“I managed a couple of hours FOB this afternoon, but I had a bit of a session before that, so I really appreciate your input. The data I’m looking for could be crucial for both of us. What I need most of all is to put together a timeline covering multiple weather incidents in different parts of the world. My gut instincts tell me there’s a connection between them we haven’t yet made, but if we can link ’em up, we might be some way to working out a plan of action—that’s as much as I can tell you. I’m involved in something with a classified tag I didn’t even know existed.”
“Sending the email as we speak…okay?”
“Got it, Rob. How are you coping with the floods?”
“The waters are going down. We can start mopping-up ops soon—maybe even today. The hospitals are coping, and I’ve not heard of any fatalities yet.”
“That’s a plus in itself. How about New Zealand? Some of my friends have relatives in Christchurch. They haven’t been able to get in touch yet.”
“The earthquakes have caused a lot of damage, but once again, there doesn’t seem to have been any loss of life. Our local fire chief says he’s come across a bushranger who also has relatives in New Zealand. He’s been in touch with them, and the damage is substantial but not life-threatening.”
“I’m more interested in the wider picture, Rob. I’m looking at the timeline of the tsunami which struck Japan just after the NZ quakes. About thirty hours later, by the looks of it?”
“Yeah, that’s about right. Is the timing significant?”
“Could be the most important single factor. I’m starting to get an overall picture, and I’m not happy with what I see developing. I need more corroboration from other global locations before I take it to…my superiors because they’re going to ask me for suggestions.”
“Joey, don’t bullshit me. We’ve known each other too long for that. I accept that you’re working on something hush-hush, but you’ve already said you’re collating data worldwide, so it doesn’t take too much imagination. This is serious, my friend. Very serious, n’est-ce pas?”
“Rob, I’ve said too much already. I have to speak to someone in authority before I say another word. Do you have any sort of security vetting in Oz? Have you personally ever been involved in any military projects? If they run a check, would they find any dusty ol’ skeletons in the cupboard? And would you be interested in joining the team, maybe running one of your own if he’s satisfied with your security clearance?”
“If that happens, I’ll need to have some say on the make-up of the team.”
“I’m sure that can be arranged, Rob.”
***
“Brigadier, the data I’ve received so far from colleagues at other weather stations around the world is giving me cause for concern. The overall picture is changing, and I’m not talking about minor, temporary or seasonal fluctuations in weather patterns or a random spike in climatic differences.”
“Don’t dress it up in fancy language, Doctor. We’ll be here all night if you do that. Keep it short and simple and we may have time to plan countermeasures.”
“Point taken, Sir.”
Joey paused to collect his handwritten notes and decide how to put across what he felt to be the main points in non-technical terms.
“Set on a timeline of events, everything to date has followed from one of two random points of origin that occurred within a few days of each other. One was the eruption of the volcano at Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland.”
“And the second?”
“At the moment, I can’t give an exact time and date on this, but I’m working on it. The second event was just before the earthquakes hit New Zealand, some thousand miles or more to the northwest and several thousand feet down.
“We’ve known for a long time about the natural fault on the bed of the Pacific where two tectonic plates bump and grind against each other.
“In simple terms, Brigadier, what we believe has happened is that these two unimaginable masses of bedrock have surpassed a stress level that has been building for thousands of years, and one of them has slipped over or under the other, easing the pressure build-up and setting in motion a ripple of energy, which has travelled for the most part southeast—think anticlockwise if that helps—until it reached the west coast of New Zealand.”
“So, this ripple you talk about. Is it possible that over the distance involved, it could grow and become more powerful?”
“Exactly, Brigadier. I won’t go into the scientific formulae, but in a nutshell, that’s what I think has happened.”
“You mentioned a possible tie-in with Japan. In the opposite direction?”
“Basic physics, Sir. Did you ever hear ‘To every action there is—”
“An equal and opposite reaction,” Groth interrupted. “Yes, as it happens, I do remember that one. You’re telling me that’s what you think happened here? That the earthquakes in New Zealand and the tsunami in Japan have a common origin?”
“That’s one possible interpretation of the facts available at the moment, Sir. Of course, it might not be the only one. In truth, it might not even be the right one, but it’s all I have to offer until I find something to back it up.”
“I’m not clear on how this…event, as you call it, can affect two countries in totally opposite directions.”
“Sir, it’s precisely because they’re in opposite directions the two countries were both affected. The ripple heading northeast from the site of the underground shift was the reaction, if you like, and for that reason, it was significantly weaker than the one which hit New Zealand and then Australia, I’d guess, though I haven’t done my homework on that yet.”
“It was strong enough to destroy their nuclear plants. We’ll be dealing with the aftermath for the foreseeable future, all the same.” Groth grunted, seemingly more to himself than to Joey. After the briefest of pauses, he continued. “The eruption at this unpronounceable place in Iceland. When it happened, we were all concerned with the effects it would have on the skies above, the potential for pollution problems—whether it would cause non-nuclear fallout problems with ash on crops, that sort of thing. Are you telling me the eruption would have set up similar underground shock waves at the same time, heading south to affect the UK?”
