Expert Political Judgment
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Lewinsky, Monica, 131, 215
Lewis, D., 18n. 33
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP / Japan), 110, 111, 267
liberals, xiv, xiv n. 7, xv, xv n. 12, 150–51, 152, 158–59, 257
Lithuania, 95
logical-coherence, 190, 190n. 1; and process indicators of good judgment, 301–2; test, 122–23
Lord, C., 128n. 8
Lynch, Peter, 33
Macey, David, 225
Machiavelli, 26
MacIntyre, A., 3n. 4
macroeconomic policies, in Latin America, 114–15
Malkiel, Burton, 33
Mandela, Nelson, 109
marketplace of ideas metaphor, 231–33, 231n. 12
Markman, K., 199n. 15
Matlock, J., 6n. 8
“matrioshka nationalisms,” 71
May, E., 38n. 33, 143n. 23
Mbeki, Thabo, 225
McCloskey, D., 30–31, 32
McCullough, D., 5n. 6
McGuire, William, 138n. 16, 182–83n. 16
Medawar, P., xii n. 1
Meehl, P., 54n. 48
meliorism, 19, 20, 60, 67, 76; hypotheses of, 20–21; skeptical, 21, 64–66
meta-cognition (and the art of self-overhearing), 23, 213–15
Mexico, 114, 115
Mill, John Stuart, 231–32
misses, 11. See also value adjustments (of probability scores)
moderation-extremism, 69, 72–73; foxes’ tendency to moderation, and hedgehogs to extremism, 79–81, 84–86, 88. See also ideologue hypothesis
modus tollens, 180
Mokr, Joel, 29n. 12, 31
Moldova, 92
Morris, M., 82n. 14, 160n. 16
Moynihan, Daniel, 134
multi-method convergence, 7n. 11, 7–8, 67–68, 75n. 6, 84–86, 117–19, 123n. 2, 128–29, 138–39, 141–42, 160n. 16, 161–63, 190–91, 195–96, 199, 204n. 16, 235n. 17
multiplicative rule, 302; violations of, 305
Murphy, A. H., 13n. 20, 47n. 45, 274n. 1
Nagel, R., 32n. 24
narratives. See history, and narrative
NASDAQ, 103, 130, 248
National Research Council, xii, xiv National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), 34–35
need for closure, 75n. 6, 241. See also cognitive style; hedgehog/fox dimension; Kruglanski, A.
neopositivists, 226, 230; hardline, 222, 224–25, 227–28; moderate, 222, 223, 225, 228–29
Neustadt, Richard, 38n. 33, 143
“New Economy” firms, 248
Nietzsche, Friedrich, 184–85n. 18
Nigeria, 90, 111–12, 112–13n. 39
Nisbett, R., 123n. 2, 128n. 9, 161n. 2
Nixon, Richard, 215
Normalized Discrimination Index (NDI), 278
North, D., 29n. 10
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 89
North Korea, 96–97, 175–76, 203–4
Novick, P., 216n. 1
Nye, J., xii n. 2
objectivity, 216–18, 229; observers, 234–35; positivist proponents of, 217; relativist and postmodernist critiques, 3–4, 219–21
Ogilvy, James, 192
optimism-pessimism, 71–72. See also boomsters-doomsters
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), 29, 191–92
overprediction. See false alarms
Packenham, R., 106n. 33
Pakistan, 90
Parker, Geoffrey, 206
Parti Québecois (PQ), 266
path dependency, 27–30; and decreasing returns, 29–30; and increasing returns, 29
Persian Gulf War I (1990–91), 113–14, 114n. 41, 130
philosophy of science, 17, 23, 182; and “naïve falsification,” 180, 180n. 13; “post-positivist,” 180
Pierson, P., 27n. 8
Pipes, Richard, xv, 146n. 5
Pitkin, H., 26n. 3
pluralism, 226, 230
Poland, 95–96
policy controversies, and the quality of debate, 229–38
“Polish Perons,” 95
political experts, 65–66n. 50, 239–40
political judgment, 3; quality of, 4–5, 8–9. See also political judgment, judgments of political judgment, judgments of, 6; adjustments to, 9; correspondence tests, 7; psychological approaches to, 7–8
political prognostication: consumers of, 235; market for, 232–33; positivist critics of, 177
politicization, 20n. 36; foxes’ greater resistance to, 103–6; use of turnabout thought experiments to diagnose, 158n. 14
