182–85
Obasanjo, Olusegun, elections and,
taxation’s role in, 173–176,
17, 35, 37–40, 45–46
179–82
Odinga, Raila, 51, 70, 72, 73, 211
national identity, ethnic politics
opponents, restricting as election
and, 66–73
strategy, 34–35
national sovereignty
Organization for Economic Coop -
international intervention and,
eration and Development, 192,
198–202
232
proposal for international in-
Otieno, Mr. (Kenyan), 54–55
tervention to supply security,
Ouattara, Alassane, 158–60, 162,
221–26
165–66
nationalism. See nation and state
building
Pakistan, 35, 223
NATO, 232
peace, post–Cold War shift away
natural resources
from violence and, 2–5
of Cote d’Ivoire, 156–57, 166
Peace Research Institute, 116
lack of and need for international peacekeeping. See post-conflict aid, 215
settlements
post-conflict misuse of, 76–77
Persson, Thorsten, 128
predictability of civil war and,
Plato, 108
126–28
political violence
Ndung’u, Mjuguna, 33
accountability, legitimacy, elec-
neighbors, military spending and,
tions and, 18–20, 46–47
106–7
guns, wars, and coups and, 5–10
Netherlands, 174–75
income levels and elections,
Nigeria
20–23
elections and, 2, 17, 27, 35, 37–40,
international community and
43, 45–46
interventions, 10–11
ethnic politics and, 54, 57–58
nation building and, 169–71,
term limits and, 150
176–77
United States and, 212
post–Cold War shift away from,
Nkonjo-Iweala, Ngozi, 43, 45
1–5
Nkrumah, Kwame, 156, 196
politics
Northern Ireland, 57
civil wars and, 132
Index
253
in Cote d’Ivoire, 157–158
Ranneberger, Michael, 50
ethnicity and, 55–57
rebellions, contrasted with coups,
Polity IV scale
141, 143–44
civil war and, 132, 139
regional cooperation, international
coups and, 153
intervention and, 191–96
elections and, 36–37, 44
Renfrew, Colin, 155
post-conflict settlements and, 80
repression, prediction of coups and,
population size
146
civil war and, 130–31
restricting the field, as election
military spending and, 107
strategy, 34–35
post-conflict settlements, 75–100
Revolutionary United Front (RUF),
in Cote d’Ivoire, 86, 164–65
89, 93
economics and, 87–89
Ribadu, Nuhu, 46
economics and aid needs, 89–95
Rohner, Dominic, 20–24, 123
elections and, 79–83, 89
Roman Empire, nation building
instability after, 75–79
and fall of, 172–73, 176
international intervention and
rule of law, 23, 46
national sovereignty, 223–226
Russia
military spending and deter-
elections and, 17
rence, 112–113
regional cooperation and, 192
peacekeeping cost-benefit analy-
term limits and, 150
sis, 95–100
Rwanda, 86, 103, 183–84, 223
peacekeeping troops and, 83–87,
89
Sambanis, Nicolas, 83, 88
power, violence and, 1–2
São Tomé, 145
presidents. See also autocracies
Saudi Arabia, 127
economic status and, 141–42
Savimbi, Jonas, 124
sovereignty and, 200–202, 231
Sayeh, Antoinette, 216
Principled Agents? (Besley), 25
scapegoating, as election strategy, 30
private-sector productivity, ethnic
security
politics and, 59–61
government provision of, 229–30
public services, ethnic politics and,
international intervention and,
58–59
189–91
public spending, proposal to enforce
Selassie, Hailie, 144–45, 177
probity in, 213–18
“selectariat,” 65–66
purges, 23–24
self-determination, nation building
Putin, Vladimir, 17
and, 177
254
Index
Senegal, 144, 208
Sukarno, 230
Short, Clare, 184
Tamil Tigers, 133–134
Sierra Leone
Tanzania
Cote d’Ivoire and, 164
ethnic politics and, 66–68, 70,
natural resources and civil war,
71–72
126
nation building and, 185
Sierra Leone
regional cooperation and, 196
post-conflict settlements and, 3,
Uganda and, 183
85–86, 89, 91, 92–93, 97, 98–99
taxation
skills of populace, post-conflict
government accountability and,