“Unfortunately, yes, Brigadier. Weaker, of course, but still following the same basic laws of physics and measurable on our instruments.”
The brigadier seemed to mull this over but only for a few seconds. Next time he spoke, there was a much more authoritative, steely edge to his voice.
“I need your suggestions for an action plan, based on how to tackle the worst-case scenario if everything goes pear-shaped. For the moment, you can forget the logistics of evacuating people from affected areas or other practical matters. There are contingency plans available that could always be adapted to suit a different non-military scenario. I’m far more interested in anything you scientists can come up with to counter the physical, geological problems that lie behind the problem we have to tackle.”
“How soon can you vet the list of people I want on my team? Because if we’re talking about action plans, I’m going to need all the help I can get.”
“Doctor Hart, I’m prepared to go out on a limb on this one if it will save us some time. I trust your judgement. If you’re prepared to vouch for each and every member of your team, you can call in the expert help you feel you need.”
“Brigadier, that’s much appreciated. I’ve already sent my list.”
“Yes, I’ve seen it. A small, balanced group. People with specialist knowledge. I don’t foresee any problems with background checks.”
“We won’t let you down, Sir. I’ll get the team together. We’ll give it our best shot.”
For once, Joey just might have beaten Groth to the punch, as he signed off the landline call while hitting the call button on Skype.
“Dave? Pack a bag, I need your input on my team.”
Chapter Sixteen
“Pete’s been on
Skype while you were out, Dave.” Brenda intercepted her husband as he came through the door. “He said they had a few bits and pieces of crockery smashed but otherwise no real damage where they live. The quake centred on the capital, about three hundred miles from where they live.”
“Remind me to contact him for an eyewitness report when we get to Bidston Hill. I’m sure Joey will be able to find a use for a first-hand account. Have you got everything we might need for an extended stay? I can’t say how long we’re going to be away, sweetheart.”
Brenda brushed back her hair. “Joey said we needn’t think of any food, drinks or anything of that nature. The building was equipped as an emergency HQ by the MOD, years ago. Several changes of clothes, I reckon, and we should probably stop somewhere and pick up all the most recent newspapers, although even news is something we can get from the internet.”
The distinct sound of tyres on gravel announced a visitor. Dave opened the door as Errol was about to knock. He was toting a paper bag that threatened to burst at the seams.
“Anyone thirsty?” he drawled, tipping his hat to Brenda in the old-fashioned style of a cartoon Southern gen’leman.
“Perfect timing,” Dave answered with an equally deliberate, over-the-top grand bow of welcome. Brenda was already hunting for glasses.
“You’re off somewhere, I see. Anywhere nice?”
Caught off guard, Dave couldn’t help blushing. They hadn’t known each other long.
“I don’t want to lie to you, Errol, but I’m not sure how much I can say. You know Joey Hart, from the climate talks at the pub. He’s asked us to help him out with something, and it’s classified.”
“Security measures were invented in the US, y’know. No need to apologise.” He grinned as he peeled three cans from the bag and popped them open.
“Still, it might make me change my planned script. I had intended to say goodbye or something similar. We’ve finished our engagement in Southport and are going our separate ways for a few months—some of the guys are doing some solo recording.
“Fact is, I’ve the sum of my worldly goods—or the only things that matter—on the back seat o’ my car, ’long with my horn. I’m at a loose end right now for the first time in years, and if Doctor Hart’s needs a gofer or an errand boy, I’d be dee-lighted to oblige.”
“I’ll need to make a call.”
The relief in Joey’s voice when Dave made the call was unmistakable. “If you’ll vouch for him, I don’t have a problem with that. In fact, my immediate boss has given me carte blanche to pick a team, and I recall Errol talked a lot of sense that evening in the Ship. He’s clearly an educated gent, and he can probably help us understand the American viewpoint. This is no longer a UK problem, Dave. It’s going global. I’ll fill you in when you get here.”
***
“There’s more gen arriving by the minute, but I’m getting the overall picture from a more accurate plotting of the timeline.”
Joey turned to the whiteboard that covered most of one wall in the lab.
“Chronologically, the first event in the chain was the volcano in Iceland at the beginning of October last year.”
“I remember that all the experts were more concerned with the ash, and the possibility it might cause plane crashes?” Brenda queried.
Joey nodded. “That’s right. And the underground rumblings were deep. They spread slowly and in several different directions. They didn’t affect any heavily populated regions and caused little damage, so they were recorded by some stations, but others were quite possibly missed if they were in remote, inaccessible areas.
“After a week or so, when the ash had settled and we hadn’t seen planes fall out of the skies or the seas run red, everyone relaxed and there seemed little point in any further investigation of the rumbles and tremors we’d logged. The next significant data we have is the flooding in Oz, immediately followed by the earthquakes in New Zealand, early December. As far as we can tell, there was no connection whatsoever with the volcano in Iceland.”
“Ey-ya-fyatla-yuh-kutl. Not an easy name, but I think that’s how it’s pronounced,” Errol offered.
“We’d better get used to how it rolls off the tongue,” Joey said wryly. “I’ve a feeling we’ll be using it quite a lot in our planning sessions.”
