by Ray Kurzweil
SO, FOR ADULTS OVER TWENTY-FIVE, 11 PERCENT ARE VIRTUAL VIRGINS, AND 19 PERCENT ARE CYBER VIRGINS.
So I guess virtual sex is catching on. How about you and Ben?
WELL, I DEFINITELY PREFER THE REAL THING!
Real, as in ...
REAL REALITY, RIGHT.
So you prefer intimacy in real reality, meaning you don’t avoid the virtual alternative?
WELL, IT’S RIGHT THERE, I MEAN WE’D HAVE TO GO OUT OF OUR WAY TO AVOID IT. IT’S CERTAINLY CONVENIENT IF I’M TRAVELING, OR IF WE DON’T WANT TO WORRY ABOUT BIRTH CONTROL.
Or STDs.
WELL, THAT SHOULDN’T BE AN ISSUE.
Hey, you never know.
WELL, TO BE PERFECTLY HONEST, VIRTUAL SEX IS MUCH MORE SATISFACTORY IN MANY WAYS. I MEAN IT’S DEFINITELY MORE INTENSE, PRETTY INCREDIBLE ACTUALLY.
This is in the Sensorium, I assume.
YEAH, SURE. THIS RECENT MODEL HAS REALLY ADDRESSED THE OLFACTORY ISSUE.
Meaning it has an olfactory capability?
RIGHT. IT’S A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN THE OTHER SENSES, THOUGH. WITH THE VISUAL AND AUDITORY SENSE, JUST PLAIN OLD UBIQUITOUS VIRTUAL REALITY IS EXTREMELY ACCURATE. IN THE SENSORIUM, WE GET THE TACTILE ENVIRONMENT, WHICH ALSO PROVIDES AN EXTREMELY LIFELIKE RE-CREATION. BUT WE CAN’T DO THAT YET WITH THE SENSE OF SMELL. SO THE SENSORIUM 2000 HAS PROGRAMMED SCENTS, WHICH YOU CAN CHOOSE, OR THAT ARE AUTOMATICALLY SELECTED IN THE COURSE OF AN EXPERIENCE. THEY’RE STILL PRETTY EFFECTIVE.
How do you feel about your husband interacting sexually with a simulated partner?
YOU MEAN, A SIMULATED PERSON IN VIRTUAL REALITY?
Yeah, in virtual reality or in the Sensorium.
THAT’S FINE. I HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH THAT.
You don’t mind?
THERE’S REALLY NO WAY I COULD KEEP TRACK OF IT.
Virtual lipstick on his collar?
YEAH, RIGHT, ON HIS VIRTUAL COLLAR. VIRTUAL SEX WITH SIMULATED PARTNERS IS GENERALLY ACCEPTED NOWADAYS. IT’S REALLY REGARDED AS A FORM OF FANTASY—IT’S JUST ASSISTED FANTASY.
And if the partner’s a real person in virtual reality?
I’D BREAK HIS LEGS.
His virtual legs?
THAT’S NOT WHAT I HAD IN MIND.
So what’s the difference between a real person in virtual reality and a simulated person?
AS SENSUAL PARTNERS?
Right.
OH, THERE’S A DIFFERENCE—THE SIMULATED PARTNERS ARE PRETTY GOOD, BUT IT’S JUST NOT THE SAME.
Sounds like you’ve had some experience with this yourself.
PRETTY NOSY, AREN’T YOU?
All right, I’ll change the subject. Let’s see, uh, what’s happening with encryption?
WE HAVE VERY STABLE THOUSAND-BIT CODES. IT’S NOT PRACTICAL TO BREAK THEM.
What about with a quantum computer?
THE QUANTUM COMPUTERS DON’T SEEM TO BE STABLE WITH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED QU-BITS.
Sounds like communication is pretty secure.
I WOULD SAY SO. BUT SOME PEOPLE ARE PARANOID ABOUT THE THIRD-PARTY KEYS.
So the authorities have keys?
OF COURSE.
Well, can’t you just put another layer of encryption without a key over the official layer?
GOD, NO.
Why is that so hard?
OH, IT’S NOT DIFFICULT TECHNICALLY. IT’S JUST VERY ILLEGAL, CERTAINLY SINCE OCTOBER 2013.
2013?
WE MANAGED TO GET THROUGH THE FIRST DECADE OF THIS CENTURY WITHOUT TOO SERIOUS A PROBLEM. BUT THINGS GOT OUT OF CONTROL IN THE OKLAHOMA INCIDENT.
