RED Hotel

by Fuller, Ed; Grossman, Gary;

  “All the different experiences led to a debate, with each blind man insisting only he was right. But a wise man passed by and asked why they were arguing. They explained they couldn’t agree what an elephant was. They had no consensus and clearly couldn’t reach one. They recounted their individual impressions.

  “The wise man calmly observed that each blind man touched a different part of the elephant. They were all correct in their own way, just as you were. It’s all about perspective and what we are allowed to experience, either through circumstance or manipulation. You weren’t in control. Gorshkov was. He projected, through a false smile, a stronger than comfortable handshake, a greeting void of any emotion, the cruelty he wanted you to feel.”

  “Part of the elephant or the whole elephant?” Dan Reilly asked.

  “For you, it was the entire elephant,” Dr. Ellis stated. “The Russian people have an entirely different impression.”

  “Am I so wrong?”

  “At Langley we share your impression. You felt you were in the presence of a dangerous personality. He may very well be the most dangerous predator you or anyone has ever met in the modern era.

  “I have to confess, I really have an interesting practice. The patients I’ve analyzed over the years? Kim Jong-un, bin Laden, Bashar el-Assad, Gaddafi, Hussein. Never met any of them. Haven’t needed to. Same with Netanyahu and even our presidents from Clinton forward. I’ve evaluated them all—through impressions like yours and actions by them. Reading news reports, viewing interviews, studying photographs, debriefing field agents and political figures, researching their childhoods, understanding their purchases and their predilections.

  “I develop analyses and what I like to call personality predictives—hints into who they are and how they may act in ‘what if’ scenarios. It helps us wage a better diplomatic chess game.”

  Ellis locked onto Reilly’s eyes to underscore his point. “Chess, being the alternative to war.”

  “I imagine you have a real success rate,” Reilly offered.

  “Imagine all you want. It’s classified.” It was a joke, but it had the weight of truth. “For the sake of this discussion,” he continued, “let’s get into the weeds with Nikolai Gorshkov.”

  “I’m ready.”

  “First a little background that suggests a developmental pattern. He was born in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg, Russia, in 1957, the year Sputnik launched the space race. Gorshkov was a baby boomer whose parents survived the siege of Leningrad, the Nazis’ push into Russia, which left nearly one million people dead. His father was a factory worker, a laborer, and a janitor. He grew up with little materially in Soviet Russia, but was ingrained with the spirit of Mother Russia, a life force that continues to flow through him today.

  “He’s a smart man with a PhD in economics and a law degree from Moscow State University. But it’s the KGB that truly shaped the man we see today. Gorshkov was in his twenties when he was recruited by the Soviet spy agency. It was KGB Director Yuri Andropov’s idea to bring in younger operatives who hadn’t risen through the typical military track. However, Gorshkov either felt like an outsider or was judged as one. As a result, he didn’t earn top postings. He was assigned to Potsdam and charged with doing what the KGB did—surveil, collect data, and potentially detain and interrogate. But this was as perestroika was taking hold, the period that brought reforms and ultimately seismic changes to Russia and its relationship with the West. In my estimation, this new world order was counter to his nature as a thug.”

  Ellis’ manner and delivery changed. He straightened up in his chair, his voice deepened, and his eyes narrowed.

  “The Nikolai Gorshkov of today is still a thug who envisions himself as the leader of the country for the rest of his life … a contemptible dictator who has maneuvered upward with virtually unchecked power. Mr. Reilly, you were right to feel threatened. The leaders of countries around Russia should take heed as well.”

  Reilly exhaled. Chadwick Ellis had turned on a dime and what began as an analysis now became a warning.

  “Do I have your attention?” he asked

  “A hundred percent.”

  “Then more history. From an historical perspective, Gorshkov was angered and humiliated by the collapse of the Soviet Union. He felt little allegiance to Russian leadership that had all but abandoned him in Potsdam following the fall of the Berlin Wall.

