27. Susan V. Lynch et al., “Effects of Early-Life Exposure to Allergens and Bacteria on Recurrent Wheeze and Atopy in Urban Children,” Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology 134, no. 3 (2014): 593–601.
28. E. M. Rees Clayton, M. Todd, J. B. Dowd, and A. Aiello, “The Impact of Bisphenol A and Triclosan on Immune Parameters in the U.S. Population, NHANES 2003–2006,” Environmental Health Perspectives 119, no. 3 (2011): 390–396.
29. Katri Korpela et al., “Intestinal Microbiome Is Related to Lifetime Antibiotic Use in Finnish Pre-School Children,” Nature Communications 7 (2016).
30. Eisenhower’s State of the Union Address. Retrieved from http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/primary-resources/eisenhower-state58/.
31. Andrew Spielman and Michael d’Antonio, Mosquito: The Story of Man’s Deadliest Foe (New York: Hyperion, 2002).
32. Rosemary Drisdelle, Parasites: Tales of Humanity’s Most Unwelcome Guests (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2010).
33. Richard G. A. Feachem et al., “Shrinking the Malaria Map: Progress and Prospects,” Lancet 376, no. 9752 (2010): 1566–1578.
34. Shallo Daba Hamusse, Taye T. Balcha, and Tefera Belachew, “The Impact of Indoor Residual Spraying on Malaria Incidence in East Shoa Zone, Ethiopia,” Global Health Action 5 (2012).
35. There is the related issue of low-quality drugs. Around 30 percent of the world’s public authorities have no drug regulation capacity or a capacity that barely functions. Gaurvika M. L. Nayyar et al., “Poor-Quality Antimalarial Drugs in Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa,” Lancet Infectious Diseases 12, no. 6 (2012): 488–496.
36. World Health Organization, Antimicrobial Resistance: Global Report on Surveillance, (Geneva: WHO, 2014) http://www.who.int/drugresistance/documents/surveillancereport/en/.
37. Dean T. Jamison et al. (eds.), Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006).
38. Rachel Nugent, Emma Back, and Alexandra Beith, The Race Against Drug Resistance (Washington, DC: Center for Global Development, 2010).
39. Fleming’s Nobel Prize acceptance speech. Retrieved from https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018/06/fleming-lecture.pdf.
40. CDC typhoid fever FAQ, http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dbmd/diseaseinfo/files/typhoid_fever_FAQ.pdf.
41. E. S. Anderson, “The Problem and Implications of Chloramphenicol Resistance in the Typhoid Bacillus,” Journal of Hygiene 74, no. 2 (1975): 289–299.
42. Michael L. Barnett and Jeffrey A. Linder, “Antibiotic Prescribing to Adults with Sore Throat in the United States, 1997–2010,” JAMA Internal Medicine 174, no. 1 (2014): 138–140.
43. The O’Niell Review, Safe, Secure and Controlled: Managing the Supply Chain of Antimicrobials. The Review on Antimicrobial Resistance Chaired by Jim O’Niell, November 2015, https://amr-review.org/Publications.html.
44. Christina Larson, “How China Tackled the Risky Over-Prescription of Antibiotics,” Businessweek, December 6, 2013, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-12-06/how-china-tackled-the-risky-overprescription-of-antibiotics.
45. Ganchimeg Togoobaatar et al., “Survey of Non-Prescribed Use of Antibiotics for Children in an Urban Community in Mongolia,” Bulletin of the World Health Organization 88, no. 12 (2010): 930–936.
46. Congressional testimony of Stuart Levy in 2010. Retrieved from http://www.tufts.edu/med/apua/policy/7.14.10.pdf.
47. FDA, Annual Summary Report on Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed in 2013 for Use in Food-Producing Animals, 2013. Retrieved from https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/news-events/cvm-updates.
48. Kimberly Elliott, Feeding the Future or Favoring American Farmers (Washington, DC: Brookings, 2016).
49. FDA National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System, 2011 Report. Retrieved from http://www.fda.gov/downloads/AnimalVeterinary/SafetyHealth/AntimicrobialResistance/NationalAntimicrobialResistanceMonitoringSystem/UCM334834.pdf.
50. FDA press release, “FDA Releases 2012 and 2013 NARMS Integrated Annual Report.” Retrieved from https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/news-events/cvm-updates.
51. James Gallagher, “Antibiotic Resistance: World on Cusp of ‘Post-Antibiotic Era,’ ” BBC News, November 19, 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/health-34857015.
