The Human Tide
Page 38
40. Guardian, 13 February 2010, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/feb/13/climate-change-family-size-babies (impression: 21 August 2017).
41. UN Population Division, 2017 Revisions.
42. Ibid.
43. Coleman.
44. Passell et al.
45. Daily Telegraph, 18 July 2017, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/07/17/life-expectancy-stalls-britain-first-time-100-years-dementia/(impression: 20 August 2017); Atlantic, 13 December 2016, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/why-are-so-many-americans-dying-young/510455/(impression: 20 August 2017).
46. Professional Pensions, 1 March 2018, https://www.professionalpensions.com/professional-pensions/news-analysis/3027631/latest-cmi-model-reveals-clear-trend-in-life-expectancy (impression: 1 May 2018).
47. Politicos, 8 February 2018, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/02/08/why-young-americans-having-less-sex-216953 (impression: 16 February 2018).
Appendix I: How Life Expectancy is Calculated
1. http://www.singstat.gov.sg/docs/default-source/default-document-library/publications/publications_and_papers/births_and_deaths/lifetable15-16.pdf (impression: 15 November 2017).
Appendix II: How the Total Fertility Rate is Calculated
1. https://www.measureevaluation.org/prh/rh_indicators/family-planning/fertility/total-fertility-rate (impression: 20 November 2017).
Index
abortion: in Cuba, 259; laws relaxed, 142; legalised in Soviet Russia, 123, 168; in Romania, 188; Russian rates reduced after Soviet era, 180
Acton, William, 75
Afghanistan: birth and death rates, 30; fertility rate, 21, 262–4; life expectancy, 265–6; median age, 166; migration to Europe, 245; militants, 20; population growth, 166, 171–2; Russian war in, 165–6
Africa: birth and death rates, 30; British imperialism in, 60; demographic trends, 273–4; emigration to Europe, 280; fertility rates, 269–71; losses from slave-trading, 271; median age, 270; population growth, 14–15, 271–2; prospective rise to power, 162; sub-Saharan, 267, 271, 281; urbanisation, 280
age: and behaviour, 16–17, 275–6; and welfare provision, 276–8
ageing, 148–52
Agincourt, Battle of (1415), 19
Aids: in southern Africa, 268–9
Albania, 189
Albanians: in Serbia, 27
Albert, Prince Consort, 76
Albrecht, Hans, 93
Alexander the Great, 19
Alexandra, Queen of Edward VII, 71
Algeria: Europeans in, 31, 227–8; population growth, 230
Alliance National pour l’Accroissement de la Population Française, 121
Allon, Yigal, 252
Americas, the: migration to, 108; see also Latin America; United States of America
Andrew, Prince, Duke of York, 132
Andrillon, Henri: The Expansion of Germany, 69, 117–18
Andropov, Yuri, 164
Anglo-Saxons: as emigrants, 64, 70; population expansion, 279; proportionate decline, 278
Anne, Princess Royal, 132
Anne, Queen of Great Britain, 12–13
anti-Semitism, 112, 115
Arab Spring, 224, 242
Arab world: conflict with Israel, 245–6, 249; economic and social problems, 237–41
Arafat, Yasser, 250
Argentina: as advanced country, 257; European immigrants, 87, 108, 110, 259; life expectancy, 257
Armenians: genocide, 227
Asia: emigrants, 118; individual countries’ populations, 222; median age, 274; mortality rates decline, 222
Asquith, Herbert Henry, 1st Earl, 75–6, 90
Asquith, Margot, Countess, 75
Austen, Jane: heroines, 4, 130
Australia: baby boom, 136; colonisation, 46, 58–9, 61, 63; European and aboriginal population, 13, 58–9, 61; fertility rate, 144; food production, 44, 61; Irish immigrants, 137; low population increase, 119; origins of immigrants, 156, 160; and threat of Japanese incursion, 116–17; white Australia policy, 117–18, 160
Austria-Hungary: emigration numbers, 109; large family size, 86
Azerbaijan, 171, 180
baby boom and boomers (post Second World War): in Japan, 204; in West, 132, 135–42
Balfour Declaration (1917), 249
Bangkok Post, 223
Bangladesh: fertility rate, 263; numbers of children born, 16
Barclay, James, 89
Bazalgette, Sir Joseph, 48
Belgium: migrants in France, 121
Ben-Gurion, David, 248
Benelux countries: small populations, 95
Benjamin, Walter, 111
Berlin: growth, 81
