Army of None
Page 41
Notes
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Introduction: The Power Over Life and Death
1
shot down a commercial airliner: Thom Patterson, “The downing of Flight 007: 30 years later, a Cold War tragedy still seems surreal,” CNN.com, August 31, 2013, http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/31/us/kal-fight-007-anniversary/index.html.
1
Stanislav Petrov: David Hoffman, “ ‘I Had a Funny Feeling in My Gut,’ ” Washington Post, February 10, 1999, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/coldwar/shatter021099b.htm.
1
red backlit screen: Pavel Aksenov, “Stanislav Petrov: The Man Who May Have Saved the World,” BBC.com, September 26, 2013, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-24280831.
2
five altogether: Ibid.
2
Petrov had a funny feeling: Hoffman, “I Had a Funny Feeling in My Gut.’”
2
Petrov put the odds: Aksenov, “Stanislav Petrov: The Man Who May Have Saved the World.”
5
Sixteen nations already have armed drones: The United States, United Kingdom, Israel, China, Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Myanmar, Turkey. Matt Fuhrmann and Michael C. Horowitz, “Droning On: Explaining the Proliferation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles,” International Organization, 71 no. 2 (Spring 2017), 397–418.
5
“next industrial revolution”: “Robot Revolution—Global Robot & AI Primer,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch, December 16, 2015, http://www.bofaml.com/content/dam/boamlimages/documents/PDFs/robotics_and_ai_condensed_primer.pdf.
5
Kevin Kelly: Kevin Kelly, “The Three Breakthroughs That Have Finally Unleashed AI on the World,” Wired, October 27, 2014, http://www.wired.com/2014/10/future-of-artificial-intelligence/.
5
cognitization of machines: Antonio Manzalini, “Cognitization is Upon Us!,” 5G Network Softwarization, May 21, 2015, http://ieee-sdn.blogspot.com/2015/05/cognitization-is-upon-us.html.
6
“fully roboticized . . . military operations”: Robert Coalson, “Top Russian General Lays Bare Putin’s Plan for Ukraine,” Huffington Post, September 2, 2014, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-coalson/valery-gerasimov-putin-ukraine_b_5748480.html.
6
Department of Defense officials state: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research Melissa Flagg, as quoted in Stew Magnuson, “Autonomous, Lethal Robot Concepts Must Be ‘On the Table,’ DoD Official Says,” March 3, 2016, http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=2110.
6
AI programs today: For an overview of machine capabilities and limitations today for image recognition and understanding, see JASON, “Perspectives on Research in Artificial Intelligence and Artificial General Intelligence Relevant to DoD, JSR-16-Task-003,” The Mitre Corporation, January 2017, 10–11, https://fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/ai-dod.pdf.
7
Over 3,000 robotics and artificial intelligence experts: “Autonomous Weapons: An Open Letter From AI & Robotics Researchers,” Future of Life Institute, http://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/. Additionally, over one hundred robotics and AI company founders and CEOs signed an open letter in 2017 warning of the dangers of autonomous weapons. This second letter had a more muted call to action, however. Rather than calling for a ban as the 2015 letter did, the 2017 letter simply implored countries engaged in discussions at the United Nations to “find a way to protect us from all these dangers.” “An Open Letter to the United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons,” accessed August 24, 2017, https://www.dropbox.com/s/g4ijcaqq6ivq19d/2017%20Open%20Letter%20to%20the%20United%20Nations%20Convention%20on%20Certain%20Conventional%20Weapons.pdf?dl=0.
7
Campaign to Stop Killer Robots: “Who We Are,” Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, http://www.stopkillerrobots.org/coalition/.
7
“global AI arms race”: Autonomous Weapons: An Open Letter From AI & Robotics Researchers,” Future of Life Institute.
8
“If our competitors go to Terminators”: Bob Work, remarks at the Atlantic Council Global Strategy Forum, Washington, DC, May 2, 2016, http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/webcasts/2016-global-strategy-forum.
8
“The Terminator Conundrum”: Andrew Clevenger, “ ‘The Terminator Conundrum’: Pentagon Weighs Ethics of Pairing Deadly Force, AI,” Defense News, January 23, 2016, http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/budget/2016/01/23/terminator-conundrum-pentagon-weighs-ethics-pairing-deadly-force-ai/79205722/.
1 The Coming Swarm: The Military Robotics Revolution
13
Global spending on military robotics: “Robot Revolution–Global Robot & AI Primer,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
14
increasing sixfold to over $2 billion per year: Office of the Secretary of Defense, “Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap, 2005–2030,” August 4, 2005, 37, Figure 2.6-1, http://fas.org:8080/irp/program/collect/uav_roadmap2005.pdf.
