female moderates in the summer of 2018 indicated they might just vote for a Democrat but even more that they won’t go out and vote to protect Donald Trump.
They were still Republicans because of their views on immigration and the accelerating diversity of the country, but they were so viscerally opposed to President Trump that other dynamics dominated their responses.
When my moderator showed the videos of Trump speaking to his admiring supporters, their response was universally negative. Trump touted his progress on North Korea, the economy, and the jobs numbers, or talked about appointments to the Supreme Court, but his aggressive style was so off-putting they could not embrace his progress, even on the issues on which they agreed—like the economy and immigration.
Trump argued people should vote in the midterms to defend his policies on abortion, but these are the most socially liberal part of the base. The moderates embraced gay marriage and Planned Parenthood, and wanted new laws to combat gun violence and regulations to protect the environment.
They were disgusted by Trump’s treatment of women and worried about the apparent green light he gave to sexism. The threats to women’s rights pushed them over the edge, and some indicated they would take to the streets and organize over Roe v. Wade.
This all led half of the moderates in the July survey to support a candidate different from Trump and a quarter to vote for a third-party candidate in 2020. They just didn’t see “any Republicans standing up to him and trying to stop some of these things that are going through.”
I kind of feel the same way. I’m hoping that the Republican Party will open up their eyes and see Trump for what he is. I was a supporter of Trump, but I’m not so much now. I’m not going to say I’m totally against him, but I’m hoping that the Republican Party can reel him in a little bit.
One woman explained, “I just want an honest Republican who is sane and a decent human being.” In the near term, some said they wouldn’t vote in November to protect President Trump and some might vote for a Democrat to be a check on Trump.
Moderates were already pulling back from the Republican Party for being out of touch with their views on social issues and the role of government and for refusing to reel in Trump.
TURNING BACK THE CLOCK ON WOMEN’S RIGHTS
Moderate Republicans resembled Democrats in their social views. Asked what they thought about gay marriage,
they said “cool,” “sweet,” and “whatever.”
They were more than fine with Planned Parenthood. “Feel good”; “they’ve done a lot of good,” without even a single qualification.
The moderates were supportive of abortion rights and “scared to death” that Roe v. Wade could be overturned. “It’s not going to stop abortion,” one woman said, “it’s just going to stop legal abortion.” The prospect that Roe would be successfully challenged would be “huge,” and some said that this would turn them into activists: “I can’t say that I have ever gotten involved in organizing … I would for 100% march, picket, and whatever I had to do to stop that from happening. I would beat down the doors at Congress.”
Moderates were more worried about “going backwards with all the women’s rights” because they believed that the president was “so chauvinistic against women.” They were disgusted by a video of candidate Trump’s disrespectful treatment of women. They said they loathed “the name-calling, the degrading, the grabbing them with the pussies,” and they also cited his recent disrespect toward female world leaders as a problem. In 2016, his behavior toward women was “almost” disqualifying, but Hillary Clinton was so tarnished, many bottled up those feelings.
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