Dragon Strike -- A Novel of the Coming War with China (Future History Book 1)
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`To my surprise, the Americans said that it was none of Japan's business. I asked how, in light of the very limited number of US ships, they could deny the need for such assistance. The answer: "We cannot leave such a critical matter with Japan." I asked whether it was appropriate to involve the British and the Germans, and he said it would be.
`The fact of the matter is that the Americans do not trust Japan. Japan would have no expertise with which to analyse the information provided by the Amber System, yet they were still worried about Japanese reliability in collecting it. American racial prejudice towards Japan is fundamental and we should always keep it in mind when dealing with the Americans. During the Second World War, Americans bombed civilian targets in Germany, but only on Japan did they use the atomic bomb. While they refuse to admit it, the only reason why they could use the atomic bomb at all was because of their racial attitude towards Japan.
`We Japanese now face choices on whether we can boldly proceed, or stand back quietly. It may be possible that Japan can secure a new future for itself based upon a truly independent posture in our region and in the world. We must not restrain ourselves to what we have done up to this point.'
`What sort of action does the Prime Minister have in mind?' Mr Naito, the Trade Minister, asked.
`I will come to that later, but I would have thought at the very least we ought to make it plain to the US and the world that the security treaty no longer exists. I think we should also give consideration to a demonstration of our military power so that China, in particular, recognizes our legitimate rights and interests in the South China Sea. You more than most, Naito-san, recognize the importance to our economy of free and unfettered access to that particular waterway.'
`Indeed, as I am also aware of our investment in China that might be put at risk if we were to take precipitate action against Beijing in the South China Sea,' Naito said. `A shipment of oil is by no means a trivial thing, but is it worth risking what we have in China? Of the top thirty joint ventures in China, we are the leader with seven. We are the biggest importers from China in a trade that profits us greatly. I'm concerned about expropriation. I know industry is as well. Some leaders have called to say they are worried by this talk of military action.'
`The inevitable cannot be put off simply by hoping so,' Foreign Minister Kimura said. `Besides, we are all Asians. I am sure we can reach an accommodation with China. Businessmen should do what they do best and keep out of politics.'
`I would now like Ishihara-san to give us a briefing on the state of readiness of our forces and the project on Ogasarawa,' Hyashi said. `Ishihara-san.'
`Japan's military forces are at a high state of readiness, Prime Minister. Our southern fleet, which occupies the former US facilities on Okinawa, is at sea. It consists of a small carrier, three guided-missile cruisers, and associated support ships. We also have a submarine in the vicinity. Given the state of our technology, it is unlikely that the Chinese could inflict much damage upon us. But, of course, it does not pay to be complacent. Admiral Yamashita is in command.
`The facility at Ogasawara is, as you know, spread over a number of small islands. The smallest is a test facility and, 22 kilometres south, the largest houses Defence Research Facility 317 and the some 165 or so scientists and soldiers working there. It too is in a high state of readiness. Indeed, all is prepared and awaits only the authorization of the Prime Minister.'
`I am aware of this secret facility,' Finance Minister Wada said. `Its budget is hidden in the Agriculture Ministry's annual budget for research into rice. But I've never been told what 317 does and I'm bound to say, Ishiharasan, you've not enlightened me at all.'
`317 is a nuclear weapons research facility,' Ishihara said. `It exists to pool and develop the government's efforts in the nuclear field. It was decided by the government of the day and has been upheld by subsequent governments that Japan should acquire the ability to manufacture a small number of nuclear weapons. It has never been the government's intention to compete with the United States, Russia, or China in the quantity of nuclear weapons the nation possesses. Instead we have gone for quality and deliverability. Given our own tragic experience as the only nation on earth to receive a nuclear explosion at a time of war we set out with the aim of making the cleanest possible device. The warheads we have made if used in anger would cause considerable initial damage but very little of the ongoing health problems that come from bombs which create a lot of radioactivity.'
