linked complexity of, 276–77
Panic of 1998 (See Panic of 1998)
Panic of 2008 (See Panic of 2008)
Swiss franc shock of 2015 as, 270–71
ten-year Treasury bonds yield crash in 2014 as, 269–70
volatility of, 274–75
Fort Knox, 64
Fortune, 18
forward guidance, 177–78
Foucault, Michael, 183
fracking industry, debts of, 197–98
fractional reserve banking, 59
France, 83
Franco, Francisco, 257
Frank, Waldo, 259
Frayne, Hugh, 257
Freddie Mac, 165
Freeland, Chrystia, 291, 293, 298–99, 301
free trade, 211–20, 226–29
absolute versus comparative advantage and, 211–13
cheating by trade partners, effect of, 215–16
Democrat/Republican agreement on issue of, 228–29
externalities and, 215
floating exchange rate regime and, 213–14
global corporations’ ability to offset U.S. comparative advantage, effect of, 217–19
job loss and, 216
lack of basis for comparison of measurements as flaw in, 213
mobility of factors of production as flaw in, 214
static versus dynamic comparative advantage and, 214–15
freezing of markets. See ice-nine freezing or lockdown of markets and
frequentist statistical models, 184, 185, 186
Friedman, Milton, 7, 44, 66–67, 179–80, 185, 208, 214, 222, 226–27
Fukushima disaster, 276–77
Fuld, Dick, 168
G7, 75
G20, 18, 79, 83, 90
BEPS (Base Erosion and Profit Shifting) enforcement plan of, 75–78
Brisbane bail-in template of, 25–26, 35
warnings of increasing financial risk issued by, 47, 48
gambler’s fallacy, 107
Game Change (movie), 168
Gates, Bill, 141
Geithner, Tim, 40, 70, 153, 155, 207
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, 215
General Electric, 19
Geneva Report, 224–26, 229
Gensler, Gary, 138–39
George V, King, 4
Germany, 83, 203
Giovannini, Alberto, 123
Glass-Steagall Act, repeal of, 121, 153–54, 155
global elites, 56–91
ascent of, in 1989, 222
belief that they are doing good of, 58
economic theories subscribed to by, 205–30
floating sphere model and, 57–58
ice-nine plan of (See ice-nine freezing or lockdown of markets)
meetings of, 56–57
postcrisis plan of, 278–80
warnings of increasing financial risk due issued by, 47–49
world money agenda of, 59–71
world order agenda of, 81–89
world taxation agenda of, 72–81
globalization, 36, 217, 222
global taxation. See world taxation
Godfather Part II (movie), 17
gold, 186–94, 207
Chinese acquisition of, 71, 88, 278–79
classical gold standard, 36, 61
commodity value versus monetary value of, 188–89
dollar-gold convertibility abandoned, in 1971, 23, 43, 61, 65–66, 193, 208, 221
dollar-gold peg agreed to at Bretton Woods, 41, 42, 65
fake 400-ounce bullion bar delivery to China, 188–89
floating supply of, 191–92
Ford’s Executive Order 11825 removing strictures on, 40
400-ounce London good delivery bars, origins of, 63–64
IMF demonetization of, 61, 67
investing in, 282–84
monetary role of, 59–60, 61, 187–88
Panic of 1914 and, 36–37, 38
physical, tight supplies of, 190–93
Roosevelt’s Executive Order 6102 confiscating, 40, 64
First World War and, 36–38, 61–64
Second World War and, 40, 65
Goldberg, Jonah, 257, 258
Golden Fetters (Eichengreen), 201
Goldman Sachs, 29, 120, 138, 140–41, 142, 171, 202, 264
Gold Reserve Act of 1934, 64
gold standard, 36
Google, 254, 255, 262
Gramm, Phil, 154, 155
Great Britain, 83, 215–16
Great Depression, 27, 38–40, 179–80, 220, 230, 260
bank runs in U.S. during, 39
in Europe, 38–39
Glass-Steagall Act passed in response to, 153–54
gold confiscation Executive Order and, 40
Roosevelt’s closing of banks as response to, 40
Roosevelt’s economic improvisations, effect of, 182–83
Great Society, 260
Greece, 51
sovereign debt crisis of 2015 in, 24, 26–27
Greenberg, Hank, 120, 140
Greenspan, Alan, 67, 234
deflation, response to, 228
dot-com bubble, response to, 180
interest rate cuts during LTCM crisis of, 45, 46, 119
policy responses in aftermath of LTCM of, 121, 149–53
gross notional value
defined, 145
derivatives risk as function of scale measured by, 142–49, 150, 157–58
increase in derivatives, from 2001 to 2007, 159
Gruber, Jonathan, 210
G-SIFI (globally systemic important financial institution), 18–19
Gutfreund, John, 122
Hahn, Dave, 134
Hamilton, Alexander, 219
Harvard University, 94, 207
Hawkins, Greg, 123
Hayek, Friedrich, 6, 222
health insurance companies, 262
hedge funds, 286–87
helicopter money theory, 67
Henderson, Kevin and Lisa, 247
Herfindahl index, 159