economic aid and, 92–95
173–176, 179–182
smallpox, 138
post-conflict revenues and, 90–91
social structure, civil wars and,
Taylor, Charles, 165
129–131
term limits, prevention of coups
Söderbom, Mans, 79
and, 149–150
Somalia, 138, 223, 233
Thailand, 145
Soro, Guillaume, 166
Togo, 148, 164
South Africa, 35, 66, 212
Transdniestra, 185
South Ossetia, 185
Southern Sudan, 76–78, 131
Uganda
Spencer, John, 145
civil war and, 135
Sri Lanka, 80–81, 133–134
economics and, 182–84
state and nation building. See na -
elections and, 17, 25
tion and state building
regional cooperation and, 194
stock price, as arms embargo aid,
security provision and, 223
118
term limits and, 150
Stockholm Peace Research Institute UNITA, 16
(SIPRI), 105
United Kingdom
Sudan, 3, 134–135
Conservative Party in, 133–134
Sudanese People’s Liberation Army
fall of Roman Empire and nation
(SPLA), 76–77, 135
building, 172–173, 176
Suez Crisis, 177
international intervention and,
Suharto
226
elections and, 16, 17
peacekeeping in Sierra Leone,
ethnic politics and, 66–67, 72
85–86, 89, 98–99
post-conflict settlements and,
United Nations
78�
��79
arms embargoes and, 117
Index
255
Cote d’Ivoire and, 164
Wilson, Woodrow, 177
Department of Peacekeeping
World Bank
Operations (DPKO), 85
Cote d’Ivoire and, 160
Development Program (UNDP),
Country Policy and Institutional
92
Assessment of, 41, 153
establishment of, 232
International Bank for Recon -
Human Rights Commission, 195,
struction, 232
226
reporting on natural resources, 127
national sovereignty and, 193,
Wrong, Michela, 15
199–203
Peace-Building Commission, 75,
Yugoslavia, 131
85, 224
peacekeeping operations data,
Zaire
83–85
civil war and, 134
R2P (responsibility to protect),
coups and, 149
218–19
elections and, 15–16
United States
inflation in, 180
Africa and, 211–12
invasion of, 183
European security after World
Zambia
War II, 232
coups and, 148
federal power and, 192
elections and, 5, 17, 42
regional cooperation and, 195
Vall, Ely Ould Mohamed, 144, 206
term limits and, 150
Venezuela, 114, 150
Zero Grazing campaign, in
Versailles Treaty, 177
Uganda, 183
Vicente, Pedro, 32, 37–39
Zimbabwe
violence. See political violence
elections and, 5–6, 16, 17–18, 30,
votes, miscounting as election
32, 34, 46
strategy, 35–36, 38–39
ethnic politics and, 58–59
inflation in, 180
Wantchekon, Leonard, 56
international intervention and,
War in Human Civilization (Gat),
226–27
126
post-conflict settlements and,
wars. See civil wars
90–91
Widner, Jennifer, 156
regional cooperation and, 195
Wigstrom, Christian, 197
term limits and, 150
About the Author
PA U L C O L L I E R is a professor of economics at
Oxford University. He is the author of The Bottom
Billion, which won the Lionel Gelber Prize and the
Arthur Ross Book Award of the Council on Foreign
Relations. He lives in Oxford, England.
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WARS, GUNS, AND VOTES. Copyright © 2009 by Paul Collier. All
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Document Outline
CONTENTS
Introduction: Democracy in Dangerous Places
I: Denying Reality: Democrazy 1. Votes and Violence
2. Ethnic Politics
3. Inside the Cauldron: Post-Conflict Settlements
II: Facing Reality: Nasty, Brutish, and Long 4. Guns: Fueling the Fire
5. Wars: The Political Economy of Destruction
6. Coups: The Unguided Missile
7. Meltdown in Cote d’Ivoire
III: Changing Reality: Accountability and Security 8. State Building and Nation Building
9. Better Dead Than Fed?
10. On Changing Reality
Acknowledgments
Appendix: The Bottom Billion
Research on Which This Book Is Based
Index
About the Author
Credits
Paul Collier - Wars, Guns, and Votes Page 31
