Analysis of India's Ability to Fight a 2-front War 2018
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30mm Autocannon (Vehicle-mounted)
HJ-73C ATGM (Vehicle-mounted)
Squad Assistant Leader - Lance Corporal QBZ-95 Automatic Rifle
Rifleman - Private 1st Class QBZ-95 Automatic Rifle
Rifleman - Private 2nd Class QBZ-95 Automatic Rifle
Machine Gunner - Private 1st Class QJB-95 Light Machine Gun
Rocket Gunner - Private 2nd Class PF-98A 120mm-caliber Anti-Tank Rocker Launcher (no rounds)
Assistant Rocket Gunner - Private 2nd Class QBZ-92 Pistol, 1 ATRL HE-Frag, 1 HEAT
The IFV is the core of the squad; the dismounts operate around it. Personally, I think anything less than a 10-man dismount squad is dangerously weak, and the old US Marine Corps 14-man squad is best because infantry takes casualties. (That squad was reduced to 13 to save manpower, but will soon likely be back to 14, with the second man in the squad HQ carrying a UAV.) Holding ground by fire is fine, but only about the point the vehicle and dismounts can stay together. The Chinese platoon has 4 vehicles; the fourth would carry the platoon HQ. Photographs of the PLA show men with 1-2 80mm single-shot rocket launchers. The QBZ-95 rifle can take a 35mm Under Barrel Grenade Launcher and has a 30 x 5.8mm magazine, whereas the LMG version has a heavier barrel, a bipod, and a 75-round drum magazine, but can also use the 30-round magazine. Though it has been in service only since 1995, it has undergone several improvements, and the Chinese already have a replacement. This new rifle may not be given to everyone in the rifle squad. It has a built-in 20mm “smart” grenade launcher and two sets of sights, for day and night. [176] It may have a networked capability. [Separately, the 20mm grenade is said to be a failure, with insufficient bursting power. It may be noted that the US itself had to abandon its rifle with an integral 25mm grenade launcher.]
Please note that the tracked IFV, the ZBD-04 has a 100-mm gun with a coaxial 30mm.
The turret crew is three; the dismounts remain at seven.
Please also note that the Chinese rifle company disposes of considerable firepower. A company is composed of three rifle platoons and a weapons platoon; each platoon has three rifle squads (sections) and a weapons squad. The organization below has changed.
Company HQ: 16 men, 6 snipers
Weapons platoon: 42 men; 2 MMG, 2 60mm mortar, 2 ATGW
Rifle Platoon: HQ 2; 3 x rifle squads, each 10 men with 6 riflemen, 2 grenade launcher 35mm, 2 LMG. Also, two radios. There is also a weapons squad of 8 men, with 1 LMG, 1 AGL 35mm, and 1 ATGW
Last, the battalion HQ has a weapons company of 9 x 82mm mortars and 5 SAMs.
Company Firepower India vs China
Consider as approximate
India has four rifle companies per battalion, China has three larger ones
Weapons
India (125 men)
China (~160 men)
Company mortars
3 (51mm, 1 each platoon)
2 (60mm, weapon plat)
LMG
9 or 18 depending on the task
27
AGL (Automatic Grenade Launcher
3 (35mm)
UBL (Under Barrel Grenade Launcher)
9
18
Rocket Launcher
3 (84mm)
As needed, at least 9
ATGM
3
Battalion
8 MMG, 8 81mm mortars, 6 ATGW, 8 AGL
9 82mm mortars, 5 SAM
The mortars in an Indian company are assigned one to a platoon and operate separately. The mortars in a Chinese company work together and have a greater range and throw-weight.
This does not count the 12.7mm HMG mounted on each Chinese armored personnel carrier. This probably has an effective maximum range of 2,000-meters. In plateau country, the APC/IFVs will be able to provide support to the dismounted infantry, but in the high alpine areas, the support will be limited.
The Indian battalion has about 910 troops because it has 4 rifle companies. Tank regiments have around 600 men. Chinese battalions may be mixed, i.e., two companies tanks and two mechanized/motorized companies; or they may be mixed at brigade level, i.e., two tank battalions and two mechanized/motorized battalions. In the first instance, a battalion may have around 550 men. In the second, it will be 650+ for infantry and 350 for tank. Either way, the combined number of troops is the same.
