by FX Holden
Roberta D’Antonia hadn’t had a home-cooked meal for months.
She’d been sitting in an anonymous apartment in Stockholm, Sweden, eating pot noodles when news of the Groza strike on the Cape had broken.
And she’d heard the US President’s address sitting in a bar in Stockholm’s Gamla Stan district. Knowing that for all his measured, angry words, there was very little America could do if Russia wanted to put another Groza-style system into orbit. It would contract third-party nations, it would claim to be putting commercial satellites into space, and the next generation of Groza satellites would be better defended, stealthier, more deadly.
Which was why she had used her first two weeks of freedom pulling in favors and putting together a dossier on Lapikov’s nemesis, Defense Minister Kelnikov. Lapikov was many things, but not a mass-murdering swine. If anyone had to be behind the trigger of Russia’s weapons of mass destruction, she wanted it to be him.
After sending the package of documents about Kelnikov to Denis Lapikov, she turned her attention to securing the safety of her own family. From her contacts in AISE, she had learned that the Russian GRU had put a price on the head of Chief Scientist Anastasia Grahkovsky. They wanted her dead. Not dead or alive, just dead. There was a contract on offer.
D’Antonia picked it up. She didn’t want the money that was attached, she had another reward in mind, one that involved the GRU leaving her family the hell alone if she took care of Grahkovsky for them. They agreed to her terms.
She learned that the scientist had flown from Moscow to Shanghai. A tip from a colleague in Shanghai had led D’Antonia to the Haidian District of Beijing, where it was rumored a blind, scarred and bald foreigner had been seen entering and leaving the Chinese National Space Administration headquarters in a government vehicle.
D’Antonia doubted that Grahkovsky worked in the building, but bet on the likelihood she would need to go there occasionally to brief Chinese officials. She paid for a street vendor to keep an eye on the entrance to the CNSA underground garage, and after a couple of weeks, she struck gold. She had Grahkovsky’s car followed back to a gated CNSA research compound on the outskirts of Beijing and set up watchers again, to keep track of the Russian’s movements. She returned to Sweden, and waited. Over the next three months, Grahkovsky was rarely seen leaving the compound – it must have included living quarters – but once each month, she did.
Like tonight.
It seemed that her night out with D’Antonia in Moscow had given Anastasia Grahkovsky a taste for champagne cocktails, and on the last Friday night of the month, she left her compound and went to a nearby jazz club, where she booked a private booth. According to the staff at the club, she would order a couple of cocktails, take in the music, and then order a car to take her home. Occasionally one of the other patrons at the club would get up the courage to speak with her. Once, the staff had seen her leave with another guest, both of them quite drunk. But usually she was alone, and seemed quite content that way.
D’Antonia walked into the club, knowing that Grahkovsky was already there. She had people inside who had eyes on the woman, and she was in her normal booth, off to one side of the stage. There was no sign of protection. A whisper-thin woman was singing Amy Winehouse in a voice that was pitched far too high for D’Antonia’s tastes, but she ignored the aural assault, and the stares of the locals in the club, as she moved through the tables to Grahkovsky’s booth.
She slid into the booth without speaking and waited.
Grahkovsky turned her head to D’Antonia as though listening, then smiled. “Ah. I recognize that perfume. I knew someone would come. I’m almost glad it’s you.”
“You were not that hard to find,” D’Antonia said.
“Because I am not hiding,” Grahkovsky said. She turned her face back to the stage, and sipped her champagne. “I love this song. I’m No Good. Do you know it?”
“Yes. But I prefer the original,” D’Antonia said.
Grahkovsky reached for her cane. “I suppose you want me to come with you. Whose intelligence service is waiting for us? The Russians or the Americans?”
“No one, it is just you and I,” D’Antonia said truthfully.
“Ah. Of course.” Grahkovsky fingered her glass. “I did think the champagne tasted slightly bitter tonight. Except, there is no antidote this time, is there?”
“I’m afraid not,” D’Antonia said. The woman’s calmness was unnerving.
“How long do I have?” she asked.
