Dragon Strike -- A Novel of the Coming War with China (Future History Book 1)

by Humphrey Hawksley

  The White House, Washington, DC

  Local time: 2100 Wednesday 14 March 2001

  GMT: 0200 Thursday 15 March 2001

  President Bradlay had just returned to Washington from a visit to Chicago. There he had reacquainted himself with the city whose terrible riots the previous summer Bradlay had stemmed and, in the process, brought himself a much needed boost in the opinion polls. He toured the Southside ghettos and spoke to civic leaders and community representatives. His Communications Director billed the speech as the most important presidential statement about urban reform since George Bush went to Los Angeles in the wake of the Rodney King riots in 1992 and promised federal aid for the inner cities. Bradlay was with advisers when Martin Weinstein, his National Security Adviser, entered with news of the Chinese attack on Taiwan.

  `This time I think they have met their match,' he said as he briefed Bradlay on the situation. He also told the President to expect a call from Prime Minister Hyashi. `He's ready to come back into the fold,' Weinstein said.

  `How should we play this, Marty? I mean, what is Wang up to here? Three weeks ago he tells me on the telephone that he will return the islands to Taiwan that they took, and now he is engaged on a hare-brained adventure against the Taiwanese. Doesn't he know Taiwan has one of the most sophisticated arsenals in Asia? What does he expect us to do? I gave my word to the American people that we were leaving the battlefield with honour. He's made a fool out of me!'

  `Mr President, your analysis is, as usual, as perceptive as ever,' said Weinstein. `But consider this. We think, and our Japanese friends agree, that Wang launched this attack in the belief that the Taiwanese military would not fight. He has been proved wrong. It is by no means certain that mainland China will prevail. The Taiwanese are well armed, and they hate the Communists. Yes, Wang has gone back on his word to you, but my recommendation is that we stand back don't want to get involved directly to support the Taiwanese with all the military hardware and advice they need.'

  Just as Weinstein finished his report the President's secretary entered the room to inform him that the Japanese Prime Minister was on the telephone.

  `Nobby, how are you?' Bradlay opened with his customary familiarity. `I'm always happy to take a call from our friends in Japan, no matter what the hour.'

  `You are too kind, Mr President,' Hyashi countered. `I'm calling, as you know, about the situation in Taiwan . . .'

  `Yes, yes . . . I know about that. What's your reading? Can the Chinese pull it off?'

  `Unlikely. Our best estimate, Jim, is that the Chinese won't be able to last much more than twenty-four hours. We think that based on faulty intelligence they have overplayed their hand.'

  `That's our assessment too, Nobby. However, I think we can take advantage of Beijing's discomfort. I know that Monroe in Tokyo has been on at you to visit Washington. We'd very much like to have you here.'

  `I've been giving some thought to our relations as well. There can, of course, be no question of Japan ever again assuming a subordinate position; however, I believe that stability in East Asia can be secured only if the United States and Japan work together. You are absolutely right when you said relations have been allowed to drift. I will be more than happy to come to Washington. It will send a strong signal in this part of the world, and one I know that will be welcomed more widely in South-East Asia . . . though not Beijing, of course.'

  Bradlay laughed. `Indeed, Nobby, indeed. Why don't we initiate this new friendship between us with a joint statement condemning the Chinese invasion of Taiwan and tie to it your forthcoming visit to Washington?'

  `An excellent idea, Jim.'

  The Taiwan Straits

  Local time: 1300 Friday 15 March 2001

  GMT: 0500 Friday 15 March 2001

  The air raid sirens wailed through the deserted streets of Taipei, the capital of Taiwan. Overhead, the skies appeared crowded with fighter aircraft engaged in a deadly game of aerial acrobatics. The mainland Chinese flew Su-27s fitted with their infra-red and radar-homing air-to-air missiles; the Taiwanese flew F-16s armed with not only the AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missile but also, having fitted a new radar, the AIM-7 Sparrow radar-guided missile. The Taiwanese pilots put in more training hours than their mainland counterpart, but, thanks to Dragonstrike, the mainland pilots were battle-hardened. The early successes went to the Su-27s. In an attempt to escape one, the pilot of an F-16 climbed vertically and, while discharging the contents of two chaff pods in the hope of confusing the approaching radar-guided missile, banked sharply right. Unfortunately he had lost energy and deployed the chaff too early. The missile relocked and plunged into the F-16. Pieces of wreckage littered the mountain which provided the protective fortress for the National Palace Museum, on the north-east outskirts of Taipei.