14
“over-the-hill reconnaissance”: Dyke Weatherington, “Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap, 2005–2030,” presentation, 2005, http://www.uadrones.net/military/research/acrobat/050713.pdf.
14
Hundreds of drones: Ibid.
14
Drones weren’t new: “Thomas P. Ehrhard, “Air Force UAVs: The Secret History,” July 2010 Mitchell Institute Study, 28.
14
over $6 billion per year: Office of the Secretary of Defense, “Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap, FY2011–2036,” 13, http://www.acq.osd.mil/sts/docs/Unmanned%20Systems%20Integrated%20Roadmap%20FY2011-2036.pdf.
14
DoD had over 7,000 drones: Ibid, 21.
14
over 6,000 ground robots: Office of the Secretary of Defense, “Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap, FY2009–2034,” 3, http://www.acq.osd.mil/sts/docs/UMSIntegratedRoadmap2009.pdf.
15
“For unmanned systems to fully realize”: Office of the Secretary of Defense, “Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap, FY2011–2036,” 45.
15
ways of communicating that are more resistant to jamming: Kelley Sayler, “Talk Stealthy to Me,” War on the Rocks, December 4, 2014, https://warontherocks.com/2014/12/talk-stealthy-to-me/.
16
human pilot could remain effective sitting in the cockpit: Graham Warwick, “Aurora Claims Endurance Record For Orion UAS,” Aviation Week & Space Technology, January 22, 2015, http://aviationweek.com/defense/aurora-claims-endurance-record-orion-uas. Paul Scharre, “The Value of Endurance,” Center for a New American Security, Washington, DC, November 12, 2015, https://www.cnas.org/publications/blog/infographic-the-value-of-endurance.
16
“Autonomy reduces the human workload”: Office of the Secretary of Defense, “Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap, FY2011–2036,” 45.
17
“fully autonomous swarms”: Office of the Secretary of Defense, “Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap, 2005–2030,” 48.
17
2011 roadmap articulated . . . four levels of autonomy: Office of the Secretary of Defense, “Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap, FY2011–2036,” 46.
17
“single greatest theme”: Office of the U.S. Air Force Chief Scientist, “Technology Horizons: A Vision for Air Force Science and Technology During 2010-30,” May 15, 2010, xx http://www.defenseinnovationmarketplace.mil/resources/AF_TechnologyHorizons2010-2030.pdf.
18
“If I have fifty planes”: Duane Davis, interview, May 10, 2016.
19
“fifty humans and fifty balls”: Ibid.
21
the colony converges on the fastest route: Goss S., Beckers R., Deneubourg J. L., Aron
S., Pasteels J. M., “How Trail Laying and Trail Following Can Solve Foraging Problems for Ant Colonies,” in Hughes R. N., ed. Behavioural Mechanisms of Food Selection, NATO ASI Series (Series G: Ecological Sciences), vol 20 (Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer, 1990) http://www.ulb.ac.be/sciences/use/publications/JLD/77.pdf.
21
stigmergy: For an excellent overview of animal swarming, see Eric Bonabeau, Guy Theraulaz, Marco Dorigo, Swarm Intelligence: From Natural to Artificial Systems (New York: Oxford University Press, 1999).
21
“a collective organism . . . like swarms in nature”: Chris Baraniuk, “US Military Tests Swarm of Mini-Drones Launched from Jets,” BBC News, January 10, 2017, http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-38569027. Shawn Snow, “Pentagon Successfully Tests World’s Largest Micro-Drone Swarm,” Military Times, January 9, 2017, http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/pentagon-successfully-tests-worlds-largest-micro-drone-swarm.
21
China demonstrated a 119-drone swarm: Emily Feng and Charles Clover, “Drone Swarms vs. Conventional Arms: China’s Military Debate,” Financial Times, August 24, 2017.
22
a swarm of small boats: Office of Naval Research, “Autonomous Swarm,” video, October 4, 2014, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ITTvgkO2Xw4.
22
five boats working together: Ibid.
22
“game changer”: Bob Brizzolara as quoted in Office of Naval Research, “Autonomous Swarm.”
22
“always a human in the loop”: Sydney J. Freedburg, Jr., “Naval Drones ‘Swarm,’ But Who Pulls The Trigger?” Breaking Defense, October 5, 2015, http://breakingdefense.com/2014/10/who-pulls-trigger-for-new-navy-drone-swarm-boats/.
23
“Goal: Collapse adversary’s system”: John Boyd, “Patterns of Conflict,” eds. Chet Richards and Chuck Spinney, presentation, slide 87, January 2007.
