New Madrid Earthquake

by Bobby Akart

  Twenty-seven aftershocks were felt from the first earthquake in intervals of every six to ten minutes. Then came what was known as the Daylight Shock. Sometimes referred to as the Dawn Shock, the M7 aftershock struck at 7:15 that morning with an epicenter in northeast Arkansas. Over the next twenty-four hours, three more large aftershocks jolted the NMSZ, bearing intensities from M6 to M6.5.

  January 23, 1812

  The second principal shock of the earthquake sequence was determined to be an M7.3 at approximately 9:15 a.m. on January 23. The epicenter was New Madrid, Missouri, on the banks of the Mississippi River. Although it was the smallest of the three mainshocks, it resulted in widespread ground deformation, landslides, fissuring, and the rerouting of the Mississippi River.

  Some geophysicists hypothesized that this mainshock resulted in the rupturing of the New Madrid north fault. This rupturing is credited with extending the fault line and the boundaries of the NMSZ into Illinois. In 2011, an independent expert panel convened by the USGS found that an extended section of the New Madrid fault exists. Further, they hypothesized this north fault in Illinois is still loaded and capable of hosting a great earthquake in the near future.

  February 7, 1812

  It had only been a little over seven weeks since the first earthquake struck the NMSZ. The estimated M7.6 quake was also the largest in intensity because of its proximity to the Reelfoot fault that extended from the New Madrid fault in Missouri, under the Mississippi River and into West Tennessee.

  This final mainshock in the sequence destroyed the town of New Madrid. To the north, homes were severely damaged, and brick structures in St. Louis were toppled. The reverse fault that ran under the river resulted in significant uplift on the Tennessee side. The rise of the ground elevation created temporary waterfalls on the river and a tsunami wave that propagated upstream.

  The tremendous upheaval along this fault resulted in the formation of Reelfoot Lake, a twenty-three-square-mile body of water in Obion County, Tennessee. It also caused the Mississippi River to run backward, a scientific phenomenon known as a fluvial tsunami.

  1812–1900

  The NMSZ has not rested since. Hundreds of aftershocks were felt for several years through 1817. Later in the nineteenth century, an M6 occurred on January 4, 1843, and an M6.6 was felt on Halloween of 1895. The 1895 seismic event, with an epicenter at Charleston, Missouri, damaged all the buildings in the city, created sand volcanoes in the surrounding fields, and cracked a pier as far north as the Cairo Bridge in Illinois.

  Recent Seismic Activity

  There are geologists who opine that the quake sequence of 1811–12 continues to put off aftershocks. They believe the rift system beneath the Mississippi River Valley that failed to split the continent many millions of years ago has remained a scar, or zone of weakness, deep underground. These ancient faults appear to have made Earth’s crust in the NMSZ mechanically weaker than the rest of North America.

  As evidence of this and the expansion of the fault into Illinois, they point to an M5.5 earthquake in November of 1968, centered near Dale, Illinois, a small community located sixty miles west of Evansville, Indiana. The quake was felt in twenty-three states, including cities as far away as Boston, Massachusetts and Charleston, South Carolina.

  Just a dozen years ago, in the nearby Wabash Valley, a similar M5.4 quake with its epicenter in Illinois occurred. Since 1974 when the first seismic instruments were installed in the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone where the scientists believe the north fault line of the NMSZ extends, there have been over four thousand earthquakes recorded.

  What if Fiction Becomes Reality?

  In 1999, FEMA identified four hazards in the U.S. that would be categorized as the worst-of-the-worst likely catastrophic natural disasters. They were a major hurricane hitting Miami, a major hurricane hitting New Orleans, a significant earthquake hitting LA, and a giant earthquake hitting the Central U.S. in the New Madrid Seismic Zone.

  In 2008, FEMA issued a report warning that a serious earthquake in the NMSZ could result in the highest economic losses due to a natural disaster in the history of the country. They predicted widespread and catastrophic damages in a dozen states near the NMSZ. Tens of thousands of fatalities should be expected, and that’s if only a single earthquake were to occur.

