The Nature of Middle-earth

by J. R. R. Tolkien

  Elwë says: “I will go with my friend, but I do not choose for anyone but myself. Let all my Folk do likewise. I do not see what harm dividing the Kindred will do – and it cannot be avoided, unless some are to be forced to do what they do not wish to do (to remain or to go). No doubt (indeed this is guaranteed) we, or any who wish, will be free to return to our homes when the War is over”. Also he says, “We are a great company – the most given to wandering afar. Let many of us at least go with the safe conduct of the Lord Oromë and see what Endor is like, and the Sea! We need not pass the shores!” ([?prophetic]!). His great point is the vision of the Sea. This moves the Lindar deeply.

  At this point, apparently dissatisfied with the absence of the Three Fathers from the ambassadorship to Valinor, Tolkien proposes a new scheme:

  Alternative. Let Imin, Tata, and Enel be the Ambassadors, and take with them as “representatives” of the Younger Elves Ingwë, Finwë, and Elwë.

  Of the Three Fathers Imin and Tata are both impressed by Valinor and desire at least to live there for some time. (Imin loves the beauty and Tata the wisdom of the Valar and their works.) Enel is less moved: there is less “space” in Valinor, and he missed the great heavens, and unexplored lands, and the freedom of plants and beasts.

  Imin claims to be the ‘Father of All Quendi’ (Ilquendatar) and to have right of decision. Tata will have it that each has authority only over his own Company; Enel that no one should be overruled to go or stay against his/her will. He proposes that first they should decide by vote of all adults what is the general wish, or which is the majority. Imin says that will inevitably divide the Folk. Tata says that is inevitable anyway without force. Imin says “but how can those decide by vote who have not seen the choice?” They must rely on their ambassadors. There then is a clamour for the “young assistants” to speak.

  Ingwë speaks with deference of the Three Fathers. His feelings are much the same as Imin’s. He was filled with the memory of the beauty of Varda. He makes a moving speech of the loveliness of her and all her works.

  Finwë (more rebellious and independent?) speaks with less deference, hinting that even Tata did not employ his time as fully as might be, and has not depicted aright the wealth of the Valar in wisdom and skills, of which a long sojourn could master only a small part. (He has undisclosed thoughts of the enhancement of his lover Míriel’s skill.) But his most effective point is (see above) in frightening the Quendi by revealing the power of Melkor and the Valar and the probable ruin of the War in Endor.

  Elwë as above – He [?treats] Enel for a free vote and emphasizes freedom of return.

  Imin reluctantly agrees to a vote. Not all are present, but about 2/3 are in favour of acceptance, and the Quendi sit long in silence. The stars come out and they are reluctant to go. Dawn comes and many are eager to start. As day wears on they vote: ¾ will go. The stars come out again and many change their minds.[10]

  TEXT 2A

  These draft texts (2a and 2b), which as will be seen precede text 1, occupy four sides of two sheets of unlined paper. They are written in black ink with a narrow-nib pen, in a hand that differs from the preceding text and from most of the other texts in the “Time and Ageing” bundles, more closely resembling the hand used in chaps. XII, “Concerning the Quendi in Their Mode of Life and Growth”, above, and XVI, “Note on the Youth and Growth of the Quendi”, below. Some subsequent alterations and notes are made in green ball-point pen and (mostly) in pencil. The four sheets on which these texts and text 3 below are written were inserted between the third and fourth sheets of the preceding text.

  New Scheme

  Some tentative dates

  Days of Bliss. End of Waiting Time. First Age begins.

  VY 865/1[11] Awaking of Quendi (Spring). 1

  Melian warned in dream leaves Valinor andgoes to Endor.

  871/1 Oromë finds the Quendi and dwells with them for 48 years. 864–912

  871/48 Tidings of the Quendi brought to Valinor. 912–960

  Melkor seeks to attack Oromë. Oromë sends news back to the Valar, and Tulkas comes.

  871 end Oromë returns to Valinor and reports. 960–1007

  Council of the Valar.

  872/1–10 Oromë returns to Cuiviénen. Valar prepare for War against Melkor. Manwë decides (though?Varda and Ulmo are against it) that the Quendi should be brought to Valinor before the War – which may be very destructive. But in Varda’s urgent advice the Quendi are only invited to come. 1008–1018

  872/48 Oromë and Tulkas are needed for the War. The Valar send the Five Guardians (Olórin etc.), with special power. 1056

  872/50 Oromë and Tulkas return to Valinor, bringing ambassadors or representatives of the Three Companies (young Quendi: Ingwë, Finwë, Elwë, grandsons of Imin, Tata, and Enel). 1058

  This chronological scheme ends here, but is accompanied by two marginal notes (left and bottom, respectively) which read:

  864 – 872/50 = VY 8/50 = 1,202 years.[12] Ingwë, Finwë, Elwë are about 36 only and unwed, or Ingwë is 60 and wedded. Finwë is 48 and betrothed. Elwë is 36.

