The Beginning of Infinity
Page 7
Nor is the biosphere a great preserver of species. In addition to being notoriously cruel to individuals, evolution involves continual extinctions of entire species. The average rate of extinction since the beginning of life on Earth has been about ten species per year (the number is known only very approximately), becoming much higher during the relatively brief periods that palaeontologists call ‘mass extinction events’. The rate at which species have come into existence has on balance only slightly exceeded the extinction rate, and the net effect is that the overwhelming majority of species that have ever existed on Earth (perhaps 99.9 per cent of them) are now extinct. Genetic evidence suggests that our own species narrowly escaped extinction on at least one occasion. Several species closely related to ours did become extinct. Significantly, the ‘life-support system’ itself wiped them out – by means such as natural disasters, evolutionary changes in other species, and climate change. Those cousins of ours had not invited extinction by changing their lifestyles or overloading the biosphere: on the contrary, it wiped them out because they were living the lifestyles that they had evolved to live, and in which, according to the Spaceship Earth metaphor, the biosphere had been ‘supporting’ them.
Yet that still overstates the degree to which the biosphere is hospitable to humans in particular. The first people to live at the latitude of Oxford (who were actually from a species related to us, possibly the Neanderthals) could do so only because they brought knowledge with them, about such things as tools, weapons, fire and clothing. That knowledge was transmitted from generation to generation not genetically but culturally. Our pre-human ancestors in the Great Rift Valley used such knowledge too, and our own species must have come into existence already dependent on it for survival. As evidence of that, note that I would soon die if I tried to live in the Great Rift Valley in its primeval state: I do not have the requisite knowledge. Since then, there have been human populations who, for instance, knew how to survive in the Amazon jungle but not in the Arctic, and populations for whom it was the other way round. Therefore that knowledge was not part of their genetic inheritance. It was created by human thought, and preserved and transmitted in human culture.
Today, almost the entire capacity of the Earth’s ‘life-support system for humans’ has been provided not for us but by us, using our ability to create new knowledge. There are people in the Great Rift Valley today who live far more comfortably than early humans did, and in far greater numbers, through knowledge of things like tools, farming and hygiene. The Earth did provide the raw materials for our survival – just as the sun has provided the energy, and supernovae provided the elements, and so on. But a heap of raw materials is not the same thing as a life-support system. It takes knowledge to convert the one into the other, and biological evolution never provided us with enough knowledge to survive, let alone to thrive. In this respect we differ from almost all other species. They do have all the knowledge that they need, genetically encoded in their brains. And that knowledge was indeed provided for them by evolution – and so, in the relevant sense, ‘by the biosphere’. So their home environments do have the appearance of having been designed as life-support systems for them, albeit only in the desperately limited sense that I have described. But the biosphere no more provides humans with a life-support system than it provides us with radio telescopes.
So the biosphere is incapable of supporting human life. From the outset, it was only human knowledge that made the planet even marginally habitable by humans, and the enormously increased capacity of our life-support system since then (in terms both of numbers and of security and quality of life) has been entirely due to the creation of human knowledge. To the extent that we are on a ‘spaceship’, we have never been merely its passengers, nor (as is often said) its stewards, nor even its maintenance crew: we are its designers and builders. Before the designs created by humans, it was not a vehicle, but only a heap of dangerous raw materials.
The ‘passengers’ metaphor is a misconception in another sense too. It implies that there was a time when humans lived unproblematically: when they were provided for, like passengers, without themselves having to solve a stream of problems in order to survive and to thrive. But in fact, even with the benefit of their cultural knowledge, our ancestors continually faced desperate problems, such as where the next meal was coming from, and typically they barely solved these problems or they died. There are very few fossils of old people.
The moral component of the Spaceship Earth metaphor is therefore somewhat paradoxical. It casts humans as ungrateful for gifts which, in reality, they never received. And it casts all other species in morally positive roles in the spaceship’s life-support system, with humans as the only negative actors. But humans are part of the biosphere, and the supposedly immoral behaviour is identical to what all other species do when times are good – except that humans alone try to mitigate the effect of that response on their descendants and on other species.
The Principle of Mediocrity is paradoxical too. Since it singles out anthropocentrism for special opprobrium among all forms of parochial misconception, it is itself anthropocentric. Also, it claims that all value judgements are anthropocentric, yet it itself is often expressed in value-laden terminology, such as ‘arrogance’, ‘just scum’ and the very word ‘mediocrity’. With respect to whose values are those disparagements to be understood? Why is arrogance even relevant as a criticism? Also, even if holding an arrogant opinion is morally wrong, morality is supposed to refer only to the internal organization of chemical scum. So how can it tell us anything about how the world beyond the scum is organized, as the Principle of Mediocrity purports to do?
In any case, it was not arrogance that made people adopt anthropocentric explanations. It was merely a parochial error, and quite a reasonable one originally. Nor was it arrogance that prevented people from realizing their mistake for so long: they didn’t realize anything, because they did not know how to seek better explanations. In a sense their whole problem was that they were not arrogant enough: they assumed far too easily that the world was fundamentally incomprehensible to them.