  The potential for a reoccurrence of the type of earthquake swarm that struck the NMSZ in 1811–12 resulted in an increased monitoring of ground motion and the study of past quakes to gauge their potential for destruction in modern times.

  In October 2009, a research team consisting of scientists from the University of Illinois and Virginia Tech considered a scenario where all three segments of the New Madrid fault ruptured simultaneously with a total magnitude of M7.7, similar in size to the two largest mainshocks of the 1811–12 sequence. Their report revealed dire results.

  Eighty-six thousand casualties. Over seven hundred thousand damaged structures. Over seven million people displaced. And the impact zone would stretch far beyond the states comprising the NMSZ. The overall direct economic loss would approach half a trillion dollars.

  At the NEIC in Golden, the primary concern of geophysicists is that the small earthquakes of the last two hundred years don’t seem to be diminishing in number or intensity. Therefore, they don’t believe they are mere aftershocks of the 1811–12 quake sequence.

  In 2009, the USGS issued a fact sheet stating a probability estimate of ten percent for a New Madrid earthquake of M7+ by 2059. The probability of an M6+ rose to nearly forty percent during that time frame.

  In 2018, just nine years later, the fact sheet was updated, as was the risk assessment. The National Seismic Hazard Model now states an estimate of twenty percent for M7+ and fifty percent for M6+. In addition, a new probability estimate was added—M8+ at two percent.

  An M8+ quake has never been recorded outside of Alaska. Yet the USGS scientists now believe there is a probability, albeit slight, that it could happen.

  God help us when it does.

  A Few Insider Tidbits About the Novel

  Writing is fun. Seriously, there is nothing about the process of creating, researching, writing, and publishing a novel that I don’t like. The best part about becoming an author has been the friendships I’ve been fortunate enough to create with readers and social media acquaintances. Many of my readers have been with me since I published The Loyal Nine in the Summer of 2015.

  I like to reward them with literary Easter eggs—a nod or a message in my novel that references another story already published, or to be published in the future. Like many authors, I insert personal anecdotes into the story. Let me give you a glimpse at a few examples.

  This story was set in the days leading up to Christmas. Dani and I love Christmastime. We enjoy watching Hallmark Christmas movies; decorating our home; and adorning our tree with Shiny Brite ornaments. We have a few from my dearly departed mom who was born and raised in Germany. We’ve collected many others over the years. I was glad to be able to work all of this into the story.

  As a kid, I used to ride my bicycle to work at a golf course near my home. In order to get there, I had to ride through the campus of Webb School of Knoxville. I added Webb to the story to play against Tate’s high school for the state football championship.

  Another note, or Easter egg, actually. Tate greatly admired his new coach who’d come to his school from Savannah, Tennessee—Joe Carey. Not only is Joe Carey the same Coach Carey depicted in the Blackout series, he is also a real person and a dear friend. You’ll note that he’s on my team of advance readers.

  Now, for some Easter eggs that cross-reference to my fifty currently-published novels. I’m not gonna give you the ones related to future stories. One day, they’ll strike a chord and you’ll remember.

  In Chapter 4, Oliver is updating Dr. Lansing on Mother Earth's condition. He referenced ash from an active volcano in Chile floating toward the quaint town of Bariloche. San Carlos de Bariloche, Argentina, is one of the key locations i
n the Odessa trilogy featuring Gunner Fox.

  In Chapter 31, Jill and the kids arrive at the FEMA staging area at THE BLVD, a well-known church in Memphis. She referenced working with a woman following the damage caused by an asteroid colliding with the planet years prior. The asteroid, IM-86, was a reference to the planet killer in Gunner Fox’s Asteroid trilogy.

