Crime in Progress
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the Helsinki moment was when he stopped: Testimony of Michael D. Cohen, House Committee on Oversight and Reform, February 27, 2019.
the Justice Department indicted Maria Butina: United States v. Butina, No. 18-218, U.S. District Court, District of Columbia, July 14, 2018.
“another wild tale”: Kimberley A. Strassel, “Russia, the NRA and Fake News,” Wall Street Journal, March 22, 2018.
the FBI released more than four hundred pages: Verified Application, Carter W. Page, U.S. Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, Washington, D.C., October 2016. Declassified version available at https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/21/us/politics/carter-page-fisa.html.
Cohen would plead guilty: Plea, United States v. Cohen, No. 1:18-cr-00850, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, November 29, 2018.
Manafort was convicted: A federal grand jury found Manafort guilty of eight counts of tax fraud, bank fraud, and failure to file reports of foreign bank accounts, August 21, 2018. See https://www.justice.gov/sco.
Nunes made a secret trip: Mark Hosenball, “Congressman Nunes Sought Meeting with UK Spy Chiefs in London,” Reuters, August 28, 2018.
Republican investigators would grill Ohr: Testimony of Bruce Ohr, House Committee on Oversight and Reform, August 28, 2018.
“Wow, Nellie Ohr”: Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump), Twitter, August 30, 2018, 8:54 A.M.
sentenced former Trump adviser: United States v. Papadopoulos, No. 1:17-cr-182, U.S. District Court, District of Columbia, September 7, 2018.
Papadopoulos’s lies had deprived prosecutors: Mark Mazzetti and Sharon LaFraniere, “George Papadopoulos, Ex–Trump Adviser, Is Sentenced to 14 Days in Jail,” New York Times, September 7, 2018.
a London-based Maltese professor: Eileen Sullivan, “Joseph Mifsud, Key to Russia Inquiry, Gets Moment in the Spotlight,” New York Times, July 24, 2019.
“a Russian agent”: James Comey, “No ‘Treason.’ No Coup. Just Lies—and Dumb Lies at That,” Washington Post, May 28, 2019.
“hindered investigators’ ability”: Sentencing Memorandum, United States v. Papadopoulos, No. 1:17-cr-182, U.S. District Court, District of Columbia, August 31, 2018.
“This narrative was developed”: Graham Stack, “Graham Stack: Everything You Know About Paul Manafort Is Wrong,” Kyiv Post, September 17, 2018.
“There should be no doubt”: Matthew Rosenberg, Charlie Savage, and Michael Wines, “Russia Sees Midterm Elections as Chance to Sow Fresh Discord, Intelligence Chiefs Warn,” New York Times, February 13, 2018.
executives at Microsoft disclosed: Hannah Knowles, “Chairman of House Intelligence Panel Says He First Learned of Russian Attacks on Senate Campaigns at a Security Forum,” Washington Post, July 22, 2019.
identified more than ten thousand posts: Jonathon Morgan and Ryan Fox, “Russians Meddling in the Midterms? Here’s the Data,” New York Times, November 6, 2018.
much of the Russian disinformation: New Knowledge (@NewKnowledgeAI), “There is a significant imbalance of user activity,” Twitter, October 26, 2018, 1:21 P.M.
“Great Midterm issue for Republicans”: Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump), “Hard to believe that with thousands of people from South of the Border,” Twitter, October 17, 2018, 6:45 A.M.
Trump made the caravan the centerpiece: Christopher Cadelago and Ted Hesson, “Why Trump Is Talking Nonstop About the Migrant Caravan,” Politico, October 23, 2018.
Polls showed the Republicans: https://polling.reuters.com.
Republicans had a shot: Political scientists estimate that gerrymandering of House districts provides Republicans with a roughly 5-percentage-point advantage.
the New York offices of CNN were evacuated: Michael Gold, “CNN Found a Bomb at Its New York Office. Confusion and ‘False Alarms’ Followed,” New York Times, October 24, 2018.
Over the next forty-eight hours: Shortly after the election, Simpson went to London to catch up with Steele and Burrows. As they sat together, Simpson saw an unfamiliar number from the 202 area code on his mobile phone and decided to pick up. It was the FBI. “Just a courtesy call,” the agent said. Nothing to be alarmed about. By law, we’re required to let you know: “We found your name in Cesar Sayoc’s computer.”
