by Ray Kurzweil
Routinely available communication technology includes high-quality speech-to-speech language translation for most common language pairs.
Reading books, magazines, newspapers, and other web documents, listening to music, watching three-dimensional moving images (for example, television, movies), engaging in three-dimensional visual phone calls, entering virtual environments (by yourself, or with others who may be geographically remote), and various combinations of these activities are all done through the ever present communications Web and do not require any equipment, devices, or objects that are not worn or implanted.
The all-enveloping tactile environment is now widely available and fully convincing. Its resolution equals or exceeds that of human touch and can simulate (and stimulate) all of the facets of the tactile sense, including the sensing of pressure, temperature, textures, and moistness. Although the visual and auditory aspects of virtual reality involve only devices you have on or in your body (the direct-eye lenses and auditory lenses), the “total touch” haptic environment requires entering a virtual reality booth. These technologies are popular for medical examinations, as well as sensual and sexual interactions with other human partners or simulated partners. In fact, it is often the preferred mode of interaction, even when a human partner is nearby, due to its ability to enhance both experience and safety.
Business and Economics
Rapid economic expansion and prosperity has continued.
The vast majority of transactions include a simulated person, featuring a realistic animated personality and two-way voice communication with high-quality natural-language understanding. Often, there is no human involved, as a human may have his or her automated personal assistant conduct transactions on his or her behalf with other automated personalities. In this case, the assistants skip the natural language and communicate directly by exchanging appropriate knowledge structures.
Household robots for performing cleaning and other chores are now ubiquitous and reliable.
Automated driving systems have been found to be highly reliable and have now been installed in nearly all roads. While humans are still allowed to drive on local roads (although not on highways), the automated driving systems are always engaged and are ready to take control when necessary to prevent accidents. Efficient personal flying vehicles using microflaps have been demonstrated and are primarily computer controlled. There are very few transportation accidents.
Politics and Society
People are beginning to have relationships with automated personalities as companions, teachers, caretakers, and lovers. Automated personalities are superior to humans in some ways, such as having very reliable memories and, if desired, predictable (and programmable) personalities. They are not yet regarded as equal to humans in the subtlety of their personalities, although there is disagreement on this point.
An undercurrent of concern is developing with regard to the influence of machine intelligence. There continue to be differences between human and machine intelligence, but the advantages of human intelligence are becoming more difficult to identify and articulate. Computer intelligence is thoroughly interwoven into the mechanisms of civilization and is designed to be outwardly subservient to apparent human control. On the one hand, human transactions and decisions require by law a human agent of responsibility, even if fully initiated by machine intelligence. On the other hand, few decisions are made without significant involvement and consultation with machine-based intelligence.
Public and private spaces are routinely monitored by machine intelligence to prevent interpersonal violence. People attempt to protect their privacy with near-unbreakable encryption technologies, but privacy continues to be a major political and social issue with each individual’s practically every move stored in a database somewhere.
The existence of the human underclass continues as an issue. While there is sufficient prosperity to provide basic necessities (secure housing and food, among others) without significant strain to the economy, old controversies persist regarding issues of responsibility and opportunity. The issue is complicated by the growing component of most employment’s being concerned with the employee’s own learning and skill acquisition. In other words, the difference between those “productively” engaged and those who are not is not always clear.
The Arts
Virtual artists in all of the arts are emerging and are taken seriously. These cybernetic visual artists, musicians, and authors are usually affiliated with humans or organizations (which in turn are comprised of collaborations of humans and machines) that have contributed to their knowledge base and techniques. However, interest in the output of these creative machines has gone beyond the mere novelty of machines being creative.
Visual, musical, and literary art created by human artists typically involve a collaboration between human and machine intelligence.
The type of artistic and entertainment product in greatest demand (as measured by revenue generated) continues to be virtual-experience software, which ranges from simulations of “real” experiences to abstract environments with little or no corollary in the physical world.
Warfare
The primary threat to security comes from small groups combining human and machine intelligence using unbreakable encrypted communication. These include (1) disruptions to public information channels using software viruses, and (2) bioengineered disease agents.