Berlin, Sir Isaiah, 111
Bernstein, Leonard, 275
Besant, Annie, 74, 107
Bessemer, Henry, 55
Bethmann-Hollweg, Theobald von, 69, 94
birth control see contraception
birth rate: effect on demography, 29–31; global fall, 266–7
Bismarck, Prince Otto von, 78, 152
Black Death, 10, 43, 197
Boer War: fought between Europeans, 195; physical weakness of British recruits, 89
Bollywood, 24
Booth, General William, 90
Bosnia-Herzegovina, 189–90
Boswell, James, 133
Botswana: fertility rate, 268
Bouazizi, Mohamed, 224
Boxer Rebellion (1899–1900), 210
Bradlaugh, Charles, 74, 107
Braudel, Fernand, 57
Brazil: demographic data, 257; fertility rates, 258–9; immigration numbers fall, 110; urbanisation, 257–8
Brexit, 25–6, 29, 159
Brezhnev, Leonid, 176, 183
Britain (and United Kingdom): birth rate, 29, 88; and Brexit vote, 25–6, 29, 159; centenarians, 148–9; class/ethnic differences in birth rates, 90–1; concern over quality of population, 89; decline of empire, 126–7, 161–2; demographic changes, 14–15; and demographic trends in colonies, 117; development of economic power, 22–3, 42, 51, 55–7, 95; emigrant numbers (late nineteenth century), 77; ethnic composition, 25–6, 156–8; and expansion of empire, 57; and falling European birth rates, 120; falling fertility rate, 88–9, 104, 111–12, 144, 267; German rivalry with, 94; immigration, 17, 26; and immigration policy in colonies, 117–19; life expectancy, 281; lower marriage age, 47; migrants in USA, 67; old people, 276; origins of immigrants, 156–7; out-of-marriage births, 146, 204; populates overseas colonial empire, 17, 41, 46–7, 57–62, 68, 109; population growth in nineteenth century, 42, 51, 56–7, 71, 86, 95; post Second World War baby boom, 137; recruitment and manpower in First World War, 97–8; rivalry with USA, 83; slowing birth rate, 89–90; social welfare, 151; urban living, 105; voting behaviour by age, 138–9; see also England
British Gynaecological Society, 88
Brunel, Isambard Kingdom, 48
Bulgaria: fertility rate, 148; median age, 191; population decline, 190, 279
Burgess, Anthony, 102
Burma (Myanmar), 126
Bush, George W., 269
Bush, Jeb, 156
Caesar, Julius, 12
California: ethnic composition, 155
Camus, Albert: La Peste, 229
Canada: anti-Asian immigration laws, 117; baby boom, 136; Catholic French Canadians, 144; European population and colonisation, 13, 46–7, 58–60, 62; fertility rate, 144; food production and exports, 44, 61; immigrants, 108, 110, 156; indigenous population, 60; see also Quebec
carbon emissions: and population size, 277
Caribbean region: fertility rates, 354; immigrants in Britain, 157; population growth, 260
Carlile, Richard, 74
Casals, Pablo, 111
Catholics: family size, 81–2, 137, 146; fertility rates, 142, 146, 148; in Latin America, 262; policy on abortion and contraception, 124, 136, 139–40, 232; and Quebecois fertility, 136; US immigration restrictions on, 108; women practise birth control, 142
Caucasus: M
uslims massacred, 227; unrest, 177
Ceausescu, Nicolae, 187–8
censuses: as source of data, 34
centenarians, 148–9, 208
Central African Republic: infant mortality, 270
Chamberlain, Basil Hall, 200
Chamberlain, Houston Stewart, 200
Charles, Prince of Wales, 132
Chechens: in Russia, 27, 184–5
Chen Muhua, 216
Chernenko, Konstantin, 164
Chernobyl nuclear disaster, 165
Chesterton, G. K., 112
children: neglected, 3–4; numbers born, 16; see also infant mortality
China: abortion policy, 259; ageing population, 266; agricultural policies, 214; contraception in, 216; demographic change under Mao, 213–15; famine, 213; fertility rate, 213, 215–16, 219–20; historical demography, 211–12; historical disruptions, 197; industrialisation and modernisation, 210, 216; life expectancy, 219; low emigration, 212; median age, 219; One Child Policy, 216–18, 220–1, 265; in Opium Wars, 210; People’s Republic formed (1949), 211; personal savings and lack of old-age provision, 220; population size and growth, 196, 210, 217, 219–21, 261; rise to power, 129, 162, 210–11; sex imbalance, 220; size of economy, 23–4, 55, 162; slow industrial development, 95
cholera: effects, 48; outbreaks, 72
Churchill, Winston S., 89
