The End of Power

by Naim, Moises

  32. Pharr and Putnam, Disaffected Democracies: What’s Troubling the Trilateral Countries. For a discussion of this issue as it applies to the United States, see also Mann and Ornstein, It’s Even Worse Than It Looks: How the American Constitutional System Collided with the New Politics of Extremism.

  33. Mathews, “Saving America.”

  34. For Gallup survey data on public confidence in sixteen institutions between 1936 and 2012, see http://www.gallup.com/poll/1597/Confidence-Institutions.aspx?utm_source=email-a-friend&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=sharing&utm_content=morelink. For Gallup survey data on labor unions, see http://www.gallup.com/poll/12751/Labor-Unions.aspx?utm_source=email-a-friend&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=sharing&utm_content=morelink. For Gallup survey data on Congress, see http://www.gallup.com/poll/1600/Congress-Public.aspx?utm_source=email-a-friend&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=sharing&utm_content=morelink. And for Gallup survey data on government, see http://www.gallup.com/poll/27286/Government.aspx?utm_source=email-a-friend&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=sharing&utm_content=morelink.

  35. “Americans’ Approval of the Supreme Court is Down in a New Poll,” New York Times, June 8, 2012.

  36. Pew Global’s Web address is http://www.pewglobal.org/.

  37. Norris, Critical Citizens: Global Support for Democratic Government.

  38. “European Commission,” Eurobarometer, http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb76/eb76_first_en.pdf.

  39. Shelley Singh, “India Accounts for 51% of Global IT-BPO Outsourcing: Survey,” Times of India, April 28, 2012, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/news/outsourcing/India-accounts-for-51-of-global-IT-BPO-outsourcing-Survey/articleshow/12909972.cms.

  40. Nadeem, Dead Ringers: How Outsourcing Is Changing the Way Indians Understand Themselves.

  41. Dhar, “More Indian Women Postponing Motherhood.”

  42. Schumpeter, “The Historical Approach to the Analysis of Business Cycles,” in Essays: On Entrepreneurs, Innovations, Business Cycles, and the Evolution of Capitalism, p. 349.

  CHAPTER FIVE

  1. This passage was originally part of a speech given at Munich University in 1918. See Weber, Essays in Sociology, p. 78.

  2. Ronald Brownstein, “The Age of Volatility,” The National Journal, October 29, 2011.

  3. Interview with Minxin Pei, Washington, DC, June 2012.

  4. Interview with Lena Hjelm-Wallén, Brussels, May 2011.

  5. Tiririca, quoted in “Ex-clown Elected to Brazil Congress Must Prove He Can Read and Write,” November 11, 2010, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-10-05/brazilian-clown-elected-to-congress/2285224.

  6. Beppe Severgnini, “The Chirruping Allure of Italy’s Jiminy Cricket,” Financial Times, June 4, 2012.

  7. Greg Sargent, “Sharron Angle Floated Possibility of Armed Insurrection,” Washington Post, June 15, 2010, http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/06/sharron_angle_floated_possibil.html.

  8. This figure is quoted from Matt Golder, “Democratic Electoral Systems Around the World, 1946–2000,” Electoral Studies (2004), https://files.nyu.edu/mrg217/public/es_long.pdf. In the same publication, see also Figures 5.1 and 5.2, which show the proliferation of sovereign states, the decline of dictatorships, and the rise of democracies.

  9. See Marshall et al., “Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2010” (2010), Polity IV Project, available online at http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm.

  10. Larry Diamond, “The Democratic Rollback,” Foreign Affairs, March-April 2008; see also Larry Diamond, “Can the Whole World Become Democratic? Democracy, Development and International Politics,” PhD thesis, University of California at Irvine, April 17, 2003.

  11. Golder, “Democratic Electoral Systems Around the World, 1946–2000.” As of 2004, Golder had identified Brunei and the United Arab Emirates, both of which held parliamentary elections in 2011. The Election Guide website run by IFES has no record of elections in Brunei.

  12. Dalton and Gray, “Expanding the Electoral Marketplace.”

  13. Golder, “Democratic Electoral Systems Around the World, 1946–2000.”

  14. Interview with Bill Sweeney, Washington, DC, June 2012.

  15. This figure is based on my own calculations.

  16. For a statistical analysis and more details, see the appendix to this chapter at the end of the book.

  17. In prior elections, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Warren Harding won the presidency with a larger margin than Ronald Reagan’s in 1984.

  18. Updated information is available in BBC News, “Belgium Swears in New Government Headed by Elio Di Rupo,” December 6, 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16042750.

