The Samurai Strategy

by Thomas Hoover

  CHAPTER TWENTY-ONE

  Tsukuba Science City can be awe-inspiring or a specter, depending onhow you choose to look at it. The time was Wednesday morning, and Tamand I were viewing the place through the tinted windows of MatsuoNoda's personal DNI limo, the black Nissan she knew so well. From thevantage of an elevated freeway packed with rows of sleek Hondas andToyotas sparkling in the cold December sunshine, we could see thesilhouettes of cluster after cluster of modernistic concrete towers, anurban complex of a hundred and fifty thousand souls rising above whatwas, only a few short years ago, mostly farms. Be that as it may, takemy word for it that nobody's growing radishes there today. ScienceCity, nestled in the foothills of Mt. Tsukuba some fifty kilometersnortheast of downtown Tokyo, represents a government investment,including the industrial park once the site of Expo '85, of over thirtybillion dollars.

  Tsukuba is holy ground, the place of heroes, where kamikazes oncetrained for their suicide missions against the American fleet. Now itis one of the largest research centers in the world, with almost tenthousand scientists and fifty separate laboratories and scientificinstitutes. As we neared the first complex, I tried to make sense ofall the Dali-esque curved buildings that housed Japan's new braintrust. From the outside you can tell something is going on, but itseems secretive and proprietary. It is. The thing I had to keepreminding myself, though, was that none of this was for militaryboondoggles. It was aimed dead-on at industrial technology. E.g.,there's research here on high-energy lasers all right, but they're notintended for zapping some hypothetical Soviet satellite; they're partof the world's largest laser-radar telescope, which can project beamsout more than thirty miles to analyze air quality. In short, the workhere was applications-oriented, practical, and--get a firm grip on yourwallet-- commercial.

  Together with Noda and his bodyguard/chauffeur we were headed for theElectrotechnical Institute, where he was about to give us our firstglimpse of Japan's new high-tech empire. That lab just so happened tobe the place where heavy work was underway on applications of theartificial intelligence effort of Kenji Asano's Fifth Generation shop.It was merely the first stop, however, in an odyssey Noda claimed wouldtake us through the hidden heart of Japan's industrial future.

  Noda reported he had spoken with Kenji Asano, who was unfortunatelytied up in meetings and couldn't join us until tomorrow. Thus Tam hadnot yet had her chance to hear his account of MITI's sudden newinterest in Dai Nippon's program. All the same, Noda claimed to welcomeKen's arrival.

  "Whatever concerns you may have, I'm sure he will be more than happy toaddress them," declared the president of Dai Nippon.

  Tam had tried on her own to reach Ken at his office, without success.Maybe, I thought to myself, he just didn't want to talk. In any casethat quandary remained unresolved.

  The way I saw the situation, though, we had enough to deal with merelygetting through today. Noda's game was no longer a game. He was goingto take us to the top of the mountain, show us the other side, and then. . . what? Whatever it was, that part would have to be handled in duetime. For now his intentions seemed to be to drive home a singularpoint: if you think Dai Nippon has been playing hardball with money,wait till you see Japan's real action. He was going to lay bare theempire, the awesome machine he now had at his command. The payoff ofTsukuba, he explained, was intended to be nothing less than totaltechnological supremacy.

  The limo was slowing to a stop in front of an oddly shaped concretebuilding, brand-new, that covered several acres with cones and hexagonsand various geometries. We'd arrived.

  "This is the Electrotechnical Institute, research center for Japan'sAdvanced Robot Technology Project." He pointed. The laboratory appearedto be somebody's idea of what architecture would be in the twenty-firstcentury, a sort of Japanese spaceship splattered across a vast acreage."The work underway here and over at the Mechanical Engineering lab isintended to coordinate all government and private research onindustrial robots."

  He stepped out and motioned for us to join him. Our top- secret tourhad begun. As we walked toward the main entryway, he delivered anopening summary.

