by Shuja Nawaz
SHUJA NAWAZ
THE BATTLE FOR PAKISTAN
The Bitter US Friendship and a Tough Neighbourhood
PENGUIN BOOKS
Contents
Important Milestones 2007–19
Abbreviations and Acronyms
Preface: Salvaging a Misalliance
1. The Revenge of Democracy?
2. Friends or Frenemies?
3. 2011: A Most Horrible Year!
4. From Tora Bora to Pathan Gali
5. Internal Battles
6. Salala: Anatomy of a Failed Alliance
7. Mismanaging the Civil–Military Relationship
8. US Aid: Leverage or a Trap?
9. Mil-to-Mil Relations: Do More
10. Standing in the Right Corner
11. Transforming the Pakistan Army
12. Pakistan’s Military Dilemma
13. Choices
Footnotes
Important Milestones 2007–19
Preface: Salvaging a Misalliance
1. The Revenge of Democracy?
2. Friends or Frenemies?
3. 2011: A Most Horrible Year!
4. From Tora Bora to Pathan Gali
5. Internal Battles
6. Salala: Anatomy of a Failed Alliance
7. Mismanaging the Civil–Military Relationship
8. US Aid: Leverage or a Trap?
9. Mil-to-Mil Relations: Do More
10. Standing in the Right Corner
11. Transforming the Pakistan Army
12. Pakistan’s Military Dilemma
13. Choices
Select Bibliography
Acknowledgements
Follow Penguin
Copyright
Advance Praise for the Book
‘An intriguing, comprehensive and compassionate analysis of the dysfunctional relationship between the United States and Pakistan by the premier expert on the Pakistan Army. Shuja Nawaz exposes the misconceptions and contradictions on both sides of one of the most crucial bilateral relations in the world’
—BRUCE RIEDEL, senior fellow and director of the Brookings Intelligence Project, and author of Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America and the Future of the Global Jihad
‘A superb, thoroughly researched account of the complex dynamics that have defined the internal and external realities of Pakistan over the past dozen years. The Battle for Pakistan is a compelling read that provides enormous insights on the forces at work within Pakistan as the country’s civilian and military leaders determine Pakistan’s way forward at a critical juncture in time’
—GENERAL DAVID PETRAEUS, former commander of the US Central Command and Coalition Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and former director of the CIA
‘With well-researched and meticulously collected information, in-depth analyses and scholarly insights, Shuja Nawaz has produced an impressive and invaluable study of the twists and turns of US–Pakistan relations. Only a person with his understanding of the political dynamics in the two countries could provide such an authoritative and cogent account of how the dissonant but important respective interests of the two countries brought about periods of consequential cooperation. And yet these interests failed to create a basis for a stable relationship which continues to have critical relevance to the complex circumstances of the region. This book will be essential reading on the subject and for examining the past six decades of developments in the region’
—RIAZ MOHAMMED KHAN, former Foreign Secretary of Pakistan, and author of Afghanistan and Pakistan: Conflict, Extremism, and Resistance to Modernity
‘Shuja Nawaz has followed up his earlier tour de force on the Pakistan Army—Crossed Swords: Pakistan, Its Army and the Wars Within—with a superbly researched study of the US–Pakistan relationship in all its dimensions. The Battle for Pakistan is essential reading for anyone attempting to fathom the fundamentals of the relationship between the two countries now and in the future. Shuja’s view is truly panoramic and he has masterfully pieced together the many facets of a complex and evolving relationship. His insights and deep analyses are invaluable for understanding the forces of change that are shaping the relationship and Pakistan’s future’
—GENERAL JEHANGIR KARAMAT, former Chief of Army Staff and Pakistan ambassador to the United States
‘An engaging and insightful exploration of the realities and dynamics that have shaped present-day Pakistan and the US–Pakistan relationship. Nawaz captures the essence of Pakistan’s seventy-year difficult and rocky journey. A relevant and important book’
—CHUCK HAGEL, former US Secretary of Defense and US senator
‘Writing about Pakistan is often like travelling through the looking glass, given the vast difference in perception of the nation from the outside and the perception that those within have of the world outside. Just as he did with his last book, in The Battle for Pakistan, Shuja Nawaz deftly manages the journey between what he calls “both homelands”, US and Pakistan: balancing a critical look of Pakistan’s actions on terror and foreign policy in the past decade and a half, with an insider’s account of who said what to whom, unravelling events like the killing of Osama Bin Laden to civil–military tensions, and all that led up to the Imran Khan election. The suggestions Mr Nawaz proffers at the end of the book bear some careful study as well’
—SUHASINI HAIDAR, diplomatic editor, The Hindu
‘In The Battle for Pakistan Shuja Nawaz delivers a forensic and illuminating investigation of the troubled relationship between the United States and Pakistan. His work is informed by valuable original interviews and delivers new details and evidence—including about the hunt for Osama Bin Laden—that will be of great interest to scholars, analysts and the general public in both countries’
—STEVE COLL, Pulitzer Prize–winning author of Ghost Wars and most recently Directorate S: The CIA and America’s Secret Wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan
‘Shuja Nawaz has written with deep knowledge and arresting eloquence about what he calls the “misalliance” between two nations that often misunderstand each other, but must ultimately reach an understanding as two vital partners in a necessary alliance. And he writes as a citizen and insider of both countries, with matchless personal knowledge of the personalities who have both made history and will make the future. There is no better or more compelling volume to read about this often troubled, but imperative relationship between two nations on other sides of the world that have been brought into the same orbit by geopolitics, and an increasing diaspora of human talent’
—SCOTT SIMON, Peabody Award–winning host of National Public Radio’s Weekend Edition Saturday
‘Shuja Nawaz’s new book, The Battle for Pakistan, makes a critical contribution to our understanding of the turbulence of the last decade in US–Pakistan ties and Pakistan’s fight for its democracy and security. US–Pakistan relations have long suffered because of mutual mistrust, suspicion and misunderstanding. Shuja’s unique access in Washington and Islamabad has allowed him to tell both sides of the story. In doing so, hopefully this book can contribute to improved relations between our two countries in the coming decade and beyond’
—GENERAL JAMES JONES, former Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, and National Security Advisor to President Barack Obama
‘His unique access to centres of power in Washington, Islamabad and Rawalpindi enable Shuja Nawaz to offer rare and fascinating insights into the roller-coaster US–Pakistan relationship. As the Afghanistan–Pakistan drama heads for denouement, The Battle for Pakistan promises to be an invaluable guidebook for politicians, diplomats and soldiers attempting to navigate this South Asian quagmire’
—ADM. ARUN PRAKASH, former chief of the Indian Navy and chairman, Chiefs of Staff
This book is for the future generations of leaders in Pakistan and the United States.
More specifically, our beloved and fearless granddaughters
Karam, Lina and Norah . . .
Important Milestones 2007–19
2007
9 March Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry removed by President Musharraf.
3–11 July Assault on Red Mosque in Islamabad under Operation Silence.
20 July Chief Justice Chaudhry reinstated.
23 August Supreme Court rules exiled former PM Nawaz Sharif can return to Pakistan.
10 September Nawaz Sharif returns, only to be deported again from Islamabad airport.
14 September Benazir Bhutto announces she will return from exile on 18 October.
5 October National Reconciliation Ordinance promulgated to allow indemnified politicians to return from exile.
6 October Pervez Musharraf re-elected as president. Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) boycotts presidential election.
18–19 October Benazir Bhutto returns from Dubai to Karachi. Double bomb blasts greet her caravan from the airport to Bilawal House. Over 160 killed.
3 November State of Emergency declared. Chief Justice removed, lawyers and political workers arrested; private TV channels shut down; Abdul Hameed Dogar installed as new Chief Justice.
12 November Pakistan Army sends 12,000 troops to begin Operation Rah-e-Haq against local Taliban in Swat.
18 November Caretaker Prime Minister Mohammad Mian Soomro installed.
24 November Suicide bomber near army headquarters in Rawalpindi kills at least thirty-five persons.
25 November Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shehbaz return to Pakistan.
4 December Twenty-four high court judges retired. Chief Justice Chaudhry and Justices Rana Bhagwandas and Khalilur Rehman Ramday also dismissed.
14 December International Republican Institute of United States poll shows Musharraf and army popularity dramatically decreased; orders to amend Constitution issued to allow waiver of two-year ban on government officials to run for president; National Command Authority established under president to control nuclear policy and assets.
27 December Benazir Bhutto assassinated after speech at Liaquat Bagh in Rawalpindi. Additional twenty-one persons killed in associated bomb blast.
30 December Bilawal Zardari named chairperson of the PPP. Both PPP and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) announce that they will participate in elections.
2008
2 January Election Commission announces elections to be held on 18 February; Asif Ali Zardari repeats his demand for UN investigation of his wife Benazir Bhutto’s assassination.
18 January Director CIA Gen. Michael Hayden blames Al-Qaeda and Baitullah Mehsud of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) for Bhutto murder. Mehsud denies any link.
19 January Pakistan claims fifteen-year-old boy captured who claims to be part of five-person team headed by Baitullah Mehsud that was involved in Bhutto killing. Mehsud says he has no link to the boy.
8 February Scotland Yard investigation states Bhutto was killed by the impact of the explosion and not by bullets fired at her.
19 February Election results indicate big win for PPP. PML-N keeps Punjab.
21 February PPP and PML-N agree to coalition at the Centre.
25 February A suicide bomber kills an army three-star general and seven others on a street in Rawalpindi. Six injured.
7 March Army Chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani denies differences between him and President Musharraf.
24 March Yousaf Raza Gilani of PPP elected prime minister.
26 March Senior American officials John Negroponte and Richard Boucher land in Islamabad to meet politicians.
24 May Zardari unveils sixty-two-point plan to change Constitution and reduce the powers of the president.
26 May Nawaz Sharif says Musharraf should be tried for ‘high treason’ under Article 6 of the Constitution for overthrowing Sharif ’s government.
7 June Musharraf tells press conference he will not resign.
10 June US air strike on Frontier Corps post on Afghan border leaves eleven FC soldiers and twelve alleged militants dead.