  Ingwë 60 in 1058, therefore born 998. On the “Quick prolific” scheme = one of the 5th gen. = great-great grandchild [of Imin]. Finwë 48 born 1010. Elwë 36 [born] 1022. On older scheme

  The note ends here, in the bottom margin of the page. On the verso are somewhat rougher, struck-through notes in ink, the contents of which are clearly preliminary to and were incorporated into the next text, and so are not given here.

  TEXT 2B

  New Scheme

  Old Scheme. “Days of Bliss” last [VY] 1–1050 before “Awaking” = 10,500 [sun-]years.[13] Not long enough. Let “DB” be longer, and Elvish Events packed at end. The intrusion from outside into the “artificial” world of the Valar soon destroys it!

  New. The Trees flower for 864 VY before Awaking = 124,416 [sun-]years. Quendi then awake in Spring of [VY] 865 (124,417 [YS]).[14] “DB” still goes on, but Quendi start reckoning of First Age with Awaking.

  First Age must last somewhat longer than SA (= 3,441). Still be more regularly “duodecimal” (as mythological) up to Death of Trees and after! Say, 4,056 years.

  Death of Trees is 24 VY (= 3,456 [YS]) after Awaking = VY 888. First Age should then occupy 4,032 years = 28 VY. That is 3,456 (Death of Trees) + 576 [sun-]years (= 4 VY). But actually war last[s until] 600? So FA = 4,056 [YS] = 28[VY +]/24[YS].

  Quendi therefore enter Valinor sometime after VY 864. After VY 864 all dates should be given in [sun-]years (as well as VY). Found 864 [sun-]years after awaking = 6 VY. VY 870. (About 12 VY elapse before all settled in Valinor. VY 876.)

  The text ends here, about three-fourths down the page. Tolkien subsequently made some alterations to dates in green ball-point pen, changing the year of the Awaking again, to 850, and writing against this change: “Quendi Found in 864”; then changing the relative date of the Death of the Trees to 24 VY after the “Finding”; and finally changing the date at which the Quendi enter Valinor to “after VY 850”. Tolkien however did not make the further adjustments to the rest of the text that would be needed to harmonize it with these changes (e.g., recalculating the number of sun-years elapsed at the Awaking in VY 850), so I have left the original figures and wording to stand above. But since the date of the Awaking arising here by final alteration, VY 850, appears ab initio in text 1 above, it is evident that these two texts, 2a and 2b, are successive preliminary drafts for the much more expansive text 1.

  On the verso of this last sheet are, again, somewhat rougher notes and calculations, mostly in pencil. Of chief note are the two statements Tolkien wrote in black ink in narrow-nib pen, the first at the top of the page:

  Time in Valinor must be given in Sun-years (löar). In old scheme Trees lasted from VY 1–1495 = nearly 1495 × 10 [sun-]years = 14,950 löar. This period is too short.

  The second is in the top margin (with which cf. the element in text 1, whereby both Melian and the Istari were sent to the Elves at Cuiviénen as Guardians): />
  Elves warned by Eru or guards?

  TEXT 3

  This text was written in increasingly difficult red ball-point pen on the rectos of two pages from an engagement calendar, for the weeks 8–14 Feb. 1959 and 1–7 Mar. 1959, respectively. The Valian-year dates here are considerably later than those of the preceding texts, but those for the Awaking and the Finding by Oromë agree with those in the text presented here as chap. XIV, “Calculation of the Increase of the Quendi”, below, as revised.

  Tale of Years

  VY 1728 Death of Trees

  VY 1386/1 Awaking of Quendi. Melian has warning of them in dream and leaves Valinor.

  1392/1 Finding by Oromë. 6 VY = 864 [sun-]years

  1392/3 Oromë returns to Valinor with tidings. Council of the Valar.

  1392/6 Oromë returns to Cuiviénen.

  1393 Valar prepare for war. Oromë returns with Ingwë, Finwë, Elwë. Valar issue from Valinor, invest Angband. See [?difficulties].[15]

  1394 Oromë sent with Ingwë, Finwë, Elwë to Cuiviénen. Debate of the Quendi. Long delay, they do not wish to leave Cuiviénen and [?will not].

