gold’s role in, 36–37, 38
New York Stock Exchange’s closing during, 37–38
Panic of 1998
Asia-Russia financial crisis, 44, 45, 132–33, 135, 174
lessons of and policy choices that should have resulted from, 149–56
Long-Term Capital Management, collapse of (See Long-Term Capital Management [LTCM])
Panic of 2008, 20, 22, 35, 44, 47, 157–75, 227, 260
author’s advice to McCain campaign during, 165–67
author’s complexity theory analysis of, published in The Washington Post, 169–70
author warns U.S. Treasury of potential systemic collapse, 160–63
Bear Stearns, collapse of, 164
Bear Stearns hedge funds, collapse of, 159–60, 174
Bernanke/Federal Reserve ignorance of impending crisis, 160
derivatives gross notional value, increase in from 2001 to 2007, 159
Dodd-Frank Act passed in response to, 171–72, 264
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac illiquidity crisis during, 165
FSOC and OFR created to address systemic risk following, 172–74
General Electric credit collapse during, 19
increased scale of, compared to Panic of 1998, 157–58
Lehman Brothers, bankruptcy of, 167–68
Paulson’s bait-and-switch use of TARP funds and, 170–71
sovereign wealth funds and foreign banks as initial bailout source during, 163–64
Super-SIV facility plan, abandonment of, 163
TARP legislation, initial rejection and subsequent passage of, 168–69, 170
unemployment and, 170
paramilitary-style police raids, 246
path dependence, 13, 103, 148
Patriot Act, 90, 264
Paulson, Hank, 50, 163, 164, 168, 170–71
Peace of Westphalia, 1648, 82, 203
People’s Bank of China, 199, 271
peso, 174
Petraeus, David, 243
Picasso, 282–83, 284
piecemeal social engineering, 91
Piketty, Thomas, 79
PIMCO, 32
Plaza Accord, 1985, 221–22
Plosser, Charles, 179
police state, in United States, 241–55
criminalization of everyday behavior and, 243–45
digitization of surveillance and, 243, 254–55
militarization of police and, 243, 245–53
politicization of justice and, 243, 245
Police State U.S.A. (Chumley), 252
policing for profit, 252
Polischuk, Christina, 16
politicization of justice and, 243, 245
“Poorer than Their Parents” (McKinsey Global Institute study), 236–38
Popper, Karl, 58, 91, 235
portfolio for weathering coming collapse, 282–90
angel investing, 285
art, investing in, 282–83, 284–85
bonds, investing in, 285
family business, investing in, 285, 289
gold, investing in, 282–84
hedge funds, avoidance of, 286–87
land, investing in, 282, 283, 284
long-short strategies, 287
private equity funds, avoidance of, 286
stocks, investing in, 285–86
venture capital investing, 285
Posse Comitatus Act, 245
Praetorian Guard, 241–42
President’s Working Group (PWG), 151, 172
Principles of Political Economy and Taxation (Ricardo), 211
prior, 184–85
private equity funds, 286
Proclamation 2039, 40
Proclamation 7463, 49
progressives, 257
“Proposal to Obtain and Manage Information in Response to Capital Markets Crisis” (Rickards), 161
protectionism, 214–15
Prudential Insurance, 19, 265
public-private partnerships, 258
Qing dynasty, 84
quantitative easing, 182, 183–84
quantity theory of money, 66–67
Rainer, Bill, 155
raison d’etat, 82, 203
Ramos, Rafael, 250
Rand Corporation, 94
random outcomes, 103
random walk model, 112–15
rational expectations theory, 209–10
Raven of Zurich, The (Somary), 2, 92
Raven Rock Mountain, Pennsylvania government site, 51, 52–53
Reagan, Ronald, 49, 67–68, 277–78
Reagan administration, 245
real (Spanish dollar), 60
recency bias, 290
Refco, 162
Reinhart, Vincent, 170
Report on Manufacturers (Hamilton), 219
repurchase agreements, 125
Rhodes, Bill, 120, 121
Ricardo, David, 14, 208, 211, 212, 213, 214, 226–27
Rickards, Ali, 16
Rise of the Warrior Cop (Balko), 246–47
risk
in derivatives’ gross notional value, 142–49, 150, 157–58
value at risk (VaR) theory, 8, 143
Roberts, Brian, 57
Rogoff, Kenneth, 30
Roman Empire, 81, 242, 297, 298
Roosevelt, Franklin D., 39–40, 51, 64, 182, 183, 256, 257, 259–60, 262
Roosevelt (Franklin D.) administration, 18, 232
Rosenfeld, Eric, 136
Royal Knight, 253
Rubin, Robert, 45, 67, 149–53, 152–53, 155, 206, 207, 222, 277–78
ruble, 135, 174
Russia, 83, 135, 174, 223, 240
