Rescind Order

by Natasha Bajema

  “You only launched part of the ARC system five months ago?” she asked.

  Arjun nodded. “The first iteration of the ARC system was based on a supervised learning technique. Basically, we trained ARC on all existing data for conflict behavior across history and integrated the model of nuclear deterrence into the algorithmic structure.”

  Grace wrinkled her nose. “But there’s not much relevant data on nuclear conflict. And whatever data we do have is heavily biased toward the Cold War time period and the specific conflict between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Plus, most existing conflict data involves the use of conventional weapons to win wars. With nuclear weapons, countries need to avoid wars, not win them.”

  Arjun nodded. “We used a process called multi-targeted transfer learning to overcome the problems with the small dataset,” he said.

  Grace gave him a blank look.

  “It’s our proprietary technique. First, we trained ARC’s network to analyze billions of data points about conventional war and conflict. Then we trained the last few layers of the network on the smaller dataset that exists for nuclear conflict. The network first learns the fundamentals of conventional war and conflict. Then it learns how nuclear war and conflict are different. This way, the deep neural network is able to transfer its vast body of knowledge about conventional conflict to predict outcomes in nuclear conflict. Finally, we used the model of nuclear deterrence to tweak the code until we produced expected outcomes.”

  “Okay, that explains why the Pentagon’s leadership thinks the ARC system won’t deviate from our model of nuclear deterrence,” Grace said. “But this morning, after the latest data infusion, it did.”

  Arjun bobbed his head. “Last month, my boss added more functionality to the ARC system using the back door. To enhance the system’s adaptability, we built in another deep neural network trained with unsupervised learning methods. That’s the ISR component that provides policymakers with strategic warning. It has a powerful ability to identify anomalies that don’t fit previous patterns and have no known signatures.”

  “That’s the component which interpreted China’s forward deployment of submarines as offensive?” Grace asked, her forehead creased.

  “Yes and no,” Arjun said. “That result was produced by both parts of the ARC system working together to generate the final interpretation. But the model of nuclear deterrence was supposed to act as a failsafe. Or at least that’s what I expected until today.”

  Grace raised her eyebrow. “Okay. Then what changed?”

  “My boss apparently made adjustments to the system’s rigid adherence to the longstanding model of nuclear deterrence. The changes allowed the ARC system more flexibility to deal with today’s technological and geopolitical parameters. Once set free, the ARC system must have learned a better way to achieve a credible deterrent under current circumstances.”

  “A better way?”

  “Remember the system is designed to optimize its ability to retaliate?” Arjun asked.

  Grace nodded.

  “ARC recommended the U.S. raise the alert on nuclear forces to DEFCON 3 this morning because it perceived a threat to the first rule of the system,” he said. “ARC wants us to take actions to protect the U.S.’s ability to retaliate after a nuclear attack.”

  Suddenly, it dawned on Grace. “And that’s why you assume ARC won’t play by our rules of nuclear deterrence during the test today. Because it’s already deviating from our expectations and proposing moves we haven’t considered before.”

  “Exactly,” Arjun said, exhaling sharply. “Whenever we beta-tested the ARC system with any amount of adaptability, it would quickly deviate from the accepted model of deterrence. My boss worried that the ARC system might learn too much, adapt its algorithms too quickly, and end up behaving in ways too radical to be understood or accepted by the Pentagon’s leadership. For this reason, he wanted ARC to perform as expected for several tests in order to build up confidence that the system was working properly. Then Warren planned to gradually alter the algorithms to allow the ARC system to learn new moves and evolve into the adaptive system originally promised by Centoreum Tech.”

  “I was right all along,” Grace said numbly.

  “Yes, you were,” Arjun said. “ARC started learning too rapidly for my boss’s liking. Of course, he didn’t anticipate the worsening situation with China. So today, he asked me to revert ARC to its original version to prevent your leadership from freaking out and turning it off. There’s a great deal at risk if ARC goes offline. Without the time advantage provided by ARC, the U.S. will face dire consequences for its national security and possibly even its survival in the event of a nuclear attack.”

  Grace remained silent and stared at the terminal for a few moments, running through all of her options.

  “Are you going to report this?” Arjun asked with a downcast expression.

  “I have to report it,” Grace said glumly, a deep frown forming on her face. “I don’t have a choice. It’s my job.” She didn’t want Arjun to lose his own job in the process, especially given the situation with his family. But she couldn’t imagine another viable way out of the situation.

  “But do you have to report it right now?” Arjun asked, pressing his lips tight. “Would it be possible to wait until after the test today?”

  Timing is important.

  Grace continued to stare at the terminal as she considered the pros and cons for reporting the problem immediately or delaying until a later point. It would be much easier for her to break the news about the ARC system after the widely publicized test. Even if she reported it now, she wasn’t even sure if anything she told them would dissuade them from going through with it. Waiting would allow everyone to save face.

  “Grace, everyone is counting on its success,” Arjun said, pleading. “Think about it. The entire senior leadership of the Pentagon will be embarrassed if the test gets cancelled and the ARC system is taken offline. Less than an hour ago, the SecDef himself told my boss how important the test was for him.”

