by Hyougetsu
“Yields have been steadily dropping over the years, I see.”
“Precisely. As expected, you noticed right away, Lord Veight.”
I was just lucky enough to have had a job in my past life that dealt with spreadsheets like this. Had this been my first time seeing such a detailed chart, my brain would have shut down. Over the past hundred years, North Rolmund’s yields for their staple grains had fallen 20%. That was a significant drop. Prince Ivan scrutinized my expression for a few seconds. Gauging my reaction, he carefully chose each of his next words.
“North Rolmund’s agricultural capacity is declining. Though the decline is slow, it has long-term implications.”
“Indeed, this isn’t something you would notice over just a ten-year period. I’m impressed you managed to discover the decline at all.”
“It slipped past me at first, but on a whim, I decided to check old tax reports from my great-grandfather’s time. That made the situation painfully obvious.” Prince Ivan’s expression grew darker as he spoke. “However, the real problem is that no one is taking my claims seriously.”
“Why not? Even an idiot could figure it out after looking at these records.”
I knew nothing about farming and even I knew this was a bad sign. But Prince Ivan shook his head.
“Aside from my father, my brother, and Ashley, you’re the only one to realize the gravity of this revelation. None of the other North Rolmund lords understand the danger we’re in.”
Most nobles managed their lands for around 30 or so years, then passed the torch onto their children. After that they spent maybe 10 years advising their successors, making for a total of 40 years spent working in land management. Incidentally, the rate of decline was a tiny 0.2%, so during years with a good harvest, lords were able to reap tax revenues much greater than the previous years still. After all, during the entirety of their reign, they’d only see an 8% drop in total yields. However, no one was able to keep 40 years of harvests in their memory, so most lords would probably not even notice the drop. Even if they did, they’d probably just chalk it up to the old days being better or something. But here was irrevocable proof that the numbers were indeed dropping. It was obvious that at the rate North Rolmund was going, it would be uninhabitable in another few centuries.
“I’ve warned the nearby lords of this. But they all think it’s not a problem because their generation will be fine,” Prince Ivan spat dismissively.
“It’s true that you might be able to keep going for a century or two.”
This wasn’t something that would immediately affect the nation, and I had nothing to do with this country anyway. But Prince Ivan shook his head.
“It certainly is true that our generation may be fine. And perhaps even our children’s generation. But what about our grandchildren?”
Prince Ivan’s entreaty piqued my interest, and I pulled a handkerchief out of my pocket.
“Excuse me.”
I placed the handkerchief on the railing in front of Prince Ivan and took out a pen.
“Lord Veight, what are you doing?”
“Let’s chart this on a graph. The vertical axis is yields, and the horizontal axis is time. Now if we plot the yields over the past few decades...”
I made a rough line graph using the data points from the book.
“This can’t be...”
The situation was even worse than the book estimated. Holy crap. The drop in yields was increasing at an exponential rate. Prince Ivan was able to easily analyze what the graph predicted too.
“I see. If we extend this graph, it’s easy to see what yields will look like in another hundred years. As I thought, the situation is dire.”
Naturally, not all of a plot’s yields went to the lord that owned it. Some needed to be saved for next season’s planting, and naturally enough needed to be given to the serfs to keep them alive. It was the rest which became the lord’s tax revenue. But the graph predicted that in a few decades, yields wouldn’t even be high enough to support the serf population of the area. There was already barely any extra for the lords to collect as taxes. Prince Ivan stared at the handkerchief for a long time before muttering, “If we wait any longer, we won’t be able to set up countermeasures in time. We can’t leave this problem to my son’s or my grandson’s generation. My father and I have to do something now. Yet I can’t think of any solution that would work in the long term.”
I gave the problem some thought. The Doneiks family might be Eleora’s political rivals, but the people of North Rolmund hadn’t done anything wrong. Furthermore, the more Rolmund’s own lands declined, the more the empire would covet Meraldia’s fertile soil. That was the last thing I wanted. In the end, I could think of only one reason why this was happening.
“Maybe the land is losing its fertility because you keep planting the same crops over and over?”
But Prince Ivan shook his head sadly.
“If that was the case, it wouldn’t be happening to all of our crops evenly. Besides, we have already instituted a system of crop rotation. We even tried a completely different rotation system for a few years to see if that would change things, but the decline continued.”
Crop rotation required the right variety of crops to work. You couldn’t just slap together any old combination and expect it to replenish the soil. If they’d already had a crop rotation system in place for a long time, it was likely there wasn’t any better combination.
“Your crops haven’t been affected by disease or pests?”
“I don’t believe so. At the very least the crops I’ve examined have all been healthy.”
“Is it a problem with the fertilizer you use?”
“I’m not sure. We’ve tried different manure options, but in the end, the ones farmers have been using for centuries worked the best.”
I’m out of ideas. No wonder Prince Ivan is having such a hard time with this problem. I thought this would be a good opportunity to put the Doneiks family in my debt, but I couldn’t think of any possible solution. This was something that needed an expert opinion.
“I’m truly sorry I couldn’t be of any help.”
Prince Ivan’s expression softened a little.