“About…” D’Antonia checked her watch, “… ten minutes.”
“Good. We’ll hear one more number, then. Will you stay with me for a few minutes more?” the woman asked.
“I can do that.” The woman on the stage bowed to subdued clapping, then launched into a rather lovely version of Summertime. Grahkovsky hummed along. D’Antonia watched her warily, but she showed no sign of panic, no tensing of muscles, no indication she was going to try to fight or flee. “You wanted to be found,” D’Antonia decided.
“Yes. I don’t want to sound melodramatic, signora, but Anastasia Grahkovsky, that little girl from Chelyabinsk, she died long, long ago. All that has existed since then has been an idea. That idea became Groza. Russia was not worthy of it. So now that idea, in all its terrifying potential, has been given to China.” Grahkovsky drained her champagne and dabbed her lips with a napkin. “You have killed me. And if not you, it would have been someone else. But Groza lives on.”
“I pity you,” D’Antonia said.
Grahkovsky’s hand tightened on the stem of her glass. “I am indifferent to your feelings about me.”
“Yes, that is why I pity you,” D’Antonia said. She rose, taking Grahkovsky’s cane with her. “Goodbye.”
She walked outside the club to find a fresh breeze had blown through, sweeping away the smog and the rain that had shrouded the city ever since she had arrived. Looking up, she could actually see stars.
Perhaps the idea of Groza was unkillable. But it was no longer a threat. And at least for now, the sparkle of the night sky was beautiful again.
/END
Author’s note
I must start with a confession. Orbital is the novel in the Future War series I have most been looking forward to writing, and the one I have been most nervous about. Predictions of any kind are fraught with uncertainty, and none more so than predictions about warfare in the domain of space.
We are on the doorstep, unfortunately, of an unprecedented militarization of space. If you doubt this, look no further than the list of nations which now have dedicated Space Force commands. And the advent of pilotless or unmanned spacecraft has made ‘bloodless’ conflict in space possible, another element which increases the risk of that conflict occurring.
The reason for my nervousness, though, is the great passion with which those interested in the realm of space guard their beliefs about how war in the domain of space will or will not develop. Many of the technologies in this novel are either in early prototype phase or, like the Skylon, only now attracting the investments needed for them to see the light of day. So, many of my predictions will not be realized, I fully accept that. This doesn’t make them less valuable to explore. For help with the many technical elements of how these future weapon platforms might operate in space I am indebted to the online expert community of Quora and my team of beta readers.
Will the technologies discussed in this novel be deployed by 2034? As with any novel in the Future War series, the answer to this is simple: some will, some won’t. But let me explain my reasoning for including them.
The Groza Kinetic Orbital Bombardment System does not exist, yet, though all the technology to create it does. But it is a fact that Russia deployed a terrifying weapon in space during the Cold War, called the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) – a suborbital missile which could circle the earth and fire nuclear warheads at any target on the planet, striking it in half the time an ICBM missile would take. It was in operation between 19
68 and 1982. I was a child when this weapon was operational and had no idea it was circling over my head. I doubt most people on the planet knew! FOBS was specifically banned by the 1979 SALT II treaty, but was already being discontinued by Russia for economic and practical reasons. ICBMs stored in silos were cheaper to deploy and maintain than constantly sending rockets up to circle the earth; and submarine-launched ballistic and cruise missiles could reach their targets nearly as quickly. But this novel is based on the speculation that if Russia did it once, it may do it again. With recent advances in technology like the RS-28 Sarmat missile and with the cost of putting large payloads into space likely to fall dramatically over the next ten years, temptation may once again meet opportunity and result in a weapon such as Groza.
The US X-37 Orbital Test Vehicle exists. The US Air Force currently operates a spacecraft known as the X-37B, a small ‘space shuttle-like’ pilotless space craft that holds the record for the longest time in orbit by a reusable space craft. The X-37C is currently a plan on a drawing board at Boeing, and if it sees the light of day, it will most likely be due to a future need for the US to have its own capability to lift astronauts into space (it is envisaged it will be able to carry a crew module accommodating six personnel). I believe it is reasonable to expect that with the move to modular payload bays in almost all future weapon platforms, the X-37C would also be weaponized.
