The Perfect Pathogen

by Mark Atkisson

  After they finished going through the photo album, Anna took the girls off to bed. They both gave Ben and their mom kisses goodnight. Ben was enjoying this immensely.

  After the kids left the room, Ben turned to Natalya, looking at her properly for the first time.

  “So why did you keep this from me. My own daughter, and you weren’t even going to tell me she was born!”

  “Well, initially I was so mad at you, all I could think of was how much I hated you. And then when Nadya was born, I was afraid to tell you because of her disability. I thought you would reject us. So, I took the safe route and just kept it to myself. We Russians can keep good secrets too, you know. I figured that someday in the future our paths would cross and I would be able tell you then. That day came sooner than I thought, and now with the news you gave me today, we may not have much time left to share as a family.”

  Ben was a little puzzled. He accepted her reasoning, but what was this about a disability. He had noticed something a little different, but he didn’t see any developmental issues.

  “What disability are you speaking of?” asked Ben. “She seems perfectly normal.”

  “Well, she has had some health issues and luckily they have all been easily fixed. She is mosaic, Ben. She has some of the characteristics of Down Syndrome, but not all. As you can tell she looks pretty normal. She has to work really hard to learn, but she is a survivor. She works until she masters each new task. You would be so proud to see her work,” said Natalya.

  “I think she is a lovely little girl and so full of life. I wish you had told me earlier. When did she find out I was her dad?” asked Ben.

  “When you called Monday and agreed to come to Russia for a visit. I told her that her daddy was flying all the way from the United States of America to see her. She was so thrilled.”

  There was a brief silence.

  “Where do we go from here?”

  “You tell me. Right now we have some pretty important work to do. When are you scheduled to go back to the U.S.?”

  “Within the week. But this is all happening really fast. I need to figure out how we can best make this work for all of us,” said Ben.

  “The easiest thing would be for you to just stay here. We can commute together and you could work out of my building if you like. We could set an office up for you. Once the epidemic is under control we could decide where to go from there. What do you think?” asked Natalya.

  “Where will I stay?” asked Ben.

  “I have a guest room you can use. I can have Anna prepare it for you.”

  Ben wanted to scream yes, but he wasn’t sure how his office back home would react. He probably could do most of his work from Russia. He would have to use the U.S. Embassy’s secure DVC for the daily calls, but that would be after hours so it shouldn’t be an issue. His mind was buzzing.

  “I have a call to make to the office this evening. I will broach the subject with them, and I think your plan just might work,” said Ben.

  Natalya now had a broad smile on her face. She was close to getting back the man she had never stopped loving, plus she thought this would be the best thing for the girls.

  “I have got to go. I will come to your office tomorrow morning around ten if that is ok?” said Ben.

  Ben got up and walked to the door. Natalya followed him. Just before reaching for the knob he turned around and Natalya was right there. He put his arms around her and embraced her, pulling her close to his body. She kissed him gently.

  “I have to go,” he said. He could so easily have stayed, but it was all so sudden, and there was so much to think about. He released Natalya and moved to the door. As she closed it behind him, she felt disappointed, though of course she understood. But she was determined to get her own way. Tomorrow would be another day.

  CHAPTER 37

  Ben arrived at the Embassy a little before 10:00 p.m. As promised, the duty officer was waiting at Marine Post One. Ben made his way to his old office and logged onto the computer. First thing, he wanted to catch up, for he hadn’t seen any news or email since earlier in the day.

  Shock spread quickly through his entire body when he saw the headline “U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Commits Suicide over Failure to Stop Epidemic” flashing up on his screen

  He couldn’t believe it. He had known Jennifer for years. She would never have done this. Her ego was too big. Something must have gone terribly wrong.

  Noticing the time, Ben picked up the handset on the Secure Telephone Unit, or STU, and placed a call to Katie.

  “Hi Katie, this is Ben.”

  “Hi Ben. Your call is right on time,” said Katie.

  “I just read the news regarding the Secretary. What happened?”

  “Nothing is really clear, but from what we have heard, she shot herself last night. It doesn’t make sense to any of us, but we don’t know what was going through her head. She didn’t even own a gun.”

  “I have known her for years and I find it really unbelievable,” said Ben.

  “We are just getting over the upset. I had to brief her replacement earlier today. His name is Dr. Lawrence Hill. Do you know him?” asked Katie.

  “Yes. I have worked on some projects with him. Smart guy, but very political. That’s probably why he is where he is now,” said Ben.

  “So, what have you found out?” asked Katie.

  “There is some interesting news. The mammoth was found close to Ust’Nera in the thawing permafrost. The team that conducted the research was from India and Japan. About three months after they located the mammoth, it and all samples were moved to New Delhi, India, for further research.”

  “Aha,” said Katie. “That matches up perfectly with our analysis. That could explain why the infection spread to India first instead of China or Mongolia which are closer to Ust’Nera.”

  “Assuming the mammoth is the source of our problem, of course,” Ben said. “That still has to be determined.”

  “It is looking more and more likely, you’ll have to admit now Ben,” said Katie.