Hilsenrath, Jon, 183
Hippocratic oath, 183
historical-cultural method of prediction, 3
Historical school of economics, 14, 234–35
Hitler, Adolph, 256, 257, 258, 261–62
“Hollow Men, The” (Eliot), 202
Holy Roman Empire, 82
Hoover, Herbert, 39, 258–60
Hoover, J. Edgar, 244
Hooyman, Chris, 134
Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, 165
“How to Finance Global Reflation” (Sheng), 87–88
HSBC, 189–90, 278–79
Hui, Pak Ming, 112
ICBC, 279
ice-nine freezing or lockdown of markets, 22–34, 280
ATM withdrawals, control over, 33
bail-ins and, 25–26
bank lockdowns and, 24–27
bank teller withdrawals, control over, 33–34
bondholder bail-in proposal of FSB and, 31
Bretton Woods system as, 43
Brisbane G20 bail-in template and, 25–26, 35
capital controls and, 32–33
capital surcharge requirements for banks and, 31
cash and carry curb exchanges and, 27–28
countries, applicability to, 32–33
Cyprus banking crisis of 2012 and, 24–25
dollar-gold convertibility abandonment as, 43
early termination rights of derivatives, Federal Reserve rule requiring abandonment of, 32
emergency economic powers and martial law powers avail
able in U.S. for, 49–51
FSB template for, 26
Great Depression and, 38–40
Greek sovereign debt crisis of 2015 and, 24, 26–27
negative interest rates and, 28–30
New York Stock Exchange closing in Panic of 1914 and, 37–38
SEC rule allowing money market funds to suspend investor redemptions and, 27
trading contracts, applicability to, 31–32
warnings of increasing financial risk and, 49
war on cash and, 27–30
import duties, 219
income inequality, 223, 227, 236–38
Indonesia, 132
inflation, 42, 44
deflation-inflation tug-of-war in current market environment, 195–96
as element of global elite’s postcrisis plan, 279
intellectual property transfers, 73
interaction, 108
in capital markets, 11
Intergovernmental Agreements (IGAs), 79
Internal Revenue Service (IRS), 255
International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB) Geneva Report, 47
International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA), 50
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 18, 45, 79, 83, 90
Asian financial crisis, response to, 132–33
creation and role of, 41–42
demonetization of gold by, 61, 67
gold holdings of, 187
warnings of increasing financial risk issued by, 48
Islam, 83–85
Isle of Man, 76–77
Italy, 203
“It Takes a Village” politics, 260
J. P. Morgan & Company, 201, 202
Japan, 80, 101–2, 215, 225
Japanese asset bubble, 1990, 174
Jeffries, Paul, 112
Joffe, Josef, 291–92, 294, 298, 301
Johnson, Lyndon, 260
Johnson, Neil F., 112, 113, 115, 157
Jordan, Thomas, 271
Josef, Franz, 36
JPMorgan Chase, 18, 19, 29, 30–31, 130, 142, 164, 264
Kahneman, Daniel, 10–11, 210
Kelly, George “Machine Gun,” 244
Kennedy, John F., 49
Keynes, John Maynard, 6–7, 41, 63, 67, 222, 229
Keynesianism/Neo-Keynesianism, 6, 14, 44, 206–7, 208, 222
King Dollar policy, 221–22
Kissinger, Henry, 84, 86, 277–78
Klein, Naomi, 89
Knickerbocker Trust, 34–35
Korea, 132, 215
Kos, Dino, 138–39
Krakatoa, 117
Krishnamachar, Arjun, 128
Krugman, Paul, 7
Lagarde, Christine, 55, 58, 104–5, 206, 207, 276–77
Laiki Bank, 25
land, investing in, 282, 283, 284
Laplace, Pierre-Simon, 12
Latin American debt crisis, 1982, 44, 45
leeuwendaalder (“lion dollar”), 60
Lehman Brothers, 35, 50, 119, 142, 145, 155, 167–68, 202
Lerner, Lois, 255
leverage
Long-Term Capital Management’s use of, 125, 129, 142
loosening of bank capital requirements and, 155–56
massive losses potentially resulting from minute market moves due to, 150
SEC allows mortgage-backed securities as collateral for, 156
Levitt, Arthur, 151
Lew, Jack, 104
Lewis, Michael, 126
Liar’s Poker (Lewis), 126
Liberal Fascism (Goldberg), 257
Libya, 86
Lind, Dara, 250–51
linked complexity, 276–77
Lipsky, John, 278
Lipton, David, 32–33
Liu, Wenjian, 250
lockdown of markets. See ice-nine freezing or lockdown of markets and
long-short strategies, 287
Long-Term Capital Management, 20, 45–46, 118–50, 174
belief in tenets of modern finance of, 123–24
complexity theory view of derivatives risk of, 148–49
computers and modeling underlying strategies of, 123–24, 127
emergence and, 145
failure to raise capital privately, in August 1998, 136–37
formation of, 123–24
Goldman Sachs/AIG/Buffett rival bid to rescue, 120, 140–41
