The Coming of Post-Industrial Society
Page 36
In the professional class, teachers make up the single largest group. The combined employment of public and private school teachers increased from about 1.3 million in the 1954-1955 school year to about 2.1 million in 1964-1965 and 2.8 million in 1970. Teachers comprised about 25 percent of all persons classified as professional and technical by the census. In the 1960 decade, half of all teachers were employed in elementary schools, more than a third in secondary schools, and about 20 percent in colleges and universities. The number of teachers is expected to rise by almost a third during the 1965-1975 decade, reaching almost 3 million in the 1974-1975 school year, but given the more rapid rise of other professional and technical groups, the proportion of teachers in this class will fall to about 20 percent.
Engineering is the second largest professional occupation, exceeded in size only by teaching, though for men it is the largest profession. Employment of engineers increased by more than 80 percent between 1950 and 1966, rising from an estimated 535,000 to about 1,000,000, the chief reason being the expansion in this period of the science-based industries such as electronics, space, missiles, scientific instruments, nuclear energy, and computer technology, and the longer time required to develop and produce products because of the increasing complexity of the production processes. About half of all engineers work in manufacturing, another quarter in construction, public utilities, and engineering services. A high number of engineers, about 150,000, are employed by the government, half of these by the federal government. Educational institutions employ about 35,000 engineers in research and teaching. The number of engineers is expected to rise by more than 50 percent between 1964 and 1975, to about 1.5 million; this group would then comprise more than 11 percent of the total professional and technical class.
Allied to the engineer is the engineering and science technician (excluding draftsmen and surveyors), whose numbers grew from 450,000 in 1960 to 650,000 in mid-1966, making up about 7 percent of all professional and technical workers. The number of engineering and science technicians is expected to rise by about two-thirds by 1975, bringing the total to more than a million.
The most crucial group in the knowledge society, of course, is scientists, and here the growth rate has been the most marked of all the professional groups. The number of engineers, for example, rose from 217,000 in 1930 to almost a million in 1964; in the same period, the number of scientists increased from 46,000 to 475,000. To put this growth in another context, whereas between 1930 and 1965 the work force increased by about 50 percent, the number of engineers increased by 370 percent, and that of scientists by 930 percent. By 1975, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of natural scientists will rise to 465,000 and the number of social scientists to 80,000.72 (See Table 3-2 and Figure 3-3.)
All this growth goes hand in hand with a democratization of higher education on a scale that the world has never seen before. No society has ever attempted to provide formal education for the bulk of its youth through age nineteen or twenty (the junior college level) or through age twenty-two, yet this has now become the explicit policy of the United States. Just as in the 1920s a decision was made to provide a secondary school education for every child in the country so, too, in the past two decades, the decision was made to provide a college education, or at least some years in college, for all capable youths in the country. At first this decision was made spontaneously through education for veterans, and then it spread through the various state systems as it became apparent that the new science-based industries would require more technically trained personnel. The change can be seen most graphically in Table 3-3, which shows the consistent rise in the proportion of the population aged eighteen to twenty-one attending college.
The table also shows a more rapid growth rate in the second decade than in the first. Total enrollments increased by 145 percent in the eighteen-year period 1946-1964 and by 104 percent during the last ten years of the period. Since 1964, the trend has continued upward. If one takes the data from the Digest of Education Statistics, then of the 18-19-year-old age group (the freshman age group), 46.3 percent of the group was in school in 1965, 47.6 percent in 1967, 50.4 percent in 1968, and 50.2 percent in 1969. It is expected that the 50-percent mark will be the norm for some time.
TABLE 3-2
Forecasts of Skilled Population and Scientific Personnel
SOURCE: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Reviews of National Science Policy: United States (Paris, 1968), p. 45.
a Based on 1964 data.
Another statistical series used by the OECD reporting team provides a more useful definition than simple enrollment. A series measuring the growth of resident students in degree courses allows the growth in the number of students to be measured over a longer period, from 1869 to the present. Table 3-4 illustrates the different stages in university expansion.
Since 1879, American university population has doubled every twenty years. But compared with the corresponding age group, a very fast growth became apparent after World War II and was even more accentuated during the 1950s. This evolution reflects not only the growth in college enrollments but also the growth of graduates as well, their number doubling since 1950, whereas the number of undergraduates increased by 50 percent over the same period. Thus, not only is the total number of enrollments growing, but the number of more advanced students is increasing more than proportionately.
FIGURE 3-3
Trend of the Population Structure, 1930-1975
SOURCE: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Reviews of National Science Policy: United States (Paris, 1968), p. 43.