Most flying weapons are tiny—some as small as insects—with microscopic flying weapons being researched.
Health and Medicine
Many of the life processes encoded in the human genome, which was deciphered more than ten years earlier, are now largely understood, along with the information-processing mechanisms underlying aging and degenerative conditions such as cancer and heart disease. The expected life span, which, as a result of the first Industrial Revolution (1780 through 1900) and the first phase of the second (the twentieth century), almost doubled from less than forty, has now substantially increased again, to over one hundred.
There is increasing recognition of the danger of the widespread availability of bioengineering technology. The means exist for anyone with the level of knowledge and equipment available to a typical graduate student to create disease agents with enormous destructive potential. That this potential is offset to some extent by comparable gains in bioengineered antiviral treatments constitutes an uneasy balance, and is a major focus of international security agencies.
Computerized health monitors built into watches, jewelry, and clothing which diagnose both acute and chronic health conditions are widely used. In addition to diagnosis, these monitors provide a range of remedial recommendations and interventions.
Philosophy
There are prevalent reports of computers passing the Turing Test, although these instances do not meet the criteria (with regard to the sophistication of the human judge, the length of time for the interviews, etcetera) established by knowledgeable observers. There is a consensus that computers have not yet passed a valid Turing Test, but there is growing controversy on this point.
The subjective experience of computer-based intelligence is seriously discussed, although the rights of machine intelligence have not yet entered mainstream debate. Machine intelligence is still largely the product of a collaboration between humans and machines, and has been programmed to maintain a subservient relationship to the species that created it.
OKAY, I’M HERE NOW SORRY ABOUT BEING DISTRACTED TEN YEARS AGO.
No problem. How’ve you been?
I’M FINE—BUSY—BUT HOLDING UP. GETTING READY FOR MY SON’S TENTH BIRTHDAY PARTY.
Oh, so you were pregnant last time we spoke.
I WASN’T SHOWING YET, BUT PEOPLE DID NOTICE AT THE WEDDING.
How’s he doing?
OKAY, BUT JEREMY’S A LOT TO KEEP UP WITH.
Doesn’t sound too unusual.
ANYWAY, I FOUND JEREMY WITH THIS OLDER WOMAN, LIKE MY AGE, LAST WEEK. LET’S JUST SAY, SHE DIDN’T HA
VE ALL OF HER CLOTHES ON.
Oh, really.
TURNED OUT TO BE HIS FOURTH-GRADE TEACHER.
Gee, what was she doing?
WELL, HE’D BEEN OUT SICK, SO SHE WAS GIVING HIM HIS HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT.
Without all her clothes on?
OH, SHE HAD NO IDEA.
Of course, the image transformers, I forgot.
HE’S NOT SUPPOSED TO HAVE ACCESS TO THOSE PARTICULAR TRANSFORMERS. BUT HE APPARENTLY GOT A CHILD-BLOCK OVERRIDE PATCH FROM ONE OF HIS FRIENDS. HE WON’T SAY WHO.
Some things never change.
I THINK WE HAVE THE BLOCK BACK ON NOW.
So did you discuss this with his teacher?
MISS SIMON? OH GOD, NO.
Any punishment?
ACTIVATING THE CHILD-BLOCK OVERRIDE IS JUST NOT TOLERATED IN OUR HOME. HE’S RESTRICTED FROM THE SENSORIUM FOR A MONTH.
That does sound serious. Sensorium? That’s a virtual reality thing?
ACTUALLY, SENSORIUM IS A BRAND NAME FOR THE TOTAL TOUCH ENVIRONMENT WE HAVE. IT’S A NEW MODEL WITH SOME IMPROVED OLFACTORY TECHNOLOGY. FOR JUST VISUAL-AUDITORY VIRTUAL REALITY—THAT’S PRETTY MUCH ON ALL THE TIME USING THE LENSES, YOU DON’T NEED TO USE ANYTHING SPECIAL.
So what does he do in the Sensorium?
OH, KICK BOXING, GALACTIC WRESTLING, THE USUAL TEN-YEAR-OLD STUFF. LATELY, HE’S BEEN PLAYING DOCTOR.
