America Ascendant

by Stanley B Greenberg

  18. Evan Halper, “Voters See Some Good in Grim Budget,” The Los Angeles Times, July 22, 2011; statewide survey of fifteen hundred registered voters in California conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Public Opinion Strategies for The Los Angeles Times and the USC College of Letters, Arts, and Sciences, October 27–November 3, 2009; Adam Nagourney, “California Faces a New Quandary, Too Much Money,” The New York Times, May 25, 2013; Rory Carroll, “Jerry Brown, Version 2.0: ‘California’s the Healthiest It’s Been in a Decade,’” The Guardian, December 18, 2013.

  19. University of California Budget News, “UC to Get Modest Boost from State Budget,” January 11, 2013, http://budget.universityofcalifornia.edu/?p=1765; Phil Oliff, Vincent Palacios, Ingrid Johnson, and Michael Leachman, “Recent Deep State Higher Education Cuts May Harm Students and the Economy for Years to Come,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, March 19, 2013.

  20. Halper, “Voters See Some Good in Grim Budget.”

  21. Rory Carroll, “Jerry Brown, Version 2.0”; Robin Respaut, “California Sees Reserves Growing More Than $4 Billion over Two Years,” Reuters, November 19, 2014; Ed Coghlan, “U.S. Jobs Numbers Sluggish, California Economy Out-pacing National Growth,” California Economic Summit, August 2, 2013.

  22. Sharon Bernstein, “California to Raise Minimum Wage to $10 an Hour by 2016,” Reuters, September 25, 2013; “Paid Sick Leave,” National Conference of State Legislatures, December 9, 2014; Jerry Geisel, “California Expands Paid Family Leave Law,” Business Insurance, September 25, 2013.

  23. Matthew A. Winkler, “Best State for Business? Yes, California,” Bloomberg View, March 12, 2015.

  24. David Brooks, “Capitalism for the Masses,” The New York Times, February 20, 2014.

  25. Henry Goldman, “Bloomberg Proposes $20 Billion NYC Flood Plan After Sandy,” Bloomberg News, June 11, 2013; “Climate Action in Megacities,” C40 Cities Baseline and Opportunities, Vol. 2.0, February 2014; “City of San Francisco,” C40 Cities Report, 2013.

  26. “De Blasio Unveils Greenhouse Gas Reduction Plan,” CBS New York, September 21, 2014.

  27. Ronald Brownstein, “America’s Coal-Fired Divide,” National Journal, September 6, 2014.

  28. Pope Francis, Apostolic Exhortation Evangelii Gaudium of the Holy Father Francis to the Bishops, Clergy, Consecrated Persons, and the Lay Faithful on the Proclamation of the Gospel in Today’s World (Rome: Vatican Press, English ed., 2014), p. 45.

  29. U.S. Census Bureau, State and County QuickFacts, last revised February 5, 2015.

  30. Richard V. Burkhauser, Jeff Larrimore, and Kosali I. Simon, “A ‘Second Opinion’ on the Economic Health of the American Middle Class,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. 17164, June 2011.

  31. Ibid., pp. 33–34.

  32. Elisabeth Rosenthal, “How the High Cost of Medical Care Is Affecting Americans,” The New York Times, December 18, 2014; Jenna Levy, “In U.S., Uninsured Rate Sinks to 13.4% in Second Quarter,” Gallup, July 10, 2014.

  33. Remarks by President Barack Obama to a joint session of Congress at the Capitol, Washington, D.C., January 21, 2015.

  2 AMERICA’S ECONOMIC ASCENDANCY

  1. Michael Levi, The Power Surge: Energy, Opportunity, and the Battle for America’s Future (New York: Oxford University Press, 2013), p. 24.

  2. “Game Changers: Five Opportunities for U.S. Growth and Renewal,” McKinsey Global Institute, July 2013, p. 7; “Natural Gas Annual with Data for 2013,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, October 31, 2014.

  3. Ed Crooks, “U.S. Oil Reserves at Highest Since 1975,” Financial Times, December 4, 2014; Steven Mufson, “As Oil Prices Plunge, Wide-Ranging Effects for Consumers and the Global Economy,” Washington Post, December 1, 2014; Myles Udland, “Oil Prices Are Cratering—but So Is the Price of Gas,” Business Insider, December 10, 2014.

  4. James B. Stewart, “Steep Slide in Oil Prices Is Blessing for Most,” The New York Times, December 5, 2014; Tom Bemis, “Iran, Venezuela, Russia May Face Pain from Cratering Oil Prices,” MarketWatch, December 1, 2014.

  5. Sherle R. Schwenninger and Samuel Sherraden, “The Promise of (and Obstacles to) America’s Emerging Growth Story,” New America Foundation, July 2012, p. 7; Gwynne Taraska, “U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas: A Primer on the Process and the Debate,” Center for American Progress, November 5, 2013.