24
“without necessarily requiring human input”: United States Air Force, “Unmanned Aircraft Systems Flight Plan, 2009–2047,” May 18, 2009, 41, https://fas.org/irp/program/collect/uas_2009.pdf.
24
“Authorizing a machine”: Ibid, 41.
25
“Policy guidelines”: Office of the Secretary of Defense, “Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap, FY2011–2036,” 50.
2 The Terminator and the Roomba: What Is Autonomy?
26
Three Laws of Robotics: Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics first appear in their original form in the short story “Runaround” in his 1950 collection, I, Robot. Isaac Asimov, I, Robot, (New York: Grome Press, 1950).
28
rescuing a U.S. F-16 in Syria: Guy Norris, “Ground Collision Avoidance System ‘Saves’ First F-16 In Syria,” Aerospace Daily & Defense Report, February 5, 2015, http://aviationweek.com/defense/ground-collision-avoidance-system-saves-first-f-16-syria.
3 Machines That Kill: What Is an Autonomous Weapon?
35
Well-trained troops could fire: George Knapp, “Rifled Musket, Springfield, Model 1861,” in Jerold E. Brown, Historical Dictionary of the U.S. Army (Santa Barbara, CA: Greenwood Publishing Group, 2001), 401.
35
“[T]he Gatling gun . . . I liked it very much.”: As quoted in Julia Keller, Mr. Gatling’s Terrible Marvel (New York: Penguin Books, 2009).
36
as more than a hundred men: The Gatling gun could fire 350–400 rounds per minute. A well-trained Civil War–era soldier could fire three rounds per minute with a Springfield rifle, allowing a hundred men to fire 300 rounds per minute. George Knapp, “Rifled Musket, Springfield, Model 1861.”
36
Richard Gatling’s motivation: Keller, Mr. Gatling’s Terrible Marvel, 7.
36
“It occurred to me”: Ibid, 27.
36
Gatling was an accomplished inventor: Ibid, 71.
36
“bears the same relation”: Ibid, 43.
38
they were mowed down: Ibid, 9.
39
B. F. Skinner: C. V. Glines, “Top Secret WWII Bat and Bird Bomber Program,” HistoryNet.com, June 12, 2006, http://www.historynet.com/top-secret-wwii-bat-and-bird-bomber-program.htm.
39
G7e/T4 Falke: “The Torpedoes,” uboat.net, http://uboat.net/technical/torpedoes.htm, accessed June 19, 2017; “Torpedoes of Germany,” NavWeaps, http://www.navweaps.com/Weapons/WTGER_WWII.php, accessed June 19, 2017; “TV (G7es) Acoustic Homing Torpedo,” German U-Boat, http://www.uboataces.com/torpedo-tv.shtml, accessed June 19, 2017.
39
G7es/T5 Zaunkönig: Ibid.
39
tactic of diving immediately after launch: Ibid.
40
an improved acoustic seeker: “The Torpedoes.” “Torpedoes of Germany.” “TV (G7es) Acoustic Homing Torpedo.”
41
Bat anti-ship glide bomb: Jim Sweeney, “Restoration: The Bat,” Air & Space Magazine (January 2002), http://www.airspacemag.com/military-aviation/restoration-the-bat-2925632/.
41
going “maddog”: Air Land Sea Application Center, “Brevity: Multi-Service Brevity Codes,” February, 2002, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a404426.pdf, I–19.
42
allows the missile to fly past other ships: “Harpoon Missiles,” United States Navy Fact File, http://www.navy.mil/navydata/fact_display.asp?cid=2200&tid=200&ct=2, accessed June 19, 2017. “Harpoon,” WeaponSystems.net, http://weaponsystems.net/weaponsystem/HH10+-+Harpoon.html, accessed June 19, 2017.
43
A weapon system consists of: The official DoD definition of “weapon system” takes a somewhat broader view, including the personnel and support equipment needed for a weapon to function: “A combination of one or more weapons with all related equipment, materials, services, personnel, and means of delivery and deployment (if applicable) required for self-sufficiency.” U.S. Department of Defense, “weapon system,” in “DoD Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms,” March 2017, http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/dod_dictionary/data/w/7965.html.
43
“Because ‘precision munitions’ require detailed data”: Barry D. Watts, “Six Decades of Guided Munitions and Battle Networks: Progress and Prospects,” Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, Washington, DC, March, 2007, http://csbaonline.org/uploads/documents/2007.03.01-Six-Decades-Of-Guided-Weapons.pdf, ix.