The misconception that there was once an unproblematic era for humans is present in ancient myths of a past Golden Age, and of a Garden of Eden. The theological notions of grace (unearned benefit from God) and Providence (which is God regarded as the provider of human needs) are also related to this. In order to connect the supposed unproblematic past with their own less-than-pleasant experiences, the authors of such myths had to include some past transition, such as a Fall from Grace when Providence reduced its level of support. In the Spaceship Earth metaphor, the Fall from Grace is usually deemed to be imminent or under way.
The Principle of Mediocrity contains a similar misconception. Consider the following argument, which is due to the evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins: Human attributes, like those of all other organisms, evolved under natural selection in an ancestral environment. That is why our senses are adapted to detecting things like the colours and smell of fruit, or the sound of a predator: being able to detect such things gave our ancestors a better chance of surviving to have offspring. But, for the same reason, Dawkins points out, evolution did not waste our resources on detecting phenomena that were never relevant to our survival. We cannot, for instance, distinguish between the colours of most stars with the naked eye. Our night vision is poor and monochromatic because not enough of our ancestors died of that limitation to create evolutionary pressure for anything better. So Dawkins argues – and here he is invoking the Principle of Mediocrity – that there is no reason to expect our brains to be any different from our eyes in this regard: they evolved to cope with the narrow class of phenomena that commonly occur in the biosphere, on approximately human scales of size, time, energy and so on. Most phenomena in the universe happen far above or below those scales. Some would kill us instantly; others could never affect anything in the lives of early humans. So, just as our senses cannot detect neutrinos or quasars or most other significant phenom
ena in the cosmic scheme of things, there is no reason to expect our brains to understand them. To the extent that they already do understand them, we have been lucky – but a run of luck cannot be expected to continue for long. Hence Dawkins agrees with an earlier evolutionary biologist, John Haldane, who expected that ‘the universe is not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose.’
That is a startling – and paradoxical – consequence of the Principle of Mediocrity: it says that all human abilities, including the distinctive ones such as the ability to create new explanations, are necessarily parochial. That implies, in particular, that progress in science cannot exceed a certain limit defined by the biology of the human brain. And we must expect to reach that limit sooner rather than later. Beyond it, the world stops making sense (or seems to). The answer to the question that I asked at the end of Chapter 2 – whether the scientific revolution and the broader Enlightenment could be a beginning of infinity – would then be a resounding no. Science, for all its successes and aspirations, would turn out to be inherently parochial – and, ironically, anthropocentric.
So here the Principle of Mediocrity and Spaceship Earth converge. They share a conception of a tiny, human-friendly bubble embedded in the alien and uncooperative universe. The Spaceship Earth metaphor sees it as a physical bubble, the biosphere. For the Principle of Mediocrity, the bubble is primarily conceptual, marking the limits of the human capacity to understand the world. Those two bubbles are related, as we shall see. In both views, anthropocentrism is true in the interior of the bubble: there the world is unproblematic, uniquely compliant with human wishes and human understanding. Outside it there are only insoluble problems.
Dawkins would prefer it to be otherwise. As he wrote:
I believe that an orderly universe, one indifferent to human preoccupations, in which everything has an explanation even if we still have a long way to go before we find it, is a more beautiful, more wonderful place than a universe tricked out with capricious ad hoc magic.
Unweaving the Rainbow (1998)
An ‘orderly’ (explicable) universe is indeed more beautiful (see Chapter 14) – though the assumption that to be orderly it has to be ‘indifferent to human preoccupations’ is a misconception associated with the Principle of Mediocrity.
Any assumption that the world is inexplicable can lead only to extremely bad explanations. For an inexplicable world is indistinguishable from one ‘tricked out with capricious ad hoc magic’: by definition, no hypothesis about the world outside the bubble of explicability can be a better explanation than that Zeus rules there – or practically any myth or fantasy one likes.
Moreover, since the outside of the bubble affects our explanations of the inside (or else we may as well do without it), the inside is not really explicable either. It seems so only if we carefully refrain from asking certain questions. This bears an uncanny resemblance to the intellectual landscape before the Enlightenment, with its distinction between Earth and heaven. It is a paradox inherent in the Principle of Mediocrity: contrary to its motivation, here it is forcing us back to an archaic, anthropocentric, pre-scientific conception of the world.
At root, the Principle of Mediocrity and the Spaceship Earth metaphor overlap in a claim about reach: they both claim that the reach of the distinctively human way of being – that is to say, the way of problem-solving, knowledge-creating and adapting the world around us – is bounded. And they argue that its bounds cannot be very far beyond what it has already reached. Trying to go beyond that range must lead to failure and catastrophe respectively.
Both ideas also rely on essentially the same argument, namely that if there were no such limit, there would be no explanation for the continued effectiveness of the adaptations of the human brain beyond the conditions under which they evolved. Why should one adaptation out of the trillions that have ever existed on Earth have unlimited reach, when all others reach only inside the tiny, insignificant, untypical biosphere? Fair enough: all reach has an explanation. But what if there is an explanation, and what if it has nothing to do with evolution or the biosphere?