“Why d’you say that?” Brenda asked, sensing something in Joey’s voice that Dave and Errol had missed.
“This one’s hot off the presses,” Joey said, holding up an almost transparent flimsy. It took Dave a couple of seconds to recognise it for what it was.
“My God. Do people still use faxes?”
“Don’t knock it, Dave. Some of my colleagues in the boondocks can’t get a good wi-fi signal. They use landline and fax—I’ve heard rumours that some outlying stations in Africa still use carrier pigeons, but that’s probably an exaggeration.”
“Hmm. Okay. Now, what’s so vital about that piece of news you’re holding?”
“Simply this. Within the last twenty-four hours, there’s been more volcanic action on Iceland. Different location, but the name—Grimsvötn—is easier to pronounce.”
“Too far away to show any ripple effect in the UK, Joey?”
“Unlikely, at this distance. Even a strong quake hasn’t had time to show aftereffects yet. Why d’you ask, Dave?”
Dave had been watching the twenty-four-hour BBC screen as a filler activity while Joey was concentrating on the scientific data rolling in from a variety of sources.
“There’s a news item from Southport, which isn’t a million miles away.”
He turned up the volume for the benefit of the whole group. The person being interviewed was a middle-aged female who appeared to be spokesperson for a local conservation group.
“…and we’re concerned about the tremors which were felt in and around Southport last night. The whole process of fracking to release shale gas from the rock must weaken the coastline and will inevitably destroy the habitat and environment for a number of endangered species, not to mention the possibility of causing earthquakes and destruction of property.”
“Pure garbage,” Errol growled with a ferocity that surprised everyone. His usual, laid-back Southern drawl and easy slouch had disappeared. He quivered with repressed emotion as he strode to the TV monitor at the end of the room.
“They haven’t a clue what they’re talking about.” He pointed an accusing finger at the screen.
“How can you be so certain?” Joey demanded.
Errol turned his back on the TV and inhaled deeply, taking a few moments to compose himself before he addressed his friends in a calmer manner.
“I told you I was able to indulge myself in my music because I’m lucky enough to come from old money. My family was in the right place at the right time, and they made their money from oil.
“But that doesn’t mean I’ve lived an idle life. My father insisted I learn the ropes, something of the ins and outs of the oil business. I served my time for two years as a roughneck on the rigs in Arkansas and worked my way up purely on merit. I even worked under an assumed name to avoid any…” He faltered a moment, seeking the best word.
“Any special favours?” Brenda suggested. Errol flashed her a grateful glance.
“I love my father dearly,” he said with a sombre note in his voice, “but one day, I’ll inherit his chair in the boardroom, and I’ll make a better fist of it if I understand how the industry works. So I can tell you now, fracking, as they call it, is a relatively simple procedure. The technique has been used safely all over the world forever—or so it seems—and has never caused any problems for the environment. This news item is nothing more than sensationalist crap, deliberate scaremongering.”
“How does the process work, then?” Dave asked.
Errol acknowledged the question, grabbed a marker pen and swiftly sketched a diagram on the whiteboard.
“The depth of the drilling isn’t important, except for the numbers involved. The deeper you go, the higher the
pressure, but that’s not the point. In simple layman’s terms, a mix of chemicals is pumped down to the stratum being explored and forced into the rock under pressure. Other liquids are then pumped behind it, and the pressure is kept in place while the rock dissolves away.
“When the pressure is released, the paydirt—oil or gas—starts flowing back to the surface and is given a helping hand by mechanical pumps. Inevitably, there’s a limited amount of settling but never enough to cause any serious amount of subsidence or other environmental problems. I repeat. Fracturing is an essential and inherently safe process. It has never been the cause of any significant environmental damage.”
Errol looked around the room. The delivery of a semi-technical lecture had given him the chance to cool down, and he was no longer angry and agitated. “Any questions?”
There were none. Joey looked up from the notes he’d been making while Errol was talking.
“My figures seem to bear out what you’ve explained to us—and explained very well, I should add. I don’t pretend any expertise in engineering, but simple maths is something I can follow, and I’m happy to say the numbers all add up.”
He was about to carry on but was cut short by Brenda’s mobile. She glanced at the screen.
“Dave, it’s your brother.”
“Ringing from New Zealand?” With a puzzled frown, Dave fished out his own mobile.
“You need to switch those off,” Joey cautioned. “They interfere with the equipment.”
Dave grimaced apologetically and long-pressed the power button. “Sorry, Joey. But my brother wouldn’t call unless it was urgent.”
“Make it a quick one.”
Dave took the phone from Brenda. “Pete?” … “Yeah, okay, shoot.”
After a few moments, Dave shook his head.
“One moment, Pete. There are others present who’ll understand your technobabble better than me. I’m going to—”
“Get him to call back on this number.” Joey scribbled on his notepad and handed it to Dave, who hurriedly relayed the number and hung up. Moments later, the speakers emitted an electronic ping. Joey clicked his mouse and gestured for Dave to speak.
Taking the Heat Page 9