  1395 Fall of Angband. Valar anxious as war will break out and be destructive. Delay deploying forces [?all round] Utumno [?and Oromë heads up coasts]. [?But] Sauron escapes. [???].

  1396 Great March begins. 2/3 follow Young Lords Ingwë, Finwë, Elwë. 1/3 Avari. [?Mostly proceed by??] of the first born [?march]. [?] of March. Oromë has often to go back to war. March [?occupies] 3 VY?

  1399 Elves reach Beleriand.

  1400 Elwë lost. Vanyar and Ñoldor taken by Island reach Aman.

  1402 Teleri depart leaving Sindar.

  1402/92+ Eressëa made fast.

  XIV

  CALCULATION OF THE INCREASE OF THE QUENDI

  The two texts presented here are written in a generally clear hand in black nib-pen on nine sides of ten sheets of unlined paper. Subsequent additions and corrections were made in red ball-point pen. There is no clear indication of date, but given its general character and the fact that it evidently precedes the text presented here as chap. XVI, “Note on the Youth and Growth of the Quendi”, below – since unlike that text Elves here still have a 9-year gestation period – it can be confidently dated to c. 1959.

  Note that the dates of the Finding and Awaking as revised agree with those appearing ab initio in text 3 of chap. XIII, “Key Dates”, above.

  TEXT 1

  Calculation of the Increase of the Quendi

  from the Awaking to the Beginning of the Great March[1]

  First Elves. Awoke at maturity. Population 144. Began at once to engender the second generation. This, therefore, with the first births will begin to appear in VY 1000/9. It will take VY 1/90[fn1] years to complete (i.e. up to date of last births). All 72 pairs of “destined spouses” wed, and the average family is 6 per pair. In VY 1001/90, therefore, the increase will be 72 × 6 = 432. Population 576.

  After this various things that modify this first process must be considered:

  (a) The age at which the new generations begin to beget children will slowly increase by 6 coimendi (= 6 VY) on an average, until 48 is reached, which will then remain the average age for a very long time: First Elves at maturity (24): 2nd gen. at 30; 3rd gen. at 36; 4th gen. at 42; 5th gen. (and many later generations) at 48.

  (b)The length of time in which a generation is completed, sc. the average intervals between births, also increases, while becoming (in cases considered individually) more variable. But probably an average time for the completion of a generation (from first begetting to latest birth) for the completing of all generations after the First until the Eldar reach Valinor may be set at 2 VY = 288 löar.[2] ☞ This will be irrespective of the actual average number of children produced in each family, since as this number falls, the intervals between births also rise.[3] (This average of VY 2 = 288 löar reckons from the first begetting to the last birth. The period would probably be for 6 children: 294 löar; for 5: 285; for 4: 288; for 3: 287; averaging at 288.5.)[fn2]

  (c)Average production of children per pair or family also decreases from 6 by 1st, 2nd, and 3rd generations, to 5 by the 4th gen., to 4 by the 5th gen., to 3 thereafter in the 6th gen. and subsequent generations (at least up to arrival in Valinor).[4]

  (d)After the engendering by the First Elves of the 2nd gen. the proportion of males and females varied, not being equal (though remaining always near to an equal division). Thus not all could find spouses; already a few did not desire marriage; and there were various ill-chances and losses (especially after Sauron discovered the Quendi). The wedded pairs therefore cannot be found by dividing the numbers of each generation by 2. A proportion, beginning with 1% of the 2nd gen., and increasing (by 1%) in each following generation until 10% is reached, must be deducted from the complete 100s before division by 2.

  If these factors are taken into account, it is possible to calculate, with fair accuracy, the increase of the Quendi from the date of their Awaking until their Finding by Oromë 90 VY later, or any other date decided upon.[5]

  * * *

  see note [6]

  The number of the Quendi therefore at about 106 Valian years after their Awaking would have been about 57,500.

  But if Oromë arrived in VY 1090 that would be before the first births of the 7th gen.; and the youngest of the 6th gen. would be VY 90 – VY 77/126, or nearly 12 VY “old” = Elf-men VY 2 = 24 + VY 10 = 10 = 34; Elf-women VY 1½ = 18 + VY 10½ = 10½ = 28½. They would all be fully mature and marriageable, and though the beginning of the 7th gen. would in undisturbed circumstances have probably been delayed for another 4 VY (or nearly so) the change of life might alter that.

  Also note that the eldest men of the 6th gen. would already be over age 43, while the youngest women would be over 28 and past the ordinary marrying age. So that from at least the 6th gen. (or indeed the 5th gen.) we have to reckon with marriages within a generation and the loss of an unmixed sequence.[7]

  On the above calculation: if there were a total of 32,414 Quendi at the end of the 6th gen., this would be the total population when Oromë found them in (say) VY 1090 (90 VY later): the youngest would then be “30” in age.

