Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy

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by Raghuram G. Rajan


  19 See Sam Dillon “Obama to Seek Sweeping Change in ‘No Child’ Law,” New York Times, February 1, 2010.

  20 See Haskin and Sawhill, Creating an Opportunity Society, 149.

  21 Ibid., 153.

  22 Ibid., 158.

  23 This paragraph is based on David Deming and Susan Dynarski, “Into College and Out of Poverty? Policies to Increase the Post-Secondary Attainment of the Poor,” NBER Working Paper 15387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, 2009.

  24 Susan Dynarski, The Economics of Student Aid, NBER Reporter Research Summary 2007, no. 1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, 2007.

  25 OECD, Health Data 2008: Statistics and Indicators for 30 Countries (Paris: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2008).

  26 The peer group consisted of Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. See Alan Garber and Jonathan Skinner, “Is American Healthcare Uniquely Inefficient?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 22, no. 4 (Fall 2008): 27–50.

  27 This and the next paragraph rely on Garber and Skinner, “Is American Healthcare Uniquely Inefficient?”

  28 Chris Peterson and Rachel Burton, US Healthcare Spending: Comparison with Other OECD Countries (Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2007).

  29 Andrew Pollack, “Hospitals Look to Nuclear Tool to Fight Cancer,” New York Times, December 26, 2007.

  30 See Garber and Skinner, “Is American Healthcare Uniquely Inefficient?”

  31 Katherine Baicker, Elliott S. Fisher, and Amitabh Chandra, “Malpractice Liability Costs and the Practice of Medicine in the Medicare Program,” Health Affairs 26, no. 3 (May–June 2007): 841–52.

  32 For the highly paid workers in the financial sector, I argue that having a stake in the firm can improve incentives. However, some reasonable portion of their savings should be independent of the health of their firms.

  33 See, for instance, Robert Shiller, The New Financial Order (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003), 118–19.

  34 The next few paragraphs draw on my previous book with Luigi Zingales, Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2004).

  35 Shlomo Benartzi and Richard Thaler, “Save More Tomorrow: Using Behavioral Economics to Increase Employee Savings,” unpublished manuscript, University of Chicago.

  Chapter Ten. The Fable of the Bees Replayed

  1 Bernard Mandeville, The Fable of the Bees (1714) (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1957).

  2 Ibid.

  3 Yashwant Sinha, speech at World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland, January 2001.

  4 Jeffry Frieden, “Global Imbalances, National Rebalancing, and the Political Economy of Recovery,” working paper, Council on Foreign Relations, New York, 2009.

  5 Ibid.

  6 “Leaders’ Statement: The Pittsburgh Summit,” Pittsburgh Summit, www.pittsburgh summit.gov/mediacenter/129639.htm, September 25, 2009.

  7 M. Goldstein and N. Lardy, The Future of China’s Exchange Rate Policy (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2009).

  8 See Dani Rodrik, “The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth,” working paper, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2008.

  9 See George Monbiot, “Keynes Is Innocent: The Toxic Spawn of Bretton Woods Was No Plan of His,” Guardian, November 18, 2008.

  10 See Eswar S. Prasad, “Is the Chinese Growth Miracle Built to Last?” China Economic Review 20 (2009): 103–23.

  11 Economists will see that I am arguing here that the income effect swamps the substitution effect.

  12 See Tarun Khanna and Yasheng Huang, “Can India Overtake China?” Foreign Policy (July–August 2003): 75–81.

  Epilogue

  1 Cited in “Counting Their Blessings,” Economist, January 2, 2010.

  INDEX

  The index that appeared in the print version of this title was intentionally removed from the e-Book. Please use the search function on your e-Reading device to search for terms of interest. For your reference, the terms that appear in the print index are listed below.

  affordable housing mandate

  Alesina, Alberto

  Alger, Horatio

  alpha (excess returns)

  Alphatec

  American International Group (AIG): bailout of compensation of employees and managers of credit default swaps of customers of financial problems of Financial Products unit of