The RAF Skylon Single-Stage-to-Orbit spacecraft is more than just an idea on a drawing board. The British Government partnered with the European Space Agency in 2010 to explore potential designs for the Skylon. Key to its development was a new engine, and Reaction Engines Sabre motor has been chosen, with industry partners Boeing, Rolls Royce and BAE Systems underwriting development. The consortium has announced ambitious goals for the first Skylon: a max speed in atmosphere of five times the speed of sound (3,800 mph), peak altitude of roughly 92,000 ft and, on return to the ground, a turnaround time of approximately two days, able to complete at least 200 suborbital flights per vehicle. The first test flight of this commercial ‘spaceliner’ concept is scheduled for 2025. This novel speculates about a later Skylon marque, Skylon-D, with similar specs but capable of achieving low earth orbit. It is reasonable to believe the RAF would explore the potential of such a platform for military space operations.
The Chinese Mao Bei ‘Parasite’ satellite defense system already exists and has been observed in action. In 2001, Chinese State media reported that China was testing a ‘parasitic’ micro-satellite that could latch onto another satellite and destroy it on command. In September 2008, China sent two men into space on the Shenzhou-7. During their time in orbit the astronauts released a BX-1 micro-satellite. Within four hours of its release the micro-satellite flew within 27 miles of the International Space Station at a relative speed of 17,000 mph. A collision between the BX-1 and the Station would have destroyed both objects and been fatal to the astronauts aboard the Station. The BX-1 did not strike the Station, but demonstrated China’s ability to develop and deploy a maneuvering micro-satellite with ASAT capabilities. It is reasonable to speculate that by 2034 this technology will have matured, and include the ability to swarm. Of all the weapons described in the novel, I regard this one to be the biggest ‘game changer.’ Cheap to deploy, simple to operate, difficult to detect and avoid, it gives China the power to easily and covertly destroy or disable almost any enemy spacecraft or satellite in orbit. Think about that.
The ALFA-S or Air-Launched Flexible Asset (Swarm) is currently under development by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd and NewSpace Research and Technologies. It is expected to finish testing in 2023 and is yet another example of the underestimated advances being made by the Indian aerospace industry. India already supplies weapons to Saudi Arabia and conducts joint naval exercises. It is reasonable to speculate that an export version of the ALFA-S would find its way into the Saudi inventory.
The Shakti Kill Vehicle already exists. In 2019 India launched it aboard a Prithvi Defense Vehicle Mark-II and successfully intercepted a satellite in low earth orbit. India already jointly develops weapons systems together with the Russian Federation, notably the Brah Mos hypersonic cruise missile. It was considered reasonable therefore to speculate that it might export the Shakti technology to Russia.
High energy laser interceptor systems already exist. Russia tested a carbon dioxide laser system in space known as Polyus as far back as 1987. The US AN/SEQ-3 Laser Weapon System is a 30-kilowatt laser already deployed on the USS Ponce as a close-in defense weapon against airborne threats. The US Army is in active development phase for several platforms including the 50-kilowatt Multi-Mission High Energy Laser (MM-HEL), which will be mounted on infantry fighting vehicles or HUMVEEs. It is also progressing its Indirect Fires Protection Capability-High Energy Laser (IFPC-HEL), a 250 to 300-kilowatt weapon to engage drones and aircraft, with a target service entry date of 2024. In 2018 China revealed its LW-30 30-kilowatt vehicle or ship-mounted laser defense weapon system. This novel assumes that the challenges of how to power such a weapon in space will be overcome in the next 14 years. It is therefore reasonable to speculate that this technology will be mature in Army and Navy use by 2034, and ready for trial in space, where a recoilless directed energy weapon would be ideal.