The silence in the cabinet room was deafening. The Prime Minister decided to bring the meeting to an end.
`Although I was an early sceptic I believe the developments so far this week fully justify the decision to establish the 317 project. The proposal I wish to put before you is this. We need to be seen to be doing something; to be a part of this crisis not just an impotent onlooker. To achieve this I plan to authorize a test of one of our smallest devices, a 50 kiloton bomb to be detonated underground. I believe this modest explosion would announce to the world our coming of age as a nuclear power and simultaneously put China on notice that we will not tolerate its actions in the South China Sea.'
The Foreign Ministry, Beijing
Local time: 1400 Tuesday 20 February 2001
GMT: 0600 Tuesday 20 February 2001
The Indian Ambassador's car drew up outside the new Foreign Ministry building in Beijing five minutes before the meeting with Jamie Song. He was shown straight in. The two men shook hands and spoke on first-name terms. Later the Ambassador told the Press Trust of India that the talks had been businesslike, but friendly.
`Hardeep, the Ministry of State Security tell me you are moving extra troops into the border area with Tibet,' began the Foreign Minister.
`If that is so, Jamie, it is a mystery to me. I enquired this very morning with Delhi and they tell me we are watching, but doing nothing.'
`Can you check again?'
`I can, but I was also going to mention that RAW [the Research and Analysis Wing of the Indian security forces] is reporting increased dissident activities in Lhasa and other cities. I mention this privately, of course.'
`Of course.'
`And it believes there is a possibility of the dissident groups taking advantage of your military concentration in the South China Sea.'
`I trust India will do nothing to encourage this.'
`We give sanctuary, as you know. Nothing else. But I have been instructed by my Prime Minister to mention the following points officially.'
`Go on, Hardeep.'
`We are considering taking up a long-standing offer to expand our military training programmes with the Americans. As you know they began in 1991. Among other things, the Americans enjoy the high-altitude Himalayan training. I've been instructed to tell you that India is concerned about Chinese military expansion and we are seeking assurances.'
`Such as?'
`A halt in your sale of nuclear technology to Pakistan. A slowdown of your weapons sales to Pakistan. A removal or sharing with us of your military base on Hangyi Island in Burma which, as you know, strategically flanks the Bay of Bengal. And the same for the monitoring station on Burma's Great Coco Island north of our Andaman Islands.'
`You are forthright, Ambassador.'
`It must be our British colonial training. It is better for you to share what is not yours and keep my government happy.'
`If we don't?'
`If the fears of my government are not allayed about Chinese territorial expansion, we will display our nuclear arsenal.'
`A dangerous move, Hardeep.'
`The world is becoming a more dangerous place.'
`And if we comply?'
`We won't interfere in Tibet.'
The Kremlin, Moscow
Local time: 0900 Tuesday 20 February 2001
GMT: 0700 Tuesday 20 February 2001
The Chinese Ambassador to Moscow was summoned to the Kremlin at less than an hour's notice. The time-span had acute diplomatic significance, as did the rank of his host,
the Deputy Foreign Minister. The Foreign Minister was otherwise engaged.
`Ambassador, my government is concerned about the civilian casualties caused by your attacks on Vietnam. We don't want to see any more.'
`This is an internal matter between China and-'
The Deputy Foreign Minister cut in: `Not when Russian aircraft are involved.'
`What are you suggesting, Deputy Foreign Minister?'
`I will be frank. We are under pressure from the Americans to withdraw our technical support. If you can keep your campaign free of civilian bloodshed, preferably all bloodshed, then we will have no reason to comply. But the spectre of Russian aircraft bombing residential areas in Vietnam is one my government will not tolerate.'
The Foreign Ministry, Beijing
Local time: 1630 Tuesday 20 February 2001
GMT: 0830 Tuesday 20 February 2001
Jamie Song arranged his afternoon meetings with the French, German, and British Ambassadors at half-hourly intervals. He didn't want them to bump into each other, but he intended them to have reported back to their capitals and to have a response by early the next day.