  "Here we have allocated twenty billion yen, about a hundred and fiftymillion dollars, for an eight-year research program to perfect a rangeof industrial robots." He continued while we walked past the small graymetallic sign, in both Japanese and English, that identified theInstitute. "It is being closely coordinated with the spin-offs of theFifth Generation AI work."

  I noticed that no guards were posted, though the metal doors weretightly sealed. Noda didn't bother to take out a key as he proceeded."The Advanced Robot Technology Project coordinates the research of overtwenty corporations as well as R&D at various universities, and thislab is where we integrate all the results of that work."

  "You mean different parts or robots are being created at separateresearch operations, then brought together here?" I probably shouldn'thave been surprised by the tight, nationwide coordination. TypicalJapan.

  "Precisely. Robots have a multiplicity of elements. There aremanipulators, the mechanical versions of our hands; then there are thesenses of vision and touch; and finally there is movement, locomotion.Each of these is being developed individually, then combined here. Forexample, if a robot is to understand voice commands--in effect makingits operator a programmer--then it must incorporate the speechrecognition work of the Fifth Generation Project, which will supply theeyes, the ears, the brain."

  Maybe that's where Asano comes in, I thought. Could it be he's thepoint man here for artificial intelligence, on board to overseecreating the computerized brains for all these babies. Was he yetanother DNI operative, witting or unwitting, just as Tam and I hadbeen?

  Noda's lecture was still underway. "The first generation of robots doesthings by rote, the same motion repeated dumbly over and over again.What we call the second generation are those with crude sensingabilities, perhaps touch pads or video, though they are stillstationary." He placed his hand over a small screen by the door. Alight flashed under his palm---presumably allowing a computer somewhereto analyze his handprint--and a second later the door slid open. Then hecontinued, "The goal of the work here is a third-generation robot. Youmight almost call it a functional 'android,' since it will be able tomove, see, and think much as we do. Whether it will actually look likea human is another matter, but that's not necessarily even a usefulobjective."

  Intelligent monsters in silicon and steel, I found myself thinking. Allour fantasies, or nightmares, come to life.

  I didn't have to look far to see that they were already in the womb. Wewere entering the main laboratory floor now, surrounded by what seemeda Martian landscape of mechanical creatures. The place was bustling,yet spotless as a hospital ward. Noda acknowledged the deep bows ofseveral of the shirt-sleeved staff, then continued.

  "Although visitors are not normally permitted in the sensitive areashere, I have arranged total-access priority for you both. I consideryou among the few Americans today who can understand the strategicsignificance of this program."

  If Matsuo Noda was really saying that he intended to give us a soberingdose of Japan's impending high-tech clout, he was off to a bang-upstart.

  Then he turned and greeted a short, white-uniformed man. "Allow me tointroduce Dr. Noburu Matsugami, who is senior staff specialist for theprogram here. Dr. Matsugami will be your guide today."

  Matsugami was close to fifty and balding, with short- cropped hair thatseemed to stand out on the sides of his head like the bristles of ametal brush. He was bowing to Noda every other second, as though he'djust been summoned by God. He attempted a smile, then greeted us inJapanese, followed by accented English.

  I surveyed the floor--steel and aluminum and computers-- feeling as if Icould have been on another planet. Tam, strangely, had said scarcely aword the whole time. She probably knew about a lot of this, but surelynot the proprietary, advanced devices.

  Noda's glimpse of Japan's industrial "Manhattan Project" was one of themost memorable experiences of my life. Alth
ough I suspect the deviceshe let Matsugami show us were just the toys, they still were enough toleave no doubt where things were headed.

  Without going into the classified details, let me attempt to describe afew of the items I still remember. I was particularly impressed by theWaseda University/Hitachi walking robot WHL-II, which uses advancedmachine technology and computer control to move just as a human does,two-legged style. Its hydraulic steel joints and carbon-fiber muscles,together with its computerized foot sensors, give it walking skillsbetter than most young humans'. Its brain of course is amicroprocessor, programmed to let it walk in different styles, just aswe do. Other mobile robots had four legs, even six--such as the TitanIII, which we saw climb up a set of stairs like a metallic sci-fispider.