The Chinese have used many different TOs for armor. Their armored divisions have had regiments with 80 tanks, which means battalions of 26 each and companies of 8. They shifted to companies of ten (CO = 1, three troops of three each), which meant battalions of 31. Then companies of 11, making battalions of 34-35 tanks. Battalions in independent mechanized brigades had 41, which could mean four companies of 10, one each for the four mechanized battalions. Independent armored brigades had battalions of 33 tanks each, distributed as 3 companies of 11, meaning the company HQ had two versus 1. This calculation, from a Chinese publication,[177] says nothing about battalion HQ, which would be two tanks, for a total of 35. One source says the Chinese shifted to companies of 13 tanks: three platoons of four each and 1 for company HQ.[178] The reference is excellent for a detailed discussion, if you are interested, on the advantages/disadvantages of tank platoons of 3, 4, or 5 tanks. If the company remains at 13 tanks, and the mechanized company at 13 IFVs (three platoons of four each, HQ = 1), a combined brigade would now have 104 tanks and 104 IFVs, almost identical to our RAPID armored brigade. Battalions would have 26 tanks and 26 IFVs, versus a US standard of 28 and 28.
Parenthetically, in the 1986s, the Russians gave up on their Operational Maneuver Group of three regiments, each with two tank and two mechanized battalions, as too complex. And India has been talking about tailored OMGs for Cold Start. This was nice, except no one bothered to tell me, and I thought OMGs were still the tailored 2-5 division army (or corps, if you will) that the Soviets used. So, on hearing OMG used in the context of Cold Start, I was left annoyed because we already have corps, which is what an OMG is. Now the matter is clear, except there is already a useful term for OMG: it’s called a division, which may have 2-5 brigades depending on the operational requirement. The Chinese used the OMG experience to form their new mechanized divisions in the 1980s and 1990s, then switched to brigades, almost certainly with the “complex terrain” problem. The US loves this stupid phrase; all terrain is complex, even the desert. The US, of course, switched to brigades in the 2000s, with Brigade Combat Teams under division HQs. Since all US brigades are now BCT, would it kill the US to simply “brigades”? One suspects it would because the US loves snappy jargon.
PLA infantry brigades have disappeared in favor of mechanized or motorized. This is not an inviolate rule, but mechanized brigades have tracked IFV/APC, and motorized have wheeled. Army troops including a Special Forces brigade (2000+ men, more like US Rangers than US SF), plus helicopter, engineer, artillery, AD artillery, and logistic brigades plus other troops. Indian independent armored brigades usually also have 132 tanks, 3 regiments of 44 each), and a mechanized battalion, also of three companies each with 14 BMPs. The RAPID brigades have 88 tanks and 86 BMPs (excluding those with other battalion elements such as HQ, signals, ambulance, etc.), and the mechanized brigades have 44 tanks and 126 BMPs. Chinese brigade signal and engineer battalions are smaller than Indian ones, but in our case, we’d have large companies to support independent brigades.
A PLA army helicopter brigade has about 70-90 machines, making support larger than India’s. At the same time, the IAF has a large number of medium helicopter squadrons; probably bringing the eventual corps helicopter brigades to ~40 machines. Dennis Blasko feels that the 3rd Motorized Brigade in 1st Army (now called 72nd Army) may be the first Chinese airmobile brigade. As of mid-2017, the Chinese Army had 1000 helicopters.
The likely TO of 73rd Artillery Brigade is:
3 medium artillery SP battalions (152mm SP)
1 rocket battalion
2 heavy ATGM battalions (confirmed)
The likely TO of 78th Air Defense Brigade is
:
1 battalion HongQi 16 (medium range SAM, 6
rounds per launch vehicle)
1 battalion HongQi 7 SAM (Chinese Crotale, short-
range, 4 rounds per launch vehicle)
1 battalion 35mm AAA
1 battalion 57mm AAA
For the evolution of group army TOs from the 1970s to the 1990s, see p. 5 of the badly mutilated CIA document from 2012.[179] What seems to be deleted is the CIA’s evaluation of capabilities, rather than the Table of Organization.