“now this ‘Bomb’ stuff happens”: Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump), “Republicans are doing so well in early voting,” Twitter, October 26, 2018, 7:19 A.M.
“we did have two maniacs”: President Donald Trump, political rally, Columbia, Missouri, November 1, 2018. Referenced in Allyson Chiu, “Trump Mourns Loss of ‘Tremendous Momentum’ for GOP Because of Pipe Bombs, Synagogue Shootings,” Washington Post, November 2, 2018.
wound up beating the Republicans: Allan Smith, “Democrats Won House Popular Vote by Largest Midterm Margin Since Watergate,” NBC News, November 21, 2018.
firing his embattled attorney general: Peter Baker, Katie Benner, and Michael D. Shear, “Jeff Sessions Is Forced Out as Attorney General as Trump Installs Loyalist,” New York Times, November 7, 2018.
“witch hunt”: Matthew Whitaker, “Mueller’s Investigation of Trump Is Going Too Far,” CNN, November 7, 2018.
“What the Steele dossier showed”: John Sipher (@john_sipher), Twitter, November 29, 2018, 8:15 A.M.
“Correct,” replied his former CIA Russia colleague: Steven L. Hall (@StevenLHall11), Twitter, November 29, 2018, 12:08 P.M.
“Mueller should not be permitted”: Bill Barr to Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Assistant Attorney General Steve Engel, memorandum, June 8, 2018.
Trump had called his former consigliere: “Watch: Trump Calls Michael Cohen a Rat,” video, Good Morning America, ABC, December 16, 2018.
Cohen had nothing to lose: Testimony of Michael D. Cohen, House Committee on Oversight and Reform, February 27, 2019.
Mueller submitted his report to Barr: Sharon LaFraniere and Katie Benner, “Mueller Delivers Report on Trump-Russia Investigation to Attorney General,” New York Times, March 22, 2019.
Barr sent to Congress: William P. Barr to Lindsey Graham, Jerrold Nadler, Dianne Feinstein, and Doug Collins, March 24, 2019; available at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/03/24/us/politics/barr-letter-mueller-report.html.
Barr’s letter listed the size: Ibid.
“ultimately decided not to”: Ibid.
“Good Morning, Have A Great Day”: Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump), Twitter, March 24, 2019, 5:01 A.M.
“MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”: Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump), Twitter, March 24, 2019, 5:02 A.M.
“No Collusion, No Obstruction”: Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump), Twitter, March 24, 2019, 4:42 P.M.
admitted as much to Lester Holt: Donald Trump, interview by Lester Holt, NBC Nightly News, NBC, May 12, 2017.
Mueller himself wrote to Barr: Robert S. Mueller to William P. Barr, March 27, 2019.
Mueller finally went before Congress: Testimony of Former Special Counsel Robert Mueller, House Judiciary and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, July 24, 2019.
“Welcome, everyone, to the last gasp”: Nunes opening statement, Hearing, Former Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III on the Investigation into Russian Interference in the 2016 Presidential Election, House Intelligence Committee, July 24, 2019.
“There is collusion in plain sight”: Ibid.
“Fusion GPS, Steele, and other”: Ibid.
“not a witch hunt”: Robert Mueller, Hearing, Former Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller, July 24, 2019.
EPILOGUE
hundreds of former prosecutors agree: “Hundreds of Ex–Federal Prosecutors Sign Letter Saying Trump Deserved Obstruction Charge,” Associated Press, May 6, 2019.
nearly one in four federal appeals: Carrie Johnson, “Trump’s Impact on Federal Courts: Ju
dicial Nominees by the Numbers,” NPR, August 5, 2019.
the FBI exposed and arrested: Sealed Complaint, United States. v. Chapman, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, 2010.
the ring was more preoccupied: In one 2002 conversation, one of the spies boasted to headquarters that she was cultivating “an active fundraiser” for the Democrats who was “a personal friend” of Hillary Clinton. Yet another sought to cozy up to a Washington think tank with close ties to the Clintons, the New America Foundation.
questions about the Trump campaign’s cooperation: Eric Lichtblau and Steven Lee Myers, “Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia,” New York Times, October 31, 2016. To the extent they did finally surface in the final days of the campaign, they were effectively snuffed out as a political issue by The New York Times a week before the vote.
The dossier’s true impact: Ironically, the appearance of the first Steele memo at Fusion’s offices in June 2016 may well have helped Trump. The alarming confirmation of Fusion’s early suspicions led it to focus on the Trump-Russia relationship and not on other research threads that likely would have been more politically damaging, such as Trump’s use of immigrant labor and his offshoring of jobs.
