by Ted Halstead
"Understood, sir. Shall I send in Admiral Bartlett?" Robinson asked.
"Yes, please, General. For us, any conflict over Taiwan will be an Air Force and Navy joint operation. I'm not putting any soldiers on the ground in either Taiwan or mainland China, so the Army will sit this one out."
"I completely agree with you, sir. I'll have some answers for you by tomorrow," Robinson said.
A few moments later, Robinson had left, and Admiral Bartlett, the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), took his place.
Bartlett's job title made it sound as though he had operational command authority over ships and submarines. He didn't, any more than Robinson did over aircraft. That authority was exercised by the combatant commanders, who were organized by region. For the coming conflict over Taiwan, that would be the Admiral commanding USINDOPACOM, which covered the Pacific and South Asia.
However, as the Navy's professional head and its highest-ranking officer, CNO Bartlett was the one Hernandez turned to for advice when he had questions about the Navy and its assets.
There were previous CNOs who had careers in submarines, including two who'd served in the same one, the Los Angeles-class attack submarine USS Honolulu. Bartlett, though, like most CNOs, had spent his career either on or commanding surface ships.
"Admiral, I'd like to start with some old business and then move on to our next challenges. I've read through your report on the Oregon's last deployment, and it looks like we're lucky the crew is still with us," Hernandez said, tapping on the thick folder in front of him.
"Yes, sir," Bartlett said. "Once it reached port and we were able to do a complete examination, we determined that the hull damage caused by the Chinese torpedo's explosion was even more severe than the crew thought. It looks like the decision to use a tougher, though thinner, structural steel in its construction was a good one. I doubt a Los Angeles-class submarine would have survived."
Hernandez grunted. "But the report says that it might not be possible to repair the hull, at least at a reasonable cost. Explain that to me."
Bartlett frowned. "I'm not surprised that puzzled you. That section of the report was preliminary and is missing a detailed analysis because there hasn't been time for it. The Virginia-class submarines were the first built using modular construction techniques. That would make salvaging everything inside the Oregon's hull far easier than with an older submarine."
"So, it's like an insurance company deciding whether to total a car," Hernandez said. "If the value of what you can salvage plus the cost of building a new hull is a lower figure than the cost of repairing the existing hull…"
"Exactly, sir. Another consideration is whether, given the serious damage to the hull, we could ever have sufficient confidence in the repairs' quality. Honestly, sir, I don't think it's worth the risk," Bartlett said.
"I'm glad to hear you say that, Admiral," Hernandez said.
Bartlett looked startled, and Hernandez smiled.
"You were expecting me to push back on that, right? I know I've acquired a reputation as a President who's not a fan of defense spending," Hernandez said.
Bartlett shrugged. "Sir, I understand choices have to be made. But I'm guessing this time there's another factor I don't know about."
Hernandez nodded approvingly. "That's right, Admiral. You've kept the Oregon in a covered berth, right? And her personnel under wraps?"
"Yes, sir," Bartlett replied. We've restricted all Oregon personnel to base and ordered them not to communicate with anyone off base. They were due to be on deployment for at least another two months. So, nobody's expecting to hear from any of them. I have to be honest, though, and say that with well over a hundred men, the chances are good that word of their presence will leak to someone off base."
Hernandez waved his hands dismissively. "I expected that. All I want is for the Chinese to keep guessing. They’ve already asked unofficially about that submarine we sank. At some point, they're going to ask officially. I want to be able to answer that I don't know."
Bartlett nodded slowly. "And that's why you wouldn't mind our salvaging the modules inside the Oregon, and scrapping her hull. Rather than taking the Oregon to a repair yard, which would be impossible to conceal."
"That's right," Hernandez said. "And that brings us to the prospect of an inquest into the damage done to the Oregon."
"You mean, whether her captain fired first in violation of orders," Bartlett said flatly.
"Part of this report seems to contradict that directly. I see the Oregon's sonar supervisor says that given the time it took him to detect and identify the Chinese sub's firing, he's sure they fired first," Hernandez said.
"Even if that's true, sir, the issue is what Captain Cartwright knew at the time he fired. And it's clear Cartwright hadn't been notified that torpedoes had been fired at the Oregon when he fired on the Chinese submarine," Bartlett said.
"And if he'd waited?" Hernandez asked.
Bartlett hesitated and looked uncomfortable. Finally, he said quietly, "The Oregon would have been destroyed."
Hernandez nodded. "So, why doesn't that settle the matter?"
"Sir, it's not that simple. Those orders were given for a reason. Firing before being fired upon risked starting a war with a nuclear-armed adversary. Did waiting increase the risk to the Oregon? Yes, it did. But that risk had a purpose," Bartlett said.
Hernandez, though, noticed Bartlett hadn't put much conviction into the words he'd just said.
"Very well, Admiral. Now, what would defense counsel say on Captain Cartwright's behalf?" Hernandez asked.
Now came a much longer hesitation.