Goldman Sachs hired as bankers to raise cash for, 138
investors in, 123
Italian government debt position of, 127–28
JPMorgan offer to buy 50% of, 130
lessons learned from, 142–49
leverage strategies of, 125, 129, 142
mergers and acquisitions arbitrage of, 128–30
participants in rescue of, 120–21
partners’ strategy to push out original investors of, 130–31
returns to investors, from 1994 through 1997, 125–26
risk-free arbitrage strategy of, 124–25
Russian default, losses following, 135–38
talent working for, 123
Wall Street Consortium bailout of, 45–46, 139–40, 141, 142
wedding cake technique for neutralizing swap positions of, 149
Weill/Salomon’s unwinding of spread positions, impact of, 133–34
Lorenz, Edward, 96, 97, 101, 106
Los Alamos National Laboratory, 13, 93–95, 98–99
Louvre Accord, 1987, 221–22
Lovett, Robert S., 257
Lowenstein, Roger, 121
Macao, 76–77
McAdoo, William, 37
McCain, John, 165, 167, 168
McCraw, Thomas, 234
McEntee, Jim, 135
McKittrick, Thomas, 65
Malkiel, Burton G., 112
Malta, 76–77
Manhattan Project, 93, 94
marijuana, 245
“On Market Timing and Investment Performance: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts” (Merton), 288
mark-to-market accounting, 171
martial law, 49–50
Marx, Karl, 14, 234, 235
mean reversion, 107
Mellon, Andrew, 18
Menger, Carl, 1, 234
mercantilism, 215–16
Meriwether, John, 119, 121, 122, 123, 126–27, 133, 137, 139, 153
Merkel, Angela, 25
Merrill Lynch, 160, 164
Merrill Lynch Investment Management, 17
Merton, Robert C., 123, 208, 288
MetLife Insurance, 19, 265
Mexican peso crisis of 1994, 44, 45, 174
Meyer, Eugene, 257
MF Global, 120
middle class (bourgeoisie), 236–39
militarization of police, 243, 245–53
Milken Institute Global Conference, 57
Mill, John Stuart, 14
Minsky, Hyman, 234
Mishkin, Rick, 181–82
MIT, 207
A Monetary History of the United States (Friedman), 66
monetarists/monetarism, 6, 7–8, 14, 44, 206, 208, 222
money
forms of, 59
gold as, 59–60, 61
printing (See money printing)
silver as, 60–61
world money agenda (See world money agenda)
money market funds, rule allowing suspension of redemptions of, 27
money printing
financial panics, as response to, 21–22, 24
post-Bretton Woods (1971 to present), 44–49
warnings of increasing financial risk du
e to, 47–49
money riots, 51–54
Mongol Empire, 83
Monopoly, 227
Monte Carlo simulation, 184
Morgan, J. Pierpont, 35, 59
Morgan, Jack, 63, 201
Morgan Stanley, 164, 264
Morgenthau, Henry, 41
Morris, Ian, 176
mortgage-backed securities, 156
“A Mountain, Overlooked: How Risk Models Failed Wall St. and Washington” (Rickards), 169–70
Mount Weather, Virginia government site, 51–53
Mozer, Paul, 122
Mullins, David, Jr., 123, 151
Murdoch, Rupert, 57
Murray, Charles, 238
Mussolini, Benito, 256, 257, 258, 265
Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), 94–95
Napoleonic Wars, 202–3
National Defense Authorization Act, 245
National Industrial Recovery Act of 1933, 259
National Recovery Administration (NRA), 259
natural disasters, 200
near field communication (NFC), 255
negative interest rates, 28–30, 199
Neo-Keynesians. See Keynesian/Neo-Keynesian
netting centers, 73
New Madrid Seismic Zone, 116
Newton, Isaac, 6, 211
new world order. See world order
New York Civil Liberties Union, 254
New York Curb, 38
New York Stock Exchange closing, in Panic of 1914, 37–38
New York Times, The, 38, 123, 219
9/11 attacks, 90, 264
Nixon, Richard, 23, 61, 67, 193, 251, 260
Nixon administration, 245
No Child Left Behind law, 260
Nolan, Dave, 186
nonbank SIFIs, 19–23
normal distribution (bell-curve), 210–11
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), 216, 222, 228–29
nuclear weapons technology and testing, 93–95, 98–99
Obama, Barack, 25, 49, 89, 167, 168, 171, 229, 245, 260
Obama administration, 18, 171
Obamacare, 262
Office of Financial Research (OFR), 48, 172–74
Old Man and the Sea, The (Hemingway), 172
Open Society and Its Enemies, The (Popper), 91
Open Society Foundations, 91
order, 84–85
ordered pattern, 113
orderly liquidation provision, of Dodd-Frank Act, 171–72
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 75, 79
Ottoman Empire, 84, 204
output gap, 224–25
Palin, Sarah, 168
Palley, Thomas I., 205, 218
Palmer, A. Mitchell, 258
Palmer Raids, 258
Panama Papers, 78
Panic of 1907, 34–35
Panic of 1914, 35–38
causes of, 35–36
The Road to Ruin Page 37