The following is the TO of the old 39th Group Army’s 6th Artillery Brigade, for 2008 and 2011:[180]
2008
2011
1st Battalion 18xPLZ83 152mm SP Howitzer
2nd Battalion 18x PLZ83 152mm SP Howitzer
3rd Battalion 18x 59-1 130mm Towed Field Gun
4th Battalion 18x 59-1 130mm Towed Field Gun
5th Battalion 18x PHZ89 122mm MRL
6th Battalion 18x PTZ89 120mm SPAT Gun
1st Battalion 18x PLZ83 152mm SP Howitzer
2nd Battalion 18x PLZ83 152mm SP Howitzer
3rd Battalion 18x PLZ05 155mm SP Howitzer (3xx)
4th Battalion 18x PLZ05 155mm SP Howitzer. (4xx)
5th Battalion 18x PHZ89 122mm MRL (5xx)
6th Battalion 18x PTZ89 120mm SPAT Gun (6xx)
The 152mm howitzer is now considered obsolete and will be replaced by the 155/52mm which has an 825-hp engine, can fire guided rounds, and also 100-km Rocket Assisted Projectile. This shows also that China is shifting to all self-propelled artillery in its group army artillery brigade.
The numbers in parentheses in the 2011 column refer to fighting vehicle tactical numbers painted on large numerals on the side. It is possible 0xx refers to HQ company; at a guess 001 might be the brigade commander.
Corps of PLA Airborne Troops[181],[182]
[Under Air Force, the designation 15th Airborne Corps is no longer used.]
127th Airborne Brigade
128th Airborne Brigade
130th Airborne Brigade
131st Airborne Brigade
133rd Airborne Brigade
134th Airborne Brigade
SF Brigade “Thor”
Combat support brigade
Signals battalion
Engineer company
CW company
Maintenance battalion
ARV Company
Air transport brigade
Air Assault Brigade[183] (Previous Aviation Brigade)
1 x transport regiment
1 x attack helicopter regiment
1 x scout regiment
1 x airmobile battalion
The brigade has between 6-8 “units” of 12 helicopters each when at full strength. Each regiment has 6 UAVs. As of mid-2017, PLA has 11 brigades and 1 regiment. Several of the brigades are new, and it may be assumed that each Army will have one. Tibet may retain its independent helicopter regiment; these had between 4-6 units. PLA also has reserve machines within regiments, as well as reserve units. The total inventory is 1000 as of mid-2017. About 300 are attack; 500 are Mi-8/17 and Z-9 (Dauphin, 10 troops or 1.9-ton payload); the rest are light types. The inventory has as many as nine types, which is too many to maintain, including three types of attack helicopters. The US, by contrast, has three types: UH-60 utility (10 troops), AH-64 attack, and CH-47 medium lift.
8x8 brigade
4 combined arms battalions
1 arty bn
3 x companies x PCL09 SP wheeled 122-mm howitzers
1 x company x 122mm PHL10 MRL (24 rockets per launcher)
1 ADA bn
1 x company HQ-7B SAM (4 missiles x 3 launchers)
1 x company shoulder-fire HN-3 SAM (6 trucks each with two teams)
1 combat support bn
1 logistics bn
PLA Marine Brigade[184]
1-2 amphibious armored battalions each composed of 30-40 amphibious tanks or assault vehicles.
4-5 infantry battalions, some mechanized with 30-40 amphibious IFV or APC.
1 amphibious reconnaissance battalion unit probably composed of two or more smaller “frogmen” and special operations (SOF) units
SP artillery battalion.
Missile battalion with an anti-tank missile company and an anti-aircraft missile company with man-portable surface-to-air missiles.
Engineer and chemical defense battalion.
Guard and communications battalion.
Maintenance battalion.
8.4 Brief Note on PLA Rocket Force
The former 2nd Artillery is now the PLA Rocket Force, and it has a substantial number of conventional tactical missiles. The Chinese will use these missiles in a conflict with India. It is best to be at least briefly acquainted with this branch of service.