  19. Narud and Valen, “Coalition Membership and Electoral Performance.”

  20. Damgaard, “Cabinet Termination.”

  21. Wil Longbottom, “Shiver Me Timbers! Pirate Party Wins 15 Seats in Berlin Parliamentary Elections,” Daily Mail, September 19, 2011, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2039073/Pirate-Party-wins-15-seats-Berlin-parliamentary-elections.html.

  22. Richard Chirgwin, “Pirate Party Takes Mayor’s Chair in Swiss City: Welcome to Eichberg, Pirate Politics Capital of the World,” The Register (UK), September 23, 2012, http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/09/23/pirate_wins_eichberg_election/.

  23. The concept of the “selectorate” is from Bueno de Mesquita et al., The Logic of Political Survival.

  24. Kenig, “The Democratization of Party Leaders’ Selection Methods: Canada in Comparative Perspective.”

  25. Carey and Polga-Hecimovich, “Primary Elections and Candidate Strength in Latin America.”

  26. Joel M. Gora, quoted in Eggen, “Financing Comes Full Circle After Watergate.”

  27. Kane, “Super PAC Targets Incumbents of Any Stripe,”

  28. Blake, “Anti-Incumbent Super PAC’s Funds Dry Up.”

  29. See Ansell and Gingrich, “Trends in Decentralization.”

  30. Stein, “Fiscal Decentralization and Government Size in Latin America.”

  31. Aristovnik, “Fiscal Decentralization in Eastern Europe: A Twenty-Year Perspective.”

  32. Stephen J. Kobrin, “Back to the Future: Neo-medievalism and the Post-modern Digital World Economy,” Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 51, No. 2 (Spring 1998): 361–386.

  33. Pilling, “India’s Bumble Bee Defies Gravity.”

  34. Goldstein and Rotich, “Digitally Networked Technology in Kenya’s 2007–2008 Post-Election Crisis.”

  35. Niknejad, “How to Cover a Paranoid Regime from Your Laptop.”

  36. Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree, pp. 101–111; emphasis added.

  37. Elinor Mills, “Old-Time Hacktivists: Anonymous, You’ve Crossed the Line,” CNet, March 30, 2012, http://news.cnet.com/8301–27080_3–57406793–245/old-time-hacktivists-anonymous-youve-crossed-the-line.

  38. Diamond and Plattner, Liberation Technology: Social Media and the Struggle for Democracy, p. xi.

  39. Interview with Lena Hjelm-Wallén, Brussels, May 2011.

  40. Interview with Ricardo Lagos, Santiago, November 2012.

  CHAPTER SIX

  1. Shan Carter and Amanda Cox, “One 9/11 Tally: $3.3 Trillion,” New York Times, September 8, 2011; Tim Fernholtz and Jim Tankersley, “The Cost of bin Laden: $3 Trillion over 15 Years,” National Journal, May 6, 2011.

  2. “Soldier Killed, 3 Missing After Navy Vessel Hit Off Beirut Coast,” Haaretz, June 15, 2006.

  3. One Earth Future Foundation, The Economic Cost of Somali Piracy, 2011 (Boulder, CO: 2012).

  4. John Arquilla, Insurgents, Raiders and Bandits: How Masters of Irregular Warfare Have Shaped Our World, pp. xv–xvi.

  5. Runyon, On Broadway, p. 87.

  6. As quoted by Winston Churchill in The Second World War, p. 105.

  7. “United States Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2012 Budget Request,” February 2012, http://comptroller.defense.gov/defbudget/fy2012/FY2012_Budget_Request_Overview_Book.pdf.

 
; 8. Edward Luce, “The Mirage of Obama’s Defense Cuts,” Financial Times, January 30, 2012.

  9. All of the investments made in military hardware under the Reagan administration will phase out over the 2010s and 2020s. Some in the Navy are arguing against carriers; if this position wins the debate, the United States might have less than eleven carriers in a decade or two.

  10. Human Security Report Project (HSRP), Human Security Report 2009/2010: The Causes of Peace and The Shrinking Costs of War, December 2, 2010, http://www.hsrgroup.org/human-security-reports/20092010/overview.aspx.

  11. Ibid.

  12. Ibid.

  13. The event described in the text (based on “Amputations Soared Among US Troops in 2011,” http://news.antiwar.com/2012/02/09/amputations-soared-among-us-troops-in-2011/) is backed up by this particular chart from Pentagon: http://timemilitary.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/amp-chart.png. The IED casualty figure comes from the Brookings Afghanistan index.

  14. ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB), Piracy & Armed Robbery News & Figures, http://www.icc-ccs.org/piracy-reporting-centre/piracynewsafigures.

  15. Damon Poeter, “Report: Massive Chamber of Commerce Hack Originated in China,” PC Magazine, December 21, 2011, http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2397920,00.asp.