  In Chapter 42, while Jill is seeking out her neighbors to learn what she could about the first earthquake, the second quake hits. As she runs home, she is chased by an emerging fissure that swallows trees, a riding lawn mower, and a red Kia parked in a driveway. Readers of 36 Hours, book one in the Blackout series, might recall an offending Kia that got in the way of Madison Ryman's Suburban.

  Speaking of the Blackout series, if there ever came a time where all of my characters got together for a reunion, of sorts, I’d love to see Alex Ryman and Tate Atwood become close. You see, I’m a hopeless romantic.

  In Chapter 43, I described the earthquake as fighting like a bedeviled bull trying to throw famed rodeo star Cooper Armstrong off his back. Cooper Armstrong, a fictional rodeo star and the oldest of the Armstrong’s rodeo kids, was one of the primary characters in the Lone Star series.

  In Chapter 56, as Beth was in labor, her mind wandered to the pioneer days when women gave birth without the aid of a hospital, or even a doctor. She thought of Daniel Boone's wife who gave birth while her husband and brother Squire were off exploring Kentucky and Indiana. This is a cross-reference to the Geostorm series. The characters were direct descendants of Squire Boone and lived in Southeast Indiana near Mauckport.

  Mauckport is also an Easter egg. Once again, in Chapter 33, as Dr. Lansing is being briefed on the extent of the earthquake outside of the New Madrid Seismic Zone, reference was made to the intensity of the quake at Mauckport, Indiana.

  Now, a not-so-proud anecdote. In the early part of the novel, I wrote about a life-changing experience Jack had while riding in a friend’s car in Fort Lauderdale. This came from my own experience as a teen when I sat in the passenger seat of a 1977 Pontiac Trans Am driven by my friend Mike. To this day, I don’t know how I lived through those few seconds.

  Finally, a note about the Butterfly People. I have not personally experienced the Butterfly People but I am certain I’ve had either angels or the hand of God himself protecting me throughout my life. If you’re interested, search Butterfly People of Joplin, Missouri. The stories from the children who survived a vicious tornado in May 2011 (near the same time as the Memphis floods written about in this novel) will warm your heart.

  Until next time …

  Godspeed Patriots and Choose Freedom!

  Bobby

  SIGN UP for my mailing list at BobbyAkart.com to receive a copy of my monthly newsletter, The Epigraph. You’ll also learn about special offers, bonus content, and you’ll be the first to receive news about new releases.

  VISIT my feature page at Amazon.com/BobbyAkart for more information on my novels or any of my other bestselling action-packed thrillers, which includes over forty Amazon #1 bestsellers in forty-plus fiction and nonfiction genres.

  Acknowledgments

  Creating a novel that is both informative and entertaining requires a tremendous team effort. Writing is the easy part.

  For their efforts in making New Madrid a reality, I would like to thank Hristo Argirov Kovatliev for his incredible artistic talents in creating my cover art. He and Dani collaborate (and conspire) to create the most incredible cover art in the publishing business. A huge hug of appreciation goes out to Pauline Nolet, the Professor, for her editorial prowess and patience in correcting this writer’s same tics after fifty-plus novels. Thanks again to the newest member of the team, Drew Avera, a United States Navy veteran, who has brought his talented formatting skills from a writer’s perspective to create multiple formats for reading my novels. Finally, the incredibly talented, award-winning performer Stacey Glemboski brings my words to life in audio format.

  Now, for the serious stuff. Telling New Madrid’s story required countless hours of never-ending research and interviews of some of the brightest minds in the world of geophysics.

  Once again, as I immersed myself in the science and history, source material and research flooded my inbox from around America. Without the assistance of many individuals and organizations, this story could not be told. Please allow me a moment to acknowledge a few of those individuals whom, without their tireless efforts and patience, New Madrid could not have been written.

  Many thanks to the seismologists and research geophysicists at the National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, Colorado, who’ve indulged my questions and theories over the last several years as I prepared to write this novel. You guys put the fear of God into me that afternoon in 2016, prompting me to write this book. In that same vein, a note of appreciation to Brian Shiro, associate director of the Geologic Hazards Science Center, who pointed me in the right direction with my inquiries.