Historic intelligence failures: Errol Morris, “The Certainty of Donald Rumsfeld (Part 3),” New York Times, March 27, 2014.
“failures of imagination”: Alec Russell, “9/11 Report Condemns ‘Failure of Imagination,’ ” The Telegraph, July 23, 2004; Dana Priest, “Russia’s Election Meddling Is Another American Intelligence Failure,” New Yorker, November 13, 2017.
A spy whose sources: Jane Mayer, “Christopher Steele, the Man Behind the Trump Dossier,” New Yorker, March 5, 2018. “In the intelligence business, you don’t pretend you’re a hundred per cent accurate. If you’re seventy or eighty per cent accurate, that makes you one of the best.”
“Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered”: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections, Intelligence Community Assessment, ICA 2017-01D, January 6, 2017.
“Russia’s goals”: Ibid.
“undermine the U.S.-led liberal democratic order”: Ibid.
the FBI was either: Eric Lichtblau and Steven Lee Myers, “Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia,” New York Times, October 31, 2016. As late as eight days before the election, top FBI officials told The New York Times that investigators “have become increasingly confident, based on the evidence they have uncovered, that Russia’s direct goal is not to support the election of Mr. Trump, as many Democrats have asserted.”
U.S. officials confirmed that the Central Intelligence Agency: Julian E. Barnes, Adam Goldman, and David E. Sanger, “C.I.A. Informant Extracted from Russia Had Sent Secrets to U.S. for Decades,” New York Times, September 9, 2019.
secure permits for a Trump Tower in Moscow: Hunter Walker and Brett Arnold, “Michael Cohen’s Efforts to Build a Trump Tower in Moscow Went On Longer Than He Has Previously Acknowledged,” Yahoo News, May 16, 2018. The deal reportedly also included a penthouse for Putin on the top floor. In Steele’s account, there was no specific reference to Trump Tower Moscow, but there was a vague reference to the deal being “in relation to the ongoing 2018 World Cup.” That likely refers to possible joint ventures that were explored between Trump and the Agalarovs, who at the time were planning construction projects related to the World Cup. But the notion of real estate projects being dangled by Russia as leverage over Trump was accurate.
“Russians apparently have promised”: Orbis, Company Intelligence Report 2016/097, July 30, 2016.
discovered in July 2017: Jo Becker, Matt Apuzzo, and Adam Goldman, “Trump Team Met with Lawyer Linked to Kremlin During Campaign,” New York Times, July 8, 2017.
The dossier also correctly identified: Flynn and Manafort were subsequently charged and convicted by the special counsel, in part for their dealings with Russians, while Page was the subject of multiple classified electronic eavesdropping warrants, an extraordinary measure that required extensive corroboration of Steele’s claims to be submitted in court. Cohen, of course, also eventually admitted many of his lies about his dealings with Russia and ended up in prison.
showed that Manafort was in contact: United States v. Manafort, No. 1:17-cr-00201-ABJ, U.S. District Court, District of Columbia, June 8, 2018.
Flynn was paid $68,000: Rosalind S. Helderman and Tom Hamburger, “Trump Adviser Flynn Paid by Multiple Russia-Related Entities, New Records Show,” Washington Post, March 16, 2017.
admitted to lying: Chris Sommerfeldt, “Trump’s Ex–National Security Adviser Michael Flynn Had Undisclosed Meet with Russian Ambassador in 2015,” New York Daily News, April 27, 2018.
“bragged…that they had cultivated”: Ryan Nobles, New Day Saturday, CNN, May 20, 2017.
Page had privately met with: Orbis to Fusion, Company Intelligence Report 2016/094, July 19, 2016.
That sale was little known at the time Steele described it: Katya Golubkova, Dmitry Zhdannikov, and Stephen Jewkes, “How Russia Sold Its Oil Jewel: Without Saying Who Bought It,” Reuters, January 24, 2017.
Page adamantly denied the claims: Testimony of Carter Page, House Intelligence Committee, November 2, 2017.
“incredible insights and outreach”: Ibid.