Russo-Japanese War of 1905, 204
Ryan, Paul, 70–71
SAFE, 188
Salomon Brothers, 122, 133
Samuelson, Paul, 208
Sanders, Bernie, 238
“Sanjak Railway, The (Somary), 2–3
savings and loan crisis, 1980s, 154
scale, in complexity theory, 145
Schiffman, Stephanie, 190
Scholes, Myron, 123, 131, 136, 153, 208
Schumpeter, Joseph, 1, 3, 6, 14, 231–41, 266
on capitalism’s demise, 239–40, 261, 263–64
on creative destruction, 217, 231–34, 235
on democracy, 238
education and background of, 235
on free trade dysfunctions, 217
as Historical school adherent, 234–35
socialism will supplant capitalism prediction of, 235–40, 261
as supporter of monopoly big business, 232–33
Schwartz, Alan, 164
Schwartz, Anna Jacobson, 66, 179–80, 185
scientific method, 5
SDRs. See special drawing rights (SDRs)
Second World War, 40, 65, 202–3, 204
sector rotation, 287
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
broker-dealer capital rules, revision of, 156
mortgage-backed securities allowed as collateral for leverage by, 156
rule allowing money market funds to suspend investor redemptions passed by, 27
Sedition Act of 1918, 257–58
Shanghai Accord, 101–5
Sheng, Andrew, 87–88
shock doctrine, 88–91, 260, 280
Shock Doctrine, The (Klein), 89
SIBS (systemically important banks), 19
SIFIs (systemic important financial institutions), 18–19
Silber, William L., 38
silver, 60
Silverglate, Harvey, 243, 245
Skadden A
rps, 142
smartphone GPS signaling of location data, 255
Smith, Adam, 14, 213, 226–27
Smith, Al, 259
Smithsonian Agreement, 61
Smoot-Hawley tariffs, 220
socialism, 232, 235–40
fascism, distinguished, 264
Schumpeter’s prediction of capitalism being supplanted by, 235–40, 261
Solow, Robert, 234
Somary, Felix, 1–4, 92, 277
Sorkin, Andrew Ross, 118
Soros, George, 58, 70, 91, 137
Spain, 51
Spanish dollar (real), 60
special drawing rights (SDRs), 53, 61, 68–71, 90
Chinese yuan added as reference currency for, 70–71, 279
creation of, 68–71
issuances of, 69
lack of backing for, 68–69
private SDR market, proposal for, 280
role in next crisis of, 69–70
Spector, Warren, 141
SPECTRE (movie; book, Fleming), 55–56
stagnationism, 239–40
Stalin, Joseph, 240, 256, 257
State, The (Wilson), 256
state of emergency, 49
State Street Research, 17
static comparative advantage, 214–15
Steil, Benn, 41
Stein, Jeremy, 178–79, 181–82, 199
sterling
devaluation of, in crisis of 1967, 42
dollar’s supplanting of, as reserve currency, 200–202
Stettinius, Edward, Sr., 257
Stiglitz, Joseph, 7, 79
stimulus spending package, of 2009, 89–90
stock market crash, of 1987, 4, 24, 151, 174
stocks, investing in, 285–86
stop-and-frisk tactics, 247–51
“Stop and Seize” (The Washington Post), 252
strange attractor, 148
Strauss, Tom, 122
Strauss-Kahn, Dominique, 206
stress tests, 40
Studies in Intelligence, 158–59
Sullivan & Cromwell, 140–41
Sumitomo, 128
Summers, Larry, 30, 121, 149–51, 152–53, 155, 206
Sun Valley Conference, 57
Super-SIV (special investment vehicle), 163
Surowiecki, James, 273
suspicious activity report (SAR), 34
swaps, 125, 151–53. See also derivatives
asset, 179
Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 repeal of regulation of, 154–55
equity basket, 129
Greenspan’s view of, 151–52
SWAT teams, 245
Sweden, 225
Swiss franc shock of 2015, 270–71
Swiss National Bank, 29–30, 270–71
Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916, 84
Syria, 86
Taibbi, Matt, 248–50
Taiwan, 215
Taleb, Nassim, 288
taler, 60
tariffs, 219–20
TARP legislation, 168–69, 170
tax deferral, 74
tax havens, 76–77, 78
tax leasing, 74
Taylorism, 258
Tea Party, 245, 255
Telegraph, The, 271
Temasek, 164
Tennessee Valley Authority, 259
ten-year Treasury bonds, 195–96, 269–70
Tequila crisis (Mexican peso crisis of 1994), 44, 45, 174
Tesla, 255
Tett, Gillian, 127
Thailand, 132
Thain, John, 168
Thirty Years War, 82, 202–3
Three Felonies a Day: How the Feds Target the Innocent (Silverglate), 243
Thunderball (movie; book, Fleming), 55
Time, 150
TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities), 195–96
Tohoku earthquake, 276
Too Big to Fail (Sorkin), 118
too-low-for-too-long interest rate policy, 228
Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917, 50, 259
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), 228–29
transfer pricing, 73
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), 228–29
Travelers Group, 133–34, 154
Treaty of Peace. See Treaty of Versailles
Treaty of Versailles, 1919, 83, 84, 203
Treaty of Westphalia, 203
Trichet, Jean-Claude, 206
Triffin, Robert, 69, 197
Triffin’s dilemma, 69, 197
triggers for next financial crisis, 176–204
bad debts as, 197–99
currency wars as, 199
deflation as, 199
exogenous threats, 199–200
gold as, 186–94
natural disasters as, 200
Trump, Donald J., 207
Tugwell, Rexford Guy, 259
Tversky, Amos, 210
Twitter, 262
Type 1 crisis, 225
Type 2 crisis, 225
Type 3 crisis, 226, 229
Uber, 233, 263
UBS, 119, 131
Ukraine, 86
Ulam, Stanislaw, 97
Uluburun shipwreck, 296–97
Umayyad Caliphate, 84
United Nations, 83, 86
Framework Convention on Climate Change, 86
world money plan of, 87–88
United States, 83, 226
Continuity of Operations Plan and, 52–53
debt-to-GDP ratio of, 42
economic growth, in 1980s and 1990s, 67
fascism in, 256–60
FATCA global tax compliance provisions of, 78–79
government sites for emergency relocation of government of, 51–52
police state, rise of, 241–55
Shanghai Accord and, 101–2
under state of emergency, 49–51
tariffs to catalyze job growth for, case for, 219–20
trade policy of, 214–15, 216
United States v. Darby Lumber Co., 244
University of Chicago, 207
U.S. Treasury
gold holdings of, 64
ignores author’s warning of impending crisis, 2007, 162–63
Office of Financial Research warning of increasing financial risk, 48
USA Patriot Act, 90, 264
value-added taxes (VATs), 79–80
value at risk (VaR) theory, 8, 143
venture capital investing, 285
video scanners, 254–55
virtual warfare, 85–86
viruses (digital), 85
Volcker, Paul, 67, 222, 277–78
Volcker Rule, 171
Volkswagen, 255
von Hötzendorf, Franz Conrad, 36
Vonnegut, Kurt, 15, 22–23
von Neumann, John, 97
wage and price controls, 260
Wall Street Journal, The, 29, 183
War Industries Board (WIB), 257
war on drugs, 245, 251, 253
war on terror, 245, 253
Washington Consensus, 222
Washington Mutual, 30–31
Washington Post, The, 30, 169, 170, 252, 253
“Waste Land, The” (Eliot), 53–54
Weber, Max, 234
Weill, Sandy, 133, 134, 154
Wells Fargo, 30, 264
Wendland, Beverly, 186
West Coast Hotel v. Parrish, 244
Westphalian system, 82–83
When Genius Failed (Lowenstein), 121
When Washing
ton Shut Down Wall Street (Silber), 38
White, Harry Dexter, 41
Williamson, John, 222
Wilson, Woodrow, 256, 257–58, 259–60
wisdom of crowds, 273
Wolfe, Tom, 126
World Bank, 83, 279
world money, 59–71
dollar standard and, 67
fiat money and, 61, 68
gold as, 59–66
helicopter money theory and, 67
quantity theory of money and, 66–67
special drawing rights (SDRs) as, 53, 68–71
world order, 81–89, 202–4
Bronze Age, 297, 298
Carolingian Renaissance, 81–82
climate change as platform for elite’s implementation of, 86–87
digital threats and, 85–86
history as guide to future of, 296–98
Holy Roman Empire, 82
Islamic caliphates, 83–84
Mongol Empire, 83
physical warfare and, 86
piecemeal social engineering and, 91
post-Second World War US-Russia hegemony, 83
Roman, 81, 297, 298
shock doctrine and, 88–91
systemic scale, importance of, 203
United Nations money plan for, 87–88
Westphalian system, 82–83
World Order (Kissinger), 84
world taxation, 72–81
BEPS (Base Erosion and Profit Shifting) enforcement plan for, 75–78
corporate tax avoidance mechanisms and, 72–74
FATCA and, 78–79
information-sharing requests and, 77
value-added taxes (VATs) and, 79–80
world tax database and, 77
world tax database, 77
World Trade Organization, 215, 216
World War I. See First World War
World War II. See Second World War
Wriston, Walter, 72
Yellen, Janet, 30, 104, 178, 180–81, 186
yuan
added as reference currency for SDRs, 70–71, 279
devaluation of, in 2015, 271–72
Zames, Matt, 123
Zeihan, Peter, 291, 292–93, 294, 298, 301
zero interest rate policy, 180–81, 228
What’s next on
your reading list?
Discover your next
great read!
* * *
Get personalized book picks and up-to-date news about this author.
Sign up now.
The Road to Ruin Page 38