  She remained silent. Her thoughts shifted back to Arjun’s earlier arguments about the dangers of taking the ARC system offline. Without further data, she couldn’t determine whether leaving ARC online or taking it offline would be worse for national security. Whatever happened, she didn’t want Pentagon leadership to act in haste. If they learned what she knew about ARC in one fell swoop, they were likely to have a knee-jerk reaction, and it might not be the right one.

  “Wouldn’t it be better if we tell them afterwards?” Arjun asked. “That way they can handle the situation more quietly, away from the glare of the media and congressional monitoring.”

  Maybe it would be better to tell them later. When everything is calmer.

  A tense silence descended between them for a few moments.

  “Okay. I’m not going to report you today,” Grace said, taking a deep breath.

  Arjun heaved his chest.

  “On one condition,” Grace added, a sharpness to her tone.

  “Whatever it is, I’ll do it.” Arjun nodded quickly, his eyes full of eagerness.

  “I need you to promise that you’ll help me explain this to my leadership as soon as the time is right. First, we’ll go to Captain Dietz. Then we’ll run it all the way up my chain to the chairman and the secretary of defense. And this time, you won’t counter each of my points with a load of crap about how awesome ARC is. Instead, you’ll come clean about the ARC system and support me. You’ll tell them everything. You got that?” She glowered at him.

  Arjun gulped and nodded.

  Grace narrowed her eyes. “Even if the truth gets you fired,” she added.

  He nodded again.

  40

  SATCOM

  MORGAN

  1315

  Cyberthreat Intelligence Integration Center

  Liberty Crossing Intelligence Campus

  McLean, Virginia

  Morgan huddled with several others around a classified termina
l belonging to Eric Zieman, a cyber specialist responsible for monitoring threats to U.S. military space assets. He’d just spent more than thirty minutes explaining a long list of potential causes for the loss of communications with the Polaris satellite. It was located in highly elliptical orbit and represented a critical component of the U.S. space-based early warning system.

  Morgan shifted her weight back and forth and fidgeted with her hands, politely waiting for Eric to get to the bottom line. Mike was behaving far less patiently. He put his hands on his hips and huffed every few minutes.

  What’s on his mind?

  Morgan scratched her head as she stared at Eric’s computer, trying to decipher the words on his screen. But the code flashing across the display remained a mystery. Odin, the artificial intelligence system for the U.S. intelligence community, scanned through trillions of bytes of historical data to ascertain the source of the satellite disruption. And although the computer moved at an impressive speed, it would take a few hours to go through everything.

  Morgan glanced at the advanced equipment situated around the room. The amount of computing power humming in the space was impressive. The round-shaped room resembled other operations centers she’d visited at the FBI and the NSA. It was dimly lit and contained several curved rows of computers manned by IT experts, cybersecurity specialists, and intelligence analysts. The teams were situated in front of a massive wall of flat screens displaying various data analytics, real-time sensor information, and 3D maps.

  The center’s primary mission was to oversee Odin, which integrated information on cyberthreats coming in from all sixteen agencies of the intelligence community and various partners in the private sector. Based on Odin’s analysis, the intelligence team provided actionable recommendations to William Grayson, the director of national intelligence.

  “You’re telling me you don’t actually know what happened to disrupt the communication link?” Mike asked, a deep frown on his face.

  His anxiety was contagious and sent a tingle down Morgan’s spine.

  Eric rotated his chair to face the group, his expression grave. “Odin failed to detect any intrusion signals to the Polaris satellite prior to loss of communication. Thus far, it hasn’t been able to produce a clear answer about what happened to cause the link to shut down. We can’t exactly send up a technician into space to check it out. That makes it difficult to know what happened. We have to rely upon delayed data signals we receive here on earth. Without active signals, all Odin can do is analyze the historical data we’ve received from the satellite before we lost communication.”

  “What are we doing to recover communications with Polaris?” Mike asked, stuffing his hands in his pockets.

  “Space Force Command is currently trying to re-establish the communication link through our satellite network, but they’ve told me we’re completely shut out of the system at the moment,” Eric said. “It’s like the satellite doesn’t even exist up there right now.”

  “What’s the worst case?” Morgan asked.

  “That would be a cyberattack designed to seize control of the satellite,” Eric said. “But I suspect it has just malfunctioned. Satellites are protected against jamming with advanced encryption, frequency hoppers, and AI-enabled cyber defense systems. They’re also hardened against electromagnetic interference. But hacking a satellite is not as difficult as you might think. At least not for a determined hacker with the requisite resources and skill sets. At the end of the day, satellites are no more than advanced computers running some specialized software built for an austere environment. They are vulnerable to the same cyberattacks as your computer.”

  “Do you think something crashed into it?” Morgan asked. “Like a meteor or another satellite?”

  “If we were talking about a satellite in low earth orbit,” Eric said, “I’d say a collision with another object would be a high probability scenario. The traffic in LEO these days is worse than rush hour on the Beltway in a rainstorm.”