Space to space autocannon defense weapons have already been deployed in space. The Russian Salyut 3 military space station was armed with a Rikhter-R 23mm autocannon in the 1980s, based on the weapon in use in Russian fighter aircraft at the time. With the advances in sensors, targeting software and thrust vectoring that have taken place in the intervening decades, it is reasonable to expect that mounting autocannon weapons on spacecraft, especially for defense against incoming projectiles/missiles, would be both achievable and desirable.
Meany’s exoskeleton exists in various prototype forms. US Special Operations Command had a project (TALON) which developed a prototype combat version which has not been deployed. At the 2015 Special Operations Forces Industry Conference, Revision Military displayed a prototype Kinetic Operations Suit. Launched a year prior, the suit features a powered, lower-body exoskeleton to transfer the weight down to the waist belt and supports it with motorized actuators on each leg. The exoskeleton supports a body armor system capable of stopping rifle rounds that surrounds 60 percent of the operator, compared to 18 percent with current armor vests. To relieve weight, the leg actuators pick up each leg and move it as the person moves, and take the weight of the helmet, armor, and vest down through a rigid, articulated spine, transferring weight from weak areas of the neck and lower back. A small power pack powers the suit, and a cooling vest pumps water through three yards of tubing under the suit to maintain core temperature; the power pack has a cooling fan that can be heard in close proximity, but it is thought that won’t matter after breaching a door. The Kinetic Operations Suit has undergone live-fire testing and combat scenarios and successfully performed the same tasks as currently outfitted operators in similar amounts of time. Similar systems are in development for civilian use to help people with spinal injuries to walk again. I think it is fair to expect that within 15 years, while they may not be widely available, they will be in use.
On the topic of a possible Saudi-Russian armed conflict, I have been thinking about the potential of this for some years, since pricing disputes surfaced several years ago between Russia and the OPEC Plus group including Saudi Arabia. It was quite chilling when, even as I was writing the final chapters of Orbital, a new cold war started between Russia and Saudi Arabia over production quotas which saw the price of oil fall 25-30 percent globally. This price war, together with the COVID-19 pandemic, saw the price of a barrel of crude oil in May 2020 futures contracts fall below zero. The prospect of a heavily armed nation such as Russia, whose economy is dependent on energy exports (60 percent of exports, 30 percent of GDP), facing economic ruin due to catastrophically low oil prices is quite frankly frightening. Under Vladimir Putin Russia has shown itself to be a tough negotiator, but also, some would say, a r
ational player – though there are few signs it is truly working to reduce its current dependence on energy exports. Chinese energy demand may replace declining demand from Europe, but like the US before it, China is trying to reduce its reliance on imported energy. This novel speculates on what might come after the reign of Putin, if a collapse of energy prices in 2033–34 really pushes Russia to the brink.
Finally, a note on US Space Force, which was established as an independent branch of the US Armed Forces in December 2019. It is currently organized under the US Department of Air Force and the Chief of Operations for Space Force, a former Air Force Brigadier General, is also the Commander of US Space Command. Where US Space Force will eventually be anchored, and where its headquarters will be based, were still unknown at the time of writing. But it is reasonable to speculate that current Air Force space operations units will transition to becoming dedicated Space Force units, and that space-centric facilities such as Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg will eventually be transferred from Air Force to Space Force. A hundred other constellations are also possible, but I went with this one!
You are welcome to debate any of the assumptions and predictions made in Orbital. Just drop in to my Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/hardcorethrillers/
KOBANI: Preview
Read on for a preview of the next novel in the Future War series
Kobani: This is the Future of War.
Kobani. Northern Syria, 1 April 2030.
Marine Infantry Weapons Officer James Jensen had not imagined he was being promoted to ‘Gunner’ in order to become a dog handler. But that’s where he was after seven long years in the US Marines – a heavily armed dog walker.
As he crept through the rubble of a bombed-out grade school in Kobani with his two dogs by his side, he was telling himself this was definitely not what he’d thought he’d signed up for. The role that had been described to him was ‘new weapons systems research and development.’ He’d imagined spending a lot more time on a range at Quantico, drinking bad coffee while evaluating new rifles, grenade launchers or surveillance drones, and a lot less time getting his goddam ass shot at by Syrian army snipers.