"Sir, the Chinese submarine had come close enough to the surface to receive new orders after Captain Cartwright fired the Tomahawk missile that destroyed a Chinese base. Its later behavior, particularly its high-speed pursuit of the Oregon, would lead any submarine commander to believe the Chinese submarine had been ordered to destroy the Oregon," Bartlett said.
"We both know the Tomahawk the Oregon fired wasn't intended to destroy that Chinese base. If it had been, isn't it fair to say the Oregon's orders would have been different?" Hernandez asked.
Bartlett reluctantly nodded. "Yes, sir. A lethal Chinese response would have been anticipated, and the Oregon's captain would have been given greater latitude to defend against it."
"You mentioned a minute ago the risk of nuclear war with China. I want to avoid that. But I'm not ready to see the Pacific turned into a Chinese lake to do it. So, do you understand why for now I want to keep the Chinese guessing about the Oregon's status?" Hernandez asked.
Bartlett nodded. "And why you don't want an inquest into how the Oregon came to be damaged."
"That's right," Hernandez said. "If the fact that the Oregon sank a Chinese submarine becomes part of a military trial record, I’ll no longer be able to deny it to the Chinese government.”
Hernandez paused. “Even though I'm the commander in chief, ordinarily, I wouldn't interfere in matters of military justice. This time, though, I think we have to conclude national security takes precedence. I know I can make this an order, but I want your honest opinion. Do you agree?"
Bartlett sat quietly for about a minute, though it seemed much longer.
"I do, sir. There are plenty of arguments to make either way. But in the end, national security has to come first. It's the whole reason we have a military, after all," Bartlett said.
"Good. Now, let's talk about what this intelligence report out of our Embassy in Beijing means. This Chinese minister may have disappeared, but the information he put on that USB drive certainly gave us a lot to think about. 'Second Chinese Revolution' sounds like an exaggeration. But if the Chinese military's power and influence have increased as much as he claims, I think the Navy is going to be asked to help defend Taiwan sooner rather than later," Hernandez said.
Bartlett nodded. "It's a challenge we've been preparing for since before I joined the Navy. I'll start by saying we're not going to put any surface ships
between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland. China has spent quite a bit on developing air and land-based missile capabilities that would make such a deployment suicide."
Hernandez nodded. "Understood. But you do have other ways to make a Chinese invasion of Taiwan more difficult."
"Oh yes, Mr. President. We certainly do," Bartlett said, with a wide smile.
Chapter Sixty-Nine
August 1st Building
Beijing, China
General Yang, the Air Force Commander, looked across the conference room table at General Shi, the Army Commander. For the moment, Shi seemed content to let Yang take the lead in crafting the military's new role in China's government.
But they both knew where the real power was to be found. With over two million active-duty soldiers, as well as more than another half-million in reserve, China's army was the world's largest by any measure.
Yes, China's air force was potent as well. But when it came to real power, Shi's troops and tanks were what counted.
If Shi moved against him, the best use of Yang's air assets would be to fly the fastest plane he could find out of China.
When the bomb that blew up the President's limo had turned out to be powerful enough to flatten him as well as the President, for a moment, Yang had thought that Shi might have been trying to eliminate both of them.
But no. Shi knew as well as Yang did that Song's security forces had to be told to stand down by the only man whose orders they would obey.
President Lin himself.
Shi had even apologized to Yang, and told him he was pleased Yang had escaped serious injury. Yang couldn’t be sure, but Shi had seemed sincere.
Well, maybe Shi was happy to let Yang be the bigger target for the many in the Communist Party who resented the military's new leading role.
Yang did his best to push these thoughts firmly away, at least while Shi was sitting in front of him.
Plenty of time to brood later.
At least now they could talk freely. Yang had used Forward’s supposed infiltration of the Ministry of State Security to justify removing all MSS listening devices from the August 1st Building.
"I have read your report on the Army's preparations for the invasion of Taiwan. Are you confident the timeline is realistic?" Yang asked.
Shi nodded. "Yes. Of course, much will depend on the success of the initial landings conducted by the Marines. If they can secure the ports we need to land troops, tanks, and heavy equipment in quantity, the Army will meet every target."
"Understood," Yang said. "Let's assume for the moment that they fail. What do you think of the contingency plan to seize airfields using paratroopers and then bring in the occupation force by air?"
"Not much," Shi said immediately. "You've received nothing in writing from me on that proposal and won't because I'm not going to have my staff plan for disaster."
Yang frowned. "Are you so sure that method has no chance of success?"
"Yes," Shi said. "Even if we assume your planes have swept all opposition from the skies. Taiwan's military has had decades to plan against a paratrooper assault targeting its airfields. As long as the enemy has the will to fight, any air-only assault is doomed to failure."
"Very well," Yang said. "Admiral Bai agrees with you. The Navy is busy building more Type 071 landing platform docks, Type 075 amphibious assault ships, medium landing ships, and tank landing ships. I appreciate your agreeing to assign a dozen of your attack helicopters to the Marines to help with training and doctrine development for amphibious operations."
Shi nodded. "Happy to do it. Marines are soldiers too. Just a little wetter."