  6. Levi, The Power Surge, p. 55.

  7. Ibid., pp. 23–24.

  8. Daniel Yergin, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World (New York: Penguin, 2011), Kindle locations 5409–5477; Levi, The Power Surge, pp. 22–24.

  9. Yergin, The Quest, Kindle locations 5478, 5486.

  10. Levi, The Power Surge, pp. 26–27.

  11. Game Changers,” McKinsey Global Institute, July 2013, pp. 7–8; Levi, The Power Surge, p. 28.

  12. John Kemp, “Fracking Safely and Responsibly,” Reuters, March 13, 2012; Brad Quick and Morgan Brennan, “Inside North Dakota’s Latest Fracking Problem,” CNBC, August 22, 2014; Susan Phillips, “Maryland Governor Proposes Stringent Fracking Regulations,” NPR, state impact, November 25, 2014.

  13. Jennifer A. Dlouhy, “Feds Work Through Millions of Comments on Fracking Rules,” Fuel Fix, April 4, 2014; Eric Lipton, “Energy Firms in Secretive Alliance with Attorneys General,” The New York Times, December 6, 2014; national survey of one thousand registered voters conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner on behalf of the American Lung Association, November 13–18, 2014.

  14. Stephen Lacey, “Nine More Dirty, Aging Coal Plants Set to Close, Bringing Total U.S. Retirements to 106 Plants Since 2010,” ThinkProgress, February 29, 2012; “How Many Dirty Coal-Burning Plants Have We Retired?,” Sierra Club, “Beyond Coal Victories,” visited March 20, 2014.

  15. Yergin, Kindle location 5434; “Nonconventional Fuels Tax Credit,” Independent Petroleum Association of America, February 2005.

  16. Levi, The Power Surge, p. 122; U.S. Congress, Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, 110th Cong., 1st sess., 2007, H.R. 6, Sections 131, 301, 411–12, 421; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), last updated December 10, 2013, http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fuels/renewablefuels/.

  17. Levi, The Power Surge, p. 122.

  18. Ibid., p. 110.

  19. National survey of 1,530 adults conducted by Pew Research Center, March 7–11, 2012, cited in “Those Aware of Fracking Favor Its Use: As Gas Prices Pinch, Support for Oil and Gas Production Grows,” Pew Research Center, March 19, 2012, p. 2. The most popular energy policies were requiring better fuel efficiency for vehicles (78 percent favor) and increasing federal funding for research on wind, solar, and hydrogen technology (69 percent favor); national survey of 1,024 adults conducted by Gallup, March 8–11, 2012, cited by Frank Newport in “Americans Endorse Various Energy, Environment Proposals,” Gallup.com, April 9, 2012. The most popular energy and environmental proposals were setting higher emissions and pollution standards (70 percent favor), spending government money to develop solar and wind power (69 percent favor), and spending government funds to develop alternative fuel sources for cars (66 percent favor).

  20. U.S. Department of Energy, Successes of the Recovery Act, January 2012, http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/RecoveryActSuccess_ Jan2012final.pdf; Diane Cardwell, “Solar and Wind Energy Start to Win on Price vs. Conventional Fuels,” The New York Times, November 23, 2014; “Renewable Portfolio Standard Policies,” Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency, March 2013, http://www.dsireusa.org/documents/summarymaps/RPS_map.pdf.

  21. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Most States Have Renewable Portfolio Standards,” February 3, 2012; Office of Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr., Executive Order B-16-2012, May 23, 2012.

  22. Matthew A. Winkler, “Best State for Business? Yes, California,” Bloomberg, March 12, 2015.

  23. Battleground survey of sixteen hundred likely voters conducted in fifty Republican-held competitive districts conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosne
r for Democracy Corps, October 13–16, 2008. Nearly one in seven (69 percent) said this statement made them more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate; swing districts survey of twelve hundred likely voters in forty-nine Republican-held competitive districts conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps, October 10–12, 2006. Almost half (52 percent) said a candidate who says “I will be a member of Congress who works with Democrats as well as Republicans and President Bush to do whatever needs to be done to create alternative energy and move America toward energy independence” comes closer to their view.

  24. Elizabeth Shogren, “EPA Plan Targets New Coal-Fired Plants,” NPR, March 27, 2012; Coral Davenport, “McConnell Urges States to Help Thwart Obama’s ‘War on Coal,’” The New York Times, March 19, 2015.

  25. Morgan Winsor, “Sen. Mitch McConnell ‘Going to War’ with Obama Over Coal,” International Business Times, November 15, 2014.

  26. Clifford Krauss and Stanley Reed, “Surge Seen in U.S. Oil Output, Lowering Gasoline Prices,” The New York Times, December 16, 2013; Brian M. Carney, “Why This European Is Bullish on America,” The Wall Street Journal, January 10, 2014; Levi, p. 3.

