The Devil's Playground

by Michael Reagan

it served the United States' position for the moment to have Russia focusing its interests on the challenge to Russia's authority by a former satellite State rather than have Russia's potential interfering in the land grab of the Japan Sea that would undermine their entire economy in the long term.

  He smiled at the mature airhostess who interrupted his thoughts for a few moments by asking him if he would like a drink and something to eat. In the mood for a class of red he answered that would be fine before he went back to pondering on the intelligence.

  He didn't have a problem with regime changes to protect the position of the United States. As it was he was currently overseeing several operations in Brazil and Guatemala to counter the growing influence of China's and the Middle Eastern State of Qatar's money in those countries. What had outraged him was the abuse of power by those the Americans had been charged to protect and look after their rights. Young and Dowling, who it appeared, were acting without portfolio and no better than the former dictators or religious zealots he had worked with before finding his home at Langley. The purpose of his trip to Moscow had been to gather intelligence to assess whether or not the Russians were behind the attack on Saman Depe. He quickly found out via his meeting with Thomas and then with several others of his oligarch clients in Moscow that the Russians were not. That was worrying. That meant there was an unseen party in play.

  Rob's geo-political mind went to work on the problem as to who could possibly gain from such an attack.

  "The Turkmen President?

  His war of words with the Russians over the last few days certainly hadn't helped the situation." he thought, as the airhostess bought him a class of Argentinean Malbec Tupungato from the Masi winery.

  "Surely he knows they will respond?" he mused, referring to the Russians as he focused on the diplomatic language of the Chinese, the biggest customer of Turkmenistan gas via the Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan pipeline outside Russia.

  Over the last few years it had not been lost on the Agency analysts that the Energy Security of the People's Republic of China had changed their focus from concerns over their need to guarantee itself and its industries long-term access to sufficient energy and raw materials. Achieved, not only by their thirty-year gas deal being signed in 2014, but also by China's diversification of its providers to counter Russia's reemergence as a world power.

  Yet as far as Rob was concerned, this had been done for reasons he considered far more important than those peddled by the young Agency desk Turks.

  Rob knew it had been undertaken due to the dwindling supply of the critical live blood of all nations-water.

  When a nation's public tends think about water use, they think about the water they drink, but the simple fact of the matter was that water is needed to grow food, generate electricity, make clothes, and extract minerals. In short, water drives a nation's economy. In China, ninety-seven percent of their electricity is water generated and it requires water to produce all of those things, so no water literally means, no power, no food.

  Up until 2014, coal had been central to China's energy policy with ninety-five percent of China's coal mined underground, with heavy reliance on groundwater use in its extraction. With seventy percent of their coal production coming from Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi & Hebei provinces, this single factor alone led to a further deterioration of the already polluted groundwater in the North China Plain.

  This in turn, affected the breadbasket of the country and in devastating terms with a series low yield harvests in recent years, forcing China to import even more grain, Seven percent of the world's total production to be precise, and rising.

  China's Central Committee, scared by findings of a report they had commissioned that had identified just over one million cubic meters of groundwater was being destroyed per one ton of coal extracted, reacted in the only way they knew how-they "changed the direction of the river."

  During his stint in the service of the Sheikh whilst attending an informal dinner with the then President of China, Hu Jintao, Rob had asked the man what was overriding goal of the Party in the modern world.

  The President had heartily laughed at his question. "Rob, everything we do is focused on being able to feed our people. If we left it to them, then in two weeks they would have nothing! We can live without electronics but we cannot live without rice," he had said, before going on to explain in critical terms the failure of the Red book policies of Mao when sixty million died from starvation.

  So when his own analyst in the SAD reported that the Central Committee had ordered by a Decree a shift to natural gas, it had not been a surprise to him. The only problem with this type of policy shift was being able to meet that demand surge for that resource.

  Foreign Oil & Gas imports now accounted for sixty percent of China's total requirements and it was because of this China had been flexing its economic muscles in Africa and Asia with the provision of military hardware and advisors to assist in "crowd control" to use their language. The recent deployment of a police force to South Sudan under the guise of an invitation was a more recent example.

  "Was the covert attack on Saman Depe refinery the latest?" he pondered as he sipped on the rich red wine.

  31

  Liancourt Rocks, Japan Sea

  On the collection of the small rock isles there is a lighthouse, a helicopter pad, and a police barracks that houses thirty police officers.

  The Colonel named Takashi Usami, who held the command of the Tokushu Sakusen Gun (Japanese Special Forces Group), stood in the tower of a surfaced submarine positioned just off the rocks watching the movement of his men onto the rocks by stealth helicopters that had arrived from the mainland.

  In training for the attack ever since the Prime Minister had personally summoned him to ask him to formulate a strategy of the annexation of Takeshima (the Japanese name for the islands) a month ago the moment of truth of his skill and strategic planning had arrived. With a large-scale conventional landing by warship deemed too difficult, due to the island's steep-sided rocky outcrops and with only one concrete landing wharf, it had been deemed that the best approach would be the small units securing all entry and exit points of the islands.

  The mission designed as Japan's bold statement of intent had required the Japanese Defense Forces to mobilize its entire armed forces. This was achieved without drawing attention under the guise of its annual military exercises with the Americans.

  When he had briefed the Prime Minister twenty-four hours ago, Takashi had explained the first priority of the attack was to deny the Koreans the opportunity to deploy reinforcements. That required the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Forces (MSDF) to seize the initiative by cordoning off the Islands of Ulleungdo some ninety kilometers to the West. When the Prime Minister had asked why this was important, Takashi had answered because it was the only piece of Korean territory that had port facilities and therefore could provide assistance to the Korean police officers for any counter attack.

  At the time, Takashi never believed, despite the intensive training that the Prime Minister would order such an action, preferring to reason Japan's Armed Forces they were being trained for the assault was part of some sort of Public Relations exercise designed to force the Koreans and their partners to reduce the price of LNG. The outcome of that briefing however had only proved to him just how wrong it was to second-guess what drives a politician's brain.

  "Are you sure a direct attack on Korean soil is required?" the Prime Minister had questioned with a concerned look on his face.

  "Naikaku-s?ri-daijin-San," Admiral Hotaru Sugimoto, the Chief of Staff of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, had replied, using the title of Prime Minister so he could interrupt politely. "This would be done with the S?ry?s submarines and our three Aegis Missile destroyers. They are superior to anything the Korean Armed Forces currently have and will form an exclusion zone around the island so no actual attack on the Islands will happen."

  The Prime Minister had nodded in rel
ief and then had queried, "What about Air Support?" This time it had been the turn of the Chief of Staff, Air Self Defense Force General Shunsuke Ando to answer.

  "While the Koreans possess twenty F-15K, thirty-five Mig-29 and their aircraft are superior to that of our Air Force, our pilots are better skilled. So with our early-warning aircraft we should have the ability to respond quickly to any threats from the air."

  At the time Takashi had watched the Prime Minister take a moment to reflect on the analysis before refocusing his gaze in the direction of the Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Council of the Japan Self-Defense Forces. He had hoped that this would be the moment common sense would prevail. He couldn't have been more wrong.

  "What happens if I order this, Akira-San?" the Prime Minister had asked, using the General's first name respectfully.

  "Our analysts believe that in the likely event of a prolonged conflict then Japan would have to concentrate its forces facing the Korean peninsula. The Koreans' response would be to shift its forces to the south to counter this. That would mean breaking the reunification accord that the former North units would not be deployed in the South," the experienced commander had said

  "However, despite the belligerent behavior of members of the United Korean Government and military