Paul Collier - Wars, Guns, and Votes

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  Governance. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2004.

  Azar Gat. War in Human Civilization. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006.

  Patrick Geary. The Myth of Nations: The Medieval Origins of Europe.

  Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2002.

  Philip Killicoat. “Cheap Guns, More War? The Economics of Small

  Arms.” M.Phil. economics thesis, University of Oxford, 2006.

  Mwangi Kimenyi and Njuguna Ndung’u. “Sporadic Ethnic Violence:

  Why Has Kenya Not Experienced a Full-Blown Civil War?” In

  Understanding Civil War (Volume 1: Africa), edited by Paul Collier

  and Nicholas Sambanis. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2005,

  123–156.

  Edward Miguel. “Tribe or Nation? Nation-Building and Public

  Goods in Kenya Versus Tanzania.” World Politics 56, no. 3 (2004):

  327–362.

  Colin Renfrew. Prehistory: The Making of the Human Mind. London:

  Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 2007.

  I N D E X

  Abacha, Sani, 35, 161

  federation and ethnic diversity

  Abkhazia, 185

  in, 197–98

  accountability

  French provision of security in,

  government provision of, 229–30

  86–87, 89, 99

  international intervention and,

  international standards proposal

  189–91

  and, 211–12

  nation building and, 173–76,

  price and movement of guns in,

  179–82, 186–87

  115–17

  political violence and, 18–24,

  risk of coups in, 147

  46–47

  African Peer Review Mechanism,

  proposal for enforcing probity in

  194–95

  public spending, 213–18

  African Union, 223

  proposal for harnessing violence,

  Afrobarometer, 38–39, 68, 178

  202–12

  aid. See also international interven -

  Action Aid, 38–39

  tion

  Adam, Chris, 90

  to Cote d’Ivoire, 111, 155, 158,

  Afghanistan, 48, 139

  164–65

  Africa. See also specific countries

  effect on military spending,

  coups in, 8

  110–12, 113–14, 119

  decolonization and, 172–73,

  prediction of coups and, 148

  178–79

  AIDS, 138–39, 183

  ethnic politics and economic

  Al Qaida, 139

  progress in, 64–66

  Alesina, Alberto, 63

  246

  Index

  Amin, Idi, 183

  Brown, Gordon, 226

  Andom, Aman, 145, 147

  Burkina Faso, 156, 162, 164, 165

  Angola

  Burundi, 3, 78, 193

  civil war and, 124, 126, 128

  Bush, George W., 169, 234

  elections and, 16

  military spending and, 185

  Canada, 186

  post-conflict settlements and, 80–81 capital, flight of during post-settle-

  security provision and, 223

  ment inflation, 91–92

  Arias, Oscar, 104

  Carter, Jimmy, 17

  arms embargoes, 117–119, 164

  Caselli, Francesco, 127

  Arrow, Ken, 94

  Castro, Fidel, 183

  autocracies

  Chad

  elections and, 16–18, 23–40

  civil war in, 87

  ethnic politics and, 61–66

  elections and, 17

  overthrow of, 15–16

  term limits and, 150

  taxation and power in, 179–82

  Chauvet, Lisa, 41–43, 222

  Chavez, Hugo, 114

  Barr, Abigail, 58–59

  Chiluba, Frederick, 17

  Bates, Robert, 64

  China, 21, 62

  battle-related deaths, decline in, 4–5 Chirac, Jacques, 86

  Bédié, Henri Konan, 158–60, 165–66

  civil wars, 121–40. See also coups

  Behar, Alberto, 222

  d’état

  Belarus, 164

  economic costs of, 137–39

  Belgium, 186, 192

  economic development and,

  Bemba, Jean-Pierre, 85

  125–28

  Benin, 25, 56

  feasibility hypothesis and, 132–37

  Besley, Tim

  as future of conflict, 121–22

  civil wars, 128

  methodology of study of,

  elections, 24–25, 27, 28

  122–25

  ethnic politics, 65–66

  military spending and, 108

  Blair, Tony, 226

  predictability of, 128–32

  Botswana, 142

  prevention of, 139–40

  bottom billion

  Clemens, Michael, 184

  income thresholds in, 21

  Cold War

  list of countries in, 239–40

  civil wars during, 128–29

  bribery, as election strategy, 31–33,

  military spending after, 106

  38–39

  swings of strategy after, 233–34

  Index

  247

  colonialism

  Cuba, 183

  civil war and, 128

  Darfur, 134–35

  decolonization of Africa and,

  Davies, Victor, 89–90, 92

  172–173, 178–179

  debt, nation building and account -

  Compaoré, Blaise, 162, 165

  ability, 174–75

  Congo. See Democratic Republic of Deby, Idriss, 17

  the Congo

  DellaVigna, Stefano, 117–18

  Copenhagen Consensus, 97

  democracy. See also elections

  corruption, autocratic leaders and,

  power, violence, and universal

  27

  values, 1–11

  Costa Rica, 132

  prediction of coups and, 146

  Cote d’Ivoire, 8, 155–66

  Democratic Republic of the Congo

  aid to, 111, 155, 158, 164–165

  elections and, 48

  arms embargoes and, 117, 164

  natural resources and civil war

  coups in, 159–66

  in, 126

  economic policies of, 156–57

  post-conflict settlements and,

  elections in, 158–63, 165

  75–76, 82–83, 85, 98

  natural resources of, 156–57, 166

  post-conflict settlements and

  politics in, 157–58

  national sovereignty,

  post-conflict settlements and, 86,

  223–24

  164–65

  public goods and, 191

  Country Policy and Institutional

  security provision and, 223

  Assessment, of World Bank,

  war and, 7

  41, 153

  democrazy, 15–18

  coups d’état, 7–8, 141–54. See also

  Derg regime, 16

  civil wars

  deterrence, military spending and,

  in Cote d’Ivoire, 159–66

  112–13

  economic costs of, 142–44

  dictatorships. See autocracies

  military spending and, 109

  Diouf, Abdou, 208

  predictors of, 145–52

  Dixit, Avinash, 230

  proposal for international inter-

  Doe, Samuel, 142

  vention to restore legitimate

  Doyle, Michael, 83–84, 88

  governments after, 202–12

  Duponchel, Marguerite, 90, 92–95
r />   to replace dysfunctional govern-

  ment, 144–45

  East Timor

  as restraints on governments, 144

  civil war and, 128

  results of, 152–154

  elections and, 17

  248

  Index

  East Timor ( cont.)