  Angeletos, George-Marios

  annuities

  antitrust regulations

  Argentina: G-20 membership of state-owned enterprises in

  Aristotle

  arm’s length systems: of employment financial

  Asia: economic growth in exchangerate policies in exports of financial crisis of financial systems in foreign debt of governments in recovery from crisissavings in, See also specific countries

  asset-backed securities. See mortgage-backed securities

  asset prices: departures from fundamentals increases in See also housing market

  Australia, economic growth of

  automobile industry: government

  bailouts of in India

  Bagehot, Walter

  bailouts: of AIG of automobile industry of banks of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac political consequences of shortcomings of

  Bank of America

  Bank of Japan

  Bank of North Dakota

  bankruptcies

  banks: bailouts of boards of CEOs of compensation in competition among debt of deposit insurance for deposits in in developing countries failures of financial system roles of lending standards of loans to developing countries by mortgage-backed securities held by

  mortgage lending process of off–balance sheet assets of organizational complexity of performance measurement in power of proprietary trading by regional revolving door with government risk exposures of risk managers in rural shareholders of short-term debt of state-owned stock prices of, too systemic to fail transparent structures of See also central banks; financialsystems; investment banks; regulationbanking

  Barofsky, Neil

  Bear Stearns

  behavioral economics

  Benartzi, Shlomo

  benchmarking

  Bernanke, Ben

  Bloomberg, Michael

  bond holders

  bonds: covered insurers of See also government bonds; interest rates

  Brandeis, Louis

  Brazil: economic reforms in exchange-rate policies of financial crisis in interest spreads in

  brokers, mortgage

  Brown, Gordon

  bubbles: development of dot-com Federal Reserve policies and in Japan, See also housing market

  budget deficits, federal

  buffers, capital

  bureaucracies

  Bush, George H. W.

  Bush, George W.

  Bush (George W.) administration

  businesses. See firms

  business schools

  Calomiris, Charles W.

  Camdessus, Michel

  Canada, health care costs in capital: buffers contingent organizational physical requirements for banks venture See also human capital

  capitalism: competitive markets in crony, free-enterprise, relationship (managed) self-interest in

  Carville, James

  Cassano, Joseph

  Cayne, James

  CDOs. See collateralized debt obligations

  central banks: Chinese of developing countries objectives of purchases of dollar assets regulatory responsibilities of resources for managing crises See also Federal Reserve; interest rates; monetary policy

  chaebols

  Chanos, James

  charitable giving

  charter schools

  children: Chinese one-child policy development of health and nutrition of, See also education

  Chile, economic growth of

  China: consumption in economic growth of energy consumption in exchange-rate intervention
by export-led growth strategy of exports of foreign reserves of interest rates in investment in middle class in one-child policy of reforms in savings in state-owned enterprises in

  Chrysler

  Citigroup: board members of

  CEO of off–balance sheet assets of risk managers of risks taken by salaries in stock price of

  climate change

  Clinton, Bill

  Clinton administration

  CLOs. See collateralized loan obligations

  cognitive capture

  Cole, Shawn

  collateralized debt obligations (CDOs)

  collateralized loan obligations (CLOs)

  colleges. See higher education

  Community Reinvestment Act (CRA)

  conglomerates

  consumption: in China in developing countries discouragement of of energy excess in Japan of middle class political pressure for economic stimulus to in United States

  contingent capital

  corruption

  CRA. See Community Reinvestment Act credit: benefits and costs of easy definition of democratization of

  credit card debt

  credit default swaps

  credit markets: access to in developing countries expansion of government intervention in informal microcredit political pressure for easy credit See also subprime mortgage market

  credit ratings, of mortgage-backed securities

  crises. See financial crises

  crony capitalism

  currencies. See exchange-rate policies

  current-account balances

  debt: consumer government household negative views of,See also credit markets; foreign debt; mortgages

