***
‘Welcome to the Big Apple. How are you, Steve?’ It was Fred Bull, and he was remarkably cordial. The sign on the door read ‘New York Institute for International Strategic Analysis.’ It was on the fifth floor, down the bottom end of Wall Street, not far from Pier 11.
‘How was the ride from the hotel?’
‘The ride was excellent, although with the traffic, I could have walked it quicker.’
‘A little bit of luxury must surely be appreciated after so long in Afghanistan.’
‘Yes, it certainly was, and I must thank you for the business class flight from Dubai. I assume you were responsible.’
‘Correct, we will be asking a great deal from you in the future. A lot of which will entail privations on your part, and if it is in my power, I will attempt to make the burden less onerous.’
André was there as well; Steve was shocked to see him.
‘Good to see you,’ Andre said. ‘I was told at short notice that I had a debriefing at NATO headquarters in Brussels. I hitched a lift on a military transporter to Frankfurt, and then a short flight to Brussels. After that, I was booked on a Lufthansa flight to New York.’
‘I tried to phone, but you were probably in the air,’ Steve said.
‘I even managed a night at home with my wife and children. It came as a complete shock when I knocked on the door; I wasn’t due back until Christmas. I believe we are staying at the same hotel.’
Some people at the meeting, Steve already knew: Nick de Oliveira and Chris Haviland were there. They were both wearing suits with André in military uniform. Steve was smart casual, he had an aversion to ties unless absolutely necessary.
Fred Bull addressed the gathering. ‘Ladies and gentlemen, firstly, I would like to welcome Steve Case and Colonel André Peeters to the meeting. Steve is already known to Nick and Chris from a previous meeting in Dubai.’
He looked at André and Steve. ‘We need to upgrade your security classifications. The information that you are to hear, goes way beyond your current level of security clearance. We will deal with the paperwork later.’ André and Steve nodded.
‘Let me say at the outset,’ continued Bull, ‘that André’s assumptions about the Great Game are mostly correct. That is why both Steve and André are here today.’ André was slightly embarrassed; as a military man, he was not used to such compliments.
‘André and Steve will soon realise that the people here today, are actively involved in the evaluation of the New Great Game, that’s what we are calling it. We are aware that André has seen flaws in taking this into reality. The current situation in Afghanistan would make it impossible to contemplate.
‘The think tank assembled here is evaluating all the possibilities, the difficulties, and ultimately the solutions.’
‘Let us all be clear,’ Fred, looking at each person in turn, said. ‘The Game is definitely on – at least, from our perspective. The wealth in Afghanistan, which is well-known and substantial, will not be allowed to remain in the ground. The fact that the country is non-functioning, and that the fundamentalists will soon be in control of significant parts of that country’s future, will not be an allowable deterrent. It is seen by those in this room that if we don’t take control and organise to take the minerals, oil, and natural gas there, then someone - or, should I say, another country to the north, definitely will.
‘It is imperative that we are there first. Regardless of what we may consider as our future mission in Afghanistan, the Afghan people will see us going in again as an occupying force, this one coming back for the second time. It is also believed that by our taking of the wealth within the country, in this case before they do, there will be a response from Russia to the north. It is inevitable, and although our estimation of when this will occur is imprecise, it cannot be discounted.
‘We started this exercise as a think tank, purely looking at how to extract the wealth in the country. We have come to realise that this brings into play many other factors. There is not only the issue of Russia; there is also the relaxing of pressure on Iran to allow access for us into Afghanistan.
‘Will Iran take advantage of this to covertly continue with their nuclear research programme? Will Israel take the opportunity to deal with Iran’s programme while the U.S. is distracted? What was a simple ideal to access the wealth of Afghanistan for the betterment of its people and to the benefit of America, has evolved into a much more complex scenario. We see possible world-changing situations evolving from the one original hypothesis. It is for us to extend our thinking into all the possible directions that our one original action may be the catalyst for.’ What Fred had outlined was sweeping in complexity. It brought clearly into focus the many variables.
‘Apologies,’ Fred said. ‘I have failed to introduce all the people assembled here today. Mary Garcia, a specialist on Central Asian Ethnic groups, and Oliver Young, an expert in the psychology and beliefs of terrorist, extremist and fundamentalist organisations. On Oliver’s left, we have Major General Archie Smyth (Retired), ex-British Army, and an expert in intelligence gathering and subjugation of extremist organisations and undercover operations. Also, moving around the table, we have Grace Tang, Chief Technical Advisor to the Howland Mining Corporation, and Edward Grenfell, geology studies specialising in Central Asia, and finally, Gordon Marshall, logistics expert, and a civilian contractor in Afghanistan from 2002 to 2005.’ It was an eclectic group which would prove to be ideal for the evaluation of all the possible connotations that the original proposition had brought forward.
‘I believe that we will need ten to fourteen days to go through all the presentations and to form a strategy with detailed recommendations.’ Fred’s estimation was to prove vastly underestimated. The initial ten to fourteen days was to expand into months.
‘We have a presentation to make to the president at the White House in three weeks’ time. I cannot stress sufficiently the importance of what we are doing here.’