He deliberately kept the French Ambassador waiting for seven minutes and was standing as he was shown in. Neither man sat down during the meeting.
`Ambassador, my government is surprised and saddened at the open support you are showing at this time for an enemy of China. I understand that French military personnel have been used against the People's Liberation Army.'
`We have, as you know, treaty obligations towards Vietnam.'
`These do not interest my government. In good faith, China allowed France to open a diplomatic mission in Beijing a full ten years before the Americans. We had regarded you as an old and trusted friend. There have been difficult times, such as your sale of warships and aircraft to Taiwan in the nineties. But nothing to equal the level of betrayal you have exercised in the past two days.'
`I will pass the Foreign Minister's comments on to my government.'
`You will do more than that, Ambassador. You will tell them that unless we hear an immediate declaration of neutrality from France, we will strike all French companies from tendering for new Chinese contracts and as from next week we will close your Citroe¨n plant in Wuhan. That is all.'
Jamie Song was more cordial with the British Ambassador. The two men sat in the comfortable leather chairs in a corner of his office. `We appreciate Britain's neutrality in this difficult regional dispute,' he began. `Your deep knowledge of the Chinese people and their culture has helped you understand that these problems are much better solved without outside interference. After all, us Asians have to stand on our own two feet at some time or another, without American aircraft carriers smacking us over the bottoms.'
`Yes it is difficult, Foreign Minister. I am only instructed to say at this time, that we are concerned about British nationals at risk both in Vietnam and on the Spratly Island oil rigs which have been seized. The House of Commons is restless. As you know, democracies like easy solutions and quick action. If the Prime Minister could report their safety to the House this afternoon, our neutrality would be much easier to maintain. At the same time, the television pictures of the attacks on Vietnam are doing nothing to help China's international image. For the same reason, these will need to stop if Britain is to continue to argue your case.'
`That is an internal affair between China and Vietnam. Frankly, Ambassador, it is none of your business.'
`I'm afraid the world being as small as it is it will become an internal affair of Great Britain. When we sacked the Summer Palace in 1860, there were no television cameras to record the behaviour of the British troops. If the British people are outraged by your actions in Vietnam, British politicians, albeit reluctantly, have to reflect that outrage.'
Jamie Song stood up to signal that the meeting was over. He extended his hand and held the grip of the Ambassador as he said: `I wanted to talk to you over the next few days about the airport contracts. There is a chance that they could all go to British companies, if we all play our cards rights. None would be more pleased than I.' Jamie Song walked the Ambassador down the long corridor to the waiting lift which even in modern Chinese culture was a sign of great respect. But not greater than the figure of Jamie Song waiting at the top of the steps as the car of the German Ambassador drew up, or clasping the diplomat's arm and guiding him the lift and then to his office. A waiter bought a ready mixed Smirnoff vodka with fresh orange, which Jamie Song knew was his favourite afternoon drink. They sat in the same comfortable chairs. Mahler's Fifth Symphony drifted through the large room as background music. They spoke on first name terms.
`We are trying to account for all foreign nationals, Helmut. I spoke to the President just a few minutes ago. He tells me the military operations against Vietnam will be halted by the end of the day. The shipping routes are reopening. By the end of the week everyone will have forgotten about it.'
`The Chancellor has urged the international community to be restrained.'
`The President asked me to pass on his appreciation of Germany's mature approach to this difficult regional problem. Believe me, Helmut, once this settles down, there'll be no more talk of Asian flashpoints any more.'
`And the sea-routes?'
`We have only been worried about shipping getting caught in the cross-fire. I think the routes are opening even as we speak.'
`I'll tell the Chancellor.'
`Yes, and you might mention that we are very interested in the latest Siemens, Mercedes, and Volkswagen joint-venture applications. I understand there's been some delays in the negotiations, but I think you'll find they'll be cleared up in the next few days.'