Polya’s urn, 27–28
portfolio diversification, 192
Posner, Richard, 232
prediction, 19n. 34, 39, 218n. 2, 232; and explanation, 14; markets, 235n. 17, 237, 237n. 19; over- or underprediction, 101, 167, 167n. 7. See also experts/expertise, inaccurate predictions of
presidential election forecasting, 133–34
probability definitions, violations of, 305, 307–8
probability scoring, 46–47, 165, 220; and catch-up, 59, 83, 179–80; components of, 275, 277–78. See also correspondence indicators of good judgment; probability scoring, adjustments to
probability scoring, adjustments to, 283–84, 301; controversy adjustments, 9, 175–76, 295–96; difficulty adjustments, 9, 173–74, 174–75n. 10, 284–85, 287–88; fuzzy-set adjustments, 9, 176–77, 179, 181, 221, 222, 296–301, 310–11; probability-weighting adjustments, 169, 171, 171n. 8, 173, 293–95. See also value adjustments (of probability scores)
probability theorists/probability theory, 16, 34–37, 193n. 10, 227
prospect theory, 171n. 8, 173
pseudo-diagnosticity, 123n. 2
pseudoscientists, 223
Putnam, R., 113n. 40
Quebec, 17, 133, 266
radical skepticism, 19–20, 19n. 35, 26–27, 51, 59–60, 144; core tenets of, 41–44, 49; methodological background, 44–49; ontological, 27–37; psychological, 37–41, 42; varieties of, 27
Ragin, C., 176n. 11, 297n. 4
randomness, 39–41
rationality-of-leaders debates, 112–13
Reagan, Ronald, 152; administration of, xiii, xiv. See also Star Wars initiative realists, 71. See also institutionalists reality checks, 249–50
regime change, 174
regional forecasting exercises, 20; participants and individual difference measures, 239–41; research procedures and materials, 241–44; scoring rules, 245–46
regression analyses, 72n. 4
regression effects, 61
relativists/relativism, 3, 4, 8, 17, 218–19, 218–19n. 3, 224; extreme (unrelenting), 3n. 4, 4, 219–21, 223–24, 225–27; reasonable, 222–23, 228–29
Renshon, S., 5n. 5, 6n. 9
Republicans, 6, 10n. 15, 13, 15
reputational bets, 125, 180; reactions to winning or losing, 125–29. See also Bayesian belief-updating exercises; belief system defenses
retrodiction, 35–37
Reza Pahlavi, 98
rise of the West/failure of the Rest, 29
Roberts, C., 226n. 6
Roese, N., 146n. 3, 150n. 9
Ross, L., 123n. 2, 128n. 8, 196n. 14
Royal Dutch Shell, 191–92
Rubin, Robert, 17
Russell, Bertrand, 1
Russia (post-communist), 92–93
Safire, W., 2n. 1
Sagan, S., 100n. 28
Saudi Arabia, 98
scenario consultants, 191–93, 191n. 5
scenarios. See futures scenario experiments; scenario consultants
Schell, J., xii n. 3
Schwartz, P., 23n. 42, 192
self-subversion, 144
Sen, A., 15n. 24
Serbia, 91, 92
Shaw, George Bernard, 236
Simon, Julian, 17
Simonton, D., 107n. 34
Singapore, 115
skepticism, 21, 25. See also radical skepticism
Soros, George, 26–27, 30, 33
South Africa, 90, 105, 108–10, 133; demis
e of white-minority rule in, 151–52; perceptions of contingency in, 260
South Korea, 115
Soviet Union, xiv, 10, 42–43, 95, 97, 104, 116, 192; Communist Party of, 135, 151, 157; effect of Reagan’s arms buildup on, 152, 258; liberalization of, 107–8; perceptions of close calls in, 259–60; Soviet-American relationship, xiii, 158, 257–58. See also Russia (post-communist); Soviet Union, history of
Soviet Union, history of, 150–51; competing schemas, 148; counterfactual probes, 148–49; findings, 149–50
Stalin, Joseph, 26, 27, 150–51, 157, 158
Star Wars initiative, 6
statistics/statistical tests, 9; and the law of large numbers, 8n. 14
Staw, B., 164n. 6
Stewart, Potter, 3
Stigler, S., 8n. 14