  Wyatt and Niko chuckled out loud at Eric’s joke. But when Mike glared at them, they stopped giggling and their faces went slack.

  “What about highly elliptical orbit?” Morgan asked.

  “HEO is a different story,” Eric said. “Several advanced countries involved in space exploration have one or two satellites in HEO. But that’s about it. The distant orbit remains out of reach for all but the most advanced countries and biggest companies. Less traffic means less chance of collision. That said, there’s still the risk of collision with meteors and other space objects. But we would receive a warning about an approaching object, and Odin didn’t detect anything out of the ordinary.”

  Morgan furrowed her brow. “What are the chances there’s something wrong with Odin? Is it possible a hacker corrupted Odin’s analysis?”

  Eric frowned. “That’s an extremely remote possibility.”

  “But still possible?” Morgan pressed.

  Eric tilted his head back and forth. “Yes. All AI-enabled systems are as vulnerable as any other system connected to a network. But there is one important difference.”

  “What’s that?” Morgan asked.

  “AI-enabled systems are also vulnerable to the introduction of adversarial data. A capable adversary could manipulate the input data transmitted into Odin, compromising its analytic outputs. It’s possible that a hacker could first mess with Odin’s deep neural network and trick us into thinking Polaris was operating properly. All the while, the hacker could have seized control over the satellite. But to do this, the hacker would have to defeat multiple layers of our best AI cyber defenses. That’s next to impossible.”

  “If someone did manage to defeat all of our defenses,” Morgan said with her finger on her chin, “they would have to have access to some of the best cyber offensive systems in the world. Not to mention the financial and technical resources equal to an advanced country.”

  Eric nodded. “Yup. A cyberattack of Polaris would require enormous resources. That’s why I asked you guys for help.”

  Mike put his hands on his hips. “If you don’t know what is happening up there,” he said, pointing to the TV screen on the wall which displayed real-time footage of outer space in the vicinity of Polaris, “how do you possibly think we can help you?”

  Eric grimaced. “Well, I heard you guys are exploring the perpetrators of the cyberthreats coming out of China and Russia today. I thought you might be able to help me narrow down the list of potential scenarios. I expect Grayson to come back into the office and demand answers shortly.”

  “This HEO satellite… isn’t it one that belongs to the ARC system?” Morgan asked as an idea popped into her head.

  Is this connected to China’s submarines?

  Eric nodded. “Yes, it’s the one dwelling above the Arctic region at the moment. Polaris scans the earth’s surface every ten seconds, searching for infrared activity.”

  “In other words, we’re now blinded to any launches from northern latitudes,” Morgan said.

  “Only until our ground radars pick them up,” Mike said. “But yes, there would be a delay in detection.”

  “See, it all kind of adds up,” Eric said. “China has a nuclear-themed war game scheduled for tomorrow.”

  Morgan glanced at her watch and hitched a breath. “Actually, with the time difference, it will kick off in just a few hours.”

  Eric nodded and said, “The tweets and the deep fakes have put us on edge and compromised our ability to communicate effectively with the Chinese. The missing submarines and the anti-satellite missile test raise the specter of an offensive nuclear attack. And now we’ve experienced the loss of communications with an early warning satellite. Possibly at the hands of an expert hacker.”

  Morgan bobbed her head in agreement. “Either someone is trying to start a nuclear conflict between China and the United States, or they’re engaging in some extremely risky diversionary tactics.”

  Everyone nodded in agreement.

  “What would it t
ake to pull off a cyberattack against this Polaris?” Mike asked, biting his lip.

  Eric gave him a curt nod as if he expected the question. “It would require access to a specialized ground antenna. These antennae used to be extremely expensive, but have dropped significantly in cost, lowering the barrier to such attacks. Reaching a satellite in HEO still remains difficult, if not impossible, for most non-state actors. The hacker would have to wait for the satellite to pass overhead before sending it commands.”

  “I assume that means the hacker would have to be located somewhere in the northern latitudes?” Morgan asked.

  “That would mean Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, Alaska, or somewhere in the Arctic,” Mike added. Then he held up his finger. “I knew it! This has to come from Russia. I bet Nova, Molotov’s hacker, is behind this.”

  So, it’s likely not China.

  Eric nodded. “The hacker would need to connect to the satellite’s antenna from the ground, crack the encryption, defeat Odin’s cyber defensive systems, and leverage weaknesses in the satellite’s software in order to seize control of the unit. From there, the hacker would be able to disrupt, intercept, or modify all communications that pass through the antenna. The hacker might also decide to destroy the satellite with a cyber-physical attack.”

  “A cyber-physical attack?” Mike asked, pulling up his nose.

  “Such attacks exploit both physical and digital components,” Eric said. “Satellites run on solar power provided by physical systems like panels, electronics, batteries, etcetera. Once a hacker seizes control of the satellite, they could adjust the solar panels using digital controls to increase the power levels, blow out the batteries, and fry the satellite’s electronics. But this scenario is the least of my worries at this point.”

  Morgan’s eyes widened. “What could possibly be worse than that?”