“Don’t be. You’re different from the others. Even though this has nothing to do with your own lands, you still tried to help. Thank you. Besides, you gave me some valuable insight on the scale of the long-term consequences.”
I did?
“Incidentally, Lord Veight, are you a follower of the Sonnenlicht Order?”
“Yes, of course.”
That was a lie. But since the Meraldian Sonnenlicht Order had ordained me as a saint, I doubted anyone would question my story. Prince Ivan sighed.
“In the past, the empire aggressively spread the Sonnenlicht religion, using it as a means of controlling the citizens. But as a result, our people have stopped thinking for themselves.”
In Rolmund, religion had been weaponized as a way of cementing the empire’s rule. But that method had drawbacks.
“They think everything is the will of God, so they’ve stopped trying to find solutions to problems?”
“Exactly. Even if there’s a string of bad harvests, the people think so long as they remain pious that Sonnenlicht will save them. The serfs especially are...”
“They don’t do anything except for what they’re told?”
“That’s right. Though I suppose I have no right to complain, since it’s my ancestors who conditioned them to be like this.”
Prince Ivan sighed again. To be honest, it was inevitable that the serfs would grow apathetic. After all, it wasn’t their land or their wheat. While I was sympathetic to Prince Ivan’s plight, there wasn’t really anything I could do. Just then, Kite came over to me, still surrounded by a group of noble ladies.
“I’m terribly sorry, but Lord Veight’s personal information needs to be kept confidential for diplomatic reasons so... No really, I can’t tell you. Excuse me.”
My trusted v
ice-commander shook off the ladies and turned to me. Thank God you’re back. I have no idea who anyone is without you. His arrival gave me a convenient excuse to leave, so I bowed to Prince Ivan and said, “I’ll be taking my leave then, Your Highness. Hopefully we have the opportunity to speak again.”
“Yes, I would very much like to speak with you at length.”
We went through the usual pleasantries, then parted ways. I wanted to talk to him again, but bringing an expert along to get their opinion on the agricultural situation.
As I was walking away, Ryuunie spotted me and ran over. It appeared he’d been watching and waiting for a chance to come back.
“Lord Veight, are you done talking with my dad?”
“I am indeed. Your father is a wonderful man.”
I meant that. After talking with him, I’d come to realize that Prince Ivan wasn’t someone who was motivated by personal greed. I bowed to Ryuunie with a smile.
“Would you like to hear more stories of the battlefield?”
His eyes lit up instantly.
“You don’t mind!? Oh, thank you so much! Uncle, Lord Veight says he’ll tell us more about his battles!”
Thanks to Ryuunie’s shouting, many of the other guests also came over to see what was going on.
“Oooh, I’ve always wanted to hear about the Astral Fencer’s battlefield days.”
“Let’s listen, dear. You won’t get many opportunities to hear about his exploits.”
“You’re right. I’m sure they’ll make for great stories to tell our children too.”
With a crowd this big, I was starting to get a little nervous. Honestly, public speaking scared me more than fighting. In the end, I was forced to entertain a large crowd of nobles until the party finished. Personally, I would have preferred to spend the rest of the party eating as much meat as I could. But when I saw Ryuunie’s excitement, I couldn’t bring myself to disappoint him. I guess if my stories made people happy, it was worth missing out on the food...
Winter finally came to Schwerin, the imperial capital. Because of how heavy the snowfall in winter was, nobles had to decide where they would spend each winter. If they stayed in their own land, they’d miss out on all the meetings and events in the capital. But if they stayed in the capital, they wouldn’t be able to manage their lands. The snowfall made travel impossible, so they had to choose before winter set in.
“I’ve left managing my lands to my mother and younger sister, so I don’t have to worry. The emperor charged me with guarding the border anyway, so I’ve spent most of my winters in Fort Novesk.”
We were all sitting in the room with Jerrick’s remodeled fireplace. We werewolves sat by the warm fire while we listened to Eleora. Like before, Eleora had used chestnut logs for the fire to make sure it crackled nicely. She seemed quite taken with the sound.
We’d just finished lunch, and we were discussing our future plans. Or rather, Jerrick and the other werewolves were lounging on sofas while Lacy and the other mages were poring over Rolmund magic texts. They all seemed to be thinking if they handed all the work off to me, I’d figure something out. To be fair, I would, but that didn’t mean I had to like it. I turned back to Eleora, and she gave me a troubled smile.
“Lord Kastoniev is planning on spending the winter here in the capital too. He really is an overprotective uncle.”
I’m pretty sure anyone would become overprotective if they had such a reckless niece. I smiled, but then returned to looking serious as I remembered something.
“By the way Eleora, how much do you know about agriculture? I used to grow potatoes and stuff in my village, but I’m not an expert by any means.”
Eleora shook her head.
“I’ve never dabbled in farming. Since I’ve left my younger sister in charge of my lands, I have basically no experience at all.”
Eleora was a scholar of magical engineering, not agriculture. Just then, Lacy looked up from her book and butt in.
“Is farming really that difficult? I thought all you had to do was put down fertilizer and water plants?”
That just proves you’re an amateur. I mean, I am too.
