Moneyball

by Lewis, Michael

  But there is another, less objective Billy Beane. And in the top of the fourth inning, when Miguel Tejada drops a routine, inning-ending double-play throw from second baseman Mark Ellis, the other Billy Beane awakens from his slumber. Even as the Royals score five runs they shouldn’t have, Billy remains calm—after all, it’s still 11-5, and Tim Hudson is still pitching—but he’s on alert. He begins to talk about his players in a different way. And he allows me to see that the science experiment is messier than the chief scientist usually is willing to admit.

  In the Oakland fourth, center fielder Terrence Long hits a grounder back to the pitcher, and runs hard down the first-base line. This is new. Heretofore, when Terrence Long has grounded out, he has trotted down the line with supreme indifference to public opinion. Too young to know that you are what you pretend to be, Terrence Long has nearly perfected the art of seeming not to care. As it happens, a few days ago, Terrence walked out into the players’ parking lot and discovered that someone had egged his car. Hearing of the incident, Billy stopped by Terrence’s locker and told him that he’d had an e-mail from the culprit, an A’s fan, who said he was furious that he’d paid money to watch Terrence Long jog the bases. The effect on Terrence Long was immediate. He went from jogging to first on a routine ground out to running as fast as he can until the first moment he can stop without pissing off Billy Beane. As he sprints down the line, Billy says that Terrence’s real problem is “his own self-doubt, exacerbated by the media. That’s one of the mistakes that young players make—they actually read the papers.”

  In the Oakland fifth, with the score still 11-5, Ramon Hernandez leads off. Twice in the first four innings the Oakland catcher has taken outside fastballs and driven doubles to the opposite field. This is new. All season long Ramon Hernandez has been trying and failing to pull outside fastballs. He’s been a complete bust on offense, and failed to conform to the Oakland A’s front office’s greater expectations of him. As it happens, the other day, Billy stopped by Ramon Hernandez’s locker and made a bet with him: each time he went the opposite way with an outside pitch, Billy would pay him fifty bucks; each time he tried to pull an outside pitch, he’d pay Billy fifty bucks. The point of the exercise, Billy now says, is “it gives me an excuse to henpeck Ramon. It’s a subversive way for me to keep nagging the shit out of him without him knowing it.”

  Most of the players who pass across the television screen on this historic evening have been on the receiving end of Billy Beane’s subtle attempts to manipulate their behavior. He claims there is no point in trying to change people, and then he goes ahead and tries to change them anyway. He knows most of his players better than he would ever allow himself to be known by them, and while that is not saying very much, it’s still says something. “Look at Miggy’s face,” he says, at the end of the sixth inning. The television camera is on Tejada, in the dugout, looking surprisingly glum. “He’s the only guy in the lineup without a hit. This is what happens with younger players: they want to do too much. Watch him: he’ll try to do more than he should.” And sure enough, after Tim Hudson gets into trouble, and Chad Bradford is called in from the bullpen, he does.

  * * *

  When Chad Bradford is in the bullpen, he often thinks about his father. It helps put whatever pressure he’s feeling into perspective. The doctors had told his father he’d never walk again and the man had not only walked, he’d worked, and not only worked, but played catch. If his father could do that, how hard was this?

  The thought usually made him feel better, but tonight, with so much on the line, it doesn’t. He’s feeling like a different pitcher than he was just a few weeks ago. Before the trouble started, he’d been exactly as effective as Paul DePodesta’s computer had predicted he would be. For nearly two full seasons he’s been living his dream. Chad himself had not quite believed it when, before the 2001 season, just after his back surgery, Billy Beane called him to tell him that he had traded for him with a view to his becoming the critical middle reliever in the Oakland A’s big league bullpen. Billy told Chad the statistics he thought he was capable of generating, and even Chad thought they were a stretch. Amazingly, to Chad, he’d done almost exactly what Billy Beane predicted he would do. “It’s like the guy knows what’s going to happen before it happens,” said Chad.

  Now he’s unsure that Billy Beane’s faith in him is justified. He pulls his cap down over his eyes and walks briskly toward the mound, reaching it in exactly the same number of steps he always does. Outside, everything looked the same; inside, everything felt different. A few weeks ago, when he looked in to take the signal from the catcher, he was oblivious to his surroundings. He’d be repeating to himself his usual phrase, to shut down his mind to the pressure.