Circassians, 227
cities: growth, 67; see also urbanisation
civilisations (cultural–ethnic): demographic patterns, 187
Clausewitz, Karl Marie von, 20
Clinton, Hillary, 25, 142
Communists: murders by, 122
conflict: within states, 28
Congo, Democratic Republic of the: fertility rate, 270; instability, 242
contraception, 73–4, 90, 107, 123, 133–4, 141
contraceptive pill, 9–10, 74, 139–42
Côte d’Ivoire, 271
Croats: in Balkan conflicts, 190
crop yields, 277–8
Cruz, Ted, 156
Cuba: fertility rates, 259; Soviet-style policies, 178
Czech Republic, 189
Daily Mail: on declining British birth rate, 69, 89
data, 33–5
Davy, Sir Humphry, 55
death rate: effect on demography, 29–31; global fall, 104, 107–8, 266; and life expectancy, 33
demographic transition: in Japan, 196–7, 199; Notestein on, 132, 135; and population stabilisation, 111; in Russia, 167; second, 141–2; in USA, 140
demography: and future, 273–82; and history, 29; and Human values, 36–7; natural causes and effects, 236; recent changes, 5–6; technological and social effects on, 281
Denmark: fertility rate, 147; population increase, 51
Dennery, Étienne: Asia’s Teeming Millions and its Problems for the West, 117
Dickens, Charles, 53, 149
dictatorships: and population policy, 122–4
disease: control of, 73; spread by air travel, 18
Disney, Walt, 102
Djerassi, Carl, 139
Douglas-Home, Sir Alec, 132
East, Edward M.: Mankind at the Crossroads, 115–16
economy (national): and population size, 21–5
education: in Arab world, 238–9; of women, 140–1, 167, 216, 244
Edward VII, King of Great Britain, 71, 91
Edward, Prince: birth, 132–3, 137
Egypt (ancient): slow population growth, 74
Egypt (modern): fertility rate, 230, 289–90; life expectancy, 181; political instability, 242; population changes, 225, 229–30; receives outside aid, 235, 238; self-rule, 127; unrest in, 247
Eisenhower, Dwight D., 82
Elizabeth II, Queen of Great Britain: birth, 12; and centenarian subjects, 148–9; children, 132–3
Elizabeth, Queen of George VI, 12
El Salvador: median age, 16
empires: end, 161–2
Engels, Friedrich, 122
England (and Wales): birth and fertility rates, 47, 119; food production and supply, 44, 48; growth of manufacturing industry, 67; immigration, 45; industrial development, 41–2, 131; infant mortality rates, 49; life expectancy, 107; mortality rate falls, 47; population growth in nineteenth century, 26, 41–8; population under Tudors, 42–3; social conditions improve, 48; urbanisation, 50, 72; see also Britain
environment: effect of rising population on, 8
Eshkol, Levi, 248
Ethiopia: fertility rate, 269; median age, 275
ethnicity: and economic/political power, 25–9; white/coloured proportions, 278
eugenics, 89, 94, 113
Europe: baby boom in northern countries, 137, 144; emigration declines after First World War, 108–9; fertility rates and population growth decline, 111, 121, 126–7, 145, 147–8; historical dominance, 161, 279–80; internal migration, 110; median age and life expectancy, 150–1; and Middle East/North African immigration crisis, 236, 278; northern fertility rates, 137; origins of immigrants, 156; population growth, 30, 103; southern fertility rates, 145–6; youthful population before First World War, 99
European Union: and free trade, 56
extra-marital births, 146, 187, 204
family planning: government-funded, 23
family size: in developing Germany, 81; and female education, 140–1; and militancy, 21; reduced, 76
famines: in China, 215; in India, 261; in Ireland, 8, 53, 67; North Africa, 229; in Russia, 169
Fascism: rise of, 94
feminism: and demographic change, 9, 141–2; see also women
fertility rates: and birth rate, 32; calculation method, 289–90; and contraception, 134; decline in Europe, 104–7; global fall, 143–5; and replacement level, 104, 140; in rural areas, 106
Finland: migrants to USA sent back home, 109
First World War (1914–18): British recruitment, 97; and industrial production, 95; loss of young men, 101, 103, 109; and population numbers (manpower), 69, 94–5, 97–8
Fitzgerald, F. Scott: The Great Gatsby, 115
food prices: fall in Victorian times, 73
food production (global), 44; see also Malthus, Thomas