  27. Trip Gabriel, Michael Wines, and Coral Davenport, “Chemical Spill Muddies Picture in a State Wary of Regulations,” The New York Times, January 18, 2014.

  28. Migration data released by the United Nations, September 2013, cited in “Changing Patterns of Global Migration and Remittances: More Migrants in U.S. and Other Wealthy Countries: More Money to Middle-Income Countries,” Pew Research Center, December 2013, pp. 4–7.

  29. New York City Department of City Planning, “The Newest New Yorkers: Characteristics of the City’s Foreign-Born Population, 2013 Edition,” December 2013; U.S. Census Bureau, State and County QuickFacts, last revised January 7, 2014.

  30. New York City Department of City Planning, “The Newest New Yorkers”; Kirk Semple, “Immigration Remakes and Sustains New York, Report Finds,” The New York Times, December 18, 2013.

  31. U.S. Census Bureau: State and County QuickFacts; Alan Ehrenhalt, The Great Inversion and the Future of the American City (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2012), pp. 92–225.

  32. Vivek Wadhwa, AnnaLee Saxenian, and F. Daniel Siciliano, Then and Now: America’s New Immigrant Entrepreneurs, Part VII (Duke University and University of California at Berkeley, October 2012), pp. 3, 25–26; Josef Joffe, The Myth of America’s Decline: Politics, Economics, and a Half Century of False Prophecies (New York: Liveright, 2014), p. 202.

  33. Joffe, The Myth of America’s Decline, p. 202. Between 1989 and 2009, American universities awarded 223,245 PhDs to foreign-born students. Students from China, India, South Korea, and Taiwan earned 150,000 of those degrees; Jon Bruner, “American Leadership in Science, Measured in Nobel Prizes [Infographic],” Forbes, October 5, 2011. Of the 314 people who won a Nobel Prize while working in the United States, more than in any other country, 32 percent or 102 of them were foreign-born.

  34. Joffe, The Myth of America’s Decline, pp. 165–69.

  35. Federal Statistical Office, “Population Estimate 2013: Number of Inhabitants Increased to Just Under 80.8 million,” 2013; Federal Statistical Office, “Germany’s Population by 2060; Results of the Twelfth Coordinated Population Projection,” November, 18, 2009, p. 5; National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, “Population Forecasts 2005–2050 for Metropolitan France,” July 2006.

  36. Joffe, The Myth of America’s Decline, pp. 168–70.

  37. Grayson Vincent and Victoria Velkoff, “The Next Four Decades: The Older Population in the United States: 2010 to 2050,” U.S. Census Bureau, May 2012.

  38. “The Economic Impact of S.744, The Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act,” Congressional Budget Office, June 2013, p. 1; Jeffrey Passel, D’Vera Cohn, and Ana Gonzalez-Barrera, “Population Decline of Unauthorized Immigrants Stalls, May Have Reversed,” Pew Research Center, September, 23, 2013; U.S. Senate, The Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act, 113th Cong., 1st sess., 2013, S.744; American Immigration Council, “Guide to S.744: Understanding the 2013 Senate Immigration Bill,” Immigration Policy Center, July 2013.

  39. U.S. Senate, The Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act; American Immigration Council, “Guide to S.744.”

  40. “The Economic Impact of S.744,” pp. 12–14.

  41. Ibid., pp. 3, 7, 9.

  42. Ibid., p. 3.

  43. Joffe, The Myth of America’s Decline, pp. 189–90; “2014 Global R&D Funding Forecast,” Battelle, December 2013, http://www.battelle.org/docs/tpp/2014_global_rd_funding_forecast.pdf.

  44. Joffe, The Myth of America’s Decline, pp. 174–75.

  45. “Academic Ranking of World Universities,” Institute of Higher Education, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2014; Fareed Zakaria, In Defense of a Liberal Education (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2015).

  46. Kevin Carey, “Americans Think We Have the World’s Best Colleges. We Don’t,” The New York Times, June 28, 2014.

  47. Joffe, The Myth of America’s Decline, pp. 191–94.

  48. Walter Isaacson, The Innovators, Kindle locations 1359–1372, 3840.

  49. Ibid., Kindle location 2785.

  50. Greg Satell, “The True Secrets of Silicon Valley,” Forbes, July 8, 2013; Vinod Khosla, “Maintain the Silicon Valley Vision,” The New York Times, July 13, 2012.

  51. McKinsey Global Institute, “Game Changes: Five Opportunities for U.S. Growth and Renewal,” McKinsey & Company, July 2013, pp. 11–12.