  Defoe, Daniel, A Plan of the English Commerce

  demand: in housing market interest rate levels and in United States, See also consumption

  democracies

  democratization of credit

  Dennis, William

  deposit insurance

  deregulation

  developing countries: central banks of consumption in current-account surpluses of

  economic growth of excess

  savings of exchange-rate policies

  of, financial systems of

  foreign debt of

  foreign

  exchange reserves of foreign

  investment in microcredit

  in organizational capital in

  poverty in trade deficits

  of trade surpluses of

  Dimon, Jamie

  disability payments

  dot-com bubble

  Douthat, Ross

  early developers

  earthquake, Haitian

  earthquake insurance

  East Asia. See Asia; specific countries

  East India Company

  economic growth: of developing countries financial sector role in global policy coordination for of industrial countries of late developers moderated fluctuations in monetary policy and See also export-led growth strategies; recessions

  economists: debates on credit access

  failings of technology used

  education: accountability class sizes distance early childhood family influences and formal human capital formation improving quality of increased attainment rates inequality in intrinsic worth of No Child Left Behind Act ongoing parental choice quality of relationship to incomes school year lengths student performance of teachers teaching quality technology in, See also higher education

  efficient markets hypothesis

  elevator ladies

  Elizabeth I, Queen

  Embraer

  Emmanuel, Rahm

  employment: Federal Reserve policies and hiring process and jobless recoveries layoffs motivations in on-the-job training political pressure for economic stimulus portable benefits sabbaticals skills needed in technological change and temporary See also labor force; unemployment rates

  employment benefits. See health insurance

  energy use

  England, See also United Kingdom

  Enron

  environmental sustainability

  Europe: covered bonds held by banks firms in, See also specific countries

  European Central Bank

  European Union (EU)exchange-rate policies: of Brazil of China of developing countries of India of Japan

  expectations hypothesis

  export-led growth strategies: of China dependence on foreign consumers, in future of Germany of Japan of late developers managed capitalism and success of transition to balanced economy weaknesses of

  exports: of China, of India of Japan, of South Korea of Taiwan, See also trade

  The Fable of the Bees (Mandeville) family influences on education and human capital

  Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association): establishment of foreign investors in government takeover of, lending to support housing prices losses of mandate of mortgage-backed securities issued by, reforms of role in subprime crisis

  fault lines: consequences of in future geological income inequality in United States as interaction of arm’s-length and relationship-based financial systems political reforms needed to address systemic trade imbalances

  FDIC Improvement Act of

  Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)

  Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation. See Freddie Mac

  Federal Housing Administration (FHA)

  Federal National Mortgage Association.

  See Fannie Mae

  Federal Reserve: Bernanke as chairman of Bernanke as governor of establishment of Greenspan as chairman of Greenspan put and healthy-economy mandate of independence of inflation-fighting policies of influence of interest-rate cuts by, interest-rate hikes by interest-rate policies of mistakes by mortgage-backed security purchases by objectives of political pressures on reforms of regulatory responsibilities of responses to recession of Survey of Consumer Finances

  Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

  Feldstein, Martin

  Ferguson, Niall

  FHA. See Federal Housing Administration

  financial crises: of Asian (1998) in India in Japan Mexican (1994) resilience of systems resources for managing See also fault lines

  financial markets See also securitization; stock market

  financial systems: arm’s length, competition in deregulation of of developing countries economic growth and incentives in innovation in monetary policy and public distrust of redundancy in reforms in regulation of relationship-based resilience of, See also banks; investment banks

  firms: conglomerates differences between American and other political power of regulation of,See also banks

  fiscal stimulus: discretionary in jobless recoveries Keynesian doctrine of Obama administration package (2009) political

  pressure for in United States

  FNMA (Federal National Mortgage Association). See Fannie Mae

  food prices

  foreign debt: of developing countries fickleness of financers, in foreign currencies, Mexican crisis (1994) reducing short-term

  foreign exchange reserves: of China of developing countries

  foreign investment: in developing countries in East Asia in mortgage-backed securities in U.S. government bonds

  Formosa Plastics Group

  France: annuities sold by monarchy automobile industry in energy consumption in health care costs in social welfare spending in state-owned enterprises in unemployment benefits in

  Franklin, Benjamin

 

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