France: ethnic composition, 26; European immigrants, 110–11, 121, 158; fears German rivalry, 91–2; fertility rates, 105, 144–5; life expectancy increases, 107; little emigration, 50; manpower in First World War, 97; north African immigrants, 158; numbers of children born, 16; population compared with Germany, 79; pro-natalism and encouragement of fecundity in, 121; rural living conditions in eighteenth century, 4; rural remoteness, 76; size of economy, 56; slow population growth, 19, 50–1, 83, 86, 88, 120–1; slow urbanisation, 50
Franz Ferdinand, Archduke of Austria, 189
Freedom House, 241
French, Marilyn: The Women’s Room, 141
Freud, Sigmund, 111
Gaddafi, Muammar, 224
Gandhi, Indira, 142, 264
Gandhi, Sanjay, 264
Gaza: fertility rate, 249–50, 252; relations with Israel, 252–3
George III, King of Great Britain, 64
Germans: US immigrants, 65, 66, 92
Germany: birth rate, 30; Catholic–Protestant divide, 81; East and West merge, 189; Eastern birth rate falls, 186; economic size, 23, 78, 80; expansion, 69; family size, 81–2; fear of Russian power, 93–4, 98; fertility rates, 32–3, 104–5, 145, 148, 158, 231–2, 259; future population decline, 279; as goal for non-European immigrants, 245; immigrants, 82, 156, 158–9; increased life expectancy, 80–1; invades Soviet Russia, 127–8; Jews emigrate, 110–11, 125; life expectancy, 151; manpower in First World War, 97; median age, 207; old-age pensions, 152; orderly society, 242; political reaction to immigration, 159; population growth, 51, 79, 83, 86, 91–4, 104; population in Second World War, 129; post-war baby boom, 137; pro-natal movement, 125; rapid industrial development, 95; rivalry with Britain, 70–1, 78–9, 91, 94; rural large families, 81; territorial expansion and settlement (Lebensraum), 125–6; unified from smaller st
ates, 78–9; urbanisation, 81, 105
Goldstein, Ferdinand, 93
Gorbachev, Mikhail, 164–6
Granicus, Battle of (334 BC), 19
Grant, Madison: The Passing of the Great Race or the Racial Bias of European History, 114
Great Depression (1930s), 110, 133
Great Stink (London, 1858), 72
Greece: extra-marital births, 147; median age, 191
Gregory, John Walter: The Menace of Color, 115
Guatemala, 257
Guinea: death rate, 33; median age, 33
Haggard, Sir Henry Rider, 118–19
Haycraft, Dr John Berry: Darwinism and Race Progress, 89
Hayhoe, Aida, 76
Herzen, Alexander, 84
Hiroshima, 211
history: demography and, 29; shaping of, 6–7
Hitler, Adolf: and German war casualties, 126; Houston Stewart Chamberlain applauds, 200; military interference, 128; racial theories and German population, 100, 125–6, 127; and settlement of Ukraine, 202; war in Russia, 169
Holocaust, 8, 247–8
Honduras, 257
Hong Kong: life expectancy, 206
Howard, Michael, 111
Hu Yaobang, 216
Hughes, William, 117
Huguenots, 17
Human Development Index, 237
Ibn Khaldun, 20
Illustrated London News, 53
immigration: countries of origin, 156–9; effects, 153; into Europe from Middle East, 236; political reactions to, 159
Independent (newspaper), 155
India: British imperialism in, 60; emigrants, 118; famines, 261; fertility rates, 221, 262, 264, 265, 267; immigrants in UK, 157; independence, 127; life expectancy, 265; male life expectancy, 180; Muslims in, 231; population size, 24, 221, 261–2; size of economy, 23, 55, 266; sterilisation programme, 264–5
Indonesia: health care, 49; population size, 222; size of economy, 23
industrialisation: global spread, 22; rates of, 80
infant mortality: falls, 15–16, 72–3; historic, 3, 5, 8; in North Africa and Middle East, 230; in Russian central Asian republics, 171
infanticide: in China, 213; in Japan, 198, 213
Iran: fertility rates, 231, 234, 254; numbers of children born, 16; population policies, 233–4; status of women in, 234
Iraq: birth and death rates, 30; family size, 21, 230; median age, 225; militants, 20
Ireland: death and birth rates, 30; emigration, 46, 53, 59, 77, 109, 137; famine, 8, 53, 67; high fertility rate, 137, 148; importance of potato in, 52; nationalism and home rule, 54; population fall in Victorian age, 54; population growth, 52; separation from Britain, 127