How to Avoid a Climate Disaster
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The late David MacKay of Cambridge University inspired me with his wit and insights. I recommend his phenomenal book Sustainable Energy—Without the Hot Air to anyone who wants to dig deeper into the subject of energy and climate change.
Vaclav Smil, a professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba, is one of the finest systems thinkers I have ever met. His influence on this book is particularly evident in the passages on the history of energy transitions, and in the errors he helped me avoid.
I’ve been lucky enough to get to meet—and learn from—a number of knowledgeable people over the years. Thanks to Senator Lamar Alexander, Josh Bolten, Carol Browner, Steven Chu, Arun Majumdar, Ernest Moniz, Senator Lisa Murkowski, Henry Paulson, and John Podesta for being so generous with their time.
Nathan Myhrvold gave me thoughtful feedback on an early draft. Nathan never hesitates to tell me what he really thinks, a quality I always appreciate, even when I don’t take his advice.
Other friends and colleagues kindly took the time to read the manuscript and offer their feedback, including Warren Buffett, Sheila Gulati, Charlotte Guyman, Geoff Lamb, Brad Smith, Marc St. John, Mark Suzman, and Lowell Wood.
I want to thank the rest of the team at Breakthrough Energy: Meghan Bader, Julie Barger, Adam Barnes, Farah Benahmed, Ken Caldeira, Saad Chaudhry, Jay Dessy, Gail Easley, Ben Gaddy, Ashley Grosh, Jon Hagg, Conor Hand, Aliya Haq, Victoria Hunt, Anna Hurlimann, Krzysztof Ignaciuk, Kamilah Jenkins, Christie Jones, Casey Leiber, Yifan Li, Dan Livengood, Jennifer Maes, Lidya Makonnen, Maria Martinez, Ann Mettler, Trisha Miller, Kaspar Mueller, Daniel Muldrew, Philipp Offenberg, Daniel Olsen, Merrielle Ondreicka, Julia Reinaud, Ben Rouillé d’Orfeuil, Dhileep Sivam, Jim VandePutte, Demaris Webster, Bainan Xia, Yixing Xu, and Allison Zelman.
I’m grateful for all the support I get from the team at Gates Ventures. Thanks to Katherine Augustin, Laura Ayers, Becky Bartlein, Sharon Bergquist, Lisa Bishop, Aubree Bogdonovich, Niranjan Bose, Hillary Bounds, Bradley Castaneda, Quinn Cornelius, Zephira Davis, Prarthna Desai, Pia Dierking, Gregg Eskenazi, Sarah Fosmo, Josh Friedman, Joanna Fuller, Meghan Groob, Rodi Guidero, Rob Guth, Diane Henson, Tony Hoelscher, Mina Hogan, Margaret Holsinger, Jeff Huston, Tricia Jester, Lauren Jiloty, Chloe Johnson, Goutham Kandru, Liesel Kiel, Meredith Kimball, Todd Krahenbuhl, Jen Krajicek, Geoff Lamb, Jen Langston, Jordyn Lerum, Jacob Limestall, Abbey Loos, Jennie Lyman, Mike Maguire, Kristina Malzbender, Greg Martinez, Nicole MacDougall, Kim McGee, Emma McHugh, Kerry McNellis, Joe Michaels, Craig Miller, Ray Minchew, Valerie Morones, John Murphy, Dillon Mydland, Kyle Nettelbladt, Paul Nevin, Patrick Owens, Hannah Palko, Mukta Phatak, David Phillips, Tony Pound, Bob Regan, Kate Reizner, Oliver Rothschild, Katie Rupp, Maheen Sahoo, Alicia Salmond, Brian Sanders, KJ Sherman, Kevin Smallwood, Jacqueline Smith, Steve Springmeyer, Rachel Strege, Khiota Therrien, Caroline Tilden, Sean Williams, Sunrise Swanson Williams, Yasmin Wazir, Cailin Wyatt, Mariah Young, and Naomi Zukor.
I’d like to thank the team at Knopf. Bob Gottlieb’s early support for this book helped make it happen. Everything you’ve heard about his brilliant editing is true. Katherine Hourigan shepherded this book through every phase of editing and production with skill and grace. Thanks also to the late Sonny Mehta, Reagan Arthur, Maya Mavjee, Tony Chirico, Andy Hughes, Paul Bogaards, Chris Gillespie, Lydia Buechler, Mike Collica, John Gall, Suzanne Smith, Serena Lehman, Kate Hughes, Anne Achenbaum, Jessica Purcell, Julianne Clancy, and Elizabeth Bernard. And thanks to Lizzie Gottlieb for introducing this project to her father.