TABLE 3-3
Total Student Body and Corresponding Age Groups, 1946-1964
SOURCE: OECD, Reviews of National Science Policy: United States, p.494.
TABLE 3-4
Student Population Studying for Degrees and
Corresponding Age Groups, 1869-1963
SOURCE: OECD, Reviews of National Science Policy: United States, p.52.
By the end of the decade, the number of college students had advanced extraordinarily, literally doubling from 1960 to 1970. The major increase came, because of the population bulge, by the end of the decade, in the undergraduate sector. If one looks at the gross picture, one sees this striking increase. (See Table 3-5.)
TABLE 3-5
Enrollment in Institutions of Higher Learning,
Aged 18-24, 1964-1910
SOURCE: Digest of Educational Statistics, Table 86, U.S.Office of Education, 1970.
The number of degrees has increased in proportion to the number of students, as shown in Table 3-6. Since 1947, the number of doctorates has tripled, the number of master’s degrees or the equivalent has been multiplied by 2.4, and the number of bachelor’s degrees or the equivalent by 1.8. By 1968, about 20 percent of the 22-year-old age group had completed a bachelor’s degree (as against 14 percent in 1956). The percentage of those receiving master’s degrees (at age 24) doubled from 3 to 6 percent of the age group, from 1956 to 1968, but the number of research doctorates, even though three times as great in 1970 as in 1960, still was about 1 percent of the 30-year-old age group in the United States.
If one breaks down the degrees by level and discipline, a startling fact is disclosed (Table 3—7). Both in 1954 and 1964 about 72 to 73 percent of the bachelors’ degrees were taken in the social sciences and the humanities, and only 26 to 28 percent in the natural sciences and mathematics. Yet the figures for doctorates are reversed sharply. In both periods, almost 50 percent of the doctorates were in the natural sciences and mathematics. This figure itself reflects two main factors: first, the average time in achieving a doctorate in the sciences is considerably shorter than in the social sciences and humanities; and second, the employment opportunities in the sciences are more sharply defined by the possession of a doctorate than in the other fields. To take some specific figures on earned degrees conferred in 1968 (the latest available), 120,668 bachelor’s degrees were taken i
n social science, but only 2,821 doctoral degrees; in the biological sciences, 31,826 students took bachelor’s degrees and 2,784 received doctoral degrees; while in the physical sciences, 19,380 students took bachelor’s degrees and 3,593 received doctorates! (U.S. Office of Education, “Earned Degrees Conferred, 1967-1968.”)
TABLE 3-6
Earned Degrees Conferred by Institutions of Higher Education,
1869-187O to 1963-1964
SOURCE: OECD, Reviews of National Science Policy: United States, p. 54. Digest of Educational Statistics, U.S. Office of Education, 1970.
NOTE: Beginning in 1959-60, includes Alaska and Hawaii.
SCIENTIFIC ELITE AND MASS
The chief resource of the post-industrial society is its scientific personnel. Their distribution, by sector (industry, government, university) and by function (production, research, teaching), forms the start of any coherent science policy on the use of scarce resources in the society.73 The definitions of such personnel are complicated, particularly in the case of engineers. Many persons are classified as engineers, especially in industry, who have not received formal training or do not possess a degree from a college; on the other hand, because of their training, many engineers are engaged in managerial activities outside their original specialization. The restrictions are less true of scientists, though some number in recent years have turned to administration and educational innovation, In general, scientific personnel is defined as persons engaging in any scientific work requiring knowledge or training equivalent to at least four years of college and specializing in one of the scientific disciplines. A similar definition applies to engineers.
TABLE 3-7
Distribution of Degrees by Discipline, 1954-1964 (Percentages)
SOURCE: OECD, Reviews of National Science Policy: United States, p. 56.
We draw our first classification from the census. For 1960, the census of skilled personnel showed that there were 335,000 scientists and 822,000 engineers.74
We can show three basic classifications: by discipline, by sector, and by function, and, following this, by specialty and function in industry, in universities, and in government.
Figure 3-4 shows the distribution of engineers and scientists by discipline. It is striking that while the distribution of engineers is fairly even throughout the four major components of engineering (industrial, civil, electrical, and mechanical), the greater proportion of scientists is concentrated in two fields—the biological sciences and chemistry.
FIGURE 3-4
Distribution of Scientists and Engineers in 1960
SOURCE: OECD, Reviews of National Science Policy: United States, p. 207.
NOTE: Later figures show some slight change in proportions.
