Paul Collier - Wars, Guns, and Votes
Page 30
Governance. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2004.
Azar Gat. War in Human Civilization. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006.
Patrick Geary. The Myth of Nations: The Medieval Origins of Europe.
Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2002.
Philip Killicoat. “Cheap Guns, More War? The Economics of Small
Arms.” M.Phil. economics thesis, University of Oxford, 2006.
Mwangi Kimenyi and Njuguna Ndung’u. “Sporadic Ethnic Violence:
Why Has Kenya Not Experienced a Full-Blown Civil War?” In
Understanding Civil War (Volume 1: Africa), edited by Paul Collier
and Nicholas Sambanis. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2005,
123–156.
Edward Miguel. “Tribe or Nation? Nation-Building and Public
Goods in Kenya Versus Tanzania.” World Politics 56, no. 3 (2004):
327–362.
Colin Renfrew. Prehistory: The Making of the Human Mind. London:
Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 2007.
I N D E X
Abacha, Sani, 35, 161
federation and ethnic diversity
Abkhazia, 185
in, 197–98
accountability
French provision of security in,
government provision of, 229–30
86–87, 89, 99
international intervention and,
international standards proposal
189–91
and, 211–12
nation building and, 173–76,
price and movement of guns in,
179–82, 186–87
115–17
political violence and, 18–24,
risk of coups in, 147
46–47
African Peer Review Mechanism,
proposal for enforcing probity in
194–95
public spending, 213–18
African Union, 223
proposal for harnessing violence,
Afrobarometer, 38–39, 68, 178
202–12
aid. See also international interven -
Action Aid, 38–39
tion
Adam, Chris, 90
to Cote d’Ivoire, 111, 155, 158,
Afghanistan, 48, 139
164–65
Africa. See also specific countries
effect on military spending,
coups in, 8
110–12, 113–14, 119
decolonization and, 172–73,
prediction of coups and, 148
178–79
AIDS, 138–39, 183
ethnic politics and economic
Al Qaida, 139
progress in, 64–66
Alesina, Alberto, 63
246
Index
Amin, Idi, 183
Brown, Gordon, 226
Andom, Aman, 145, 147
Burkina Faso, 156, 162, 164, 165
Angola
Burundi, 3, 78, 193
civil war and, 124, 126, 128
Bush, George W., 169, 234
elections and, 16
military spending and, 185
Canada, 186
post-conflict settlements and, 80–81 capital, flight of during post-settle-
security provision and, 223
ment inflation, 91–92
Arias, Oscar, 104
Carter, Jimmy, 17
arms embargoes, 117–119, 164
Caselli, Francesco, 127
Arrow, Ken, 94
Castro, Fidel, 183
autocracies
Chad
elections and, 16–18, 23–40
civil war in, 87
ethnic politics and, 61–66
elections and, 17
overthrow of, 15–16
term limits and, 150
taxation and power in, 179–82
Chauvet, Lisa, 41–43, 222
Chavez, Hugo, 114
Barr, Abigail, 58–59
Chiluba, Frederick, 17
Bates, Robert, 64
China, 21, 62
battle-related deaths, decline in, 4–5 Chirac, Jacques, 86
Bédié, Henri Konan, 158–60, 165–66
civil wars, 121–40. See also coups
Behar, Alberto, 222
d’état
Belarus, 164
economic costs of, 137–39
Belgium, 186, 192
economic development and,
Bemba, Jean-Pierre, 85
125–28
Benin, 25, 56
feasibility hypothesis and, 132–37
Besley, Tim
as future of conflict, 121–22
civil wars, 128
methodology of study of,
elections, 24–25, 27, 28
122–25
ethnic politics, 65–66
military spending and, 108
Blair, Tony, 226
predictability of, 128–32
Botswana, 142
prevention of, 139–40
bottom billion
Clemens, Michael, 184
income thresholds in, 21
Cold War
list of countries in, 239–40
civil wars during, 128–29
bribery, as election strategy, 31–33,
military spending after, 106
38–39
swings of strategy after, 233–34
Index
247
colonialism
Cuba, 183
civil war and, 128
Darfur, 134–35
decolonization of Africa and,
Davies, Victor, 89–90, 92
172–173, 178–179
debt, nation building and account -
Compaoré, Blaise, 162, 165
ability, 174–75
Congo. See Democratic Republic of Deby, Idriss, 17
the Congo
DellaVigna, Stefano, 117–18
Copenhagen Consensus, 97
democracy. See also elections
corruption, autocratic leaders and,
power, violence, and universal
27
values, 1–11
Costa Rica, 132
prediction of coups and, 146
Cote d’Ivoire, 8, 155–66
Democratic Republic of the Congo
aid to, 111, 155, 158, 164–165
elections and, 48
arms embargoes and, 117, 164
natural resources and civil war
coups in, 159–66
in, 126
economic policies of, 156–57
post-conflict settlements and,
elections in, 158–63, 165
75–76, 82–83, 85, 98
natural resources of, 156–57, 166
post-conflict settlements and
politics in, 157–58
national sovereignty,
post-conflict settlements and, 86,
223–24
164–65
public goods and, 191
Country Policy and Institutional
security provision and, 223
Assessment, of World Bank,
war and, 7
41, 153
democrazy, 15–18
coups d’état, 7–8, 141–54. See also
Derg regime, 16
civil wars
deterrence, military spending and,
in Cote d’Ivoire, 159–66
112–13
economic costs of, 142–44
dictatorships. See autocracies
military spending and, 109
Diouf, Abdou, 208
predictors of, 145–52
Dixit, Avinash, 230
proposal for international inter-
Doe, Samuel, 142
vention to restore legitimate
Doyle, Michael, 83–84, 88
governments after, 202–12
Duponchel, Marguerite, 90, 92–95
ment, 144–45
East Timor
as restraints on governments, 144
civil war and, 128
results of, 152–154
elections and, 17
248
Index
East Timor ( cont.)