stock market, unpredictability of, 33
Streufert, S., 251n. 1
sub-additivity, 208, 213, 214, 226, 227–28; greater susceptibility of foxes to, 197–200. See also additive rule; support theory; “unpacking” scenarios
subjective probability forecasts, 12–13
subjectivity, and historical assessments, 5
Suedfeld, P., 21n. 38, 75n. 6, 251n. 1
Suppe, F., 14n. 22, 180n. 13, 219n. 3
support theory, 193–94, 193n. 10, 194n. 11
Surowiecki, J., 179n. 12
Swets, J., 11n. 17, 12n. 18
Taiwan, 115, 116
Tajikistan, 92
Taylor, A.J.P., 144, 146n. 4
Taylor, S., 37n. 30
Tesser, A., 118n. 45, 138n. 18
Tetlock, P. E.: close call defenses, xiv n. 9, 82n. 14; competing spins on cognitive styles, 21nn. 38 and 41, 75nn. 6 and 7, 119nn. 48, 49, and 50, 128n. 9, 143n. 22, 164nn. 1, 2, 3, and 4, 182n. 16, 231n. 13; counterfactuals and causality, 146n. 1, 150n. 9, 157n. 12; debiasing, 186n. 20, 194n. 13, 206n. 17, 218n. 2, 235n. 17; learning, 38n. 35, 162n. 20; politicized psychology, 20n. 36, 158n. 14; proximity to nuclear war, xii n. 2, xiv n. 8; taboo trade-offs, 12n. 18, 112n. 38; thought coding, 84n. 15, 251n. 1
Thaler, Richard, 32, 235n. 17
theory-driven thinking, 214–15
“third-order” interaction (capturing when cognitive style effects are largest), 81
thought coding, 250–52
Thurow, Lester, 15
Tierney, J., 17n. 30
tipping-point models, 31
Tolstoy, Leo, 26
Toulmin, S., 14n. 22
Truman, Harry, 5
truth, 216–17; monopoly claims on, 231n. 11
turnabout tests for double standards, 257; participants, 257; research procedures, 257–58
turnabout thought experiments, 17, 18–19, 158
Turner, H., 94n. 22
Tversky, Amos, 40n. 41, 189, 193, 193n. 10, 194, 293n. 3, 303n. 5
Tyler, T., 234n. 16
Ukraine, 103–4
underprediction. See misses; value adjustment (of probability scores)
United States, 116, 117, 191. See also Soviet Union, Soviet-American relationship
unmaking of the West experiment, 152–53, 209–11; research procedures for, 271–72
unpacking of historical-counterfactuals experiments, 208–9, 267; and cognitive style, 268; participants, 268, 269; research procedures, 269–72
unpacking of possible futures experiments, 265; of Canada, 265–66; of Japan, 266–67; participants and context, 265
“unpacking” scenarios, 193–94, 197, 206, 208–11, 213. See also unpacking of historical-counterfactuals experiments; unpacking of possible futures experiments
unpredictability, 40. See also indeterminacy; radical skepticism
value adjustments (of probability scores), 9, 11, 57, 59, 166–69, 220–21, 288–89; differential-weighting method, 292–93; and the k method, 57, 288, 289–92; as response to the “I-made-the-right-mistake” defense, 135; value-neutral to value-laden conversion, 57n. 49
value neutrality, impossibility of, 229–30
value priorities, 220n. 4
variability, 275. See also base rates; probability scoring, components of
Vasquez, J., 155n. 10
Vertzberger, Y., 4n. 5
Vietnam War analogies. 38. See also analogical reasoning (from history)
von Clausewitz, Carl, 33n. 26
Waltz, K., 100n. 28
war and peace, root causes of, 99–100. See also analogical reasoning (from history)
Weber, S., 235n. 17
“Weimar Russia,” 92
Welch, D., 5n. 7
Western Airlines flight 903 crash, probable causes of, 34–35
White, R., xiii n. 5
Wildavsky, A., 42n. 42
Wilensky, H., 236n. 18
Wilson, T., 162n. 22
Winkler, R., 13n. 20, 47n. 45, 284n. 2
Wolfers, J., 218n. 2
World Bank, 114
World War I, 153–54; outcome of, 154–55
World War II, outcome of, 154–55
Yates, F., 53n. 46
Yergin, David, 29
Yugoslavia, 90, 91, 92
Zadeh, L., 176n. 11
Zaller, J., 25n. 1
Zitzewitz, E., 218n. 2