52. Victoria Fan and Rifaiyat Mahbub, “US Move on Livestock Antibiotics Includes Possibly Fatal Loophole,” CGD blog, https://www.cgdev.org/blog/us-move-livestock-antibiotics-includes-possibly-fatal-loophole.
53. World Health Organization, Antimicrobial Resistance: Global Report on Surveillance (Geneva: World Health Organization, 2014).
54. Ryan McNeill, Deborah Nelson, and Yasmeen Abutaleb, “Suberbug Scourge Spreads as US Fails to Track Rising Human Toll,” Reuters.com, September 7, 2016.
55. Beth Mole, “MRSA: Farming Up Trouble,” Nature, July 24, 2013, http://www.nature.com/news/mrsa-farming-up-trouble-1.13427.
56. The Review on Antimicrobial Resistance, Antimicrobial Resistance: Tackling a Crisis (2014). Retrieved from https://amr-review.org/Publications.html.
57. Ibid.
58. CDC press brefing transcript from September 16, 2016, http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2013/t0916_health-threats.html.
59. Sara Cosgrove and Yehuda Carmeli, “The Impact of Antimicrobial Resistance on Health and Economic Outcomes,” Antimicribial Resistance 36 (2003): 1433.
60. The Review on Antimicrobial Resistance, Antimicrobial Resistance.
61. Burden of Disease data retrieved from http://www.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/gbd/visualizations/gbd-cause-patterns and WHO, Quantitative Risk Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Selected Causes of Death, 2030s and 2050s (Geneva: World Health Organization, 2014), http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/134014/1/9789241507691_eng.pdf.
62. The Global Terrorism Index 2014. Retrieved from http://www.visionofhumanity.org/sites/default/files/Global%20Terrorism%20Index%20Report%202014_0.pdf.
63. CDC, Antibiotic Threats in the United States, 2013, http://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/threat-report-2013/pdf/ar-threats-2013-508.pdf.
64. Plutarch, Lives of the Noble Greeks and Romans: Artaxerxes, http://www.bostonleadershipbuilders.com/plutarch/artaxerxes.htm.
65. Debora Mackenzie, “Renaissance Rulers Plotted Biowar with Hats,” New Scientist, November 25, 2015, https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22830494-400-17th-century-plot-to-use-plague-hats-as-bioweapons-revealed/.
66. Michael B. A. Oldstone, Viruses, Plagues, and History: Past, Present, and Future (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2009), p. 64.
67. Judith Miller, “When Germ Warfare Happened,” City Journal, Spring 2010, http://www.city-journal.org/2010/20_2_germ-warfare.html.
68. John Kelly, The Great Mortality: An Intimate History of the Black Death, the Most Devastating Plague of All Time (New York: HarperCollins, 2005), p. 36.
69. Drisdelle, Parasites.
70. N. Myhrvold, Strategic Terrorism: A Call to Action, Lawfare Research Paper Series 2, 2013.
71. Transcript of Colin Powell’s UN Presentation, February 5, 2003, available at https://www.cnn.com/2003/US/02/05/sprj.irq.powell.transcript/.
72. Myhrvold, Strategic Terrorism.
73. Steven Pinker, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress (New York: Viking, 2018), p. 307.
74. John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, Terror, Security, and Money: Balancing the Risks, Benefits, and Costs of Homeland Security (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2011).
Chapter Eleven: Flattening the Plague Cycle
1. Roy Porter, Disease, Medicine and Society in England, 1550–1860, vol. 3 (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1995), p. 56.
2. Dorothy Porter, Health, Civilization and the State: A History of Public Health from Ancient to Modern Times (Abingdon, UK: Routledge, 2005), p. 122.
3. UNAIDS press release “UNAIDS Report Shows that 19 Million of the 35 Million People Living with HIV Today Do Not Know That They Have the Virus,” July 2014, http://www.unaids.org/en
/resources/presscentre/pressreleaseandstatementarchive/2014/july/20140716prgapreport/.
4. Dean T. Jamison et al. (eds.), Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries (Washington, DC: World Bank Publications, 2006).
5. Dean T. Jamison et al., “Global Health 2035: A World Converging Within a Generation,” Lancet 382, no. 9908 (2013): 1898–1955.
6. See World Bank Service Delivery Indicators, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=service-delivery-indicators.
7. Randall M. Packard, A History of Global Health: Interventions into the Lives of Other Peoples (Baltimore: JHU Press, 2016).
8. Guy Hutton and M. Varughese, The Costs of Meeting the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal Targets on Drinking Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene, World Bank Water and Sanitation Department Technical Paper, 2016.
