Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won

by L. Jon Wertheim

  Inasmuch as writing a book is likened to childbirth, Scott Waxman, our agent, was first a capable midwife and then a fine pediatrician. We owe a debt of gratitude to a small army who contributed ideas, comments, anecdotes, interviews, and stories for the book: Mike Carey, Frank Cheng, Tomago Collins, Joshua Coval, Mark Cuban, Jessica Dosen, Welington Dotel, David Epstein, Eugene Fama, Tom Gilovich, Jeff Heckelman, John Huizinga, Kevin Kelley, Steven Levitt, Cade Massey, Mike McCoy, Jack Moore, Daryl Morey, Mike Morin, Natxo Palacios-Huerta, Jeff Pearlman, Tom Perrotta, Devin Pope, Gregg Popovich, Tom Ricketts, Ryan Rodenberg, Scott Rosner, Jeff Spielberger, Susan Szeliga, Richard Thaler, Shino Tsurubuchi, and Charles “Sandy” Weil.

  A special thank-you to Daniel Cervone, a University of Chicago undergrad so enamored with sports that he decided to spend a year between college and grad school helping us gather, organize, and analyze an absolutely massive amount of data. Good luck with your doctoral studies at Harvard—we suspect we’ll be hearing great things from you soon.

  Also, special thanks to Rebecca Sun, who challenged and improved our material with her sharp mind, sharp eye, and painstaking attention to detail. (Every author should inquire about her services.) So long as Sports Illustrated continues to attract talent of her caliber, it bodes well for the continued strength of the magazine.

  PERSONAL ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

  I owe a huge debt to my colleagues at the University of Chicago, my co-authors, and my thesis advisors from grad school at UCLA. Everything I’ve learned about economics and finance is owed to them. I am grateful to sit in the wonderful research environment at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. There is simply no better place for novel research and critical thinking. Many thanks to my co-author, L. Jon Wertheim—whom I first knew as Lewis—who is not only a brilliant writer and unconventional thinker, but a great friend. It’s been terrific catching up with him over the past two years. Finally, a heartfelt thanks to my wife, Bonnie, and to our children, Isaac, Josh, Sam, and little Sarah, who arrived right around chapter 10.

  —TJM

  I’m in arrears to Terry McDonell, Chris Hunt, and the other Sports Illustrated editors who could not have been more accommodating and supportive of this project. Warm thanks to my co-author, Tobias Moskowitz—whom I first knew as Toby—a first-rate thinker, economist, and analyst. He made a hell of a doubles partner on the Indiana junior tennis circuit, and a better one twenty years later on this project. Finally, my deepest thanks, as ever, are reserved for Ellie, Ben, and Allegra.

  —LJW

  BIBLIOGRAPHY

  A list of relevant papers and articles organized by chapter, with web links where possible.

  WHISTLE SWALLOWING

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  GO FOR IT

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  HOW COMPETITIVE ARE COMPETITIVE SPORTS?

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  THE VALUE OF A BLOCKED SHOT

  Huizinga, J. “The Value of a Blocked Shot in the NBA: From Dwight Howard to Tim Duncan.” MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, 2010.

  ROUNDING FIRST

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  THANKS, MR. ROONEY

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  SO, WHAT IS DRIVING THE HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE?

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  OFF THE CHART

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  HOW A COIN TOSS TRUMPS ALL

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  WHAT ISN’T IN THE MITCHELL REPORT?

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  DO ATHLETES REALLY MELT WHEN ICED?

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  THE MYTH OF THE HOT HAND

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