Oklahoma again. So this was a software virus?
No, NOT A SOFTWARE VIRUS, A BIOLOGICAL VIRUS. A DISGRUNTLED—I WOULD SAY DEMENTED—STUDENT, ACTUALLY A FORMER STUDENT AT THE UNIVERSITY THERE. THERE WERE REPORTS THAT HE WAS LINKED TO THE REMEMBER YORK MOVEMENT, BUT THE RY DISCUSSION LEADERS VEHEMENTLY DENIED ANY RESPONSIBILITY.
Remember York?
WELL, THIS INCIDENT OCCURRED ON THE TWO HUNDREDTH ANNIVERSARY OF THE YORK TRIALS.
Oh, you mean the 1813 trial of the Luddites?
YES, EXCEPT THAT MOST ANTITECHNOLOGISTS DON’T LIKE THE TERM LUDDITE ANYMORE; THEY FEEL THAT THE SOMEWHAT SILLY IMAGE OF NED LUDD BELITTLES THE SERIOUS NATURE OF THEIR MOVEMENT. BEYOND THAT, THE BEST EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT LUDD NEVER EXISTED.
But there was a trial in 1813.
YES, WHICH RESULTED IN MANY OF THE GANG MEMBERS ACCUSED OF WRECKING THE TEXTILE MACHINES BEING HANGED OR EXILED.
So RY is an organized movement?
OH, I WOULDN’T SAY THAT. IT IS MORE OF A WEB DISCUSSION GROUP, AND THIS YOUNG MAN APPARENTLY HAD PARTICIPATED IN SOME OF THOSE DISCUSSIONS. BUT THE RY PEOPLE ARE BASICALLY NONVIOLENT. THEY WERE DISTRESSED THAT ROBERTS HAD ASSOCIATED HIMSELF WITH THEM.
Roberts was the perpetrator?
YEAH, CONVICTED ON ALL COUNTS. BUT ASIDE FROM THIS ONE DISTURBED INDIVIDUAL, I WOULD SAY IT WAS REALLY A SCREWUP BY THE BWA.
BWA?
BIOWARFARE AGENCY.
So this was a virus that was unleashed?
YES, JUST A STANDARD MODIFIED FLU VIRUS, ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A TWIST. IT HAD A GREATLY INCREASED MUTATION RATE, WHICH ACCELERATED ITS EVOLUTION AT SEVERAL LEVELS. ONE FORM OF THE VIRUS’S EVOLUTION ONLY TOOK PLACE DURING AN INFECTION. THIS, TOGETHER WITH A TIME-BOMB PROGRAM IN THE VIRUS’S DNA, CAUSED ULTRA-RAPID VIRAL REPRODUCTION AFTER A FEW HOURS OF INFECTION. THIS LITTLE COMPLEXITY DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANTIDOTE FOR FORTY-EIGHT HOURS. BUT THAT WASN’T THE WORST OF IT. AFTER TWENTY-FOUR HOURS OF REPLICATING THE ANTIDOTE, THE BWA DISCOVERED THAT ANOTHER BIOLOGICAL AGENT HAD INFECTED THE BATCHES, SO THEY HAD TO START OVER. AND THEN, THERE WEREN’T ENOUGH REPLICATION STATIONS, SO THEY HAD TO CLEAN OUT THE ONES THEY HAD JUST USED, AND GO FROM THERE. FORTY-EIGHT HOURS WERE LOST IN THIS FIASCO, AND SIXTEEN THOUSAND PEOPLE DIED. WELL, IF THINGS HAD BEEN DELAYED FOR ANOTHER TWENTY-FOUR HOURS, IT WOULD HAVE BEEN FAR WORSE. IT WAS A BIG ISSUE IN THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS OF 2014. THERE’VE BEEN A LOT OF CHANGES SINCE THEN.
The third-party keys?
YEAH, THOSE EXISTED BEFORE. BUT SINCE 2013 THE LAWS AGAINST KEYLESS ENCRYPTION CODES HAVE BEEN RIGOROUSLY ENFORCED.
What else has changed?
THERE ARE PLENTY OF ANTIVIRAL REPLICATION STATIONS NOW. AND WE ALL HAVE THESE CUTE LITTLE GAS MASKS.
That little thimble is a gas mask?
YEAH, WELL, IT UNFOLDS LIKE THIS. IT’S SMALL, SO WE’RE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP THEM CLOSE AT HAND. IT’S ACTUALLY A VIRAL SCREEN MASK. OCCASIONALLY, WE’RE TOLD TO PUT THEM ON, BUT GENERALLY IT’S ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS. SINCE 2013, THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY FALSE ALARMS.