  Make your pitch.

  Make your pitch.

  Make your pitch.

  Tonight, he wasn’t oblivious; tonight, as he leaned in, he was aware of everything. The crowd noise. The signs. The national audience. And a new mantra, now running through his head:

  Don’t Fuck This Up!

  Don’t Fuck This Up!

  Don’t Fuck This Up!

  He’s having the worst slump in his entire professional career and while it isn’t actually all that bad a slump—one bad outing in Yankee Stadium, another in Fenway Park—he has no ability to put it into perspective. On his bookshelf at home there were two books, side by side, tattered by his constant use of them. One was The Mental Game of Baseball. The other was the Bible. He has a favorite passage, Philippians 4:13: I can do all things through Christ who strengthens me. It’s giving him no solace. A few nights before, after another nerve-wracking outing, he’d called his wife, Jenny, who had taken the kids back to Byram for the start of the school year, and said, “I don’t think I can do this anymore.”

  The Oakland A’s pitching coach, Rick Peterson, thinks that Chad’s problems began in early August, when ESPN announcer Jeff Brantley had come into Oakland and done a piece on him, identifying Chad on national television as one of the premier setup men in the game. Attention disturbed Chad’s concentration. Peterson had been critical to Oakland’s pitching success. He kept the Oakland pitchers healthy; and, in some cases, he also kept them focused. He was fond of saying that “if you have twelve different pitchers, you’ve got to speak twelve different languages.” The difference between Chad and the other pitchers was that the others’ language had words for the phrase “I belong in the big leagues.” Chad’s language lacked the vocabulary of personal defiance. Of self-confidence. Throughout his career, Chad had responded to trouble not by looking inside himself to see what was there, but by dropping his point of release lower to the ground. His knuckles now scrape the dirt when he throws. “He’s got nowhere to go,” said Peterson, “unless he throws upside down.”

  His pitching coach is trying to teach Chad how to go inside. After one of his weak outings, when he was looking lost, Peterson had made him sit down and watch tape of himself slicing and dicing big league hitters for the first five months of the season. As Chad watched the tape of his old self, Peterson made his point.

  “You’re a Christian, right, Chad?”

  “Yeah.”

  “You believe in Jesus?”

  “Yeah.”

  “Have you ever seen him?”

  “No, I’ve never seen him.”

  “Ever seen yourself get hitters out?”

  “Yeah.”

  “So why the fuck do you have faith in Jesus when you never seen him, but you don’t have faith in your ability to get hitters out when you get hitters out all the time?”

  His coach left him with that thought. Chad sat there and said to himself: “Okay. That makes sense.” But a little while later the doubts returned. For his entire career hardly anyone has believed in him and now that they do, he can’t quite believe in himself. “It’s my greatest weakness,” he said. “I have zero self-confidence. The only way I can explain it is that I’m not the guy who throws ninety-five miles an hour.
The guy who throws ninety-five can always see his talent. But I don’t have that. My stuff depends on deception. For it to work, there’s so much that has to go right. When it starts not going right, I think, ‘Oh my gosh, I hope I can keep foolin’ em.’ Then I start to ask, ‘How much longer can I keep foolin em?’”

  He’s having—with him, there isn’t a more accurate way to put it—a crisis of faith. When he knows, he always hits his spots; when he hopes, he never does; and he’s now just hoping. Oblivious to how good he is, he is susceptible to the argument that his success is a trick, or a fluke, or a spell that at any moment might break. He doesn’t much care that he is, for the first time in his miraculous career, the only one still making this argument.

  That night in early September he’s fighting himself more fiercely than ever before. Billy Beane knows it. His cheap out-getting machine has a programming glitch. He has no idea how to fix it—how to get inside Chad Bradford’s head. Sloth, indolence, a lack of discipline, an insufficient fear of management—these problems Billy knows how to attack. Insecurity is beyond him. If he knew how to solve the problem, he might be finishing up his playing career and preparing himself for election to the Hall of Fame. But he still doesn’t know; and it worries him. Chad doesn’t know that he will retire batters at such a predictable rate, in such a predictable way, that he might as well be a robot. As a result, he might not do it.