  But the F-16s had their day. In a dogfight that was shown on television around the world, the pilot of an F-16 shot down an Su-27. It was a classic one-to-one encounter and the Su-27, with its larger clutch of missiles, should have won. But the Taiwanese pilot knew his aircraft. The dogfight started over the presidential palace in the south-east part of Taipei. Both aircraft's radar missiles had already been fired and the infra-red homers were left. The F-16's problem was how to evade the Su-27 and its deadly arsenal. In a whirling vortex each turned at maximum G and tried to get a firing solution on the other. The human factor proved critical. The Taiwanese pilot was equipped not only with an anti-G suit, but also with partial pressure-breathing which cut in under high G. This reversed his normal breathing process, making him use conscious effort to expel oxygen from his lungs, inhaling simply by opening his mouth, the pressure filling his lungs automatically. He had practised this regularly, because it enabled him to sustain the forces of the high-G manoeuvre better than his enemy, and he steadily caught him up in the turn. He launched an infra-red missile when within the launch envelope, lock-on being signified by the characteristic growl in his headphones. This missile was decoyed by flares from the Su-27, but then the pilot made the error of reducing his turn in an effort to escape. This enabled the F-16 to fire a salvo of two further missiles just at the time it was in a perfect firing position the centre of their engagement envelopes. The first hit home on one engine, exploding the other engine as well when the warhead detonated. The other was slightly behind and detonated in the fireball.

  The Taiwanese military might have been caught unawares at the beginning of the mainland Chinese offensive, but by noon of the first day it was clear that the tables had turned decisively in Taipei's favour. 50 kilometres to the south-west, the Chinese expeditionary force of 5,000 men that landed on the coast near Hsin-chu, the country's leading site for the manufacture of semiconductors and computers, had expected to be welcomed as a liberating force by the local garrison, whose commanding general was thought to be a supporter of Beijing. But soon they found out how wrong Chinese intelligence was. They met fierce resistance from the Taiwanese garrison. The fighting was hand-to-hand and the Taiwanese had the better of it, pinning the mainlanders down on the outskirts of the town. The Chinese had badly miscalculated. Unable to land any tanks or any other vehicles of their own, their men had to defend themselves with what they had to hand. By late morning the 5,000 Chinese troops had been reduced by more than half. It was slaughter by another name. Most got lost in unfamiliar terrain. The remaining 2,000 or so troops were disorganized and holed up wherever they could find shelter including schools, a hospital, and a Buddhist temple. There were reports that some small groups of soldiers had surrendered, but these were vociferously denied by Xinhua in a noon dispatch. Reports of surrender were `vile lies' propagated the United States and its `running dog' supporters on Taiwan. But for all Xinhua's bluster even it could not conceal the fact that the campaign had not gone according to plan. In what was seen as a prelude to full-scale retreat, it said China had `taught the Taiwanese separatists a lesson'. It warned of `sterner measures', if the leaders of the island state did not respond positively to the Chinese people's yearning
for reunification.

  The White House lawn, Washington, DC

  Local time: 1130 Monday 30 April 2001

  GMT: 1630 Monday 30 April 2001

  It was a bright, sunny Washington spring morning. The cherry trees along the Potomac River were in full blossom. Prime Minister Noburo Hyashi of Japan had participated in an impromptu hanami flower-viewing picnic with Ambassador Katayama before their meeting with President Bradlay. It looked well on television and Hyashi, who had gained some of his media savvy in the weeks leading to his Washington summit with Bradlay, used it to underline the warmth of ties between Japan and America. When a reporter called out: `What about the bomb?' Hyashi, without batting an eyelid, turned and said: `Extreme situations demand extreme measures; my country sought to demonstrate the capability rather than the intention to deploy nuclear weapons. We remain opposed to the deployment of nuclear weapons.'

  The lecterns were arranged side by side on a small but adequate podium. President Bradlay was in an expansive mood, joking with reporters as he and Prime Minister Hyashi of Japan made their way to the rostrum.