So I guess the security agencies have been hard at work.
As WILL ROGERS USED TO SAY, “YOU CAN’T SAY THAT CIVILIZATION DON’T ADVANCE, FOR IN EVERY WAR THEY KILL YOU IN A NEW WAY.”
2013 sounds tragic, and frightening. As centuries go, however, it doesn’t sound like you’re doing too badly. In the twentieth century, we knew how to have disasters.
YEAH, FIFTY MILLION PEOPLE DIED IN WORLD WAR II.
Indeed.
IT’S TRUE THAT THE CENTURY SO FAR HAS SEEN MUCH LESS BLOODSHED. BUT THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN IS THAT THE TECHNOLOGIES ARE SO MUCH MORE POWERFUL TODAY. IF SOMETHING DID GO WRONG, THINGS COULD SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL VERY QUICKLY. WITH BIOENGINEERING, FOR EXAMPLE, IT FEELS A LITTLE LIKE ALL TEN BILLION OF US ARE STANDING IN A ROOM UP TO OUR KNEES IN A FLAMMABLE FLUID, WAITING FOR SOMEONE—ANYONE—TO LIGHT A MATCH.
But it sounds like a lot of fire extinguishers have been installed.
YEAH, I JUST HOPE THEY WORK.
You know, I’ve been concerned about the downside of bioengineering for well over a decade now.
BUT YOU DIDN’T WRITE ABOUT IT IN THE AGE OF INTELLIGENT MACHINES, WHICH YOU
WROTE IN THE LATE 1980s.
That was a conscious decision. I didn’t want to give the wrong person any ideas.
AND IN 1999?
Oh, the cat’s out of the bag now.
YEAH, WELL, WE’VE BEEN SCURRYING AFTER THE DESCENDANT
S OF THAT CAT FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DECADES, TRYING TO KEEP THEM FROM CAUSING TOO MUCH MISCHIEF.
Just wait until the nanopathogens get going.
FORTUNATELY, THEY’RE NOT SELF-REPLICATING.
Not yet.
I SUPPOSE THAT’S COMING, TOO, BUT THE TRACKER PASTE AND THE OTHER FEW NANOTECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS THAT ARE OUT THERE TODAY ARE MADE USING X-RAY LITHOGRAPHY AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL MANUFACTURING TECHNIQUES.
Well, enough of disasters, what are you up to tonight?
I’M GIVING A LECTURE ON MY EXPERIENCE LAST WEEK AS A TURING TEST JUDGE.
I assume the computer lost.
YES, SHE DID. BUT IT WASN’T THE SLAM DUNK I THOUGHT IT WOULD BE. AT THE BEGINNING, I WAS THINKING, GEE, THIS IS A LOT HARDER THAN I HAD EXPECTED. I REALLY CAN’T TELL WHO THE COMPUTER IS, OR WHO THE HUMAN FOIL IS. AFTER ABOUT TWENTY MINUTES, IT DID BECOME FAIRLY CLEAR TO ME, AND I’M GLAD I HAD ENOUGH TIME. A FEW OF THE OTHER JUDGES JUST HAD NO IDEA, BUT THEY WEREN’T VERY SOPHISTICATED.
I guess your communications background came in handy.
ACTUALLY IT WAS MORE MY MOMMY BACKGROUND. I BECAME SUSPICIOUS WHEN SHEILA—SHE WAS THE COMPUTER—STARTED TALKING ABOUT HOW ANGRY SHE WAS AT HER DAUGHTER. THAT WAS NOT CONVINCING FOR ME. SHE JUST WASN’T SYMPATHETIC ENOUGH.
How about George, how would he fare in a Turing Test?
OH, I WOULDN’T WANT TO SUBJECT GEORGE TO THAT.
You’re concerned about his feelings?
I GUESS YOU COULD SAY THAT. I KIND OF GO BACK AND FORTH. SOMETIMES, I THINK I’M NOT. BUT THEN WHEN I’M INTERACTING WITH HIM, I FIND MYSELF ACTING AS IF HE HAS FEELINGS. AND, SOMETIMES, I LOOK FORWARD TO TELLING HIM SOMETHING I’VE EXPERIENCED, PARTICULARLY IF WE’RE WORKING ON IT TOGETHER.
I see you picked a male assistant.