Finally, I want to thank Melinda, Jenn, Rory, and Phoebe; my sisters, Kristi and Libby; and my dad, Bill Gates Sr., who passed away during the writing of this book. I could not ask for a more loving and supportive family.
NOTES
Introduction: 51 Billion to Zero
Photo: James Iroha.
Figure: Income and energy use go hand in hand: This graph uses data from the World Bank World Development Indicators, which is licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0) and available at https://data.worldbank.org/. Income measured as gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in 2014, based on purchasing power parity (PPP), in current international dollars. Energy use measured in kilograms of oil equivalent per capita in 2014, based on IEA data from the World Bank World Development Indicators. All rights reserved; as modified by Gates Ventures, LLC.
Photo: Launching Mission Innovation: From left to right (titles were current at the time of the event in 2015): Wan Gang, Minister of Science and Technology (China); Ali Al-Naimi, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources (Saudi Arabia); Prime Minister Erna Solberg (Norway); Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (Japan); President Joko Widodo (Indonesia); Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Canada); Bill Gates; President Barack Obama (United States); President François Hollande (France); Prime Minister Narendra Modi (India); President Dilma Rousseff (Brazil); President Michelle Bachelet (Chile); Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen (Denmark); Prime Minister Matteo Renzi (Italy); President Enrique Peña Nieto (Mexico); Prime Minister David Cameron (United Kingdom); Sultan Al Jaber, Minister of State and Special Envoy for Energy and Climate Change (United Arab Emirates). Photo: Ian Langsdon/AFP via Getty Images.
Chapter 1: Why Zero?
Figure: Three lines you should know: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) global mean temperature anomalies computed by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) Climate Explorer. Temperature change measured in degrees Celsius.
Figure: Carbon emissions are on the rise: Data for average temperature change measured in degrees Celsius, relative to the 1951–1980 average is from Berkeley Earth, berkeleyearth.org; data for CO2 measured in metric tons is from Global Carbon Budget 2019 by Le Quéré, Andrew et al., which is licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0) and available at https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/11/1783/2019/.
Photo: AFP via Getty Images.
One study estimated: Solomon M. Hsiang and Amir S. Jina, “Geography, Depreciation, and Growth,” American Economic Review, May 2015.
According to the U.S. government: Donald Wuebbles, David Fahey, and Kathleen Hibbard, National Climate Assessment 4: Climate Change Impacts in the United States (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2017).
According to research cited: R. Warren et al., “The Projected Effect on Insects, Vertebrates, and Plants of Limiting Global Warming to 1.5°C Rather than 2°C,” Science, May 18, 2018.
corn is especially sensitive: World of Corn website, published by the National Corn Growers Association, worldofcorn.com.
In Iowa alone: Iowa Corn Promotion Board website, www.iowacorn.org.
That drought was made three times: Colin P. Kelley et al., “Climate Change in the Fertile Crescent and Implications of the Recent Syrian Drought,” PNAS, March 17, 2015.
One study that looked: Anouch Missirian and Wolfram Schlenker, “Asylum Applications Respond to Temperature Fluctuations,” Science, Dec. 22, 2017.
Chapter 2: This Will Be Hard
Photo: dem10/E+ via Getty Images and lessydoang/RooM via Getty Images.
Here’s the math: U.S. Energy Information Administration, www.eia.gov.
Figure: Where the emissions are: Greenhouse gases measured in metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) from Rhodium Group. This graph also uses population data from the United Nations World Population Prospects 2019, which is licensed under CC BY 3.0 IGO (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/) and available at https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/.
Photo: Paul Seibert.
Photo: ©Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation/Prashant Panjiar.
There are parts of Asia: Vaclav Smil, Energy Myths and Realities (Washington, D.C.: AEI Press, 2010), 136–37.
And consider how long it took: Ibid., 138.
Figure: It takes a really long time: Modern renewables include wind, solar, and modern biofuels. Source: Vaclav Smil,
Energy Transitions (2018)
Natural gas followed: Ibid.
Some scientists have argued: Xiaochun Zhang, Nathan P. Myhrvold, and Ken Caldeira, “Key Factors for Assessing Climate Benefits of Natural Gas Versus Coal Electricity Generation,” Environmental Research Letters, Nov. 26, 2014, iopscience.iop.org.
about 300 million tons: Rhodium Group analysis.