  “Yes it is. The samples in the lab in New Delhi are being prepared for testing. They expect results in about two days,” said Ben.

  “Great! How did your briefing with your counterpart go?” asked Katie.

  “She bought into everything we are doing. I had to brief her boss also, but he agreed to keep this close hold for at least a week. You can pass that on at today’s call, if you don’t mind.”

  “I think I will leave that up to Sarah. Every time I open my mouth, Jim Redman seems to pounce on me. I am going to maintain a low profile going forward.”

  “I hear Redman holds a grudge for quite a long time, so it may be too late for you I’m afraid,” chuckled Ben.

  “I just want to stay off his radar. He gives me the creeps, frankly. I will let Sarah handle the dirty work. Getting back on topic, I have now analyzed the results of over 10,000 live blood samples and they are all positive.”

  “Well, at least the hypothesis regarding the greater population being infected is proving to be very accurate,” Ben said. “Have you made any progress in determining the rate at which the pathogen is speeding up the life cycle?”

  “I am still collecting data. I should be able to start looking at this in the next several days. I have already developed my strategy and I think I can come up with a pretty good estimate by region. It will be just an estimate though. Each specific area will vary based on life expectancy and age of that particular population, if I have this right,” said Katie.

  “When you get your hypothesis and formulas down on paper, send me an email and I will review it to see if there are any holes. Always helps to have a second set of eyes.”

  “Great idea,” said Katie. “Anything else?”

  “Please let Sarah know that I might have to extend my stay. Something has come up,” said Ben.

  “Sounds mysterious. Do you want me to see if she is available for a call right now?”

  “If you don�
��t mind, that would be great,” said Ben.

  “Just a second.”

  Katie dialed Sarah’s number. “Hi Sarah, Ben wants to talk to you. Should I have him call your STU in your office?”

  “Yes, but tell him I will only be here for another ten minutes.”

  “Will do,” said Katie.

  “Ben you are good-to-go. She will be in her office for the next ten minutes.”

  “Thank you Katie. I will email you with any news I receive tomorrow. You do the same for me. Take care.”

  Ben hung up and Katie wondered what it was that Ben needed to discuss with Sarah that he couldn’t share with her. Still, they had only known each other for a week or so, so no big deal.

  “Hi Ben,” answered Sarah. “What’s up?”

  “Hi Sarah. I just briefed Katie, and now I want to run a personal request by you. You know that Dr. Natalya Gorky and I used to be a couple and that we had a child together, remember?” said Ben.

  “Yes, I do recall that, and then you had a big blow-up a few years back and you moved back to headquarters in DC from the Embassy in Moscow.”

  “That’s the gist of it. Well, there is a new development. What we didn’t know when I left was that Natalya also was pregnant at the time. I now have a second daughter who is four years old. Natalya has asked me to stay for a while so that I can bond with my new daughter and heal some old wounds with my twelve-year-old daughter. She will give me an office in the Ministry of Health building and I can use the Embassy for my calls and secure work. What do you think?” asked Ben.

  “I want to say yes, but we are in the middle of this epidemic Ben. Do you really think you will be able to pursue all of your work from that location?” asked Sarah.

  “I guess what I am saying is let me try it and if it doesn’t work, then we will have to make alternate plans. Okay by you?” he asked.

  “Well, if you can work it out with the Embassy we can give it a try. How long are you thinking?” Sara said.

  “Let’s start with thirty days and go from there,” suggested Ben.

  “Ok, you’ve got it, but you are going to have to make this work, no matter what, or we are going to ask that you get back here immediately. You are one of our best Ben. We need you on this,” she emphasized.

  “Roger that. Thank you Sarah. This means a lot to me. Good-bye.”

  Katie had about 35 minutes before the big DVC so she decided to stop by the cafeteria for a snack and something to drink. She decided again on a Snickers bar and Diet Coke - two of her favorites. As she was checking out, she got the distinct impression that someone was watching her. She looked around the room and it was virtually empty, lunch having finished over an hour earlier. Chiding herself inside, she hoped she wasn’t starting to get paranoid.

  She went back by her office and then up to Sarah’s conference room. Sarah was just returning from her earlier meeting, and was standing in her office.

  “You are just in time Katie. I need you to give me a quick brief on Ben’s call.”

  “What, didn’t he call you?” asked Katie puzzled.

  “Yes, but we didn’t have time to discuss his findings. I had to go to a meeting,” said Sarah.

  “Well, in a nutshell, he is having the mammoth samples tested for SDX. Once the results are ready, they will be sent to me. I have the normal blood test results for an elephant in hand now, the closest relative to the mammoth, and these are already plugged into my algorithm. I should get the results in about forty-eight hours, maybe a little sooner,” said Katie.

  “That’s great news,” said Sarah.

  “But, what I find more interesting is that he verified the baby mammoth came from an excavation site near Ust’Nera and was subsequently moved to New Delhi, India.”

  “…And?” asked Sarah

  “And our data shows the infection started near Ust’Nera and then spread first to India, then China and Africa. Either this is a great coincidence or the baby mammoth has something to do with the spread of SDX,” said Katie.