Boeing Headquarters, Seattle
Local time: 0030 Tuesday 20 February 2001
GMT: 0830 Tuesday 20 February 2001
The picket line stretched for more than a kilometre and would stay there through the night. Reece Overhalt, Chief Executive Officer of Boeing, looked down on the demonstrators from his executive suite: he knew he had no alternative but to tough it out. The demonstrators' placards denounced China and denounced Boeing. `Stop the export of US jobs to China!'; `Boeing supports Chinese Killers!'; `Overhalt, Overdone, Throw him OUT!'. At the head of the demonstration was an official from the International Association of Machinists (IAM). The IAM had led a bitter seven-week strike in 1995 against Boeing, where the export of jobs to China was a key issue. To win Chinese aircraft orders Boeing agreed to export part of the aircraft's manufacture to China. The union's magazine, IAM Journal, said these `offsets' were `a thuggish game of job blackmail . . . US aerospace giants don't seem concerned about giving it all away. They feed the Asian tiger, and the competitor grows.' The Chinese attack on Vietnam and its blockage of the South China Sea acted as a lightning conductor for union grievances. The IAM accused Boeing of selling the American birthright by agreeing that as much as 20 per cent of the value of Boeing's new 777 wide-body jet could be manufactured in Japan. One union official noted that China was building Boeing 737 tail sections in a military-run plant that made the same bombers which were attacking Vietnam. `It is unlawful and ludicrous to expect American business and labour to compete with Chinese labour under military discipline.'
Overhalt's more pressing concern was Boeing's share price. It had taken a battering, falling $3 to $67.50. It was also depreciating at a faster rate than the market as a whole. The Dow Jones Industrial average had fallen 2.76 per cent while Boeing's price was off 4.4 per cent. There had been large sales of the company's shares in Hong Kong. He called Boeing's financial advisers, Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street investment bank, and asked them to find out who or what was behind the selling in Hong Kong.
China Central Television, Beijing
Local time: 1900 Tuesday 20 February 2001
GMT: 1100 Tuesday 20 February 2001
The appeal from an American oil worker was picked up and rebroadcast by the BBC and CNN. Both networks broke into their scheduled programmes and ran
a ticker wire under the picture to explain what was happening. It had been the second item of the national Chinese television news. The first had been President Wang Feng meeting the visiting Foreign Minister of Iran in a villa in Zhongnanhai. The newsreader's commentary over the pictures of the two men shaking hands, then gripping each other by the elbow, spoke of the warm friendship between the two governments: `Comrade Wang Feng said the people of China and Iran had set an example for others in the developing world to follow. We can unite, and together stand up to the so-called Western powers who not only have no respect for Asian cultures but want to stop them from prospering.'
Then, against a backdrop of a map of the South China Sea, the newsreader reiterated Beijing's territorial claim. As she was speaking, the picture cut jerkily to a videotape of the oil worker, who identified himself as Jake Walker from Minnesota. His black T-shirt was torn on the right shoulder. His face was peeling from untreated sunburn. His hair was knotted and uncombed. He looked haggard and tired. He began by explaining his appearance, saying that they had had little to eat since Sunday when Chinese troops took over Discovery Reef. The food was needed for the soldiers involved in the liberation of territory.
It was that phrase ‘liberation of territory’ which set alarm bells ringing in the operation rooms in Europe and America. The background was evidence that the men were still being held on the reef. The tone of Jake Walker's message was one of humiliation for America. Here were shades of Tehran in 1979, the Beirut hostages in the 1980s, the Somalia debacle of the 1990s.
`We have made many friends among the Chinese soldiers,' Walker said. `They have explained their position, which we understand and now support. This whole problem could be solved if America, the country I love, withdraws and allows China, a country I respect and am coming to love, to recover its historical right.'
The White House, Washington, DC
Local time: 0620 Tuesday 20 February 2001
GMT: 1120 Tuesday 20 February 2001