SURE, YOUR PREDICTION THAT WOMEN WOULD PREFER FEMALE PERSONALITIES WAS ANOTHER MISS.
That prediction was for 2009, not 2019.
I’M GLAD YOU CLARIFIED THAT. COME TO THINK OF IT, I DID USE A FEMALE PERSONALITY IN 2009, BUT THEY WEREN’T VERY REALISTIC THEN. ANYWAY, I HAVE TO GET GOING TO MY LECTURE. BUT IF I THINK OF ANYTHING ELSE INTERESTING TO TELL YOU, I’LL HAVE MY VIRTUAL ASSISTANT CONTACT YOURS.
Hey, I don’t have one, remember I’m stuck in 1999.
TOO BAD. I GUESS I’LL JUST HAVE TO VISIT YOU MYSELF THEN.
“Smaller, more powerful chips allow me to have a smaller head.”
CHAPTER ELEVEN
2029
I’m as fond of my body as anyone else, but if I can be 200 with a body of silicon, I’ll take it.
—Danny Hillis
The Computer Itself
A $1,000 unit of computation (in circa-1999 dollars) has the computing capacity of approximately 1,000 human brains (1,000 times 20 million billion—that is, 2 times 1019—calculations per second).
Of the total computing capacity of the human species (that is, all human brains) combined with the computing technology humans initiated the creation of, more than 99 percent is nonhuman.1
The vast majority of “computes” of nonhuman computing is now conducted on massively parallel neural nets, much of which is based on the reverse engineering of the human brain.
Many—but less than a majority—of the specialized regions of the human brain have been “decoded” and their massively parallel algorithms have been deciphered. The number of specialized regions, amounting to hundreds, is greater than was anticipated twenty years earlier. The topologies and architectures of those regions that have been successfully reverse engineered are used in machine-based neural nets. The machine-based nets are substantially faster and have greater computing and memory capacities and other refinements compared to their human analogues.
Displays are now implanted in the eyes, with a choice of permanent implants or removable implants (similar to contact lenses). Images are projected directly onto the retina providing the usual high-resolution three-dimensional overlay on the physical world. These implanted visual displays also act as cameras to capture visual images and thus are both input and output devices.
Cochlear implants, originally used just for the hearing impaired, are now ubiquitous. These implants provide auditory communication in both directions between the human user and the worldwide computing network.
Direct neural pathways have been perfected for high-bandwidth connection to the human brain. This allows bypassing certain neural regions (for example, visual pattern recognition, long-term memory) and augmenting or replacing the functions of these regions with computing performed either in a neural implant or externally
A range of neural implants is becoming available to enhance visual and auditory perception and interpretation, memory, and reasoning.
Computing processes can be personal (accessible by one individual), shared (accessible to a group), or universal (accessible to everyone), at the user’s option.
Three-dimensional projected holographic displays are everywhere.
Microscopic nanoengineered robots now have microbrains with the computing speed and capacity of the human brain. They are widely used in industrial applications and are beginning to be used in medical applications (see “Health and Medicine”).
Education
Human learning is primarily accomplished using virtual teachers and is enhanced by the widely available neural implants. The implants improve memory and perception, but it is not yet possible to download knowledge directly. Although enhanced through virtual experiences, intelligent interactive instruction, and neural implants, learning still requires time-consuming human experience and study This activity comprises the primary focus of the human species.
Automated agents are learning on their own without human spoon-feeding of information and knowledge. Computers have read all available human and machine-generated literature and multimedia material, which includes written, auditory, visual, and virtual experience works.
Significant new knowledge is created by machines with little or no human intervention. Unlike humans, machines easily share knowledge structures with one another.
Disabilities
The prevalence of highly intelligent visual navigation devices for the blind, speech-to-print display devices for the deaf, nerve stimulation, intelligent orthotic prosthetics for the physically disabled, and a variety of neural implant technologies has essentially eliminated the handicaps associated with most disabilities. Sensory-enhancement devices are in fact used by most of the population.
Communication
In addition to the ubiquitous, three-dimensional virtual environments; there has been significant refinement to three-dimensional holographic technology for visual communication. There is also projected sonic communication for precisely placing sounds in three-dimensional space. Similar to virtual reality, much of what is seen and heard in “real” reality also has no physical counterpart. Thus family members can be sitting around the living room enjoying one another’s company without being physically proximate.
In addition, there is extensive use of communication using direct neural connections. This allows virtual, all-enveloping tactile communication to take place without entering a “total touch enclosure,” as was necessary ten years earlier.