  As for robot hands, the most advanced also were from Hitachi'smechanical engineering research lab. Unlike most robot grippers, littlemore than glorified vises, this one had three fingers (which Matsugamiclaimed were more agile than a version at MIT) whose "muscles" were aheat-sensitive metal (invented in the U.S.) that would contract when anelectric current passed through.

  Vision research was also well advanced. A Matsushita robot equippedwith a computerized "eye" was able to analyze the lines and shadows ofa human face and then draw a black-and- white sketch like a sidewalkartist. Even more amazing, a robot with a TV-camera eye--developedjointly by Waseda University and Sumitomo Electric--could read sheetmusic and play it on a keyboard using mechanical fingers. This androidpianist employed recent advances in artificial intelligence todetermine the best fingering for each phrase and even took requests fortunes in spoken Japanese. Play it again, HAL. Other robots with "voicerecognition" capability allowed a human operator simply to sit in onespot and command the mobile machine where to go and what to do.

  At one point Tam asked Matsugami for a candid opinion on how far alonghe thought the Advanced Robot-Technology Program had progressed. Well,he replied, sucking in his breath pensively, the manual dexterityproblem was about licked: the robot arms now being perfected could pickup anything and move it anywhere. Vision and programmable intelligencewere harder, but he felt their research was getting close. Already hehad robots that could analyze and interpret 3-D objects and scenes,enabling them to maneuver around a factory floor and make decisions ofalmost human complexity. The ultimate objective was factory-widesystems for Computer-Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) that would allowevery operation of a company, from design to engineering tomanufacturing, to be controlled by computer via a single data base. Itwas cheap, and it elevated quality control to a hundred percent. Nodoubt about it, he said, as Japan moved to automate manufacturing andget on with an information- industry future, these smart robots wouldbe their secret weapon.

  The Institute's mechanical menagerie, I realized, was what the nextcentury was going to look like. Except it was here now. As Matsugamitook us through lab after lab, it became clear that the Japanese"third-generation" functionoid robot was all but a reality.

  Noda's message was clear. Already Japan was spending twice as much onnew manufacturing technology as America was. They led the world inrobotics and that lead was growing. With the coming of that thirdgeneration--robots that could

  see, move, and think--world industrial leadership would be up for grabs.These were the stakes Japan was betting on the twenty-first century.Anybody who planned to play against them better have something on thetable too.

  At the end of the tour as dusk was beginning to settle in, Nodareappeared and escorted us back to the limo. And that's when he laid itout.

  "Dr. Richardson, what you and Mr. Walton have just seen is merely aglimpse of the real peril to America's future." He was closing the doorof the car. "There is much, much more . . . projects such as the rapidcommercialization of superconductivity. America's world supremacy is ata crossroads."

  "Why are you showing us this?" Tam was still troubled by the samequestion that was eating at me.

  "Very simple, really. Thus far we have, together, attempted to addresssome of the more egregious ineptitudes in America's corporatemanagement. Our success in that, if I may say, has already beensubstantial. However, the best-managed organization cannot flourishwithout the tools required to take it the next step. That translates astechnology." He paused, then looked at us both. "Do you understand whatI'm saying?"

  "Japan now has the technology, just as it has the money," Tam answered.

  "You are correct. Thus far Dai Nippon has merely provided a conduit toinfuse capital into the American industrial scene. That was the easypart. The task remaining will be much more difficult." He looked at us."Difficult because, for this, America must share in return."

  "You want to make a deal, I take it." I finally spoke. Funny, but Ithought I sounded a little like Faust beginning negotiations with thedevil.