  * * *

  Billy Beane only watches all of what happens next because he’s somehow allowed himself to be trapped into watching the game with me. What happens next is that Chad Bradford shows the world how quickly a big lead in baseball can be lost. He gets the final out in the seventh inning, on a ground ball. The eighth inning is the problem. Art Howe allows Chad to return to the mound to face a series of left-handed hitters.

  “I’m glad Art’s leaving him in,” says Billy. “He’s wasted if you only use him to get an out.”

  I ask if it worries him that Chad relies so heavily on faith. That Chad’s genuine, understandable belief that the Good Lord must be responsible for his fantastic ability to get big league hitters out leaves him open to the suspicion that the Good Lord might have changed His mind.

  “No,” says Billy. “I’m a believer, too. I just happen to believe in the power of the ground ball.”

  In nearly seventy relief appearances this year Chad Bradford has walked exactly ten batters, about one every thirty he has faced. He opens the eighth inning by walking Brent Mayne.

  As Mayne trots down to first base, the Oakland crowd stirs and hollers. Someone from the center field bleachers hurls a roll of toilet paper onto the field. It takes a minute to clear, leaving Chad time with his hellish thoughts. When play resumes, fifty-five thousand people rise up and bang and shout, perhaps thinking this will help Chad to settle down.

  “Why should noise have any more effect on the hitter than the pitcher?” says Billy, a bit testily. “If you’re playing away, you just pretend they are cheering for you.”

  Chad walks the second hitter, Dee Brown. It’s the first time all year he’s walked two batters in a row. The TV cameras pan to Miguel Tejada and second baseman Mark Ellis, conferring behind their gloves.

  “In the last ten years guys started covering their lips with their gloves,” snaps Billy. “I’ve never known a single lip-reader in baseball. What, has there been a rash of lip-reading I don’t know about?”

  The third batter, Neifi Perez, hits a slow ground ball to the second baseman. John Mabry, playing first, races across and cuts it off. Chad just stands on the mound and watches the play develop. By the time it has, it’s too late for him to cover first base. The bases are now loaded, with nobody out. Another roll of toilet paper streams from the bleachers into center field. The crowd is on its feet, making more noise than ever, still thinking, Lord knows why, that their attention is what Chad Bradford needs to get him through his troubles.

  Billy stares at the television with disgust, like a theatre critic being forced to watch a mangled interpretation of Hamlet. “I can’t believe I have to sit here and watch this shit,” he says. He pulls his little white box onto the desk in front of him. Its plastic shine has been rubbed dull. “I would be dying right now if I was walking around watching this,” he says. He’s fantasizing: if I hadn’t trapped him with the TV inside this office he would be out in the parking lot, marching around glancing every five seconds at the white box. He’d rather be dying out there than whatever he’s doing in here.

  The next batter, Luis Ordaz, is the one who makes good on Billy’s prediction about Miguel Tejada (“Watch him: he’ll try to do more than he should”). Ordaz hits a routine ground ball to Tejada’s right. Instead of making the routine play, the force at third, Tejada tries to make the acrobatic one, the force at home. His leaping throw bounces in the dirt in front of Ramon Hernandez and all runners are safe: 11-6. Bases still loaded, nobody yet out.

  Art Howe virtually leaps out of the dugout to yank Chad from the game. On his way to his seat on the bench Chad stares at the ground, and works to remain expressionless. He came in with a six-run lead. He leaves with the tying run in the on-deck circle. The ball never left the infield.

  “Jesus Christ, what a fucking embarrassment,” says Billy. He reaches under the desk and extracts a canister of Copenhagen. He jams the chaw into his upper lip. “Why am I even watching this shit?”

  The new pitcher, Ricardo Rincon, gets two quick outs, and gives up just one run on a sacrifice fly: 11-7. With two outs and runners on first and third, Art Howe walks out yet again. This time he calls for right-hander Jeff Tam, newly arrived from Triple-A, to face the right-handed Mike Sweeney, who is, at the moment, leading the American League in hitting.

  “Fuck,” says Billy. “Why? They all take this lefty-righty shit too far. What’s wrong with leaving Rincon in?”