  `The defence of the free world is a responsibility the United States has shouldered since the end of the Second World War. And it is a responsibility that this nation, in concert with its allies, has never taken lightly. Recent events in East Asia have focused our minds on the tasks before us of preserving freedom in that great and commercially vibrant part of our world. Prime Minister Hyashi of Japan has been our guest for the past three days. We have met on numerous occasions and have arrived at a common view on the way ahead. I am very pleased to announce that this morning Mr Hyashi and I signed a new agreement for the mutual protection of our territories. This treaty, which I hope will be speedily ratified by the Senate, reflects the concerns of both governments over the increasingly belligerent posture adopted by China. The treaty is an unequivocal warning to anyone in East Asia that the United States and Japan will act swiftly and resolutely to defend our mutual interests when those interests are threatened. We are not alone in these concerns. I've had telephone calls recently from the leaders of many South-East Asian countries expressing their concern about China's aggression. Our fight is not with the Chinese people but with the men who seek to repress them. I am telling you today that we will not stint in our determination to prevail. Thank you.'

  The East China Sea

  Local time: 0800 Tuesday 1 May 2001

  GMT: 2400 Monday 30 April 2001

  The Japanese destroyer Kirishima was on routine patrol, escorting a supertanker and assorted container ships bound for Yokohama past the Senkaku Islands. The calm of the early morning was shattered by a klaxon sounding battle stations. In the operations room the sailor operating the ship's sonar had detected the unmistakable acoustic signature of a Chinese Kilo class submarine. The Captain gave orders for the ship to come about and prepare its antisubmarine torpedoes for launch. The Kilo had opened its bow doors and appeared to be preparing to launch its torpedoes.

  AFTERMATH

  China and Japan averted further bloodshed in East Asia with a direct telephone conversation between Jamie Song and his Japanese counterpart. A joint Sino-Japanese force occupied different sectors of the Taioyu-tai Islands — but the situation remained volatile. Offers of UN observers being stationed there were refused by both governments. The United States and China made the first steps to mend fences with a large Chinese order for Boeing aircraft. An American warship visited Shanghai. But the two governments entered into a nuclear strategic arrangement of Mutually Assured Destruction reminiscent of the Cold War policy with the Soviet Union. President Wang was hailed as the New Helmsman and lauded as a worthy successor to Mao Zedong and Deng Xiao-ping. He allocated the profits from manipulating the international markets to rebuilding and streamlining the Chinese armed forces into a hi-tech modern fighting force with emphasis on missile development and naval power projection. Jamie Song resigned from politics and went back to business. He floated his company, New China Computer Inc., on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Song was a frequent visitor to the US, often to see his friend Overhalt at Boeing, and occasionally President Bradlay.

  President Bradlay was elected for a second term in 2004. He was hailed in many of the opinion polls as one of the great American presidents. He reversed the downsizing of the American armed forces and won fund allocation for ensuring the United States' position as the most powerful country in the world. The New Communist Party was hunted down by the Chinese security forces. Eleven ringleaders were jailed for between 13 and 20 years. Two, who were accused of carrying firearms, were executed with a single bullet in the back of the head. Five members, arrested in Hong Kong, were taken straight across the border to China, so they could receive harsher sentences and prison conditions. There were no objections from Hong Kong's legislative council or from the media which by now was controlled by Chinese interests. In the same way, the government in Taiwan ruthlessly wiped out any pro-Communist elements in the armed forces and political life. The New Party was destroyed. Vietnam declared its war with China a victory. In official announcements there was no mention of the French assistance. French companies were awarded contracts to modernize the roads, railways, and port facilities. The anniversary of the second battle of Lang Son was commemorated as a national holiday. South Korea ruled the north as a colony until 2003 when official unification was declared. In the interim, South Korean companies invested heavily in North Korea and built up the infrastructure. The workforce was disciplined and cheap. By November 2001, all American troops had left the peninsula.

  The Far East remained a flashpoint for a Pacific war. Each country in the region made sure that next time it would be better prepared.

  Table of Contents

  About the Author(s)

  PREFACE

  PREFACE TO THE PAPERBACK EDITION

  CHRONOLOGY OF EVENTS

  ONE

  TWO

  THREE

  FOUR

  FIVE

  SIX

  SEVEN

  EIGHT

  AFTERMATH