Chapter 3: Five Questions to Ask in Every Climate Conversation
Table: How much power does it take?: The figures show average power consumption. Peak demand will be higher; for example, in 2019, the peak U.S. demand was 704 gigawatts. See the U.S. Energy Administration website (www.eia.gov) for more information.
In the United States: Taking Stock 2020: The COVID-19 Edition, Rhodium Group, https://rhg.com.
Chapter 4: How We Plug In
Photo: Courtesy Gates family.
Figure: 860 million people don’t have reliable access to electricity: Based on IEA data from IEA (2020), SDG7: Data and Projections, IEA 2020, www.iea.org/statistics. All rights reserved; as modified by Gates Ventures, LLC.
When you cover land: Nathan P. Myhrvold and Ken Caldeira, “Greenhouse Gases, Climate Change, and the Transition from Coal to Low-Carbon Electricity,” Environmental Research Letters, Feb. 16, 2012, iopscience.iop.org.
Figure: Getting all the world’s electricity: Renewables sector includes wind, solar, geothermal, and modern biofuels. Source: bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2020, https://www.bp.com.
One study found: Vaclav Smil, Energy and Civilization (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2017), 406.
Photo: Universal Images Group via Getty Images
In all, these tax expenditures: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information, “Analysis of Federal Incentives Used to Stimulate Energy Production: An Executive Summary,” Feb. 1980, www.osti.gov. Calculation adjusts subsidies for coal and natural gas to 2019 dollars.
Most countries take various steps: Wataru Matsumura and Zakia Adam, “Fossil Fuel Consumption Subsidies Bounced Back Strongly in 2018,” IEA commentary, June 13, 2019.
Europe is similarly well situated: Data derived from Eurelectric, “Decarbonisation Pathways,” May 2018, cdn.eurelectric.org.
But Germany produced: Fraunhofer ISE, www.energy-charts.de.
it ends up transmitting: Zeke Turner, “In Central Europe, Germany’s Renewable Revolution Causes Friction,” Wall Street Journal, Feb. 16, 2017.
Figure: How much stuff does it take: Weight of materials, measured in metric tons, per terawatt-hour of electricity generated. “Solar PV” refers to solar photovoltaic panels, which convert light from the sun into electricity. Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Quadrennial Technology Review: An Assessment of Energy Technologies and Research Opportunities (2015), https://www.energy.gov.
Figure: Is nuclear power dangerous?: This graph uses data from Deaths per TWh by Markandya & Wilkinson; Sovacool et al., which is licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) and available at https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rates-from-energy-production-per-twh.
The United States has considerable offshore wind: U.S. Department of Energy, “Computing America’s Offshore Wind Energy Potential,” Sept. 9, 2016, www.energy.gov.
In his fantastic 2009 book: David J. C. MacKay, Sustainable Energy—Without the Hot Air (Cambridge, U.K.: UIT Cambridge, 2009), 98, 109.
And in all likelihood: Consensus Study Report, “Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration: A Research Agenda,” National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine, 2019.
Chapter 5: How We Make Things
Each weighs thousands of tons: Washington State Department of Transportation, www.wsdot.wa.gov.
Photo: WSDOT.
The next time you see: “Statue Statistics,” Statue of Liberty National Monument, New York, National Park Service, www.nps.gov.
Thomas Edison tried to create: Vaclav Smil, Making the Modern World (Chichester, U.K.: Wiley, 2014), 36.
Figure: China makes a lot of cement: Measured in metric tons of cement production. Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, T. D. Kelly, and G. R. Matos, comps., 2014, “Historical Statistics for Mineral and Material Commodities in the United States” (2016 version): U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 140, accessed December 6, 2019; USGS Minerals Yearbooks—China (2002, 2007, 2011, 2016), https://www.usgs.gov.
Plastics are also what allow: American Chemistry Council, “Plastics and Polymer Composites in Light Vehicles,” Aug. 2019, www.automotiveplastics.com.
Photo: REUTERS/Carlos Barria.
China is the biggest producer: U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, “Mineral Commodity Summaries 2019.”
Between now and 2050: Freedonia Group, “Global Cement—Demand and Sales Forecasts, Market Share, Market Size, Market Leaders,” May 2019, www.freedoniagroup.com.
Table: Green Premiums for plastics, steel, and cement: Direct emission only; excludes emissions from electricity production. Source: Rhodium Group.