For engineers, figures cited for 1966 by the U.S. Department of Labor Bulletin 1606 (February 1969) show the following distribution: electrical, 20 percent; mechanical, 20 percent; civil, 20 percent; industrial, 11 percent; aeronautical, 6 percent; chemical, 5 percent.
As for scientists, a sampling by the National Science Foundation for 1970 (NSF 70-50) shows: chemists, 28 percent; physicists, 12 percent; mathematicians, 8 percent (plus 4 percent in computer sciences); biological and agricultural, 20 percent (excluding medical); earth and marine, 8 percent; atmosphere and space, 2 percent; other, 22 percent.
Table 3-8 shows the distribution of engineers and scientists by sector. Most engineers are still located primarily in manufacturing and secondarily in government; and while the single largest group of scientists is located in manufacturing, the universities and government combined employ the greater number.
If one takes the elite group and looks at the distribution of science and engineering doctorates by sector and area, one sees a heavy emphasis on the academic and research side and a concentration in the sciences. (See Tables 3-9, 3-10, and 3-11.)
TABLE 3-8
Distribution of Scientists and Engineers by Sector, 1960
SOURCE: OECD, Reviews of National Science Policy: United States, p. 208.
TABLE 3-9
Utilization of Science and Engineering
Doctorates by Sector, 1969
SECTOR PERCENTAGE
Academic 60
Private industry 26
Government 9
Other 5
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Doctorates, Supply and Utilization (NSF 71-20), May, 1971.
TABLE 3-10
Utilization of Science
and Engineering Doctorates
in Non-Academic Sector, 1969
SECTOR PERCENTAGE
Research and Development 76
Other activities 24
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Doctorates, Supply and Utilization.
TABLE 3-11
Distribution of Science
and Engineering Doctorates
by Field of Science, 1969
FIELD PERCENTAGE
Physical science 32
Life sciences 25
Mathematics 6
Engineering 15
Social sciences 22
SOURCE: National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Doctorates, Supply and Utilization.
To illustrate the importance of the science-based industries, note the proportion of scientists and engineers to the total employment in each field. For 1962, the percentages were as follows: 75
Manufacturing
3.0%
All chemicals
10.2%
Pharmaceuticals
16.9%
Electrical engineering
7.8%
Communications
12.3%
Aviation
12.4%
Scientific instruments
17.7%
The crucial question, of course, is what use is made of scientific personnel in each sector. The question, for example, of how many scientists are engaged in basic research compared to applied research (assuming one can draw these lines) can only be answered for smaller, more detailed samples. On the gross census level, we can deal with three main functions: production, research and development, and management and administration. All other functions, including teaching, are grouped as miscellaneous (Table 3-1 2).
A further classification of function by industry, university, and government is necessary to see the existing use of scientists and engineers.
Table 3-13 shows the distribution specialty and function of scientists and engineers employed in industry. Thirty percent of the total in industry are engaged in research and development. But 72.1 percent of the physicists and almost half of the mathematicians and biologists are engaged in research. Yet the number of scientists doing work other than research is far from negligible. By the same token, half the mathematicians and half the chemists in industry are doing something far different from research.
TABLE 3-12
Distribution of Scientists and Engineers by Function, 1960 (Percentages)
SOURCE: OECD, Reviews of National Policy: United States, p. 210.
Table 3-14 on universities uses a different set of figures. The data here are for 1965 and show that in that year higher education as a whole employed 261,000 scientists and engineers or more than twice the number employed in 1960 (see Table 3-8). The figures differ in part because of different counting techniques; that is, the 1960 figure was staff, while the 1965 figure included all persons employed at research centers in universities. Despite these differences, the figures reflect the sharp increase in half a decade in the number of scientists and engineers at universities. In 1965, in full-time equivalent, 61 percent of the personnel were engaged in teaching, 29 percent in research and development, and 10 percent in other activities (administration, etc.) Nearly all the personnel in the federal contract research centers attached to universities were doing research work, while only 29 percent of the 192,600 scientists and engineers who make up the university full-time personnel performed research as their major activity.
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sp; Finally we turn to the distribution of scientists and engineers employed in government. In 1962, approximately 144,000 scientists and engineers were employed by the government in federal laboratories or in administrative functions, representing 8 percent of federal employees. The Department of Defense employed the largest proportion of qualified persons, followed, surprisingly, by the Department of Agriculture. It is highly likely that later figures would show a considerable increase in the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, reflecting the expansion of research in medicine and the life sciences in the past decade. In addition to direct government employment, one must count as well a total of 17,884 scientists and engineers employed (in 1965) in nonprofit organizations.
TABLE 3-13
Proportions of Scientists and Engineers Employed in Industry by Specialty
and Principal Function, 1962