  The “Companies” should be still in approximate proportion of 14⁄144, 56⁄144, and 74⁄144. If we take the actual total to be 32,400, these proportions would be exactly 3,150, 12,600, and 16,650. But many of the Quendi will become Avari. Say 1/3 of total = 10,800. The Marchers or Eldar then will number 21,600. 1⁄72 of this is 300. Therefore the Vanyar will be 2,100; the Ñoldor 8,400; and the Lindar 11,100.

  This suffices (barely?). There will probably be increase on the March, and greater increase in Valinor(?). But more would be better. *And the time required is far too great. 90 VY = 12,960 [sun-]years: this is much too long for the Quendi to be left unguarded and at the mercy of Melkor and Sauron!! (In the original scheme only 85 × 10 = 850 years was allowed.)[8]

  But if the time is reduced, the rate of increase must be very greatly raised. The Quendi in their first few generations before the March (or reaching Valinor) must – as is quite reasonable – be made far more eager for love and the begetting and bearing of children. *They must have larger families, at shorter intervals between births.

  The Valian Years of the Trees should be duodecimal. Let VY 1728 be the death of the Trees. In the older scheme about 400 VY = 4,000 years covered events from the Finding to the Darkening of Valinor. But Elves now live at a rate 14 times or more as slow. We can allow about 48,000 years, or on present scheme about 3331/3 VY. Say 336 (or 12 × 28) = 48,384 löar. (Or 324 = 12 × 27 = 46,656 löar).

  In that case the Finding should take place about 1728 – 336 = 1392. The Awaking should take place not more than 6 VY (= 864 years) previously, that is in VY 1386. (The entry into Valinor could be later by 12 VY – later allowing for a long sojourn of Oromë and negotiations, and for delays on the March – or perhaps better only 6 VY: sc. early VY 1404 or 1398.) In these 6 VY the Quendi must increase to over 30,000 from 1
44.

  Let the First Elves awake in VY 1386 (with the Finding in 1392).

  Between VY 1386 and 1388/94, all 72 pairs wed and (at once) produce 12 children each = 72 × 12 = 864. Population = 1,008.

  Between VY 1386/9 (first births) + VY 2 (maturity) = 1388/9 and 1388/84 + 2 VY + VY 2/84 = 1393/24, 430 (not 432) pairs wed and produce 12 children each = 5,160.[9] Population = 5,738.[10]

  Between VY 1388/9 + 2 VY = 1390/9 and VY 1393/24 + VY 2 + VY 2/84 = 1397/108, 2,500 pairs (not 2,580) and produce 12 children each = 30,000. Population = 35,738.

  About this time the Great March begins.

  It is not necessary to have quite so many as 35,738 Quendi, and their generation need not be quite so prolific and precipitate![11]

  Elves awake VY 1386. Population 144.

  The First Elves at once beget children and in their joy and vigour begin at once and beget 12 each pair on average: 12 × 72 = 864. These the first births will take place therefore in 1386/9 and the last after VY 1/96 years. 12 gestations of 9 years (= 108) + 11 intervals of 12 years (= 132) = 240 = VY 1/96. 1387/96. Population = 1,008.

  2nd gen. First born 1386/9. Last born 1387/96. First births 1386/9 + VY 2 (maturity) + 9 = 1388/18. Last births 1387/96 + VY 2 + VY2/18 = 1391/114. (VY 2/18 represents rise of interval to 18 years.)[12] 430 pairs × 11 = 4,730. Population = 5,738.

  3rd gen. First born 1388/18 + VY 2 + 9 = 1390/27. Last born 1391/114 + VY 2 + VY2/84 = 1395/198 (VY 2/84 represents rise of interval to 24 years.)[13] 2,350 pairs × 10 = 23,500. Population = 29,238.

  4th gen. First born 1390/27 + VY 3 + 9 = 1393/36. Last born 1396/54 + VY 3 + VY 2/84 = 1401/138. 11,500 pairs × 9 = 103,500. Population 132,738.[14]

  TEXT 2

  There remains a curious final scheme – final in the sense that it is now on the recto of the last sheet in this small bundle – but that is in no sense continuous with or a development of the second of the two schemes presented above. In fact, it shares the chronological starting point of the first of those schemes, in which the Quendi awake in VY 1000 and the 2nd generation begins to appear in VY 1000/9, and so conceptually precedes the second scheme, in which the Quendi awake in VY 1386.