proposal for harnessing violence
national sovereignty and, 131,
for democracy, 202–12
200–201
strategies for winning, 23–40
post-conflict settlements and,
El-Rufai, Nasir, 40
78–79
Epstein, Helen, 183
Economic Community of West Af -
Eritrea
rican States (ECOWAS), 164
Ethiopia and, 177
economic policies. See also income
national sovereignty and, 131,
levels
223
civil wars and, 125–28
People’s Liberation Front of, 130
costs of coups and, 142–44
post-conflict settlements and, 78
of Cote d’Ivoire, 156–57
Ethiopia
elections and, 25–26, 41–44
aid and, 111
nation building and, 170–71,
civil war and, 128, 144–45
173–76
Derg regime, 16
post-conflict settlements and,
Eritrea and, 177
87–89
ethnic politics, 51–73
post-conflict settlements and aid
autocrats and, 61–66
needs, 89–95
checks and balances and, 57–58
education, ethnic politics and, 59, 67
civil war and, 129–130
elections, 15–50
elections and, 26, 55–57
accountability, legitimacy, and
federation and, 196–198
political violence, 18–24, 46–47
nation building and, 169–70, 175,
in Cote d’Ivoire, 158–163, 165
178–79
democratic values and, 5–11
national identity and, 66–73
democrazy and, 15–18
origins of, 52–53
ethnic politics and, 55–57
prediction of coups and, 147
income levels and political vio -
private-sector productivity and,
lence, 20–23
59–61
international approaches to,
public services and, 58–59
47–50
scapegoating of minorities as
policy and governance choices,
election strategy, 30
40–46
societal obligations and, 53–55
post–Cold War shift away from
Etteh, Patricia, 57–58
violence and, 2
European Community, 192, 232
post-conflict settlements and,
European Union, 192, 195
79–83, 89
expressive voting, 56–57
Index
249
external security threats, military
health issues
spending and, 104–8
AIDS, 138–39, 183
Eyadéma, Gnassingbe, 148
civil wars and, 138–39
Ezekwesili, Oby, 45, 54
Hegre, Havard, 113
Herodotus, 23–24
Fearon, James, 22
history, predictability of civil wars
feasibility hypothesis, for civil wars,
and, 128–29
132–37
Hoeffler, Anke
federation, international interven -
civil wars, 122–23, 127, 128
tion and, 196–98
coups, 142
Ferguson, Niall, 129
military spending, 104, 108,
Forces Nouvelles (FN), in Cote
113
d’Ivoire, 163–65
post-conflict settlements, 79, 89,
France
91
aid to Cote d’Ivoire, 111
security provision, 222
provision of security in Africa
Houphouët-Boigny, Félix, 155–57
and, 86–87, 89, 99
Hussein, Saddam, 24, 62
hyperinflation
Gambia, 145
nation building and, 180
Gat, Azar, 126
post-conflict settlements and,
Gbagbo, Laurent, 158–59, 161–66
90–92
GEMAP (Governance and Eco -
nomic Management Assistance Ibori, James, 46
Program),
Ibrahim, Mo, 142
215–16
Iceland, 132
gender, civil wars and, 130
Igbuzor, Otive, 38
geography, civil wars and, 131
immigration, in Cote d’Ivoire,
Germany, 193
156–60
Ghana, 156, 196
immunity from prosecution, auto -
Githongo, John, 53–54
cratic leaders and, 27
Goderis, Benedikt, 142
In the Footsteps of Mr. Kurtz
good government, as election strat -
(Wrong), 15
egy, 28–29
income levels. See also economic
Gueï, Robert, 159–163, 206–7
policies
Gugerty, Mary Kay, 59
ethnic politics and, 61, 63
Guinea, 194
political violence and, 20–23
guns. See Military spending
India, 42
250
Index
Indonesia
Italy, 111
elections and, 16
ethnic politics and, 66–67, 72
Jawara, Dawda, 145
infant mortality, 46