The Central Military Commission controls the PLARF, which is organized into five bases: Base 67 controls the N-warheads, and Bases 61, 62, 63, and 66 control the missiles.[185] Each of the four bases has a technical inspection regiment plus several missile brigades, which number 21 as of 2016. The missiles we are concerned with are the DF-11 (export version M-11) and DF-15 (export version M-9).[186] China has about 2,000 of these missiles, usually deployed with Taiwan as the target, but the missiles are mobile and can as easily be sent to Tibet or Pakistan. DF-11 (M-11) has a range of 280-km to 350-km depending on the model; the DF-15 has a 600- to 900-km range, again depending on the model. They are solid fuel. Payloads are 350- to 750-kg depending on the missile and the model; the lighter warheads are for the DF-11. DF-11 is estimated at 1100 missiles; DF-15 at 850.
8.5 The Chinese military today
It is not my intent to drown readers in detail but to paint a broad-brush picture.
(a) China’s overriding military priority today is to replicate Rumsfeld’s iteration of the US Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). China, through history is known for its military of huge numbers, wants to become the nation of military high technology. In 2018 this means net-centric warfare and precision weaponry. The military word that most excites the Chinese is “cyber-warfare.” It is redolent of cutting-edge, precision not mass, a symbol that China is now a Great Power. It remains to be seen how cyber-warfare will work against a modern opponent. I think the Chinese are making a mistake here.
(b) In the Chinese military environment, the most important service is the navy. The backbone of super-power capability is the ability to dominate the World Ocean. China has no intention of being known as a muscle-bound land power as was the Soviet Union. Its greatest effort is directed toward the best navy it can buy, and it is doing an excellent job of this. Already, it outnumbers India 3-1 in blue-water warships 30 or fewer years old. The measure of a blue-water warship used here is >4000-tons. In these terms, it already has the second largest navy in the world, and it immediately plans to double its size in the next few years. Having learned from the US that amphibious warfare capability is necessary for projecting power along the land peripheries of the World Ocean, it has tripled the size of its Marine Corps to six brigades. A figure of 100,000 Marines as the goal is mentioned, so perhaps more brigades will be raised. Additionally, there are amphibious brigades in the reorganized army; this may indicate the retention of capability for administrative landings as a follow-on to the assault landings conducted by Marines. This may take it another year or so because it will convert army brigades for the maritime role. It has under construction blue-water amphibious lift for four brigades; its shipbuilding capacity is so large that taking the lift to six brigades is just a matter of detail. China has in commission, under trials, and completing three aircraft carriers, the last of which equals US super-carriers. For some reason, western analysts think it is aiming for five carriers. This is incorrect. It is likely they build as many carriers as needed to equal the US, and the ships will be built two-at-a-time.
(c) The next modernization priority is the Air Force. Please avoid western estimates of 3000 fighters. This is counting everything with two wings cello-taped to a fuselage. The Chinese are
getting rid of their junk fighters rapidly. Currently, they have perhaps 500 first-class fighters; my estimate is they will build back to 1000 fighters and later more. And they are not ignoring the vast panoply of support aircraft required by a modern air force: AWACS, air tankers, transports, electronic warfare and the like. Incidentally, their reorganized airborne force has six brigades to our one. Keep this in mind for later.
Who has the biggest army in the world? If you said China, you’re wrong. It's India. Ignore, again, those western “experts” who put China first. The Chinese are so in love with “high-tech” they have reduced their army to just 13 field armies, each with six combat brigades. They are so against mass that there are suggestions they will bring the number down to 11 armies. If they do, they will have less than 50% of India’s brigades. Strangely, China’s army has the least priority for modernization. This is not because of money. China spends less than 1.5% of its GDP on defense. Rather, China sees no land threat. The reason it has 13 armies and not fewer is because it retains the option to occupy Taiwan by force. More on this later.
The makings of a Chinese Rapid Deployment Force
Andrew KC has speculated that China now has the elements of a balanced RDF. The mechanized core will be the 112th Mechanized Division (Central region), one of the last divisions left, the two current airmobile brigades, and the six Airborne and six Marine brigades. This is not entirely convincing because requisitioning the two airmobile brigades leaves their armies without this critical resource. Two airmobile brigades in the Central region, which forms the strategic reserve, will be a better idea. But let us see: it’s still too early to discuss this issue.