  “Biographers reported that the Kremlin ignored his requests for assistance. He and his aides were left to destroy files on Germans the KGB had deemed enemies of the state. He viewed this as surrender, capitulation, and defeat. Not quite the Russian tradition. In that abandonment, the young KGB operative was reborn with a certain historical destiny—the destiny to one day rebuild respect for Russia, and yes, rebuild the Russian empire. That set the course which Russia and the rest of the world is on now.”

  Ellis smiled. “Am I giving you too much or going too fast?”

  “No, not at all,” Reilly replied.

  “Clearly you’re getting my interpretation. But for what it’s worth, the man is not hard to read. You walked away with a strong first blush reaction.”

  “Yes, a visceral feeling, but without an understanding.”

  “Quite so. Going a little deeper, from a clinical point a view, I’m of the opinion that Gorshkov projects multiple identities. Don’t take that as schizophrenia. He’s anything but. While he’s not a communist today, he’s a statist—one who believes in the concentration of a highly centralized government that extends into government ownership of industry. He sees himself with a sense of manifest destiny, returning order to the country and legitimacy to the Russian Orthodox Church through autocratic power. His autocracy.”

  “How did he consolidate so much power?” Reilly asked.

  “Over a long period of time and with a great deal of money,” Ellis replied. “After the dissolution of the Communist union and the end of Soviet Russia, he entered politics and, with proper influence, was given the post of deputy mayor of Novosibirsk. There, he realized that to succeed in politics—to win—it was completely acceptable to exploit the weaknesses of others. In the emerging capitalistic state it was also a practice that Gorshkov embraced for his own gain. He manipulated many financial scams. Businessmen became his focus, his targets. They were permitted to conduct high-level transactions in his city so long as he benefited as well. To guarantee that business worked in his favor, his KGB training came into play. Remember, he was a case officer. The tools of the trade included identifying suspects, cultivating sources, and running operatives. But in Novosibirsk it wasn’t tracking down Cold War spies or traitors. He now collected critical personal financial records on Russia’s regional and national oligarchs, which ultimately made them dependent on him. That dependency brought Gorshkov untold wealth.”

  Reilly shifted in his chair. He had to ask the obvious question.

  “How much?”

  “Untold. Unknown.”

  “Any estimate?”

  “Lot of digits. Lots of commas,” Ellis stated. “Wealth that he has continued to build.”

  “Multimillions?”

  “Multibillions. But back to the timeline. It’s important to follow. In 1998, he was invited to Moscow to investigate corrupt business practices. Imagine that. A man who went from poverty to great fortune based on his own corrupt practices was suddenly brought to Moscow to root out fraud. Again, he relied on proven lessons from his old KGB playbook. As the saying goes, he won new friends and influenced new people. And those he viewed as either political or financial enemies he jailed. All of this led him a step closer to the Kremlin. A step closer to fulfilling his destiny.”

  “History is his constant,” Reilly observed.

  “Correct. Gorshkov wears a coat woven with threads of Russian history. He cites leaders from tsarist Russia to Lenin as inspirations and invokes nationalism and patriotism as means to justify his very malevolent ends. He’s a megalomaniac and a perfectionist, with perfection equating to a
Russia of his design. And yes, he still operates like a spy and is wary of everyone’s motives. That makes him unpredictable and dangerous.”

  “And power hungry.”

  “Absolutely, with absolute power,” Ellis continued. “He’s stepped over everyone in his way. And as a survivalist, a statist, and a nationalist, he fits the Russian profile of a leader. He lives a private life, but with a theatrical public façade. Big, bold, brash. Certainly, the shrewdest in the room. A classic Machiavelli.”

  “Manipulative,” Reilly added.

  “Among the best,” Ellis emphasized.

  “Sane or crazy?” Reilly asked.

  “Completely sane and crazy like a fox. Nikolai Gorshkov’s over-arching goal has been to rebuild Russia’s belief in itself, then restore Russia as the ultimate power broker in the world. To achieve this he will test the weakness of adversaries, whether they’re in the Kremlin, across Russia’s immediate borders, or beyond Europe. And he counts on America’s lack of resolve.