  He smiled. "That is a blunt way of describing what I am about tosuggest, Mr. Walton, but it does capture the spirit of my proposal.America excels in basic research, Japan in applied research, inengineering. The time has come to join forces."

  "How?"

  "As you have seen, the monetary resources at Dai Nippon's disposal makeit possible for us to wield significant influence." He smiled."Japanese capital has been brought to America; Japanese technology canbe brought as well."

  "At a price."

  "At a price, yes. But a modest one really." He smiled again, thenbuzzed for his driver to start the car. "Let me put it like this. Ifyou choose to proceed with me in the next step of Dai Nippon's program,I will arrange for everything you have seen today to be my gift toAmerica. All I ask from you both is complete cooperation in the daysahead. Together we can forge an informal alliance between Japan andAmerica that could alter the course of world history. But it must bedone in an atmosphere of complete trust."

  Tam was astonished. "You'd make this manufacturing technology availableto American industry? Why?"

  "As part of a quid pro quo, Dr. Richardson. It's quite simple. Inreturn I would expect complete access to the R&D in the firms DaiNippon has acquired." He stared back through his rimless glasses."Which, I gather, is a notion you find a trifle unsettling."

  You bastard, I thought. You did have my phone tapped. How else couldyou have known what she was thinking?

  She shot me a telling glance. "How does all this fit in with the newMITI guidance we're suddenly getting?"

  "That is a separate matter, Dr. Richardson, which we will address indue course. What I am concerned with now is something else entirely--thefinal step in restoring America to economic health. The firstrequirement was long-term capital and better management, which DaiNippon has now begun to provide. The next is technology, a smallforetaste of which I have shown you today."

  Was this, I wondered, the big picture, the _kan _we'd been trying toget a handle on?

  "What I'm proposing," Noda continued, "is that together we becomepartners in the creation of a massive Japanese- American consortium.Perhaps we could call it Nipponica."

  "Nipponica?" She kept her tone even.

  "The name has an interesting ring to it, does it not? As I envision theorganization, you would be its American CEO." He paused. "I would chairthe board." Then he turned to me. "And you, Mr. Walton, could beinvaluable as chief corporate counsel."

  The man had gone totally mad. Or had he?

  "I still don't understand how this venture could be brought together.You'd be dealing with hundreds of companies, a worldwide managementheadache."

  "Mr. Walton, what other choice do we have? Given the precipitousdecline of America's global leadership, together with Japan's economicand technological rise, there can be only two possible outcomes of theinevitable direction affairs are headed: bankruptcy for us both, orwar. The time has come for risk-taking, for a belief in the humanspirit. We each need the other more than our political leaders canallow themselves to admit, and thus steps must be taken outside normaldiplomatic channels to bring us closer together." He continued, inperfect form, "Both America and Japan would benefit from a comminglingof our ind
ustry and research. We would learn from each other, findstrength in unity, realize a common perspective on global concerns. Oureconomies would be joined, our peoples united. Instead of friction andthe saber rattling of trade disputes, we would have the harmony of asingle enterprise."

  "Who exactly is going to finance and operate this undertaking?" I waslistening to him describe his planned-for Utopia with increasingskepticism. But he had already rocked America, and Japan, to the core.Not a man to underestimate.

  "As you might suppose, Dai Nippon would, by virtue of its presentsituation, be ideally suited to lay the groundwork." He glanced out thetinted windows. "Afterward the political processes of both countrieswould naturally have no choice but to follow our lead, ratifying--asthey always do--conditions that have already become a _fait accompli_."

  It had all the easy resonance of a grand historical venture, except . .. except what if this was still _ken_, superficialities, not _kan_, thereal truth?

  "Before we go any further, I think Dr. Richardson and I should talkthis over." I looked up to see the Tsukuba Hotel, where we werescheduled to stay overnight. Noda had made other accommodations forhimself, saying he also needed to drop by the Metallurgy Lab and checkto see how work was going on the sword. My scheduled viewing was to betomorrow.