His categorical denial was ultimately reduced: Steele’s timely reports on Page were part of the body of intelligence that led the FBI to initiate its own investigation into Russian meddling in the election, which included obtaining secret surveillance warrants against Page. The Justice Department later “provided additional information obtained through multiple independent sources that corroborated Steele’s reporting,” according to a January 2018 minority report from the House Intelligence Committee. “Steele’s information about Page was consistent with the FBI’s assessment of prior (but not public) Russian intelligence efforts to recruit Page in 2013 and his connections to Russian persons of interest.” The Mueller report revealed that Carter Page had prior contact with Russian intelligence not once but twice—in 2008 as well as 2013.
Steele’s sources stated that Cohen had played an “important role”: Orbis to Fusion, Company Intelligence Report 2016/35, October 19, 2016.
Cohen had attended a meeting: Ibid. Prior to the publication of the Steele memoranda in January 2017, Michael Cohen was a relatively obscure figure in Trump’s orbit and had few known connections to the Trump-Russia controversy. That changed in 2017 and 2018 as a steady trickle of revelations indicated that Cohen indeed had more dealings with Russia than he’d admitted. In April 2018, soon after his office was raided by the FBI, Cohen dropped a libel suit he had filed against Fusion GPS over the Prague claim. Then, in late November 2018, Cohen abruptly appeared in court to admit that he had indeed acted as a liaison to the Kremlin in 2016—regarding not the election hack but the Trump Tower Moscow project. He also said he had lied about it in testimony to Congress in a cover-up that was allegedly coordinated with the White House. Mueller’s prosecutors told the court that Cohen had provided important but unspecified other information “on core topics” of their Russia investigation.
“giving informal advice to Putin”: Orbis to Fusion, Company Intelligence Report 2016/111, September 14, 2016.
Aven said he took Putin’s suggestions: From Mueller report, vol. I, 146: “Aven told the Office that he is one of approximately 50 wealthy Russian businessmen who regularly meet with Putin in the Kremlin; these 50 men are often referred to as ‘oligarchs.’ Aven told the Office that he met on a quarterly basis with Putin, including in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2016, shortly after the U.S. presidential election. Aven said that he took these meetings seriously and understood that any suggestions or critiques that Putin made during these meetings were implicit directives, and that there would be consequences for Aven if he did n
ot follow through. As was typical, the 2016 Q4 meeting with Putin was preceded by a preparatory meeting with Putin’s chief of staff, Anton Vaino.”
“botnets and porn traffic”: Orbis to Fusion, Company Intelligence Report 2016/166, December 13, 2016.
Webzilla’s owner vehemently denied: Gubarev v. BuzzFeed, No. 1:17-cv-60426, U.S. District Court, Southern District of Florida, December 19, 2018.
Webzilla was used by the Russian troll farm: Kevin G. Hall, “Russian Trolls Pumped Out Malware Along with Pro-Trump messages. Venezuelans Helped,” McClatchyDC, April 2, 2019.
Trump told FBI Director James Comey: “Donald Trump Press Conference,” YouTube video, 1:02:33, posted by “CNBC,” January 12, 2017. Trump has also sought to discredit the story by claiming he is a “germaphobe,” yet the porn star Stormy Daniels claims he had unprotected sex with her.
Schiller recalled the offer: Adam Goldman and Nicholas Fandos, “Keith Schiller, Trump’s Ex-Bodyguard, Says He Turned Down Offer of Women in Moscow,” New York Times, November 10, 2017. After he left the White House in the midst of the Mueller investigation, Schiller landed a job at the Republican National Committee that paid $15,000 a month.
“Stopped flow of tapes from Russia”: Mueller report, vol. I, 27n.
Mueller’s report offers mountains: For example, the Kremlin’s use of WikiLeaks as a proxy to distribute the hacked emails is well documented, as is the Trump campaign’s belief that Russia possessed damaging information about Hillary Clinton and their prior knowledge that WikiLeaks would release hacked material harmful to Clinton. Manafort’s alleged use of Carter Page as an intermediary wasn’t specifically addressed by Mueller; Page depicted himself as an informal intermediary between the campaign and the Kremlin in emails cited by Mueller. The existence of Trump campaign or Russian moles within the DNC has never been addressed publicly by law enforcement or Congress, and may be a reference to suspicious efforts by the children of Russian oligarchs to attend Democratic fundraising events. Likewise, the alleged use of pension payments to fund Russian covert operations has never been addressed in public by Congress, Mueller, or the FBI, and the indictment of the Russian hackers describes their use of cryptocurrencies to conduct transactions in the United States.