  “One of my jobs is to look for hints of what he might do next. It’s harder with Gorshkov than anyone in memory. He’s a trained spy who holds all of his cards tightly. He telegraphs little or nothing. The aides he confides in are equally guarded ex-KGB. They communicate in small groups and watch one another for missteps. As far back as fifteen years ago CIA analysts concluded that Gorshkov created a tough environment for intelligence. It’s gotten tougher since.”

  “So, what’s he likely capable of doing next?” Reilly asked.

  “Likely. Gorshkov likes to echo his predecessor who said, ‘Only a sick person in his sleep can imagine that Russia would suddenly attack NATO.’ He also said, ‘There’s no need to be afraid of Russia.’ Two statements meant to misdirect concern. And yet his planes buzz American ships in the Baltic Sea and test defenses in the Western Hemisphere. NATO nations on Russia’s borders nervously look east.”

  “And Ukrainians wake up every morning wondering if this’ll be the day Russia launches a full-scale attack.”

  “Correct. In the short term, the goal is to create chaos; a favorite tactic of dictators. Designed to keep adversaries off balance. They benefit from chaos. They create external threats to hide internal problems, warn citizens that the enemy is at the gate, and stir up patriotic fervor to discourage and derail any regime change. Chaos kicks up so much dirt it clouds our ability to act effectively,” the CIA psychiatrist continued. “Yet our inaction feeds the monster’s id and diminishes our standing in the world.”

  “And the monster is Gorshkov,” Reilly asserted. “But Gorshkov more than Russia?”

  “Gorshkov’s at the top. He isn’t just the face of the new Russia, he is its brain, body, and soul. Beside him, or rather under him, are his former KGB associates. They serve at his pleasure and discretion so long as they obey. Loyalty comes with its benefits: wealth, homes, women. Disloyalty? I think you can fill in the blanks.”

  “All too well,” Reilly whispered.

  “Nikolai Gorshkov is father and leader. His purpose is to rebuild the old Soviet Empire. He doesn’t view it as an impossible task. But his tendency is to sell it in as a means to protect Russia, its sovereignty, its territories, its values, and its people.”

  “Using propaganda to establish firm foundation for political gain,” Reilly noted.

  “Not just political gain,” Dr. Ellis maintained. “Land. And this quickly gets to the larger issue of Western influence. Gorshkov isn’t frightened or threatened by any single European country. But in his mind, NATO and the EU are driven to expand and under the control of American presidents. In even harsher terms, he sees those countries as occupied by the United States, with Russia our next commercial trophy.”

  “That’s ridiculous,” Reilly proclaimed.

  “Not for a narcissistic Machiavellian with millions of followers. And because of who he is, what he believes, and the power he’s amassed, Gorshkov operates in a world of duplicity and deceit reminiscent of the old Soviet Guard before Khrushchev.”

  “Two questions,” Reilly said. “How responsible is the West for his ascension? And even more important, if Gorshkov believes in his own manifest destiny, then beyond all the cloak-and-dagger stuff, what does he want?”

  Dr. Chadwick Ellis took a deep breath. “Questions with alarming answers, Mr. Reilly. We are not blameless. Our geopolitical missteps, and those of our allies, contributed to the creation of Gorshkov, or at least helped his ascension. After the end of the Cold War, we dismissed Russia as a third-rate player. The country was struggling to rebuild a national identity and ascertain international respect. The Kremlin saw NATO expanding, pushing its boundaries up and down Russia’s western frontier. Even though we invited Russia to have an unofficial say in NATO, we didn’t allow it to become a member. Whether that would have been a good idea is another thing. But it did serve to isolate and neuter a former super power. In my estimation, this gave Russia’s leaders permission to stand up to the West, to restore the pride and patriotism to a nation that had been stripped of both.

  “To your second question, Nikolai Gorshkov believes that today he alone has the wherewithal to reclaim Russia’s rightful place in the world. He alone has the draconian authority to create a new Russian empire. It is his destiny to become the most powerful person in the world.”

  “The ultimate egoist,” Reilly concluded.

  “Probably none greater. He is cunning, diabolical, and deadly.”

  Again Reilly thought about Gorshkov’s end game, wondering how it would play out.