  "I agree." Tam looked at me sharply. "We can discuss this more in themorning."

  "As you wish." The limo was pulling to a stop. "Tomorrow should be aninteresting day for you both. We can continue our discussions then." Hesmiled. "However, be aware that time is of the essence."

  With that parting shot, the long black Nissan sped away.

  "Tam, let's see if this place has a bar. I need a drink."

  "Double." She was carrying the small overnight bag Noda's New Yorkstaff had handed her as we left. I had one too, just a shirt andessentials.

  The hotel saloon was modernistic, vinyl, and leaned heavily towardJapanese beer and Suntory whiskey. By now some middle-level executiveswere getting off work at the labs and dropping in to start their usualevening round of drinking, but at this early hour it was still sparselyoccupied.

  We headed for a comer table and ordered a couple of draft Kirin. Afterthe beers arrived, we got down to brass tacks.

  What the hell was Noda's real agenda?

  Two heads, so the saying goes, are better than one. I don't know, couldbe they're worse. Because as Tam and I sat there, Noda's offer to headup some kind of new world consortium dangling before us, what our twoheads came up with was the scariest thing that'd ever crossed my path.

  Maybe it was the thought of America's working stiffs, whose jobs Nodasupposedly was so determined to save. Trouble was, I didn't buy that inthe slightest anymore. So what made any sense?

  Simple. Why not the most obvious answer of all? Noda wasn't doing thisfor them. Or for Japan. That wasn't his game. Noda was planning thisgrand design for Noda.

  "Tam." I sipped at my beer. "Did you believe a word of what he said?"

  "Of course not. At least not the United Nations speech. It's purehogwash."

  "Totally agree. But he's about to do something big, I'm convinced."

  "Got any ideas."

  Luckily the place was getting noisier now, so nobody could have beenlistening even if they'd tried. Which was the very reason I wanted totalk in the bar and not in either of our rooms. Who knew the reach ofNoda's electronic ears?

  "Not really. But what if we stepped back a second and tried looking atthis latest move from a longer view. Maybe we've been tangled up in thetrees, missing the forest."

  "We've seen plenty of forest lately."

  "But what if it's the wrong one? Let's try the _teki ni naru to iu koto_strategy, become the enemy. Pretend for a minute we're Noda, a guywho's got it all--money, clout, everything. So why

  does he all of a sudden want to come across the Pacific and buy himselfa load of industrial headaches, then hand them Japan's technology?"

  "It's MITI somehow. I'm convinced that's the key. Which is why I'mgoing to nail Ken."

  "Well, let's not jump to conclusions. I'm wondering. What if Dai Nipponis taking over American industry not because it's strategic to MITI asthose memos we found would lead us to think. What if the reason isbecause it's strategic to Noda?"

  "But why?"

  "What if his relationship to that ministry is something totallydifferent from what it seems?"

  "Well, if MITI's not behind the buy-ups, then who're they for?"

  I sat a minute, again trying to think like Noda. "What if this scenariois actually aimed at . . . what if it's a global power play?"

  She looked at me skeptically. "I don't get it."

  "Okay, granted it sounds crazy, but let's chase that for a minute. Ithink we agree this whole scenario is not what he wants it to seem. Sowhat are some of the other things in all this that aren't what theyappear to be? Does anything dovetail?" I sat musing a second, searchingfor an opening. "What are some of the twists about Japan that'reobviously misleading?"

  "Well, acceptance of _gaijin_, for one. It goes only so far, then stopslike a brick wall." She was obviously speaking from personalexperience.