“It takes time for bacteria to break down the compost and... Err, I mean it takes time for the fertilizer to settle. Especially in cold areas, you have to wait a while before the fertilizer is truly part of the soil. And if you over-fertilize the soil, you’ll end up killing your crops instead.”
“Huh...”
From what I’d heard back on Earth, farmers in Hokkaido needed to use three times as much fertilizer as those in Okinawa, because fertilizer took that much longer to settle in cold areas. I had no doubt Rolmund’s serfs had a hard time cultivating this land. Lacy bashfully hid her face behind her book.
“I apologize for being so ignorant.”
“There’s no need to feel sorry. I’m not really much of a farmer myself.”
Lacy might have been one of the demon army’s best mages, but farming was outside her area of expertise.
Guess my only choice is to study up myself. I took out the handkerchief I’d written on during the party. The graph I’d drawn was still there. I hadn’t been thinking about it at the time, but this was a pretty good record of North Rolmund’s agricultural situation. I guess we’d been so engrossed in our discussion that Prince Ivan had forgotten to mention it. Or perhaps he hadn’t forgotten, but rather had wanted me to take it back. Eleora glanced at the handkerchief and frowned.
“What is that, Lord Veight?”
“A graph of North Rolmund’s agricultural yields over the years. This axis is time, and this axis is yields.”
Her interest piqued, Eleora examined the handkerchief more carefully.
“I see, you plotted the change in yields over time to make it easier to visualize. Meraldian mathematics is quite advanced.”
I shook my head.
“No, it’s only the demon army who uses stuff like this. It’s not a military secret or anything, but most people in Meraldia wouldn’t understand the graph if you showed it to them.”
The previous Demon Lord had taught his dragonkin clan members about graphing, and now every technical engineer in the army used it. I wasn’t very good at math, so personally I needed a visual like this to really understand things. Thanks so much for everything, Demon Lord. That being said, you needed at least some understanding of math to be able to read a graph at all, so the practice hadn’t spread to the common folk in Meraldia. Now that I thought about it, the basic education I had back in Japan was probably pretty advanced for a world like this. If only I’d paid more attention to it at the time. While I was reminiscing about my time on Earth, Eleora copied the graph into her own notebook. Once she’d finished, she nodded in satisfaction to herself.
“I see, this is a useful tactic. I should use it in my own thesis. It’ll also make for a simple way to map the Blast Canes’ effectiveness.”
Come to think of it, Prince Ivan had recognized what I was doing too. Rolmundian nobility had a pretty high standard of education it seemed. Or perhaps they were just really fast learners. Basic math was needed for a lot of fields, so it was important to learn.
People like Eleora were probably exceptional, but it seemed a significant number of Rolmundian nobles were given a comprehensive education. If the empire managed to modernize, they’d be a real threat. I needed to make sure Meraldia didn’t fall behind. Eleora cocked her head quizzically as she analyzed the graph.
“According to this diagram, the decline in yields is accelerating.”
“Yeah, it is.”
The downward slope of the graph spiked significantly at around the 30 years ago mark. I’d been too focused on other things at the time to notice, but now that Eleora had pointed it out, it was hard to ignore. Eleora stroked her chin for a few seconds, then suddenly said, “That was when Lord Doneiks’ irrigation project began. His flood control measures have helped a lot of people living on his land.”
“But it’s possible the flood barriers he c
reated did something to the river basin.”
Water supply had a huge impact on farming. Messing with the flow of rivers also had a huge impact on the surrounding ecology. Considering the level of technology in this world, it was entirely possible Lord Doneiks’ flood management solution had harmed the nearby ecosystem. The people of this world had no way of knowing that tampering with water systems could affect other things. That being said, I wasn’t exactly a master of this world’s ecology, so I wasn’t informed enough to say anything. Eleora shook her head sadly.
“If we had a specialist who understood rivers, we could consult them, but unfortunately there’s no such person in my faction. Do you know anyone?”
“Unfortunately not. The dragonkin engineers might know, but I can hardly go back and get them.”
I hadn’t thought to bring an earth science specialist with me. Kite knew a little bit, but it wasn’t his area of study either. Almost all the rivers in Rolmund flowed northward, since their sources generally came from the Northern Peaks which served as the Rolmund-Meraldia border.
Lord Doneiks had done a few major things to alter the river’s flow, so we had no way of knowing which specific project was the cause. Crops were part of the local ecosystem, so they were quite sensitive to changes in the flow and quality of water. Back on Earth, I remembered reading a news article about how two beavers had managed to completely transform a downstream ecosystem by building a dam. The dam had acted as a filter, purifying the water as it passed downstream.
If we included water quality as one of the possible causes, then there were too many potential factors for us to investigate. After thinking about the problem for a few seconds I said, “We need to investigate this more thoroughly. This is a national crisis.”
“But North Rolmund is under Lord Doneiks’ jurisdiction. Not even the emperor can order an investigation into his territory just like that.”
God, what a pain.
“Fine. I’ll go talk to Lord Doneiks... Actually, I’ll talk to Prince Ivan.”
“Are you sure?”
Eleora gave me a surprised look. I smiled and said, “We might as well ease Prince Ivan’s worries, right?”