  “And where is the baby mammoth now?” asked Sarah.

  “Right here. The Museum of Natural History on the Mall.”

  Sarah sat down, taking this new information on board.

  “Ok, how do we package this for the DVC in ten minutes?”

  “I recommend we deal with just the facts. We are testing the serum samples. The baby mammoth is in DC. Ben is pursuing all documentation regarding the tests on the baby mammoth. We should have definitive proof in about two days,” said Katie.

  “All blood bank samples from across the U.S. have been positive, is that correct?”

  “Yes that is correct,” said Katie.

  “How many?”

  “Over 8,000,” replied Katie.

  “Ok, let’s see how the call goes with the acting Secretary.”

  At 3 p.m., right on time, the pictures of all of the conference rooms appeared on the large screen TV. The regular cast of characters were present, but minus the Secretary now.

  Jim Redman, NSA, started the call.

  “Welcome everyone to today’s update. Before we start, I would like to say how sorry we are about Jennifer. We all knew and loved her. Please, let us mark Jennifer’s death with a moment of silence.

  Katie wanted to puke, thinking about the absurdity of Jim acting like he was in love with Jennifer. He really was a two-faced jerk, she thought.

  After a brief pause, Jim continued.

  “Ok, ladies and gentlemen. I would like to introduce Dr. Lawrence Hill, the acting Secretary for the foreseeable future. I believe most of you know Larry or have met him recently. Larry, I will turn the meeting over to you.”

  “Thank you Jim, and thank you to all who spent time with me earlier today, bringing me up to speed with our progress combatting this epidemic. I do not like to spend a lot of time in meetings, so I will run this one more as a discussion rather than a roll call. That said, I will have a lot of questions, so bear with me. So, let’s start. Who has something new to offer?” Larry asked.

  The sound of silence was deafening. When Katie finally spoke it was in response to some unsubtle non-verbal prodding from Sarah.

  “Dr. Ben Shah convinced the Russians to give us permission to sample the baby mammoth’s blood that was taken about five years ago. I expect the results in about forty-eight hours. I will analyze the results for signs of SDX. If the mammoth can be linked to SDX, then we believe it is probably the source of the pathogen, based on its movement in the early days after its discovery. It was moved from Siberia to India, which is consistent with the analysis of the aging data. That data shows the infection followed the same route. The remains of the baby mammoth in question are currently on display at the Museum of Natural History in DC.”

  Sarah was a little surprised at how far Katie had gone, but was pleased by the immediate reaction of the Acting Secretary and the CDC Director in Atlanta. “Now, that’s very interesting,” they both said nearly in unison.

  “If the mammoth is indeed linked to SDX, then I think we will need to take possession of the remains for testing,” said the CDC Director, Bob Gleeson.

  “Know also that Ben is pursing all of the documentation that describes tests run on the mammoth corpse over the past five years. That should be able to reveal some information also,” said Sarah.

  “We also still have positives on all blood testing thus far, over 8,000 samples,” added Katie.

  “Good work,” said the Acting Secretary. “But we still need to find out what causes the disease. We know that almost everyone has it. We may know where it came from and we have a possible carrier of the disease. Now, I need someone to tell us what it is.”

  CHAPTER 38

  Katie went back to her office. She was now in a holding pattern waiting on the collation of the mortality data for her life expectancy calculations, and the mammoth blood sample results which would confirm the link to SDX. She would continue to receive test results on the blood bank samples The test results of the submarine crew
had come in, but there were no surprises. They were all positive. She was losing hope of finding a negative specimen anytime soon. She decided that the best thing she could do today was make sure she left at a reasonable hour so she could spend some time with her family tonight. She was home just before sunset, for a change.

  The following day was uneventful. Still no negatives on the mass sampling and no mammoth test results. Beth had managed to put together the reported U.S. death cases: over 300,000 were now being reported daily. Somewhere between 2% and 3% of the entire U.S. population had died since the start of the epidemic ten days earlier. Mortuary services were now overwhelmed and the use of mass graves, albeit marked, had begun.

  Katie started to analyze the data she had so far, but it soon became clear that she needed a better way to categorize individual deaths. Katie worked with Beth to limit the data to three major fields - Age, gender, and date of death. With these three fields she would develop a formula to estimate the date of death based on age. It would be difficult, but she expected she could get in the ball park with her initial estimate. She figured she could calculate the slope of the line delineated by death date and age, and then she would compare male-to-male and female-to-female. Once she had the slope, she would extrapolate the line until she had the expected death date of everyone aged from 1 to 100. With this data, she would then be able to calculate how many people would die on any given day. It seemed unbelievable that she could do this, but in Katie’s mind this was a basic algebra class question. All she was missing was the data, and she hoped to have that soon.

  Ben arrived at the Russian Ministry of Health headquarters about ten in the morning. He was feeling well rested and excited about his extended stay in Moscow. He found Natalya busy at work in her office. He knocked gently and she looked up. Her eyes sparkled and he knew she was happy to see him.

  “I am here and I am ready to get to work,” said Ben. “My boss agreed to let me stay in Moscow for the next thirty days, if your offer is still open.”