Uh oh, he sounds precocious.
I THINK HE’S JUST TRYING TO TEST OUR PATIENCE.
So this incident with Miss Simon, that was in the Sensorium?
NO, THAT WAS JUST A VIRTUAL REALITY PHONE CALL. JEREMY WAS HERE IN THE KITCHEN. HE HAD MISS SIMON SITTING ON THE KITCHEN TABLE.
So if he’s looking at her transformed image using his virtual reality lenses, how were you able to see her?
WELL, WE HAVE ACCESS TO OUR KIDS’ VIRTUAL REALITY ENVIRONMENTS UP UNTIL AGE FOURTEEN.
I see, so you’re simultaneously in your own virtual reality environment, and those of your children?
YES, AND DON’T FORGET REAL REALITY, NOT THAT VIRTUAL REALITY ISN’T REAL.
Isn’t that confusing, seeing and hearing all these different environments overlaying each other?
WE DON’T HEAR OUR KIDS’ VIRTUAL REALITY ENVIRONMENTS. THE NOISE WOULD DRIVE US CRAZY, AND KIDS NEED TO HAVE SOME PRIVACY, TOO. WE CAN ONLY HEAR REAL REALITY AND OUR OWN VIRTUAL REALITY. AND, WE CAN TUNE IN AND OUT OF OUR KIDS’ VIRTUAL VISUAL REALITIES. SO I TUNED IN, AND THERE WAS MISS SIMON.
What else has he been punished for?
THREE MONTHS AGO, HE WAS BLOCKING OUR CHILD VIRTUAL REALITY ACCESS. I THINK HE OT THAT FROM THE SAME FRIEND.
I’m not sure I blame him. I don’t think I would want my mother looking in on my virtual reality all the time.
WE DON’T LOOK IN ALL THE TIME; WE’RE REALLY QUITE SELECTIVE. BUT YOU HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF KIDS NOWADAYS. WE DON’T HAVE THIS PROBLEM WITH OUR DAUGHTER, EMILY.
She’s ...
SIX YEARS OLD LAST MONTH. SHE’S A REAL SWEETHEART. SHE JUST DEVOURS BOOKS.
At six, that’s impressive. She reads them by herself?
BY HERSELF? HOW ELSE WOULD SHE READ THEM?
Well, you could read them to her.
I DO THAT SOMETIMES. BUT EMILY FEELS I’M NOT ACCOMMODATING ENOUGH. SO SHE HAS HARRY HIPPO READ THEM TO HER, AND HE DOES EXACTLY WHAT SHE WANTS, AND DOESN’T TALK BACK.
This all takes place in virtual reality, I assume?
OF COURSE. I WOULDN’T WANT A REAL HIPPOPOTAMUS SITTING ON MY KITCHEN TABLE.
Not with a partially clad Miss Simon there also.
IT DOES GET TO BE A CROWDED TABLE.
So when Harry Hippo reads to Emily, she follows along in her virtual book.
SHE CAN EITHER FOLLOW ALONG HERSELF, OR SHE CAN TURN THE HIGHLIGHTING ON. THE KIDS LET THEIR FAVORITE VIRTUAL FRIEND READ TO THEM, WHILE THEY WATCH THEIR VIRTUAL BOOKS WITH THE HIGHLIGHTING FEATURE. LATER ON, THEY TURN THE HIGHLIGHTING OFF, AND EVENTUALLY, THEY DON’T NEED HARRY HIPPO, EITHER.
Kind of like taking off the training wheels.
RIGHT. Now, ONE THING THAT DOES GIVE ME COMFORT IS THAT I ALWAYS KNOW WHERE MY KIDS ARE.
In virtual reality?
No, I’M TALKING ABOUT REAL REALITY NOW. FOR EXAMPLE, I CAN SEE THAT JEREMY IS TWO BLOCKS AWAY, HEADED IN THIS DIRECTION.
An embedded chip?
THAT’S A REASONABLE GUESS. BUT IT’S NOT A CHIP EXACTLY. IT’S ONE OF THE FIRST USEFUL NANOTECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS. YOU EAT THIS STUFF.