  proposal for harnessing violence

  national sovereignty and, 131,

  for democracy, 202–12

  200–201

  strategies for winning, 23–40

  post-conflict settlements and,

  El-Rufai, Nasir, 40

  78–79

  Epstein, Helen, 183

  Economic Community of West Af -

  Eritrea

  rican States (ECOWAS), 164

  Ethiopia and, 177

  economic policies. See also income

  national sovereignty and, 131,

  levels

  223

  civil wars and, 125–28

  People’s Liberation Front of, 130

  costs of coups and, 142–44

  post-conflict settlements and, 78

  of Cote d’Ivoire, 156–57

  Ethiopia

  elections and, 25–26, 41–44

  aid and, 111

  nation building and, 170–71,

  civil war and, 128, 144–45

  173–76

  Derg regime, 16

  post-conflict settlements and,

  Eritrea and, 177

  87–89

  ethnic politics, 51–73

  post-conflict settlements and aid

  autocrats and, 61–66

  needs, 89–95

  checks and balances and, 57–58

  education, ethnic politics and, 59, 67

  civil war and, 129–130

  elections, 15–50

  elections and, 26, 55–57

  accountability, legitimacy, and

  federation and, 196–198

  political violence, 18–24, 46–47

  nation building and, 169–70, 175,

  in Cote d’Ivoire, 158–163, 165

  178–79

  democratic values and, 5–11

  national identity and, 66–73

  democrazy and, 15–18

  origins of, 52–53

  ethnic politics and, 55–57

  prediction of coups and, 147

  income levels and political vio -

  private-sector productivity and,

  lence, 20–23

  59–61

  international approaches to,

  public services and, 58–59

  47–50

  scapegoating of minorities as

  policy and governance choices,

  election strategy, 30

  40–46

  societal obligations and, 53–55

  post–Cold War shift away from

  Etteh, Patricia, 57–58

  violence and, 2

  European Community, 192, 232

  post-conflict settlements and,

  European Union, 192, 195

  79–83, 89

  expressive voting, 56–57

  Index

  249

  external security threats, military

  health issues

  spending and, 104–8

  AIDS, 138–39, 183

  Eyadéma, Gnassingbe, 148

  civil wars and, 138–39

  Ezekwesili, Oby, 45, 54

  Hegre, Havard, 113

  Herodotus, 23–24

  Fearon, James, 22

  history, predictability of civil wars

  feasibility hypothesis, for civil wars,

  and, 128–29

  132–37

  Hoeffler, Anke

  federation, international interven -

  civil wars, 122–23, 127, 128

  tion and, 196–98

  coups, 142

  Ferguson, Niall, 129

  military spending, 104, 108,

  Forces Nouvelles (FN), in Cote

  113

  d’Ivoire, 163–65

  post-conflict settlements, 79, 89,

  France

  91

  aid to Cote d’Ivoire, 111

  security provision, 222

  provision of security in Africa

  Houphouët-Boigny, Félix, 155–57

  and, 86–87, 89, 99

  Hussein, Saddam, 24, 62

  hyperinflation

  Gambia, 145

  nation building and, 180

  Gat, Azar, 126

  post-conflict settlements and,

  Gbagbo, Laurent, 158–59, 161–66

  90–92

  GEMAP (Governance and Eco -

  nomic Management Assistance Ibori, James, 46

  Program),

  Ibrahim, Mo, 142

  215–16

  Iceland, 132

  gender, civil wars and, 130

  Igbuzor, Otive, 38

  geography, civil wars and, 131

  immigration, in Cote d’Ivoire,

  Germany, 193

  156–60

  Ghana, 156, 196

  immunity from prosecution, auto -

  Githongo, John, 53–54

  cratic leaders and, 27

  Goderis, Benedikt, 142

  In the Footsteps of Mr. Kurtz

  good government, as election strat -

  (Wrong), 15

  egy, 28–29

  income levels. See also economic

  Gueï, Robert, 159–163, 206–7

  policies

  Gugerty, Mary Kay, 59

  ethnic politics and, 61, 63

  Guinea, 194

  political violence and, 20–23

  guns. See Military spending

  India, 42

  250

  Index

  Indonesia

  Italy, 111

  elections and, 16

  ethnic politics and, 66–67, 72

  Jawara, Dawda, 145

  infant mortality, 46

  Jennings, Colin, 48–49, 56–57