9. Gates Foundation website, “Gates Foundation Reinvent the Toilet Challenge Strategy Overview,” https://www.gatesfoundation.org/What-We-Do/Global-Development/Reinvent-the-Toilet-Challenge.
10. Paul Gertler et al., How Does Health Promotion Work? Evidence from the Dirty Business of Eliminating Open Defecation, no. w20997, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2015, and Dean Spears and Sneha Lamba, “Effects of Early-Life Exposure to Sanitation on Childhood Cognitive Skills: Evidence from India’s Total Sanitation Campaign,” Journal of Human Resources 51, no. 2 (2015).
11. Jenifer Ehreth, “The Global Value of Vaccination,” Vaccine 21, no. 7 (2003): 596–600.
12. Ann Nelson, “The Cost of Disease Eradication: Smallpox and Bovine Tuberculosis,” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 894, no. 1 (1999): 83–91.
13. Donald Henderson, “Eradication: Lessons from the Past,” MMWR, December 31, 1999, 48: 16–22, http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su48a6.htm.
14. Kimberly Elliott, Feeding the Future or Favoring American Farmers (Washington, DC: Brookings, 2016).
15. Eric Chatelain and Jean-Robert Ioset, “Drug Discovery and Development for Neglected Diseases: the DNDi Model,” Drug Design, Development and Therapy 5 (2011): 175.
16. Michael B. A. Oldstone, Viruses, Plagues, and History: Past, Present, and Future (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. 2009), p. 89.
17. Gavi press release, “GAVI Partners Fulfill Promise to Fight Pneumococcal Disease,” June 12, 2009, https://www.gavi.org/news/media-room/gavi-partners-fulfill-promise-fight-pneumococcal-disease.
18. Michael Specter, “Mosquitoes and NIMBYism,” New Yorker, July 11, 2012. Retrieved from https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/mosquitoes-and-nimbyism.
19. CDC press release, “Ebola Outbreak Is Nearing Possible End in Nigeria and Senegal,” September 30, 2014, from http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/p0930-nigeria-ebola.html.
20. Miles Ott, Shelly F. Shaw, Richard N. Danila, and Ruth Lynfield, “Lessons Learned from the 1918–1919 Influenza Pandemic in Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota,” Public Health Reports 122, no. 6 (2007): 803–810.
21. Derek Thompson, “What’s Behind South Korea’s COVID-19 Exceptionalism?” Atlantic, May 6, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/whats-south-koreas-secret/611215/.
22. Robert Barro, Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Mortality in U.S. Cities During the Great Influenza Pandemic, 1918–1919, no. w27049, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2020.
23. Ibid.
24. Sheldon J. Watts, Epidemics and History: Disease, Power and Imperialism (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1999), p. 200.
25. Jo Nelson Hays, The Burdens of Disease: Epidemics and Human Response in Western History (New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 2009), p. 200.
26. The WTO’s Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement allows signatories to adopt measures to exceed international standards so long as the measures are backed by scientific evidence.
27. Associated Press, “Cheng Satter Emails: UN Health Agency Resisted Declaring Ebola Emergency,” AP Newswire, March 20, 2015. Retrieved from http://time.com/3752822/who-ebola-outbreak-emergency/.
28. WHO Statement on the 1st Meeting of the IHR Emergency Committee on the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa, http://who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2014/ebola-20140808/en/.
29. Rachel Glennerster, “How Bad Data Fed the Ebola Epidemic,” New York Times, January 31, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/opinion/how-bad-data-fed-the-ebola-epidemic.html.
30. Charles Kenny, “The WHO Isn’t Perfect, but It Needs More Money and Power, Not Less,” Technology Review, April 15, 2020, https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/15/999085/who-trump-funding-cut-bad/.
31. Daniel Bressler and Chris Bakerlee, “Designer Bugs,” Vox, December 6, 2018, https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2018/12/6/18127430/superbugs-biotech-pathogens-biorisk-pandemic.
32. Patrick Wintour, “US Stays Away as World Leaders Agree Action on Covid-19 Vaccine,” Guardian, April 24, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/us-stays-away-as-world-leaders-agree-action-on-covid-19-vaccine.
Chapter Twelve: Conclusion: Humanity’s Greatest Victory
1. David Adam, “Special Report: The Simulations Driving the World’s Response to COVID-19,” Nature, February 20, 2020, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6.
2. Victoria Hansen, Eyal Oren, Leslie K. Dennis, and Heidi E. Brown, “Infectious Disease Mortality Trends in the United States, 1980–2014,” JAMA 316, no. 20 (2016): 2149–2151.
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