Jennings, Colin, 48–49, 56–57
inflation. See hyperinflation
Johnson-Sirleaf, Ellen, 215–16
information, elections and voters’
lack of, 25–26, 27
Kabila, Joseph, 82, 85
internal security threats, military
Kabila, Laurent-Désiré, 82, 134
spending and, 108–9
Kagame, Paul, 183–84
International Bank for Reconstruc -
Kalishnikovs, 114–17
tion, 232
Kaunda, Kenneth, 5, 17
International Country Risk Guide, 41 Kenya
international intervention, 189–227,
coups and, 149
229–34. See also aid
elections and, 5, 16, 31–32, 33, 36,
federalism and ethnic diversity,
50, 202–3, 226–27
196–98
ethnic politics and, 51, 53–55, 57,
national sovereignty and,
59, 68–73
198–202
regional cooperation and, 194
proposal for enforcing probity in
Kenyatta, Jomo, 68–73
public spending, 213–18
Kibaki, Mwai, 5, 211
proposal for harnessing violence
Killicoat, Philip, 115–16
for democracy, 202–12
Kimenyi, Mwangi, 33
to provide accountability and
Kony, Joseph, 135
security, 189–91
Kudamatsu, Masayuki, 46, 65–66
regional cooperation and, 191–96
International Monetary Fund
La Ferrara, Eliana, 63, 117–18
(IMF)
Laitin, David, 22
Cote d’Ivoire and, 158, 160
language, ethnic politics and na -
establishment of, 232
tional identity, 67
intimidation, as election strategy,
legit
imacy, democratic governments
33–34, 38–39
and political violence, 18–24,
Invisible Cure, The (Epstein), 183
46–47
Iraq
Liberia
elections and, 48
civil war and, 128
international intervention and, 7,
control of public spending in,
10, 87, 121, 231, 233
215–16
peace and, 24, 62
Cote d’Ivoire and, 164–65
Index
251
natural resources and civil war
external security threats and,
in, 126
104–8
post-conflict settlements and, 93, 95
internal security threats and,
regional cooperation and, 194
108–9
lies, election strategy and, 29–30
international intervention and
Luxembourg, 192, 202
negotiated cuts in, 218–21
as necessity versus luxury,
MacIndoe, Tara, 91
109–10
Madagascar, 25
risk of coups and, 151–52
“Making Autocracy Work” (Besley
Mobutu Sese Seko
and Masayuki), 65–66
elections and, 15–16
Mandela, Nelson, 66, 230
inflation and, 180
Marshall Plan, 232
military and, 134, 149, 183
Marxist ideology, dictatorship and,
post-conflict settlements and, 76,
16
82
Masire, Quett, 142
Moi, Daniel
Mauritania, 144, 206
elections and, 16, 31–32, 33, 36
Mbeke, Thabo, 35
ethnic politics and, 69, 72–73
McGowan, Patrick, 146
Mozambique, 128
men, civil wars and young, 130
MPLA, 16
Mengistu Haile Mariam, 145, 147
Mugabe, Robert
Michigan, University of, 122
coups and, 148
Miguel, Edward, 59, 68–71
effects of, 227
military activities. See also arms
elections and, 5–6, 17–18, 30, 32, 46
embargoes
inflation and, 180
in Cote d’Ivoire, 159–65
national sovereignty and, 201
coups and structure of units,
post-conflict settlements and, 90
149
regional cooperation and, 195
post-conflict settlements and,
Muhatir, Mohammad, 141
83–87, 89
Muli, Koki, 5, 73
military spending, 103–19
Museveni, Yoweri, 17, 182–184
aid’s effect on, 110–12, 113–14,
Mwanawasa, Levy, 148, 195
119
arms embargoes and, 117–19
Nairobi, 77
costs and spread of weapons,
nation and state building, 169–87
114–17
current options for, 185–87
deterrence and, 112–13
decolonization and, 172–74
252
Index
nation and state building ( cont. )
Nyerere, Julius, 66–68, 70, 71–72,
historic routes to, 169–72
185, 196, 230
historical routes now closed,