  "Maybe that's because they've always been isolated. Some things neverchange," I pondered aloud. "Which is probably the secret of theirsuccess. Take the ruling clique. Sure, Japan is a democracy, but is itreally? Not the way we understand the word. What they actually have,after you get past all the slogans, is just a retread of the oldsystem. The truth is it's still run as it was a thousand years ago. Bythe old families, the old money. Elections never decide issues. They'rehandled by the power structure. Half the seats in the Diet arepractically hereditary, going back generations in the same family.There's only one real political party. The ministries are fiefdoms. Imean, the goddam country is still feudal. They don't even have a wordfor democracy. They had to borrow it. _Demokurasu_."

  "Well, Japan's a pragmatic place. The old ways work. Remember the_zaibatsu_, those industrial conglomerates that ran the war machine?MacArthur dismantled them, but they reappeared almost as soon as heleft."

  "Right, the power structure restored those right away. The zaibatsu areback and chewing up world commerce. But the _demokurasu_ eyewash isstill around. The job's not finished."

  She stared around the room. "Matt, I don't like where I think you'reheaded."

  "I agree it's sick, but let's push it a little more. What is it aboutJapan that's made it such a dynamo the last couple of decades?"

  "Hard work, organization, drive."

  "Exactly. But where did that come from?"

  "They had to have it. Over the centuries most Japanese were dirt poor.They had to hustle just to survive. Matthew, Japan is a collectivistsociety driven by capitalism, an idea so alien to the West nobody caneven see it."

  "Perfect description. Only problem is, all this _demokurasu _is sooneror later going to start cutting away the very thing that's made Japanso successful--a country powered by obedient, collective action andglued together by hierarchy and tradition."

  "You're saying Noda wants to turn back the clock?"

  "Don't know. But what if these industrialists, these _zaibatsu_honchos, are fed up with having to deal with all the cumbersome_demokurasu_ machinery. And they're especially fed up with a certainministry making them jump the hoop. Tam, what if Noda's real agenda isto go to America and buy himself a gun to hold to MITI's head."

  "You don't think he's buying America's companies to help MITI?" Shelooked unconvinced.

  "If I had money to bet, I'd almost be willing to put it on thepossibility he's buying leverage to use against MITI and through themthe whole inefficient government setup. How come MITI's suddenlysending staff over to look in on Noda's play? Could it be somebodythere's figured out what he's up to and they want to head him off? Theyrealize Matsuo Noda is the only man on the planet who could conceivablybeat MITI at its own game? Bring it to its knees? First he acquiredcontrol of half the capital in Japan, then he came to the U.S. andstarted grabbing up all the R&D that'll be com
peting with MITI throughthe end of the century. When he's got it, he'll have a power base tomatch theirs. He's set to call the new tune."

  "Which is?"

  "Who knows? But try this for an agenda: time to cut the crap, Noda'sthinking, get rid of all the clumsy Western-style _demokurasu_ charade,tighten up, lean and mean. Go back to the only system that's everreally clicked for Japan. Imperial rule. Make the 'Land of the Gods'sacred and invincible."

  "This is getting wild." She lowered her voice. "But maybe . . . maybeyou could be right. He just happens to locate the Imperial sword, andsuddenly the emperor is resurrected from a discredited figurehead backto a symbol of Japan's greatness."

  "Here comes that old-time religion. Everybody goes traditional, righton cue, and the nutty Japan Firsters are thriving again, just like thethirties."

  "Good Lord."

  "Doesn't it all fit somehow? Matsuo Noda started off by creating thisshadow outfit, Dai Nippon, in order to get his hands on all hiscountrymen's money. Now the next step will be to start phasing out the_demokurasu _frills and the powerless prime minister and the MITIbureaucrats and turning the place into a kick-ass machine again. Lookout world."

  "One small problem. The emperor can't rule Japan. Not really. He's aliving god. Which means . . ."

  "See? That difficulty's nothing new. For a thousand years the emperor'shad no real clout anyway. The nitty-gritty of running Japan was alwaysthe job of his stand-in."

  There was a long pause. We both avoided speaking the word, but there itwas. Finally she leaned back and closed her eyes, her voice barelyaudible above the din of the bar.

  "Shogun."