Edward Grenfell, the first to present, was a PowerPoint man. A tall, lanky man in his early forties, he had gone to school in Birmingham, one hundred miles north of London in England. Academically gifted with an honours degree at Oxford University in Geology, he had found it increasingly difficult to find a suitable position in industry, due to his regional working-class accent. After the fourth rejection for employment, he enrolled into an extensive course of elocution and pronunciation correction lessons in London. Six weeks later, only the most accomplished detector of regional dialects, would have picked his background. On the phone, back home to his mother, he would automatically revert to the accent of his childhood. Here in New York, and certainly in this esteemed gathering, that accent would never be heard.
‘The most important question is, of course, how much mineral wealth does Afghanistan contain?’ Edward Grenfell said. ‘The general view is that there is a potential three trillion dollars in mineral deposits, one trillion dollars in oil, and an additional two trillion dollars in natural gas.’
‘A government department in Kabul is projecting revenue to the Afghan economy, in the order of one billion dollars a year within two years, ramping up to four billion dollars per year within fifteen years. These figures fail to take into count the logistics of removing any extractions out of the country. The mining leases they have granted, mainly to Chinese and Indian concerns, appear to be based on ten per cent royalties, and to date, there have been no extractions.
‘The revenues stated are purely for home consumption, with the vast majority of the populace unable to interpret the fallacy being put forward.
‘Whereas the mineral wealth is substantial, there is one mineral which excites us. This we need to discuss at length.’
Fred interjected. ‘Let’s have a break for lunch before Edward continues. It will require fresh minds to absorb.’ A brief lunch at Fino’s Italian restaurant, a short two-minute walk from the office sufficed. Everyone had Italian, except for Fred who had a steak.
‘We
are aware of the substantial money to be generated,’ Edward continued after lunch. Steve and André were both suffering the effects of jet lag. ‘It is almost certainly, the last untouched region for mining, oil extraction, and natural gas on the planet apart from Antarctica.
‘Antarctica has an extreme climate as its main difficulty, Afghanistan has terrorism, and no access to the sea. In many ways, Antarctica is an easier option.
‘Our primary mineral of interest is lithium, a primary component in the manufacture of batteries for smart phones and laptops. It is also an integral part in the manufacture of electric car battery packs.
‘This mineral, we believe, could be the mainstay of a revitalised American economy. Others will elaborate about the financial and world-changing implications of what we are suggesting here.
‘The major deposits are found in Helmand Province, close to Kandahar. It is right in the centre of the most intense fighting between the Western militaries and the Taliban. Without the Taliban in accord, we will never be able to access it.
‘The deposits in Helmand are at least double of those found in Bolivia, currently the Worlds’ largest known deposits. This would place a value of three hundred billion dollars on this one mineral in Afghanistan. This is a fraction of its true wealth, if the advice of the think tank is taken and implemented.’
Steve felt it appropriate to interrupt Edwards’s presentation. ‘We have heard mention of moderate Taliban in Afghanistan.’
Fred responded to Steve’s statement. ‘You are correct. We are aware of the moderates, although how they will gain control of the Taliban leadership, let alone control the Taliban majority is a whole different issue. We may well ask your assistance here, although it is a risky venture. Some of our people who have attempted to discuss with the known moderates have been killed.’ Fred had given the first concrete evidence that possibly Leopold Laterme, the murdered engineer, had been one of those people in contact with the moderates.
‘Was Laterme involved in such discussions?’ André asked.
‘Let us discuss later.’
‘Later, that’s fine.’ André agreed.
Chapter 5
‘Ladies and Gentleman, we are going to take the resources from Afghanistan. The Game is not about compromise. For over two thousand years, foreign powers have tried to control Afghanistan, and not one country has managed to hold it for more than ten to twenty years. The U.S. and NATO are pulling their military out. They will offer statements of mandate achieved, and so on. But, let us be honest, what did we achieve, not a lot?’ Fred said the next morning as he opened the day’s proceedings.
‘That is why the president is interested to see if there is another way,’ Nick said.
‘I do not believe that we should keep Steve and André here for the full period,’ Fred continued. ‘It is important that they return to Afghanistan. I would appreciate them staying to hear from Mary about the ethnic groupings and tribes in Afghanistan, and then by Oliver, who is an acknowledged expert on the Taliban.
‘Steve and André have asked for at least ten days with their respective families before returning. Their next return home is undefined, at least for Steve.’ Fred was aware that for both men, especially Steve, Kabul may not be as safe as either he or they would like. Laterme had been attempting to broker a deal with the moderate Taliban, and it had sealed his fate. He was asking the same of Steve. He could end up face down in the dirt with a bullet in his head. The stakes were high; there were bound to be casualties. He could not allow himself the luxury of remorse and sorrow, he knew there was a plan to be achieved, and a plan for success always had an accompanying risk, and the risk in Afghanistan always meant people’s lives.
Conversations with Steve, indicated that Latif in Kandahar may be a useful person that they could use. He had asked for checks to be carried out, but they needed to be very careful, Latif could be Taliban. Laterme, the former engineer, had been killed by persons connected to the government in Kabul, this was all too clear. Fred saw that the three in the country were ideal for what he required. André was good at seeing beyond the obvious, picking the little detail and analysing what it meant. Steve, meanwhile, was able to move around the country without raising undue suspicion. Abdul had proven himself to be adroit and good at keeping his ears pricked within the central government.