  55

  BRUSSELS, BELGIUM

  Without realizing his complicity, the Kensington Diplomat’s general manager had aided a Russian assassin in compiling an extraordinarily detailed target folder. It was replete with sixty photographs, the location of load-bearing structural supports, and virtually complete intel on the CCTV system and what hotel security could see. The research included traffic patterns and times of neighborhood gridlock, typical police response times, alternative exit routes, and weak spots within the hotel power plant.

  Liam Schorel hadn’t expected any gifts, but the architect thanked him with a surprise, a expensive bottle of Chateau Mouton Rothschild Pauillac.

  “You’ve made my stay wonderful,” the man named Bakó said as he gave him the fine Bordeaux.

  “Thank you. This is wonderful and it has been my pleasure. I hope you’ll return.”

  “Oh, I promise I will,” the spy said with an expression that Schorel couldn’t interpret.

  “Let me walk you out,” Schorel offered.

  At checkout, Schorel reviewed his guest’s bill and reduced it to the family and friends rate. Miklos almost thought it would be a shame if Schorel was in the hotel the appointed moment. Almost.

  Before departing, he kissed Madame Ketz again, which earned him another boutonniere. As she pinned it on him, he noticed Frederik busy at work putting flowers and plants in the large cooler. What a good helper, he thought.

  MOSCOW

  FSB Director Nicholai Federov solved the Alexandr Vasilev problem the old-fashioned way. Vasilev, a widower of eight years, went to join his wife. Pravda reported that he had died quietly in his sleep. The Federal Security deputy director was cremated and quickly honored with a military burial. All within one day. Inefficiency eliminated. An irresponsible intelligence officer removed from service before he became a bigger problem.

  LANGLEY

  Bob Heath read the CIA summary with skepticism. Vasilev was one of Russia’s veteran intelligence officers. There’d been no evidence that he’d had significant health problems, though a company psych workup on him by Chad Ellis suggested he had authority issues. Could he have come down with a fatal case of advanced discord? Heath mused. He contacted the Moscow desk with a simple query: Vasilev. Top-level assessment.

  Sudden deaths like this were rarely what they seemed. Under Gorshkov’s authoritarian command, they always pointed to either political changes or political fuckups. To Heath’s thinking, Vasilev had been t
aken out the way dissident journalists were, though with fewer theatrics.

  The CIA operative began to speculate. He wrote down possibilities:

  1.Ego conflict with Federov. How big?

  2.Bad managerial decision. If so, what?

  3.Operational failure. What nature?

  4.Liability going forward. Worthy of elimination?

  Heath added one more item on the list he wasn’t prepared to share.

  5.Any connection to a Reilly inquiry?

  MOSCOW

  Now meeting with President Gorshkov, Federov took a deep breath, ready to review the findings on Reilly. He began with the bungled surveillance in London which led to agent Klenkov’s death.

  No more than two sentences in, Gorshkov screamed. First at Federov, then the FSB in general. Federov feared for his own life when the president took a Luger from his desk and waved it around maniacally. But minutes into the rant the president suddenly calmed. Federov believed it was because Gorshkov knew Klenkov had been operating under orders from his own right hand man in the Kremlin—Andre Miklos, not directly under FSB orders. However, it was a point he did not pursue.

  “Continue,” Gorshkov said as he returned the gun to his top drawer.

  “The subject appears to have retained some contacts from his military career and a Washington post, but the contacts are consistent with his international job. It’s also in line with comparable executives from Marriott, Hilton and other corporations that have ongoing relationships with US Homeland Security, the State Department, and private security firms. Their holdings are soft targets.”

  “But is he an American intelligence officer?”

  “So far we have no evidence of that,” Federov replied.

  “Do I hear yet in your voice?”

  “If I may, our chief researcher, through his exploitation of the corporate website, has discovered that Kensington Royal is developing a multitiered threat-assessment plan. That is also in line with other American corporations operating on a global scale, though theirs appears to be more comprehensive. That would explain his trip to the US embassy the night of the Kiev bombing and his meetings with Markovich and Vasilev. But …” Federov trailed off.