Yang looked up from his reports, startled. Had Shi just made a joke?
Yang couldn't help himself and started laughing. Shi joined in, surprising Yang even more.
Finally, they both stopped. Then Shi, wiping his eyes, said, "Don't hesitate to ask me for anything else needed to make this operation a success. Our new role in China's future depends on it."
Yang nodded. "Not to mention our lives."
Shi smiled. "Yes. That too."
Yang pointed at the large map of the world that dominated one wall of the conference room.
“I will tell you, though, that once we have achieved reunification with Taiwan we have much more work to do. There may be little our enemies can do to stop us. But they will not quietly accept our success. I do not propose to sit back and wait for their blows.”
Shi cocked his head quizzically. “What do you intend?”
Yang shrugged. “First things first. I hope to get Taiwan to surrender without destroying all their military assets, or losing many of ours. If we can do that, incorporating the best of Taiwan’s equipment and troops in our armed forces will see us emerge even stronger.”
Yang paused, and gestured again towards the world map on the wall.
“It’s a big world. It’s long past time the Americans and the Russians were reminded they’re not the only ones living in it.”
First, thanks very much for reading my book! I sincerely hope you enjoyed it. If you did, I'd really appreciate it if you could leave a review - even a short one - on Amazon.
If you found a typo or some other error despite my best efforts, please let me know with details. I will fix it!
If you have questions, please send those to me too. You can reach me at my blog, https://thesecondkoreanwar.wordpress.com or on Twitter at https://Twitter.com/TedHalstead18
Or if all else fails, you can e-mail me directly at [email protected]
I'll answer a few questions now that I received after my first four books and one for a reader of an advance review copy of this book. I'll start with the newest questions and then repeat answers to a few old ones, in case this is the only one of my books you've read.
Your books have always portrayed Russian agents as protagonists. Why did they turn into villains in this book?
In my first four books, the Russian characters always act in Russia's interests. But, in many cases, those interests either coincided with America's, or at least didn't contradict them.
Not this time.
Why the change? Well, I've enjoyed imagining that Russia and America could work together on some level and set these books in the near future in part to make such cooperation a bit more credible. Judging from the reaction of most readers, they enjoyed the idea of cooperation too.
However, even the most optimistic among us have to acknowledge it's inevitable that at some point, the interests of two great powers will conflict.
Will Russian and American interests ever realign? You'll have to read my next book to find out!
Is any of the information in your books classified?
For the benefit of anyone in the national security apparatus of which I used to be a part, the short answer is an emphatic NO.
Now, the longer and more detailed answer.
I was aware when I started writing these books of the danger that I might inadvertently include classified information. Of course, that danger has receded as time has marched on since my retirement. But it's still there.
The way I dealt with it was simple. I made sure that absolutely every detail that could possibly have been classified when I learned of it has since made it into public knowledge. In short, if I could find out about it through Google, I could put it in the book.
For instance, I first read about the idea of arming US subs with antiaircraft missiles long ago. But before I included it as a near-future capability in my first book The Second Korean War, I did a Google search. Here's what I found in an article from an editor at Time's "The War Zone":
"During the late 2000s, the US Navy, Raytheon and Northrop Grumman worked to migrate the highly flexible AIM-9X short-range air-to-air missile to the undersea world under the Littoral Warfare Weapon program. The AIM-9X would be vertically launched in a canister from a submarine, then the missile would climb into the sky when the canister broke the surface, locking onto its target after launch.
&nb
sp; Tests during the mid 2000s had the AIM-9X fired from a vertical launcher as a proof of concept demonstration. A few years later, an AIM-9X was launched from an actual submarine as part of a series of integration tests. Since then the program seems to have disappeared from public view, but it's likely development has continued on in the classified world—especially considering that submarine-launched unmanned aircraft have been an operational reality within America's nuclear submarine fleet for some time."
In one of the book's first reviews, I was called out by a reviewer who said:
"The author could have done a little research using Google. A Virginia class submarine with stern tubes that carry fire AIM-9 air to air missiles? Puhleaze...."
After I responded by posting the quote from the article I used as the basis for including a sub-launched AIM-9 in the book, later the same day, another reader had this comment:
"Re: the author's reply: very nicely done. You just sold another copy of your book."
Satisfying? Well, yes! Sadly, Amazon no longer allows authors to respond to reviews or readers to react to those author comments.
Information about the Soviet SS-24 test involving anti-tank mines described in The End of Russia's War in Ukraine was indeed classified when it happened almost thirty years ago. Reports of the trial made quite an impression on me at the time, and I always thought the SS-24 would make a great element to include in a novel.
And of course, now all the details about that incident are available to anyone with Internet access.
What inspires you to write these books?
Sometimes it's 100% personal experience. I worked in Seoul for four years, and almost every day at the Embassy we had reason to think about what would happen if the North Koreans attacked.
Also, every day at work, I talked to South Koreans applying to immigrate to America, in numbers that made Korea one of the top ten source countries at the time. Why were they leaving when Korea was already an economic powerhouse, and prospects seemed to be bright?