15 June Gen. Stanley McChrystal takes over as twelfth coalition commander and third US commander in Afghanistan since 2002. (He was to resign on 23 June 2010, following publication of remarks critical of President Obama and Vice-President Biden in Rolling Stone magazine.) Succeeded by David Petraeus, then commander United States Central Command (CENTCOM).
17 June For the first time in Pakistan’s history, the senate discusses the defence budget.
30 June Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Richard Boucher returns to Pakistan to meet government and military officials.
2 July The US will strike inside Pakistan if Bin Laden is found to be there, according to a Washington Post report.
16 July The US did not know about the location of the FC post that the US attacked in June, according to a New York Times report.
26 July Government notification places Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Intelligence Bureau under Minister of Interior. Decision reversed within hours following pushback from military.
7 August Zardari and Sharif announce they are ready to impeach Musharraf and restore judges removed by him, after his impeachment.
8 August Pakistan Army reportedly asks Musharraf to step down within a week, according to the Daily Telegraph.
18 August Musharraf resigns. Chairman of the senate Muhammad Mian Soomro takes over as president, according to the Constitution.
21 August TTP-owned suicide bomb blast kills seventy and injures over sixty outside Pakistan Ordnance Factory in Wah Cantonment.
22 August Election Commission announces presidential election on 6 September.
23 August Zardari will be a candidate for the presidency, according to the PPP.
3 September North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) forces land via helicopters and attack suspected militant targets at Angoor Adda in South Waziristan border region.
6 September Asif Ali Zardari elected president of Pakistan.
11 September President George W. Bush authorizes US troops to carry out ground attacks inside Pakistan without seeking Pakistani permission, according to the New York Times.
20 September The JW Marriott Hotel in Islamabad attacked by truck bomb. fifty dead, over 200 injured. Next day, hitherto unknown Fadayan-e Islam takes credit.
25 September Inter-Service Public Relations (ISPR) directorate states Pakistan fired on two intruding US helicopters.
27 September President Zardari denies exchange of fire with NATO forces. US Admiral Mike Mullen says Pakistani forces did fire and American forces returned small arms fire.
29 September Major shuffle announced in army high command by Gen. Kayani. Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha appointed director general (DG) ISI.
16 November International Monetary Fund (IMF) announces $7.6 billion programme to assist Pakistan.
26–29 November Militants attack sites in Mumbai, India. As many as 195 persons killed over three-day period. India accuses Pakistani-based militants of attack.
7 December US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says Pakistani soil was used in planning Mumbai attacks.
28 December Islamabad Marriot reopens after massive and rapid renovation.
2009
1 January US drone strike kills four in South Waziristan, presaging increased drone attacks.
7 January Pakistan National Security Adviser Maj. Gen. (retd) Mahmud Ali Durrani admits Ajmal Kasab, captured in Mumbai attacks, is a Pakistani. Minister for Information and Broadcasting Sherry Rehman also reportedly confirms the same. PM Gilani sacks Durrani.
20 January President Barack Obama takes oath of office.
27 January US Defense Secretary Gates, holdover from the Bush administration, says drone strikes will continue inside Pakistan.
4 February UN Secreta
ry-General Ban Ki-moon announces formation of a UN Commission under the Chilean ambassador to the United Nations to investigate the death of Benazir Bhutto.
9 February Islamabad High Court frees nuclear engineer Dr A.Q. Khan. The US is concerned about this measure.
13 February US Senate Chair of the Intelligence Committee, Senator Dianne Feinstein, says US drones are also being flown from bases inside Pakistan.
3 March Terrorists strike Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore. Six policemen and one civilian killed. Two Sri Lankan cricketers injured.
15 March Nawaz Sharif starts the Long March from Lahore to Islamabad.
PM Gilani concedes to demand for the reinstatement of the Chief Justice after intervention by army chief with the PM and President Zardari.
27 March President Obama announces new US strategies on Afghanistan and Pakistan, after review led by Bruce Riedel. ‘The future of Afghanistan is inextricably linked to the future of its neighbor Pakistan. In the nearly eight years since 9/11, Al Qaida and its extremist allies have moved across the border to remote areas of the Pakistani frontier . . . or the American people, this border region has become the most dangerous place in the world.’
30 March TTP attacks police academy in Lahore. 8 killed, 100 injured.
3 April Video emerges of young girl being flogged by the Taliban in Swat.
6 April Admiral Mullen says top Taliban leaders hiding in Quetta, Balochistan.
16 April PML-N says it will not rejoin the government of Zardari.
21 April Taliban reported to be entering Buner in Swat.
22 April Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says the Pakistan government is abdicating to Taliban.
23 April Taliban enter Shangla, threatening Karakoram Highway.
26 April Pakistan Army launches operations in Buner. Locals asked to vacate area.
6 May Presidents Obama, Karzai and Zardari meet at the White House to determine future trilateral strategy.
7 May PM Gilani announces full-scale military operations in Malakand division.
29–30 May ISPR states both Mingora and Peochar Valley in Swat cleared of the Taliban.