Stuff?
YEAH, IT’S A PASTE, TASTES PRETTY GOOD, ACTUALLY. IT HAS MILLIONS OF LITTLE COMPUTERS—WE CALL THEM TRACKERS—WHICH WORK THEIR WAY INTO YOUR CELLS.
Some of them must get passed through.
THAT’S TRUE, AND THE TRACKERS THAT GET TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE TRACKERS THAT ARE STILL IN THE BODY JUST TURN THEMSELVES OFF. THE ONES THAT STAY IN YOUR BODY COMMUNICATE WITH EACH OTHER, AND WITH THE WEB.
The wireless Web?
YES, IT’S EVERYWHERE. SO I ALWAYS KNOW WHERE MY KIDS ARE. NEAT, HUH?
So does everybody have this?
KIDS ARE REQUIRED TO, SO I GUESS EVERYONE WILL HAVE IT EVENTUALLY. MANY ADULTS DO, BUT ADULTS CAN BLOCK THE TRACKING TRANSMISSION IF THEY WISH.
Kids can’t?
TRACKER BLOCKING IS SOMETHING WE REALLY DO MANAGE TO KEEP FROM OUR KIDS.
So Jeremy hasn’t gotten his hands on any tracker-blocking software?
I CERTAINLY HOPE NOT. ALTHOUGH, COME TO THINK OF IT, WE DID HAVE A TRACKER LAPSE LAST YEAR. THE TECHNICIAN SAID IT WAS A TEMPORARY PROTOCOL CONFLICT. I DOUBT THAT WAS JEREMY’S DOING. BUT NOW YOU’VE GOT ME WORRIED.
I doubt Jeremy would do something like that.
I THINK YOU’RE RIGHT.
This technician was human?
NO, THE PROBLEM WASN’T THAT SERIOUS. WE JUST USED A LEVEL-B TECHNICIAN.
I see. So is your husband plugged into the tracking system?
YEAH, BUT HE BLOCKS IT A LOT, WHICH IS ANNOYING.
Well, husbands are entitled to some privacy, too, don’t you think?
YES, DEFINITELY.
So, any other relatives you want to tell me about?
THERE’S MY TWENTY-FIVE-YEAR-OLD NEPHEW, STEPHEN. HE’S A BIT RECLUSIVE; I KNOW MY SISTER IS WORRIED ABOUT HIM. HE SPENDS ALMOST ALL OF HIS TIME IN EITHER TOTAL TOUCH OR IN VIRTUAL-REALITY BLOCKING-DISPLAY MODE.
That’s a problem?
IT’S NOT JUST THAT HE BLOCKS OUT REAL REALITY, IT’S THAT HE SEEMS TO AVOID INTERACTING WITH REAL PEOPLE, EVEN IN VIRTUAL REALITY IT SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY COMMON PROBLEM.
I guess simulated people are more accommodating.
THEY CAN BE. I MEAN, MY OWN ASSISTANTS AND COMPANIONS ARE, BUT TRY DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLE’S ASSISTANTS, AND THAT’S A DIFFERENT MATTER. ANYWAY, MY SISTER WAS TELLING ME HOW SHE THOUGHT THAT STEPHEN WAS A CYBER VIRGIN, OR DID SHE SAY VIRTUAL VIRGIN?
Oh dear, now what was the distinction again?
YOU KNOW, A CYBER VIRGIN HAS NEVER HAD INTERCOURSE OUTSIDE OF VIRTUAL REALITY, WHEREAS A VIRTUAL VIRGIN HAS NEVER HAD INTERCOURSE WITH A REAL PERSON, EVEN IN VIRTUAL REALITY.
How about someone who has never been intimate with a real or simulated person in real or virtual reality?
HMM, WE DON’T SEEM TO HAVE A TERM FOR THAT.
So what are the statistics on this?
WELL, LET’S SEE, GEORGE WILL GET THAT FOR US.
George is your virtual assistant?
YEAH, YOU CATCH ON QUICKLY.
Gee, thanks.