45
At least thirty nations currently employ: Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Chile, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Greece, India, Israel, Japan, Kuwait, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Paul Scharre and Michael Horowitz, “An Introduction to Autonomy in Weapon Systems,” Center for a New American Security, February 2015, Appendix B, https://s3.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/documents/Ethical-Autonomy-Working-Paper_021015_v02.pdf.
46
Some loitering munitions keep humans in the loop: Dan Gettinger and Arthur Holland Michel, “Loitering Munitions,” Center for the Study of the Drone at Bard College, February 10, 2017, http://dronecenter.bard.edu/files/2017/02/CSD-Loitering-Munitions.pdf.
47
Harpy has been sold to several countries: Israel Aerospace Industries, “Harpy NG,” http://www.iai.co.il/Sip_Storage//FILES/5/41655.pdf. Israel Aerospace Industries, “Harpy NG,” http://www.iai.co.il/2013/36694-16153-en/IAI.aspx. “Harpy,” Israeli-Weapons.com, http://www.israeli-weapons.com/weapons/aircraft/uav/harpy/HARPY.html. “Harpy Air Defense Suppression System,” Defense Update, http://defense-update.com/directory/harpy.htm. Tamir Eshel, “IAI Introduces New Loitering Weapons for Anti-Radiation, Precision strike,” Defense-Update.com, February 15, 2016, http://defense-update.com/20160215_loitering-weapons.html.
47
airborne for approximately four and a half minutes: United States Navy, “AGM-88 HARM Missile,” February 20, 2009, htt
p://www.navy.mil/navydata/fact_display. asp?cid=2200&tid=300&ct=2.
48
stay aloft for over two and a half hours: Robert O’Gorman and Chriss Abbott, “Remote Control War: Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles in China, India, Israel, Iran, Russia, and Turkey” (Open Briefing, September 2013), 75, http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/sites/default/files/Remote%20Control%20War.pdf.
49
Tomahawk Anti-Ship Missile (TASM): Carlo Kopp, “Tomahawk Cruise Missile Variants,” Air Power Australia, http://www.ausairpower.net/Tomahawk-Subtypes.html.
49
Tomahawk Land Attack Missile [TLAM]: U.S. Navy, “Tactical Tomahawk,” http://www.navair.navy.mil/index.cfm?fuseaction=home.display&key=F4E98B0F-33F5-413B-9FAE-8B8F7C5F0766.
49
TASM was taken out of Navy service: The Tomahawk Anti-Ship Missile (TASM) refers to the BGM/RGM-109B, a Tomahawk variant that was employed by the U.S. Navy from 1982 to 1994. In 2016, the Navy decided to reconfigure existing Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs) to a new anti-ship version of the Tomahawk, which would enter the force in 2021. Sam LaGrone, “WEST: U.S. Navy Anti-Ship Tomahawk Set for Surface Ships, Subs Starting in 2021,” USNI News, February 18, 2016, https://news.usni.org/2016/02/18/west-u-s-navy-anti-ship-tomahawk-set-for-surface-ships-subs-starting-in-2021.
49
Tacit Rainbow: Carlo Kopp, “Rockwell AGM-130A/B and Northrop AGM-136A Tacit Rainbow,” Air Power Australia, last updated January 27, 2014, http://www.ausairpower.net/TE-AGM-130-136.html. Andreas Parsch, “AGM/BGM-136,” Designation-Systems.net, 2002, http://www.designation-systems.net/dusrm/m-136.html.
49
LOCAAS: Andreas Parsch, “LOCAAS,” Designation-Systems.net, 2006, http://www.designation-systems.net/dusrm/app4/locaas.html
51
110 million land mines: Graca Machel, “Impact of Conflict on Armed Children,” UNICEF, 1996, http://www.unicef.org/graca/.
51
Ottawa Treaty: International Committee of the Red Cross, “Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction, 18 September 1997,” ICRC.org, https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/States.xsp?xp_viewStates=XPages_NORMStatesParties&xp_treatySelected=580.
51
Antitank land mines and naval mines are still permitted: From 2004 to 2014, the U.S. land mine policy was to use only self-destructing/self-deactivating mines. U.S. Department of State, “New United States Policy on Landmines: Reducing Humanitarian Risk and Saving Lives of United States Soldiers,” U.S. Department of State Archive, February 27, 2004, http://2001-2009.state.gov/t/pm/rls/fs/30044.htm. In 2014, the United States established a new policy of aligning itself with the requirements of the Ottawa Treaty, with the exception of the Korean Peninsula. U.S. Department of State, “U.S. Landmine Policy,” State.gov, http://www.state.gov/t/pm/wra/c11735.htm.