Chapter 6: How We Grow Things
We’ll also have to do something: Rhodium Group internal analysis.
“The battle to feed”: Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb (New York: Ballantine Books, 1968).
In the time since: World Bank, data.worldbank.org.
the average household spends less: Derek Thompson, “Cheap Eats: How America Spends Money on Food,” The Atlantic, March 8, 2013, www.theatlantic.com.
Figure: Most countries aren’t consuming more meat: Consumption measured in metric tons of meat, which includes beef, lamb, pork, poultry, and veal. Source: OECD (2020), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, https://stats.oecd.org (accessed October 2020).
Around the world: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, www.fao.org.
“The gastronomic meal”: UNESCO, “Gastronomic Meal of the French,” ich.unesco.org.
On average, a ground-beef substitute: Online survey of U.S. retail prices in September 2020 conducted by Rhodium Group.
Photo: Gates Notes, LLC.
Figure: There’s a huge gap in agriculture: Measured in thousands of kilograms (kg) of corn per hectare (ha). Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. FAOSTAT. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2020-2029. Latest update: November 30, 2020. Accessed: November 2020. https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?datasetcode=HIGH_AGLINK_2020#.
According to the World Bank: World Bank Development Indicators, databank.worldbank.org.
One study by the World Resources Institute: Janet Ranganathan et al., “Shifting Diets for a Sustainable Food Future,” World Resources Institute, www.wri.org.
It’s one of the main reasons: World Resources Institute, “Forests and Landscapes in Indonesia,” www.wri.org.
Chapter 7: How We Get Around
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/.
Figure: COVID-19 is slowing: Historical emissions provided by Rhodium Group. Projected emissions based on IEA data from IEA (2020), World Energy Outlook, IEA 2020, www.iea.org/statistics. All rights reserved; as modified by Gates Ventures, LLC.
Figure: Cars aren’t the only culprit. Source: This chart uses data from Beyond road vehicles: Survey of zero-emission technology options across the transport sector by Hall, Pavlenko, and Lutsey, which is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/) and available at https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Beyond_Road_ZEV_Working_Paper_20180718.pdf.
There are about a billion cars: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA), www.oica.net.
In 2018 alone: This assumes a gross addition of 69 million cars per year per OICA and retirements of about 45 million, with a vehicle life span of 13 years.
Figure: Chevy versus Chevy: Specifications for Chevrolet Malibu and Bolt EV are for model year 2020. Source: https://www.chevrolet.
com. Illustrations ©izmocars—All rights reserved.
When you account for: Price per mile assumes buyer pays an average purchase price for the car, owns it for seven years, and drives an average of 12,000 miles per year. Source: Rhodium Group.
Table: Green Premium to replace gasoline with advanced biofuels: Rhodium Group, Evolved Energy Research, IRENA, and Agora Energiewende. Retail price is the average in the United States from 2015 to 2018. Zero-carbon option is current estimated price.
Table: Green Premiums to replace gasoline with zero-carbon alternatives : Rhodium Group, Evolved Energy Research, IRENA, and Agora Energiewende. Retail price is the average in the United States from 2015 to 2018. Zero-carbon option is current estimated price.
a typical household spends: U.S. Energy Information Administration, www.eia.gov.
The city of Shenzhen: Michael J. Coren, “Buses with Batteries,” Quartz, Jan. 2, 2018, www.qz.com.
Photo: Bloomberg via Getty Images.
According to a 2017 study: Shashank Sripad and Venkatasubramanian Viswanathan, “Performance Metrics Required of Next-Generation Batteries to Make a Practical Electric Semi Truck,” ACS Energy Letters, June 27, 2017, pubs.acs.org.
Table: Green Premiums to replace diesel: Rhodium Group, Evolved Energy Research, IRENA, and Agora Energiewende. Retail price is the average in the United States from 2015 to 2018. Zero-carbon option is current estimated price.
Meanwhile, a mid-capacity Boeing 787: Boeing, www.boeing.com.
Table: Green Premiums to replace jet fuel: Rhodium Group, Evolved Energy Research, IRENA, and Agora Energiewende. Retail price is the average in the United States from 2015 to 2018. Zero-carbon option is current estimated price.
The same goes for cargo ships: Kyree Leary, “China Has Launched the World’s First All-Electric Cargo Ship,” Futurism, Dec. 5, 2017, futurism.com; “MSC Receives World’s Largest Container Ship MSC Gulsun from SHI,” Ship Technology, July 9, 2019, www.ship-technology.com.