Imagine that a flock of birds from a species that evolved on one island happens to fly to another. Their wings and eyes still work. That is an example of the reach of those adaptations. It has an explanation, the essence of which is that wings and eyes exploit universal laws of physics (of aerodynamics and optics respectively). They exploit those laws only imperfectly; but the atmospheric and lighting conditions on the two islands are sufficiently similar, by the criteria defined by those laws, for the same adaptations to work on both.
Thus the birds may well be able to fly to an island many kilometres away horizontally, but if they were transported only a few kilometres upwards their wings would stop working because the density of the air would be too low. Their implicit knowledge about how to fly fails at high altitude. A little further up, their eyes and other organs would stop working. The design of these too does not have that much reach: all vertebrate eyes are filled with liquid water, but water freezes at stratospheric temperatures and boils in the vacuum of space. Less dramatically, the birds might also die if they merely had no good night vision and they reached an island where the only suitable prey organisms were nocturnal. For the same reason, biological adaptations also have limited reach in regard to changes in their home environment – which can and do cause extinctions.
If those birds’ adaptations do have enough reach to make the species viable on the new island, they will set up a colony there. In subsequent generations, mutants slightly better adapted to the new island will end up having slightly more offspring on average, so evolution will adapt the population more accurately to contain the knowledge needed to make a living there. The ancestor species of humans colonized new habitats and embarked on new lifestyles in exactly that way. But by the time our species had evolved, our fully human ancestors were achieving much the same thing thousands of times faster, by evolving their cultural knowledge instead. Because they did not yet know how to do science, their knowledge was only a little less parochial than biological knowledge. It consisted of rules of thumb. And so progress, though rapid compared to biological evolution, was sluggish compared to what the Enlightenment has accustomed us to.
Since the Enlightenment, technological progress has depended specifically on the creation of explanatory knowledge. People had dreamed for millennia of flying to the moon, but it was only with the advent of Newton’s theories about the behaviour of invisible entities such as forces and momentum that they began to understand what was needed in order to go there.
This increasingly intimate connection between explaining the world and controlling it is no accident, but is part of the deep structure of the world. Consider the set of all conceivable transformations of physical objects. Some of those (like faster-than-light communication) never happen because they are forbidden by laws of nature; some (like the formation of stars out of primordial hydrogen) happen spontaneously; and some (such as converting air and water into trees, or converting raw materials into a radio telescope) are possible, but happen only when the requisite knowledge is present – for instance, embodied in genes or brains. But those are the only possibilities. That is to say, every putative physical transformation, to be performed in a given time with given resources or under any other conditions, is either
– impossible because it is forbidden by the laws of nature; or
– achievable, given the right knowledge.
That momentous dichotomy exists because if there were transformations that technology could never achieve regardless of what knowledge was brought to bear, then this fact would itself be a testable regularity in nature. But all regularities in nature have explanations, so the explanation of that regularity would itself be a law of nature, or a consequence of one. And so, again, everything that is not forbidden by laws of nature is achievable, given the right knowledge.
This fundamental connection between explanatory knowledge and technology is wh
y the Haldane–Dawkins queerer-than-we-can-suppose argument is mistaken – why the reach of human adaptations does have a different character from that of all the other adaptations in the biosphere. The ability to create and use explanatory knowledge gives people a power to transform nature which is ultimately not limited by parochial factors, as all other adaptations are, but only by universal laws. This is the cosmic significance of explanatory knowledge – and hence of people, whom I shall henceforward define as entities that can create explanatory knowledge.
For every other species on Earth, we can determine its reach simply by making a list of all the resources and environmental conditions on which its adaptations depend. In principle one could determine those from a study of its DNA molecules – because that is where all its genetic information is encoded (in the form of sequences of small constituent molecules called ‘bases’). As Dawkins has pointed out:
A gene pool is carved and whittled through generations of ancestral natural selection to fit [a particular] environment. In theory a knowledgeable zoologist, presented with the complete transcript of a genome [the set of all the genes of an organism], should be able to reconstruct the environmental circumstances that did the carving. In this sense the DNA is a coded description of ancestral environments.
In Art Wolfe, The Living Wild, ed. Michelle A. Gilders (2000)
To be precise, the ‘knowledgeable zoologist’ would be able to reconstruct only those aspects of the organism’s ancestral environment that exerted selection pressure – such as the types of prey that existed there, what behaviours would catch them, what chemicals would digest them and so on. Those are all regularities in the environment. A genome contains coded descriptions of them, and hence implicitly specifies the environments in which the organism can survive. For example, all primates require vitamin C. Without it, they fall ill and die of the disease scurvy, but their genes do not contain the knowledge of how to synthesize it. So, whenever any non-human primate is in an environment that does not supply vitamin C for an extended period, it dies. Any account that overlooks this fact will overestimate the reach of those species. Humans are primates, yet their reach has nothing to do with which environments supply vitamin C. Humans can create and apply new knowledge of how to cause it to be synthesized from a wide range of raw materials, by agriculture or in chemical factories. And, just as essentially, humans can discover for themselves that, in most environments, they need to do that in order to survive.