  inflation. See hyperinflation

  Johnson-Sirleaf, Ellen, 215–16

  information, elections and voters’

  lack of, 25–26, 27

  Kabila, Joseph, 82, 85

  internal security threats, military

  Kabila, Laurent-Désiré, 82, 134

  spending and, 108–9

  Kagame, Paul, 183–84

  International Bank for Reconstruc -

  Kalishnikovs, 114–17

  tion, 232

  Kaunda, Kenneth, 5, 17

  International Country Risk Guide, 41 Kenya

  international intervention, 189–227,

  coups and, 149

  229–34. See also aid

  elections and, 5, 16, 31–32, 33, 36,

  federalism and ethnic diversity,

  50, 202–3, 226–27

  196–98

  ethnic politics and, 51, 53–55, 57,

  national sovereignty and,

  59, 68–73

  198–202

  regional cooperation and, 194

  proposal for enforcing probity in

  Kenyatta, Jomo, 68–73

  public spending, 213–18

  Kibaki, Mwai, 5, 211

  proposal for harnessing violence

  Killicoat, Philip, 115–16

  for democracy, 202–12

  Kimenyi, Mwangi, 33

  to provide accountability and

  Kony, Joseph, 135

  security, 189–91

  Kudamatsu, Masayuki, 46, 65–66

  regional cooperation and, 191–96

  International Monetary Fund

  La Ferrara, Eliana, 63, 117–18

  (IMF)

  Laitin, David, 22

  Cote d’Ivoire and, 158, 160

  language, ethnic politics and na -

  establishment of, 232

  tional identity, 67

  intimidation, as election strategy,

  legit
imacy, democratic governments

  33–34, 38–39

  and political violence, 18–24,

  Invisible Cure, The (Epstein), 183

  46–47

  Iraq

  Liberia

  elections and, 48

  civil war and, 128

  international intervention and, 7,

  control of public spending in,

  10, 87, 121, 231, 233

  215–16

  peace and, 24, 62

  Cote d’Ivoire and, 164–65

  Index

  251

  natural resources and civil war

  external security threats and,

  in, 126

  104–8

  post-conflict settlements and, 93, 95

  internal security threats and,

  regional cooperation and, 194

  108–9

  lies, election strategy and, 29–30

  international intervention and

  Luxembourg, 192, 202

  negotiated cuts in, 218–21

  as necessity versus luxury,

  MacIndoe, Tara, 91

  109–10

  Madagascar, 25

  risk of coups and, 151–52

  “Making Autocracy Work” (Besley

  Mobutu Sese Seko

  and Masayuki), 65–66

  elections and, 15–16

  Mandela, Nelson, 66, 230

  inflation and, 180

  Marshall Plan, 232

  military and, 134, 149, 183

  Marxist ideology, dictatorship and,

  post-conflict settlements and, 76,

  16

  82

  Masire, Quett, 142

  Moi, Daniel

  Mauritania, 144, 206

  elections and, 16, 31–32, 33, 36

  Mbeke, Thabo, 35

  ethnic politics and, 69, 72–73

  McGowan, Patrick, 146

  Mozambique, 128

  men, civil wars and young, 130

  MPLA, 16

  Mengistu Haile Mariam, 145, 147

  Mugabe, Robert

  Michigan, University of, 122

  coups and, 148

  Miguel, Edward, 59, 68–71

  effects of, 227

  military activities. See also arms

  elections and, 5–6, 17–18, 30, 32, 46

  embargoes

  inflation and, 180

  in Cote d’Ivoire, 159–65

  national sovereignty and, 201

  coups and structure of units,

  post-conflict settlements and, 90

  149

  regional cooperation and, 195

  post-conflict settlements and,

  Muhatir, Mohammad, 141

  83–87, 89

  Muli, Koki, 5, 73

  military spending, 103–19

  Museveni, Yoweri, 17, 182–184

  aid’s effect on, 110–12, 113–14,

  Mwanawasa, Levy, 148, 195

  119

  arms embargoes and, 117–19

  Nairobi, 77

  costs and spread of weapons,

  nation and state building, 169–87

  114–17

  current options for, 185–87

  deterrence and, 112–13

  decolonization and, 172–74

  252

  Index

  nation and state building ( cont. )

  Nyerere, Julius, 66–68, 70, 71–72,

  historic routes to, 169–72

  185, 196, 230

  historical routes now closed,

 

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