  16. Ann Scott Tyson, “US to Raise ‘Irregular War’ Capabilities,” Washington Post, December 4, 2008; US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review, February 2010, http://www.defense.gov/qdr/.

  17. Thomas Mahnken, quoted in Andrew Burt, “America’s Waning Military Edge,” Yale Journal of International Affairs, March 2012, http://yalejournal.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Op-ed-Andrew-Burt.pdf.

  18. Mao Zedong, “The Relation of Guerrilla Hostilities to Regular Operations,” http://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/mao/works/1937/guerrilla-warfare/ch01.htm.

  19. Global Security, “Second Chechnya War—1999–2006,” http://www.global security.org/military/world/war/chechnya2.htm.

  20. William Lynn, quoted in Burt, “America’s Waning Military Edge.”

  21. Ivan Arreguín-Toft, “How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict,” International Security 26, no. 1 (2001): 93–128; Ivan Arreguín-Toft, “How a Superpower Can End Up Losing to the Little Guys,” Nieman Watchdog, March 23, 2007, www.niemanwatchdog.org.

  22. Marc Hecker and Thomas Rid, “Jihadistes de tous les pays, dispersez-vous,” Politique Internationale 123 (2009): fn 1.

  23. John Arquilla, “The New Rules of Engagement,” Foreign Policy, February–March 2010.

  24. Rod Nordland, “War’s Risks Shift to Contractors,” New York Times, February 12, 2012.

  25. Singer, Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the Twenty-First Century, p. 18.

  26. Lind et al., “The Changing Face of War.”

  27. Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, “A New Kind of War,” Foreign Policy, January 20, 2010.

  28. Singer, Wired for War.

  29. Sutherland, Modern Warfare, Intelligence and Deterrence, p. 101.

  30. Scott Wilson, “Drones Cast a Pall of Fear,” Washington Post, December 4, 2011.

  31. Francis Fukuyama, “The End of Mystery: Why We All Need a Drone of Our Own,” Financial Times, February 25, 2012.

  32. Christian Caryl, “America’s IED Nightmare,” Foreign Policy, December 4, 2009; Thom Shanker, “Makeshift Bombs Spread Beyond Afghanistan, Iraq,” New York Times, October 29, 2009.

  33. Tom Vanden Brook, “IED Attacks in Afghanistan Set Record,” USA Today, January 25, 2012, http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012–01–25/IEDs-afghanistan/52795302/1.

  34. Jarret Brachman, “Al Qaeda’s Armies of One,” Foreign Policy, January 22, 2010; Reuel Marc Gerecht, “The Meaning of Al Qaeda’s Double Agent,” Wall Street Journal, January 7, 2010.

  35. Amos Yadlin, quoted in Amir Oren, “IDF Dependence on Technology Spawns Whole New Battlefield,” Haaretz, January 3, 2010.

  36. Kaplan, The Coming Anarchy: Shattering the Dreams of the Post–Cold War.

  37. Chua, World on Fire: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability.

  38. Hecker and Rid, War 2.0: Irregular Warfare in the Information Age.

  39. Ann Scott Tyson, “New Pentagon Policy Says ‘Irregular Warfare’ Will Get Same Attention as Traditional Combat,” Washington Post, December 4, 2008.

  40. Tony Capaccio, “Pentagon Bolstering Commandos After Success in Killing Bin Laden,” Bloomberg News, February 9, 2012.

  41. “The Changing Character of War,” ch. 7 in Institute for National Strategic Studies, Global Strategic Assessment 2009, p. 148.

  42. David E. Johnson et al., “Preparing and Training for the Full Spectrum of Military Challenges: Insights from the Experience of China, France, the United Kingdom, India and Israel,” National Defense Research Institute, 2009.

  43. John Arquilla interview in “Cyber War!,” Frontline, April 24, 2003, www.pbs.org.

  44. Amir Oren, “IDF Dependence on Technology Spawns Whole New Battlefield,” Haaretz, January 3, 2010.

  45. John Arquilla, “The New Rules of Engagement,” Foreign Policy, February–March 2010.

  46. Joseph S. Nye, Jr., “Is Military Power Becoming Obsolete?” Project Syndicate, January 13, 2010.

  47. “Q and A: Mexico’s Drug-Related Violence,” BBC News, March 30, 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-10681249.

  48. Thomas Rid, “Cracks in the Jihad,” The Wilson Quarterly, Winter 2010.

  49. Hecker and Rid, “Jihadistes de tous les pays, dispersez-vous!”

  CHAPTER SEVEN

  1. Peter Hartcher, “Tipping Point from West to Rest Just Passed,” Sidney Morning Herald, April 17, 2012.

  2. Comments to Hartcher’s column dated April 17, 2012.

  3. “Secret US Embassy Cables Revealed,” Al Jazeera, November 29, 2010.