***
Mary Garcia was a pleasant woman in her late 40s, a little overweight, and smartly dressed in a dark business suit, obviously tailored to conceal her love of tortillas. Her name and her appearance suggested Mexican heritage. A professorship in the Department of Ethnic Studies at the University of California at Berkeley, she had been seconded to the think tank. An academic, she preferred the discipline and the tranquillity to conduct her research, to teach, and to look after her two cats. ‘It is important that we understand the ethnic and tribal make up of Afghanistan. We cannot apply a plan and solution to one area, and assume that it will apply throughout the country. It is a divisive society that barely functions. There are religious divides between the Sunni and Shia, and ethnic divides which, although not as extreme, makes cooperation amongst them extremely difficult.
‘The country has eight main ethnic groups spread through a population of about twenty-eight million. There are an additional three million living as refugees in Iran and Pakistan.
‘We will focus on the four main groups, and also the conflict between Sunni and Shia Muslims. It is very relevant, especially when referring to the Taliban.
‘The Pashtun are Sunni Muslims, and the largest ethnic grouping in the country, and they account for about forty-two per cent of the population, close to twelve million persons. They have the widest distribution throughout the country and are predominant from Jalalabad in the south-east, through Kabul, Kandahar and up to just south of Herat in the North West.
‘The Tajiks, also Sunni Muslim, comprise twenty-seven per cent, just over seven million persons. They are predominant in Herat, Mazar-i-Sharif, the major cities in the North and North West and the area north of Kabul up to the border with Tajikistan.
‘Hazara, Shia Muslim, comprise nine per cent and are invariably the most impoverished, due to the prejudice that exists towards the Shia’s from the Sunni’s, and also because of their Mongol appearance. There are about two and a half million in the centre of the country. They are believed to be descendants of Mongol warriors that came down through Afghanistan with Genghis Khan in the twelfth century.
‘Finally, the Uzbek. There are about two to three million, concentrated mainly in the north of the country in the areas bordering Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and South Western Tajikistan. They are also Sunni Muslim.
‘The Taliban see the Hazara Shias as heretics and not true Muslims. This will impact the Game as it moves forward. Oliver will no doubt bring this up in his presentation.’
Major General Archie Smyth diverted his eyes from Mary’s presentation and thought to himself, the Taliban dislike of the Hazara will not impact if my plan is implemented. A realist, he clearly saw that moderate or otherwise, their religious ideology would negate any agreement made with them in good faith. He would keep his thoughts to himself for the time being, at least until there were people present who would be more conducive to his ultimate solution.
At the conclusion of Mary’s presentation, Fred stood up to speak. ‘We will have one more presentation for today, and then I would like to spend an hour with Steve and André. I would ask Oliver, if possible, to keep his presentation down to three hours.’
Professor Oliver Young of the Center for Terrorism and Security Studies at the University of Lowell in Massachusetts was a slender, physically fit man in his early forties; he ran marathons competitively. An ex-Major in the U.S. army he had seen service in both Iraq and Afghanistan, before turning his attention to academia. ‘It is apparent, that the general consensus is that a compliant Taliban is a solution for the Game to be successfully implemented. I feel that I need to clear up this misperception.
‘The
Taliban never controlled the total land mass of Afghanistan. At one stage, it may have been ninety per cent, but that was with intense fighting and savagery. True, they did control crime and corruption within the society, but they were responsible for some of the most horrendous and heinous crimes.
‘If we are to use them, then we need to be open and candid, as to what, and whom we are dealing with. We need to break the country down by regions. We need to examine who are the key people, whether they are to be trusted, whether they will be compliant.
‘The Pashtuns, which include the Taliban, control the largest area of the country. It would seem logical that the easiest manner to secure an area, is to ensure the dominant ethnic grouping is in control. The Taliban is comprised of religious zealots, some moderate Sunni Muslims, as well as a rabble of poorly-educated, violent and radicalised people. About ninety thousand Afghans, including their spiritual leader Mullah Omar, were trained by Pakistan during the eighties, with the United States and Saudi Arabia providing the money.
‘After the USSR retreated from Afghanistan in the late eighties, the Russians continued to support President Mohammad Najibullah, the Soviet puppet, up until his overthrow in 1992. He was to remain in the UN compound in Kabul until 1996, when the Taliban came for him. He was castrated and then dragged around Kabul tied to the back of a truck, typical Taliban justice.
‘In 1992, several Afghan political parties agreed on a peace and power-sharing agreement, the Peshawar Accord, that created the Islamic State of Afghanistan.
‘The Taliban in 1992 barely existed then, but within two years they became a significant force after fifteen thousand students arrived from the religious schools in Pakistan. They took Kandahar as their main base. By late 1996, they had conquered Kabul with military support from Pakistan, and financial assistance courtesy of Saudi Arabia.
Prelude To War: World War 3 (Steve Case Thriller Book 1) Page 5