  A shout-out to Mike Lynch and Keith Hautula of the Kentucky Geological Survey and the University of Kentucky Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences is in order. They’ve continued decades of research into the NMSZ at the KGS. Thanks for allowing me access to the real-time recordings of seismic activity within the NMSZ so I can see what’s happening beneath Earth’s surface through the eyes of seismologists.

  At the USGS, Reston campus, a debt of appreciation must go out to the folks in the Publications Warehouse, who helped me compile actual news accounts of the 1811–12 seismic event at New Madrid. Will Seffner, Natalia Korava, and Dave Mason are the best! I hope you’ll peruse the news articles and private correspondence compiled in the back of the print editions.

  New Madrid, like many of my other novels, could not have been written without the support of my contacts at the USGS and Jet Propulsion Laboratory … Thanks to you all!

  To my friends at GeoScienceWorld in McLean, Virginia, who helped guide me during my initial research into the subjects of earthquakes, volcanoes, and anything else going on under our feet. You folks are way smarter than I am!

  Finally, as always, a special thank you to my team of loyal friends who’ve always supported my work and provided me valuable insight from a reader’s perspective—Denise Keef, Joe Carey, Shirley Nicholson, Bennita Barnett, Karl Hughey, Brian Alderman, Martin McDonell, Cody McDonell, Colt Payne, Leslie Bryant, Melonie Kennedy, Diane Ash, and Carol Dyer.

  Thank you all!

  Choose Freedom and Godspeed, Patriots!

  About the Author, Bobby Akart

  Author Bobby Akart has been ranked by Amazon as #25 on the Amazon Charts list of most popular, bestselling authors. He has achieved recognition as the #1 bestselling Horror Author, #1 bestselling Science Fiction Author, #5 bestselling Action & Adventure Author, #7 bestselling Historical Fiction Author and #10 on Amazon’s bestselling Thriller Author list.

  Mr. Akart has delivered up-all-night thrillers to readers in 245 countries and territories worldwide. He has sold over one million books in all formats, which includes over forty international bestsellers, in nearly fifty fiction and nonfiction genres.

  His novel Yellowstone: Hellfire reached the Top 25 on the Amazon bestsellers list and earned him multiple Kindle All-Star awards for most pages read in a month and most pages read as an author. The Yellowstone series vaulted him to the #25 bestselling author on Amazon Charts, and the #1 bestselling science fiction author.

  Mr. Akart is a graduate of the University of Tennessee after pursuing a dual major in economics and political science. He went on to obtain his master’s degree in business administration and his doctorate degree in law at Tennessee.

  Mr. Akart has provided his readers a diverse range of topics that are both informative and entertaining. His attention to detail and impeccable research has allowed him to capture the imagination of his readers through his fictional works and bring them valuable knowledge through his nonfiction books.

  SIGN UP for Bobby Akart’s mailing list to receive a copy
of his monthly newsletter, The Epigraph, learn of special offers, view bonus content, and be the first to receive news about new releases featuring Gunner Fox and the Gray Fox team.

  Visit www.BobbyAkart.com for details.

  Other Works by Amazon Charts Top 25 Author Bobby Akart

  New Madrid (a disaster thriller)

  Odessa (a Gunner Fox trilogy)

  Odessa Reborn

  Odessa Rising

  Odessa Strikes

  The Virus Hunters

  Virus Hunters I

  Virus Hunters II

  Virus Hunters III

  The Geostorm Series

  The Shift

  The Pulse

  The Collapse

  The Flood

  The Tempest

  The Pioneers

  The Asteroid Series (A Gunner Fox trilogy)

  Discovery

  Diversion

  Destruction

  The Doomsday Series

  Apocalypse

  Haven

  Anarchy

  Minutemen

  Civil War

  The Yellowstone Series

  Hellfire

  Inferno

  Fallout

  Survival

  The Lone Star Series