  4. Interview with Jessica Mathews, Washington, September 2012.

  5. Interview with Zbigniew Brzezinski, Washington, May 2012.

  6. Murphy, Are We Rome? The Fall of an Empire and the Fate of America.

  7. “Bin-Laden’s Death One of Top News Stories of 21th Century,” Global Language Monitor, May 6, 2011, http://www.languagemonitor.com/top-news/binladens-death-one-of-top-news-stories-of-21th-century/.

  8. Robert Fogel, “123,000,000,000,000,” Foreign Policy, January–February 2010; see also Dadush, Juggernaut.

  9. Joe Leahy and Stefan Wagstyl, “Brazil Becomes Sixth Biggest Economy,” Financial Times, March 7, 2012, p. 4.

  10. Kindleberger, The World in Depression, 1929–1939; see also Milner, “International Political Economy: Beyond Hegemonic Stability,” Foreign Policy, Spring 1998.

  11. William C. Wohlforth, “The Stability of a Unipolar World,” International Security 24, no. 1 (1999): 5–41.

  12. See Nye, Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power, and Nye, Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. In 2011, Nye published another book on the subject titled The Future of Power.

  13. Patrick, “Multilateralism and Its Discontents: The Causes and Consequences of U.S. Ambivalence.”

  14. United States Department of State, Treaties in Force: A List of Treaties and Other International Agreements of the United States in Force on January 1, 2012.

  15. Peter Liberman, “What to Read on American Primacy,” Foreign Affairs, March 12, 2009; see also Stephen Brooks and WilliamWohlforth, “Hard Times for Soft Balancing,” International Security 30, no. 1 (Summer 2005): 72–108.

  16. Ferguson, Colossus.

  17. Robert Kagan, “The End of the End of History,” New Republic, April 23, 2008.

  18. Robert A. Pape, “Soft Balancing Against the United States,” International Security 30, no. 1 (Summer 2005): 7–45; on soft balancing, see also Stephen Brooks and William Wohlforth, “Hard Times for Soft Balancing,” International Security 30, no. 1 (Summer 2005): 72–108.

  19. Zakaria, The Post-American World.

  20. Randall L. Schwe
ller, “Ennui Becomes Us,” The National Interest, January–February 2010.

  21. Douglas M. Gibler, International Military Alliances from 1648 to 2008.

  22. On the ISAF, see Anna Mulrine, “In Afghanistan, the NATO-led Force Is ‘Underresourced’ for the Fight Against the Taliban: When It Comes to Combat, It Is a Coalition of the Willing and Not-So-Willing,” U.S. News, June 5, 2008.

  23. “Spanish Court says Venezuela Helped ETA, FARC,” Reuters, March 1, 2010.

  24. “Small Arms Report by the UN Secretary General, 2011,” http://www.iansa.org/resource/2011/04/small-arms-report-by-the-un-secretary-general-2011.

  25. For data on India and Brazil, see “Aid Architecture: An Overview of the Main Trends in Official Development Assistance Flows,” World Bank, May 2008.

  26. Homi Kharas, “Development Assistance in the 21st Century”; see also Waltz and Ramachandran, “Brave New World: A Literature Review of Emerging Donors and the Changing Nature of Foreign Assistance.”

  27. Kharas, “Development Assistance in the 21st Century.”

  28. Ibid.

  29. “Aid Architecture: An Overview of the Main Trends in Official Development Assistance Flows”; see also Homi Kharas, “Trends and Issues in Development Aid.”

  30. The sources for the data on south-south investment can be found in Chapter 8.

  31. For further information about the Pew Global Attitudes Project, see http://www.pewglobal.org/.

  32. Kathrin Hille, “Beijing Makes Voice Heard in US,” Financial Times, February 14, 2012.

  33. Joshua Kurlantzick, “China’s Charm: Implications of Chinese Soft Power,” CEIP Policy Brief No. 47, June 2006; Kurlantzick, “Chinese Soft Power in Southeast Asia,” The Globalist, July 7, 2007; Loro Horta, “China in Africa: Soft Power, Hard Results,” Yale Global Online, November 13, 2009; Joshua Eisenman and Joshua Kurlantzick, “China’s Africa Strategy,” Current History, May 2006.

  34. Tharoor, “India’s Bollywood Power”; see also Tharoor, “Indian Strategic Power: ‘Soft.’”

  35. “India Projecting Its Soft Power Globally: ICCR Chief,” Deccan Herald (New Delhi), October 7, 2011.