  Tam had two years in the A’s bullpen where he played the role now played by Chad Bradford. There was a time when Ron Washington, the infield coach, took to calling Tam “Toilet Paper” (“Because he’s always cleanin’ up everybody else’s shit”). But something happened, either in Tam’s head or his delivery, and for the past two years he hasn’t been the same guy. “Relievers are like volatile stocks,” Billy says. “They’re the one asset you need to watch closely, and trade for quick profits.”

  As his manager and reliever confer, Billy Beane looks at me apologetically. In under forty-five minutes he’s passed from detachment to interest, from interest to irritation, from irritation to anger, and is now, obviously, on the brink of rage. He’s embarrassed by his emotions but not enough to control them. “All right,” he finally says, “you’ll have to excuse me, I’m going to have to pace around here.”

  With that, he walks out into the clubhouse, closing the door behind him, and begins to storm around. Past the trainer’s room where poor Tim Hudson, who must be wondering what he needs to do to get a win, is having heat applied to his shoulder. Past Scott Hatteberg and Greg Myers, the two lefties on the bench who had thought they had the night off, rushing back through the clubhouse to the batting cage to take some practice swings, in case they are asked to pinch-hit. And, finally, past the video room where Paul DePodesta stews on the improbability of the evening. Paul already has calculated the odds of winning twenty games in a row. (He puts them at fourteen in a million.) Now he’s calculating the odds of losing an eleven-run lead. (“It may not be fourteen in a million but it’s close.”)

  In his 1983 Abstract, Bill James had contemplated tonight’s game. James had observed in baseball what he called a “law of competitive balance.” “There exists in the world a negative momentum,” he wrote,

  which acts constantly to reduce the differences between strong teams and weak teams, teams which are ahead and teams which are behind, or good players and poor players. The corollaries are:

  Every form of strength covers one weakness and creates another, and therefore every form of strength is also a form of weakness and every weakness
a strength.

  The balance of strategies always favors the team which is behind.

  Psychology tends to pull the winners down and push the losers upwards.

  More metaphysics than physics, it was as true of people as it was of baseball teams. People who want very badly to win, and to be seen to have won, enjoy a tactical advantage over people who don’t. That very desire, tantamount to a need, is also a weakness. In Billy Beane, the trait is so pronounced that it is not merely a weakness. It is a curse.

  When play resumes, Jeff Tam and Mike Sweeney fight a great battle. On the tenth pitch of the at bat, after fouling off four pitches with Superman swings, Sweeney takes a slider from Tam and golfs it off the 1-800-BAR-NONE sign, just over the left field wall.

  11-10.

  Something big crashes in the clubhouse.

  On the TV over Art Howe’s desk, Art himself is again on his way to the mound, to replace Jeff Tam with a lefty named Micah Bowie. Mike Sweeney enthusiastically explains to his teammates in the Kansas City dugout how he thought his home run was a foul ball. The announcers say what a pity it is that Miguel Tejada “tried to do too much” with the routine ground ball to third. Had he not, the A’s would be out of the inning. Billy bursts back in the room-cheeks red, teeth black. “Fucking Tam,” he says. “He thinks he’s going to fool the best hitter in the league with his slider.” He mutes the television, grabs his tin of Copenhagen, and vanishes, leaving me to watch the game alone in his manager’s office.

  The manager’s office is now completely silent. The fifty-five thousand people outside are making about as much noise as fifty-five thousand people can make, but none of it reaches this benighted place. Pity Art Howe. What little he has done to make the office a home suggests a view of the world so different from Billy Beane’s that it’s a wonder he’s kept his job as long as he has. There’s a framed aphorism, called “The Optimist’s Creed.” There is a plaque containing the wisdom of Vince Lombardi. There is an empty coffee pot, with a canister of non-dairy creamer. Behind the manager’s white Formica desk is a sign that says Thank You For Not Smoking. There are photos that hint at a fealty to baseball’s mystique: one of Art standing on the dugout steps, another of Art and Cal Ripken, Jr. (signed by Ripken). On the television, Art maintains his stoical expression. Beneath him flashes the news that no Athletics team has lost an eleven-run lead since the Philadelphia A’s lost one to the St. Louis Browns in 1936. Baseball has so much history and tradition. You can respect it, or you can exploit it for profit, but it’s still being made all over the place, all the time.