  52. Joseph B. White, “New Chapter for Detroit Auto Makers,” The Wall Street Journal, January 12, 2014; Colum Murphy, “Detroit’s Plan: Export Cars and Import Chinese Investment,” The Wall Street Journal, January 13, 2014; Neal E. Boudette, “Auto Makers Dare to Book Capacity: North American Factories Will Build One Million More Cars a Year,” The Wall Street Journal, January 14, 2014.

  53. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Data, “Graph: All Employees: Manufacturing (MANEMP),”accessed February 2014; U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Widespread Growth Across Industries in 2012 Revised Statistics of Gross Domestic Product by Industry for 1997–2012,” January 23, 2014; “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services 2013 Highlights for Congress,” U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, December 2013; Kiran Moodley, “‘Made in USA’ on the Rise as Manufacturing Costs Drop,” NBC News, February 3, 2014; Pilita Clark and Christian Oliver, “EU Energy Costs Widen Over Trade Partners,” Fortune, January 21, 2014.

  54. Joffe, The Myth of America’s Decline, pp. 158–60.

  55. “Offshoring: Welcome Home,” The Economist, January 19, 2013.

  56. Brian M. Carney, “Why This European Is Bullish on America,” The Wall Street Journal, January 10, 2014; Amy Myers Jaffe, “The Experts: Countering the Biggest Misconceptions People Have About U.S. Manufacturing,” The Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2013.

  57. Angelo Young, “Global Defense Budget Seen Climbing in 2014; First Total Increase Since 2009 as Russia Surpasses Britain and Saudi Arabia Continues Its Security Spending Spree,” International Business Times, February 6, 2014; Kristina Wong and Cristina Marcos, “House Passes $585B Defense Bill,” The Hill, December 4, 2014.

  58. “About Us,” Boeing.com, accessed April 2014, http://www.boeing.com/boeing/companyoffices/aboutus/brief.page.

  59. Paul Bond, “Study: Global Entertainment Industry Poised to Top $2 Trillion in 2016,” The Hollywood Reporter, June 4, 2013; “2013 Economic Contribution of the Motion Picture & Television Industry to the United States,” Motion Picture Association of America, 2011, http://www.mpaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/2013-Economic-Contribution-Fact-Sheet.pdf; “Hollywood Has Blockbuster Impact on U.S. Economy That Tourism Fails to Match,” The Guardian, December 5, 2013.

  60. Michael Cieply, “Hollywood Works to Maintain Its World Dominance,” The New York Times, November 3, 2014.

&n
bsp; 61. “The Economic Contribution of the Motion Picture & Television Industry to the United States,” Motion Picture Association of America, 2013.

  62. I unabashedly stole the title from Bruce Katz and Jennifer Bradley, The Metropolitan Revolution: How Cities and Metros Are Fixing Our Broken Politics and Fragile Economy (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 2013).

  63. Ibid., p.1; Parag Khanna, “When Cities Rule the World,” McKinsey & Company, February 2011.

  64. James Manyika, Jaana Remes, Richard Dobbs, Javier Orellana, and Fabian Schaer, “Urban America: U.S. Cities in the Global Economy,” McKinsey Global Institute, April 2012, pp. 2, 7, 11.

  65. “Cities of Opportunity,” 6th ed., Pricewaterhouse Coopers, 2014, p. 55.

  66. Manyika et al., pp. 3, 5, 9.

  67. Erin Carlyle, “Washington, D.C., Tops Forbes 2014 List of America’s Coolest Cities,” Forbes, August 6, 2014.

  68. Katz and Bradley, The Metropolitan Revolution, p. 1.

  69. Brenda Cronin, “Seattle v. Denver: Who’s Got the Better Job Market?,” The Wall Street Journal, January 31, 2014.

  70. Pamela Druckerman, “Miami Grows Up. A Little,” The New York Times, August 8, 2014; Seth Motel and Eileen Patten, “The 10 Largest Hispanic Origin Groups: Characteristics, Rankings, Top Counties,” Pew Research Center, July 12, 2012; Kevin Gray, “Cash-Rich Latin Americans Help Resuscitate Miami Real Estate,” Reuters, February 23, 2012.

  71. Lizette Alvarez, “Influx of South Americans Drive Miami’s Reinvention,” The New York Times, July 19, 2014.

  72. Leigh Gallagher, The End of the Suburbs: Where the American Dream Is Moving (New York: Penguin Group, 2013), Kindle locations 18–20, 118, 311–321; Claire Cain Miller, “More New Jobs Are in City Centers, While Employment Growth Shrinks in the Suburbs,” The New York Times, February 24, 2015.

  73. Alan Ehrenhalt, The Great Inversion and the Future of the American City (New York: Vintage Books, 2012); Gallagher, The End of the Suburbs, p. 5, Kindle locations 2272–2280; Lauren Weber, “Companies Say Goodbye to the ’Burbs,” The Wall Street Journal, December 4, 2013.